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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                              NOVEMBER, 2002

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  SPECIAL NOTE:  There has been a change in the address of one of the
  archival sites where back issues of the monthly summaries and track
  files are catalogued.   Chris Landsea has moved the files he was
  previously archiving on a computer at TPC/NHC to a machine at AOML/HRD.
  The address is:>


                           NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS
  --> Northwest Pacific remains quiet--only one tropical cyclone
  --> Southwest Indian Ocean season gets underway
  --> Two tropical cyclones in Bay of Bengal--one deadly


               ***** Feature of the Month for November *****


     This monthly feature is the third in a series highlighting some of the
  papers presented at the recent AMS 25th Conference on Hurricanes and
  Tropical Meteorology in San Diego, California.  As previously explained,
  three of the papers really excited me as they introduced new and
  innovative solutions to some of the problematic issues and challenges
  facing tropical cyclone forecasters today.  The first of these I covered
  in the July, 2002, summary--Track Forecasting with a Kilo-member
  Ensemble, presented by Jonathan Vigh, a graduate research student at
  Colorado State University.  The August, 2002, summary featured the
  Cyclone Phase Space technique developed by Bob Hart and Jenni Evans
  of Pennsylvania State University.

     The third and final feature in this series highlights the Advanced
  Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT).  A paper on this topic was presented
  at the San Diego conference by Tim Olander of the University of
  Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
  (UW-CIMSS), and had been authored by Tim, Chris Velden, also of UW-CIMSS,
  and Mike Turk of the NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch in Washington,
  DC.  This paper will look at the following topics:

    . Introduction to Dvorak satellite analysis
    . Operational usage and feedback
    . Additions and improvements toward the development of the AODT
    . Future plans

  A. Introduction to Dvorak Satellite Analysis

     A method of utilizing satellite imagery for estimating tropical
  cyclone intensity was first developed by Vern Dvorak in the early
  1970s, and later expanded and refined in 1984.   The Dvorak Technique
  (DT) has been the mainstay of tropical cyclone forecasters and
  researchers for estimating tropical cyclone intensity for many years.
  The DT was more or less "calibrated" with aircraft reconnaissance
  measurements of central pressure and estimates of MSW obtained from
  missions flown into Atlantic tropical cyclones.   As useful as it
  is, the DT has some weaknesses also.  First of all, as already noted,
  it was based upon reconnaissance flights into storms in one basin only,
  leaving questions about its validity for accurately estimating cyclone
  intensity in other regions since tropical cyclones in each basin often
  display unique features and characteristics.

     Secondly, the technique depends somewhat upon human interpretation
  of convective cloud patterns; hence, it is inherently subjective.  For
  instance, TPC/NHC routinely utilizes satellite estimates from three
  independent agencies, and often all three do not agree on the final
  T-number.   And lastly, once a final Dvorak rating is assigned to a
  cyclone, the matching intensity represents an average MSW for storms
  having that particular T-number.   For example, it's rather elementary
  to even say so, but just because all analysts may agree that a Dvorak
  rating of T7.0 best fits a given cyclone, that doesn't mean its MSW is
  guaranteed to be exactly 140 kts.

     To help ameliorate some of the subjectivity inherent with manual
  Dvorak analysis, work was begun years ago to develop a more purely
  objective technique.  Ray Zehr of Colorado State University did some
  work toward this end as far back as the 1980s, and during the 1990s the
  current Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT) was developed by Chris Velden
  and Tim Olander.  More detailed information on the ODT and its develop-
  ment can be found at the following URL:>

     The ODT utilizes many of the rules and guidelines described in the
  original, subjective DT, and comparisons between ODT estimates of central
  pressure with aircraft reconnaissance measurements have shown that the
  ODT performance is commensurate with the operational intensity estimates
  obtained using the manual DT methodology.    However, there have been
  isolated circumstances which have shown that further improvements are
  needed to the existing ODT in order to improve its accuracy over a wider
  variety of situations.     This new-and-improved ODT--the Advanced ODT 
  (AODT)--is based upon significant feedback from the ODT user community
  and ongoing advances in satellite remote sensing strategies.

  B. Operational Usage and Feedback

     The ODT has been utilized as a guidance tool for several years at many
  tropical cyclone warning centers worldwide, including SAB, JTWC, and TAFB
  (at TPC).    Based upon user feedback, at least two important areas of
  concern have been identified.  One concerns the accuracy of ODT intensity
  estimates for storms outside the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  regions.    The ODT was developed and tuned primarily against aircraft
  reconnaissance in situ measurements of Atlantic tropical cyclones.  Some
  calibration was also performed from Northwest Pacific reconnaissance
  measurements prior to the mid-1980s, but the corresponding satellite
  imagery during that period had inferior spatial and temporal resolution
  compared with today's imagery and may not have been sufficient for 
  precise ODT calibration in that region.  Current use and comparisons with
  subjective DT estimates have generally shown that the ODT provides 
  slightly stronger MSW estimates in the Northwest Pacific, but without
  aircraft reconnaissance in this region, it is difficult to verify whether
  the ODT estimates are an improvement or not.  The same situation is true
  for other tropical cyclone basins.

     The other weakness of the current ODT noted by users is the occasional
  premature triggering of the "rapid intensification" flag.   Built-in
  constraints to the standard DT often break down when a tropical cyclone
  is undergoing rapid intensification (RI), so a feature was incorporated
  into the ODT to accommodate rapidly intensifying cyclones.  The RI option
  adjusted the time averaging scheme when rapid cyclone deepening was
  suggested, and is triggered when two environmental eyewall temperature
  threshold values are exceeded.  These threshold values were determined
  empirically from a limited set of satellite images during Atlantic
  RI events.  Due to inherent differences between Atlantic and Northwest
  Pacific tropical cyclones and the small number of cases used to define
  the eyewall cloud temperature thresholds, it is suspected that the RI
  flag triggers too often in Pacific storms, leading to significant
  intensity overestimation in certain cases.

  C. Additions and Improvements Toward the Development of the AODT

     One primary focus of current research is to expand the ODT to include
  intensity estimates of storms of less than hurricane strength, i.e.,
  tropical storms and depressions.  The previous technique used temperature
  values only to estimate intensity--the eye temperature being the warmest
  value within 40 km of the center and the cloud region temperature the
  coldest temperature on the warmest ring (28-132 km).  The new AODT has
  introduced a scene identification scheme similar to that defined in the
  original DT in order to better estimate cyclone intensity and especially
  that of weaker systems.   Five eye classifications have been defined:
  clear eye, pinhole eye, large eye ( > than approximately 60-70 km in
  diameter), ragged eye, and obscured eye (as well as no eye).  Five cloud
  scene categories have also been introduced/redefined:  uniform CDO,
  embedded center, irregular CDO, curved band, and shear pattern.  The
  curved band and shear pattern identification routines allow for
  estimation of intensity at and below tropical storm strength while the
  irregular CDO pattern covers transition scenes between TD/TS and
  hurricane intensities.

     Some supplementary DT rules have been incorporated with the intro-
  duction of the new scene type classifications.  One such rule limits
  the change of intensity estimates over various time periods:  Rule 8
  within the original Dvorak technique.  This addition will reduce large,
  unrealistic intensity changes observed with the AODT during certain
  scene transitions, and will guide the AODT intensity estimates to those
  observed with the traditional Dvorak technique estimates.  Commensurate
  with this change, the time averaging scheme is now a 6-hour weighted

     Additional statistical analyses of the eye and surrounding cloud
  region temperature histograms have also been introduced to enhance the
  existing Fourier Transform analysis.     The eye region analysis and
  surrounding cloud region analysis now focus on the spread and symmetry
  of temperature measurements, i.e., mean temperatures, rather than simply
  the "coldest-warmest" temperature values used in the previous version.
  More emphasis is also being placed on the organization and coverage of
  the convective cloud region in relation to the storm center.   These
  new scene classifications lead to improved scene identification
  methodologies, which in turn should lead to more accurate intensity
  estimates over a wider range of tropical cyclone strengths.

     Several upgrades to the AODT have been incorporated in response to
  user feedback.  First, the curved band analysis routine has been adjusted
  to examine different convective cloud features in order to obtain more
  accurate intensity estimates.  An enhancement to the curved band analysis
  routine has also been added to determine the storm intensity at the user-
  selected storm center, and to also search for the storm center location
  where the maximum intensity estimate is found within the scene.  Finally,
  the ability of the AODT to run in a totally automated mode has been
  requested to help alleviate the time constraints of forecasters when
  operating the AODT, and to help further reduce/eliminate the subjectivity
  inherent to tropical cyclone center location determination.

     An important modification is the removal of the RI flag.  This
  removal was in response to user feedback and determination that the
  new AODT code sufficiently handles the analysis of such storms due to
  the addition/modification of various rules since the original ODT was
  independently analyzed at the various operational tropical cyclone
  forecasting centers.

     An additional upgrade regarding the AODT algorithm involves the actual
  programming code.  This is being done to make the AODT available to users
  beyond those with a McIDAS computing environment.  This transition has
  been successfully demonstrated operationally with the integration of the
  new code into the Navy TeraScan system for use at JTWC, and with inte-
  gration currently underway within the SIDAS at the Air Force Weather
  Agency and the N-AWIPS at TAFB.  Also, an X-Windows/Motif version of
  the AODT is under development and will be available for UNIX and LINUX-
  based systems.   This feature of the AODT significantly increases the
  size of the algorithm library, but allows for easier implementation of
  a platform-independent version.

  D. Future Plans

     Some features planned for future versions of the AODT include:

  (1) Exploration of additional infrared analysis techniques, such as
      removal of diurnal cloud temperature oscillations

  (2) Examination of additional geostationary satellite channels such as
      the water vapor channel and visible and shortwave infrared imagery

  (3) Integration of additional satellite information such as AMSU analysis
      and microwave imagery (TRMM, SSM/I) from polar-orbiting satellites

     The ultimate goal is to develop an advanced, expert system which
  fuses together unique observations from several different satellite-based

  E. Acknowledgements

     I would like to thank Chris Velden for giving me permission to feature
  the AODT, and also Tim Olander for sending me a copy of the Powerpoint
  slides he used in his briefing in San Diego.  The slides can be viewed
  at the following URL:>

     This feature was taken from the abstract included in the manual
  distributed to attendees of the 25th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and
  Tropical Meteorology along with more recent information obtained from
  Tim Olander and Chris Velden.   The entire paper was reviewed by Chris
  and Tim, and portions of the text were added by them.   Anyone who
  wishes may contact Tim and Chris by e-mail at the following addresses:

  Chris Velden:  [email protected]

  Tim Olander:  [email protected]

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

                  Atlantic Tropical Activity for November

     In contrast to November of 2001 when a record three hurricanes formed
  in the Atlantic basin, the month of November, 2002, was devoid of any
  tropical or subtropical cyclone activity.   A broad, non-tropical low-
  pressure system formed well over 1000 nm east-southeast of Bermuda on
  11 November and moved west-northwestward for a couple of days, generating
  gale-force winds mainly north of the center.  The STWOs from TPC/NHC
  on the 11th and 12th indicated that there was a possibility for some
  slow development, but this never materialized.    About a week later
  another disturbance formed several hundred miles northeast of Puerto
  Rico as the result of a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-
  level LOW, but again, no tropical or subtropical cyclone development


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 tropical depression

                       Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise

             Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November

     No named tropical storms or hurricanes developed in the Northeast
  Pacific basin during November.  Hurricane Huko, which had formed late in
  October in the Central Pacific, was active in the extreme western part of
  the basin before crossing the International Dateline on 3 November to
  become a typhoon.  As the month opened a broad zone of disturbed weather
  extended from the coast of Central America westward for several hundred
  miles.    A large tropical disturbance slowly took shape and posed a
  potential for developing into a tropical depression, but the broad center
  moved inland on the 3rd east of Manzanillo.   However, heavy rainfall and
  gusty winds affected portions of Mexico from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to
  Cabo Corrientes and extending well inland.

     Several days later another tropical disturbance appeared several
  hundred miles southeast of Acapulco and migrated westward.  By the 14th
  convection had become sufficiently organized that advisories were begun
  on Tropical Depression 16E.  The depression was centered about 475 nm
  south of Cabo San Lucas at 14/0000 UTC, and over the next couple of days
  moved on a slow, generally westward track.   Strong upper-level south-
  westerlies created hostile shearing conditions over the depression, and
  after reaching a peak intensity of 30 kts, the system began to weaken.
  The final advisory on TD-16E was issued at 0000 UTC on 16 November and
  placed the convection-free center about 600 nm south-southwest of Cabo
  San Lucas.  The discussion bulletin noted that shear over the LLCC was
  on the order of 70-80 kts.


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 typhoon

                         Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.

               Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October

     On 3 November Central Pacific Hurricane Huko crossed the International
  Dateline, moving west-northwestward in the direction of Wake Island.  The
  typhoon subsequently passed just north of the island, later recurving on
  a fairly smooth parabolic track and heading eastward back toward the
  Dateline.  The complete report on Hurricane/Typhoon Huko can be found in
  the October summary.

     The only other tropical system to be warned on by any of the Northwest
  Pacific warning centers was Typhoon Haishen.   This cyclone formed south-
  east of Guam and moved westward, passing south of the island as it
  reached tropical storm intensity.    Haishen later strengthened into a
  typhoon of moderate intensity and recurved several hundred miles west of
  the Marianas Islands.

                             TYPHOON HAISHEN
                            (TC-30W / TY 0225)
                             20 - 27 November

  Haishen: contributed by China, is the Chinese 'God of the Sea' to whom
           sailors and fishermen would offer sacrifices for safe voyages
           before they set sail or when they encountered stormy weather

  A. Storm Origins

     On 18 November an area of convection developed approximately 200 nm
  southwest of Chuuk.  Animated visible imagery indicated disorganized
  cycling deep convection embedded in a monsoon trough.  An 18/2144 UTC
  SSM/I pass depicted scattered convection along the periphery of a broad
  circulation with no central deep convection.  A 200-mb analysis indicated
  that the disturbance lay within a region of good diffluence and weak
  vertical shear.   By 19/0600 UTC the initial disturbance had dissipated
  but a new area of convection had formed approximately 210 nm northeast
  of Chuuk.  Animated visible imagery suggested the presence of a large
  mid-level circulation while a 200-mb analysis indicated that the system
  was located beneath the axis of a near-equatorial ridge situated to its
  east.  Vertical shear was weak and upper-level divergence good with both
  poleward and equatorward outflow channels.

     At 19/2000 UTC the disturbance was located about 340 nm southeast of
  Guam.  There was some cycling deep convection associated with the LLCC,
  so the development potential was upgraded to fair.  A TCFA was issued
  at 0200 UTC on the 20th due to increasing deep convection over the past
  few hours.  Visible satellite imagery suggested a broad circulation with
  multiple LLCCs present; maximum winds were estimated at 20-25 kts.
  Earlier, at 20/0000 UTC, JMA had classified the system as a 25-kt (10-min
  avg) tropical depression.  JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical
  Depression 30W at 0600 UTC.  The center was located approximately 225 nm
  southeast of Guam, moving westward at a rather rapid 22 kts.  By 1200
  UTC TD-30W was already passing about 135 nm due south of Guam, racing
  westward at 25 kts.  The MSW was upped to 30 kts based on CI estimates
  of 25 kts and recent QuikScat data.   At 1800 UTC the forward pace had
  slowed a bit to 17 kts as JMA upgraded the depression to 35-kt Tropical
  Storm Haishen.   NMCC followed suit and upgraded Haishen to tropical
  storm status at 0000 UTC on 21 November.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     JTWC upgraded Haishen to tropical storm status at 21/0600 UTC when
  the center was located approximately 200 nm northeast of Yap.  Haishen
  was still moving west-northwestward rather quickly at 17 kts as it was
  steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north.  This motion continued
  throughout the 21st--by 1800 UTC Haishen was centered about 420 nm west
  of Guam.  Deep convection had continued to increase near the LLCC and
  satellite CI estimates had reached 45 kts, which was JTWC's 1800 UTC
  warning intensity.   (JMA and NMCC were both estimating the 10-min avg
  MSW at 50 kts at 1800 UTC.)   JTWC increased the MSW to 55 kts at 0000
  UTC on the 22nd and to 60 kts at 0600 UTC.  Haishen continued to
  consolidate, developing good poleward outflow and tightly-curved banding
  features.  JTWC upgraded the storm to typhoon status at 1200 UTC when
  it was centered approximately 575 nm west-northwest of Guam, or about
  620 nm south-southwest of Iwo Jima.   A 60-nm diameter CDO had developed,
  and enhanced infrared imagery around 1800 UTC depicted a banding eye
  feature.  Haishen's track had turned gradually toward the north as an
  approaching mid-latitude trough created a weakness in the subtropical
  ridge which had been guiding the storm.

     Typhoon Haishen continued tracking northward during the 23rd, turning
  toward the north-northeast by 1800 UTC.  The storm continued to intensify
  as it moved northward with outflow being aided somewhat by contact with
  the westerlies.  JMA and NMCC upgraded Haishen to typhoon status at 0600
  UTC, and JMA upped the MSW (10-min avg) to their peak estimate of 75 kts
  six hours later.   JTWC estimated the peak MSW at 95 kts at 1800 UTC
  and at 24/0000 UTC, based on CI estimates of 102 kts.    SSM/I data
  indicated that Haishen had a small 14-nm diameter eye.   The minimum CP
  estimated by JMA was 960 mb, and gales extended outward from the center
  150 nm in most quadrants while the radius of storm-force winds was
  estimated at 45 nm.   At 23/1800 UTC the eye of Typhoon Haishen was
  centered approximately 345 nm southwest of Iwo Jima, tracking north-
  northeastward at 13 kts.

     By 24/0000 UTC Haishen was beginning to show signs of impending extra-
  tropical transition:  the eyewall had begun to erode and vertical shear
  was increasing.    By 0600 UTC the eyewall had collapsed and JTWC and
  JMA lowered their respective MSW estimates to 85 kts and 70 kts.  NMCC,
  interestingly, raised their 10-min avg MSW estimate to the peak of 70 kts
  at 0600 UTC, possibly to account for the storm's rapid north-
  northeastward motion at 30 kts.  JTWC issued their final warning on
  Typhoon Haishen at 24/1800 UTC with the storm located 265 nm north-
  northeast of Iwo Jima and moving northeastward at 27 kts.  Convection
  had weakened and the LLCC had become involved with a cold front.  JMA
  classified Haishen as extratropical six hours later, and the system
  continued to race off to the northeast, gradually turning eastward.  By
  27/0600 UTC Haishen's remnants consisted of a 40-kt gale located a few
  hundred miles northeast of Midway Island.

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Roger Edson reported from Guam that he experienced wind gusts to
  40 kts as a large outer rainband of Haishen rolled over the island.
  Huang Chunliang sent me some observations from the island of Chichi
  Jima (WMO 47971) which he'd gleaned from JMA's website.  The station
  recorded a peak sustained wind of 38 kts at 24/1200 UTC with the minimum
  SLP of 970.8 mb measured at 1300 UTC.  The station's peak gust of 70 kts
  was recorded at 1150 UTC.  Ships DEFA and WNRD recorded winds of 58 kts
  and 38 kts, respectively, as they encountered Haishen's extratropical
  remnants on the 26th.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Typhoon Haishen
  have been received.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for November:  1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
                          1 tropical cyclone of storm intensity

  ** - not classified as a tropical depression by JTWC

                        Sources of Information

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.

     The reports on Tropical Cyclones 03B and 04B were written by John
  Wallace--a special thanks to John for his assistance.

           North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November

     Two tropical cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during November.
  One did not intensify very much above minimal gale force and remained
  well out in the Bay.  The other one, however, after loitering off the
  East Coast of India as a weak cyclone, suddenly intensified and
  spurted northeastward, making landfall in India's West Bengal State
  near Calcutta before sweeping on into Bangladesh.    Several dozen
  fishermen were known to have drowned as the storm caught them unawares,
  and several hundred more were reported missing.    The cyclone also
  caused significant onshore damage in Bangladesh.

                          TROPICAL CYCLONE
                          10 - 12 November

     Tropical Cyclone 03B was first noted in an IMD bulletin at 0600 UTC
  on 10 November when it was located 145 nm east-southeast of Chennai
  (Madras), India.   The depression tracked steadily northeastward and
  intensified to gale force at 1200 UTC on 11 November when it was
  centered approximately 465 nm south-southwest of Calcutta.   It was at
  this time that the JTWC issued their first warning on TC-03B.

     The cyclone's intensity changed little until the 12th, when it 
  accelerated to the northeast, reaching its estimated peak 1-min avg MSW
  of 55 kts at 0600 UTC when located 120 nm south-southwest of Calcutta.
  Use of the JTWC's MSW/CP relationship for NWP storms, first developed
  by Atkinson and Holliday (1977) yields an equivalent CP of 984 mb for
  a 55-kt system.  (For better or worse, the JTWC has generally applied
  the same Atkinson and Holliday estimates to both NIO and NWP storms.)
  Warnings from the RMC Calcutta at 0530 UTC, however, indicated lower
  winds of about 30-40 kts, with a central pressure of 990 mb.  It is
  not known if the discrepancy is due to different averaging periods
  or to different data sources; therefore, TC-03B's true peak intensity
  remains uncertain.   (Editor's Note:  At its peak this system was
  classified as a "severe cyclonic storm" by IMD, implying peak winds
  in the 48-63 kt range.)

     Tropical Cyclone 03B made landfall near Sagar Island soon after its
  peak, at 0900 UTC on 12 November.  It weakened quickly once inland, and
  the final warning was issued on the remnant depression at 1200 UTC on
  the 12th when it was centered about 110 km northeast of Calcutta.  

     Press reports indicate significant loss of life occurred with this
  cyclone, mostly fishermen lost at sea.   At least 49 fishermen were
  drowned, and various reports listed anywhere from 111 to 560 missing.
  According to one source, the number of persons missing is difficult
  to assess since sometimes people return alive from the sea three to
  four weeks after a cyclone's passage.  The Fisheries Minister for
  West Bengal State reported that nine trawlers sank off the Digha coast
  and only 66 fishermen survived.  A report dated 15 November indicated
  that at least 47 fishing vessels were unaccounted for.

     In Bangladesh 170 fishermen were missing after the cyclone lashed
  that country's southern coast, destroying fishing villages and rice
  farms.  Winds smashed bamboo huts, uprooted trees, and disrupted road
  travel between towns and villages along the Bay of Bengal coast.  The
  capital city of Dhaka was inundated with heavy rains which flooded
  city streets, shutting down electrical power and forcing public
  transportation to cease operation.  The heavy rains also wiped out
  winter rice and vegetable crops.

     More information about this cyclone's effects can be found at the
  following website:

  (Report written by John Wallace with additions by Gary Padgett)

                           TROPICAL CYCLONE
                           23 - 28 November

     The LOW that became Tropical Cyclone 04B was first noted in an IMD
  bulletin at 0300 UTC on 23 November when it was located about 440 nm
  east-southeast of Chennai (Madras), India.   The JTWC issued its first
  warning on TC-04B at 1200 UTC on the 23rd, placing the center about
  510 nm east of Chennai and tracking slowly northward.

     Tropical Cyclone 04B peaked at 1800 UTC on 23 November with a MSW of
  45 kts and an estimated CP of 991 mb when it was centered 500 nm east
  of Chennai.   The cyclone weakened on the 24th as it tracked to the
  north, and thereafter maintained only minimal tropical storm strength.
  Late on the 24th, TC-04B turned northwestward, and was relocated to the
  south on the 25th as the poorly-organized system became more difficult
  to track.  By now its slow track was roughly westward, and the JTWC
  issued their final warning on TC-04B at 1200 UTC on the 25th, even
  though the cyclone was still generating significant convection.  The
  likely reason for the pre-emptive move was an expectation that the
  cyclone would soon dissipate.  The IMD continued issuing warnings,
  however, as the minimal storm turned northward again late on the 25th,
  then due east on the 26th.    Tropical Cyclone 04B weakened to depression
  strength on the 27th, and its eastward track faltered to a near stall.
  The final advisory on the dissipating system was issued by the IMD at
  0300 UTC on 28 November when it was located about 270 nm west of Yangon
  (Rangoon), Myanmar.

     No casualties or damages are known to have resulted from TC-04B.

  (Note:  The CP estimate was based on the Atkinson and Holliday (1977)
  table.  See report on TC-03B for more information.)

  (Report written by John Wallace)


  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for November:  1 moderate tropical storm **
                          1 tropical cyclone (hurricane)

  ** - system was not operationally classified as a tropical storm by MFR
       (although it was by JTWC)

                        Sources of Information

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.

          Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November

     Two tropical systems were named in the Southwest Indian basin during
  November.  Atang was never classified as a tropical storm by MFR or
  Mauritius (although it was by JTWC), but was named by Mauritius none-
  theless since it posed a threat to the island of Agalega.  Atang was
  a very tenacious system--twice JTWC dropped warnings but had to revive
  them as the system re-intensified.  Atang eventually crossed the northern
  tip of Madagascar and made landfall in southern Tanzania.   There was
  an unofficial report of 40-kt winds in Tanzania which suggests that the
  system was possibly a tropical storm when it made landfall.

     The second storm, Boura, formed east-southeast of Diego Garcia and
  moved west-southwestward across the Southwest Indian for several days.
  Boura reached minimal tropical cyclone (i.e., hurricane) intensity on
  18 November.  JTWC, however, estimated Boura's winds at hurricane
  intensity (1-min avg) for three days from the 17th to the 20th.

                           TROPICAL STORM ATANG
                             (MFR-02 / TC-02S)
                              4 - 13 November

  Atang: contributed by Botswana

  A. Storm Origins

     A STWO issued by JTWC on 3 November noted that an area of convection
  about 90 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia had persisted for at least
  twelve hours.   Animated multi-spectral and microwave imagery revealed
  the presence of cycling deep convection over a broad LLCC while a 200-mb
  analysis indicated weak vertical shear and moderate diffluence over the
  region.   The development potential was upgraded to fair at 1800 UTC as
  convection continued to organize near the center.  The system continued
  moving westward--by 2100 UTC it was located about 290 nm west of Diego
  Garcia.  A 03/1722 UTC SSM/I image had indicated increased organization
  in the mid-levels with an improved banding feature wrapping around the
  LLCC.  The disturbance was located in a favorable environment beneath
  a ridge axis, so a TCFA was issued by JTWC.  The MSW (1-min avg) was
  estimated at 25-30 kts.

     MFR initiated tropical disturbance bulletins at 04/1200 UTC, numbering
  it as Tropical Disturbance 02.  The center was then located approximately
  400 nm north-northeast of Agalega.  The LLCC appeared to be slightly
  weaker on the 4th, although there was still organized deep convection.
  JTWC issued a second TCFA at 2100 UTC as the system continued moving
  westward at 13 kts.   By 1800 UTC on the 5th the disturbance had reached
  a point approximately 700 nm east-northeast of Madagascar.  Little change
  in structure had been noted, but vertical shear remained weak.

     At 06/0000 UTC, MFR upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression
  status, i.e., a MSW of 30 kts, and at 0600 UTC, JTWC issued their first
  warning on TC-02S, estimating the 1-min avg MSW at 35 kts.  The system
  was moving southwestward at 4 kts, and animated visible imagery indicated
  improving outflow aloft.  By 1200 UTC the depression had reached a point
  approximately 105 nm north-northeast of Agalega.  Even though it was not
  considered a tropical storm by the Southern Hemisphere warning centres at
  this juncture, the Meteorological Service of Mauritius named it Atang in
  order to stress the potential threat it posed to the island of Agalega.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     JTWC upped the MSW (1-min avg) to 45 kts at 1800 UTC based on CI
  estimates of 45 and 55 kts.   MFR and Mauritius, however, never estimated
  the MSW (10-min avg) any higher than 30 kts.   Atang at this time still
  remained underneath an upper-level ridge axis and appeared to be slowly
  intensifying.  However, by 17/0600 UTC the system appeared to be weaker.
  Animated satellite imagery indicated considerable weakening of the
  convection and low-level cloud lines appeared diffuse and weak.  Dvorak
  numbers were also decreasing, so JTWC lowered the 1-min MSW to 35 kts.
  MFR reduced the intensity to 25 kts at 1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC JTWC
  issued the first of three "final" warnings on Atang.  The system was then
  located approximately 380 nm northeast of Madagascar or about 165 nm
  south-southwest of the Seychelles.  Microwave imagery revealed that the
  LLCC was embedded in a broad trough with multiple circulations.

     Even though Atang's surface circulation weakened, the mid-level
  circulation remained intact.  In a STWO issued at 1800 UTC on 8 November,
  JTWC upgraded the potential for redevelopment to fair.  Warnings on
  Atang were re-initiated at 0600 UTC on the 9th.  The center was placed
  about 375 nm north-northwest of Tromelin Island with the MSW (1-min avg)
  estimated at 35 kts.  A short-lived upper-level LOW had formed northwest
  of Madagascar, improving outflow over the depression.  MFR had also
  discontinued bulletins at 07/1800 UTC, but resumed issuing them at
  09/1200 UTC.   JTWC maintained the MSW at 35 kts through the 10/0600 UTC
  warning.  Satellite intensity estimates during this interim period were
  in the 25-30 kt range, but QuikScat data indicated 35-kt winds in the
  circulation.  Atang had moved southwestward, and at 0600 UTC on the 10th
  was located just northeast of the coast of Madagascar.  Animated visible
  imagery indicated that two possible LLCCs had formed as the system
  approached land.   The next warning at 10/1800 UTC placed Atang's center
  approximately 50 nm north of the northern tip of Madagascar, tracking
  west-northwestward.  The MSW (1-min avg) was lowered to 20 kts and
  warnings were discontinued for the second time.

     MFR continued to issue sporadic bulletins on Atang but kept the
  system at tropical disturbance status, i.e., winds 25 kts or less.  A
  STWO from JTWC at 0700 UTC on 11 November indicated that the disturbance
  once more had a fair potential for redevelopment.   Warnings were
  started for the third time on this tenacious system at 11/1200 UTC.  The
  revived Atang was located over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel
  about 250 nm west-northwest of the northern tip of Madagascar.  The
  system was moving west-southwestward at 12 kts with the MSW (1-min avg)
  once more estimated at 35 kts, based on CI estimates of 25, 30 and 35 kts
  and an 11/0236 UTC QuikScat pass.   Convection had increased near the
  LLCC during the previous twelve hours.

     A low to mid-level subtropical ridge to the south guided Atang on a
  westerly track toward the African coast.  The 12/0000 UTC warning noted
  that the center was partially-exposed to the east of the deep convection.
  The warning intensity was maintained at 35 kts based on CI estimates of
  30 and 35 kts and synoptic data.  As it neared the coast, Atang took a
  northwestward jog toward Tanzania, being located at 1200 UTC about 70 nm
  east of the southern Tanzanian coast.   The center moved inland around
  1800 UTC and by 13/0000 UTC was dissipating about 50 nm inland.  The
  LLCC had weakened and become decoupled from the remaining mid-level
  circulation.  The 13/0000 UTC warning from JTWC was the final "final"
  warning on Atang.

  C. Meteorological Observations

     In late November I received an e-mail from Julian Heming of the
  UK Meteorological Office.  Julian related that a colleague of his had
  just returned from Tanzania where he had assisted with the installation
  of a forecaster display package for the Tanzanian Meteorological Service.
  During the time Julian's colleague was in Tanzania, the remnants of Atang
  came ashore over the southern portion of the country.  There were reports
  of much loss of life (mainly fishermen), extremely heavy rainfall, and a
  report from a coastal station of sustained winds of 40 kts, gusting to
  80 kts.   A visible Meteosat 5 image taken at 0850 UTC on 12 November,
  sent to me by Karl Hoarau, depicts a partially-exposed center on the
  eastern side the CDO, so an intensity of 35-45 kts isn't out of the
  question, based on that image.    However, if the 80-kt gust measurement
  is accurate, it probably occurred in a big thunderstorm.  It should be
  noted that this report is unofficial and currently hasn't been verified,
  but if it is true, would strongly suggest that Atang was a tropical
  storm (10-min avg) at landfall.   If any further details are received 
  regarding this observation, they will be included in a future summary.

  D. Damage and Casualties

     Other than the reference to loss of life in the above paragraph,
  I have been unable to locate any further information concerning
  damage and/or casualties resulting from Atang.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                          TROPICAL CYCLONE BOURA
                            (MFR-03 / TC 03S)
                             15 - 23 November

  Boura: contributed by the Comoros Islands

  A. Storm Origins

     A STWO issued by JTWC at 1800 UTC on 14 November noted that an area of
  convection had developed approximately 350 nm east-northeast of Diego
  Garcia.  Animated visible imagery indicated that a strong westerly wind
  burst was moving through the area.  A 14/1220 UTC QuikScat pass indicated
  troughing along latitude 5S with 20-30 kt winds on both the equatorward
  and poleward sides of the trough.   A 14/1502 UTC SSM/I pass failed to
  show any organization of the deep convection, but an upper-level analysis
  indicated excellent divergence with two outflow channels.   An interim
  STWO was issued at 2300 UTC upgrading the development potential to fair.
  The disturbance had moved southward and was then located approximately
  315 nm east of Diego Garcia.   A mid-level circulation was present and
  deep convection was consolidating, and a 14/1809 UTC TRMM pass had
  suggested a turning in the lower levels.

  B. Track and Intensity History

     The first bulletin issued by MFR at 0600 UTC on 15 November directly
  upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Boura.  Boura was centered about
  250 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia, and MFR estimated the MSW to be
  35 kts.  JTWC issued a TCFA at 0800 UTC, followed by the first warning
  on TC-03S with 35-kt winds at 1200 UTC.   Once having upgraded Boura
  to tropical storm status, MFR's intensity estimate remained pegged at
  35 kts for 48 hours whereas JTWC upped the 1-min avg MSW to 40 kts at
  1800 UTC and to 45 kts at 16/1200 UTC.  Boura was then located 200 nm
  due south of Diego Garcia and moving west-southwestward at 11 kts, being
  guided by a low to mid-level ridge to the south-southeast.  Some
  easterly shearing was still affecting the system and it intensified
  slowly on the 16th.

     However, by early on 17 November Boura was showing signs of getting
  stronger.  By 0600 UTC Dvorak estimates were T4.0, and early visible
  imagery indicated that the vortex had moved beneath the center of the
  deep convection and had developed a CDO.  Also, a banding feature was
  developing over the southeast quadrant.  MFR and JTWC upped the 0600 UTC
  intensity estimates to 60 (10-min avg) and 65 (1-min avg) kts,
  respectively.  An eye appeared to be forming around 17/0600 UTC, but
  six hours later had returned to a tightly-curved band feature.  A passing
  baroclinic disturbance to the south had induced a slightly more south-
  westward motion for Boura, and the forward speed had decreased slightly
  also.     Nonetheless, the storm appeared slightly stronger with CI
  estimates reaching 77 kts, so JTWC upped the 1-min avg MSW to 75 kts
  at 1800 UTC, and MFR upped the 10-min avg intensity to 65 kts--cyclone
  strength--at 18/0000 UTC.

     Tropical Cyclone Boura was at its peak intensity of 65 kts (75 kts
  from JTWC) early on 18 November when located approximately 500 nm east-
  northeast of St. Brandon Island.  The minimum CP estimated by MFR was
  968 mb.    However, as the day wore on, there was evidence of drier
  air affecting the eastern section of the cyclone, and some upper-level
  northeasterlies also began to impinge on the system.  MFR downgraded
  Boura to a 60-kt severe tropical storm at 1800 UTC, but JTWC maintained
  the 1-min avg MSW at 75 kts through early on the 20th.   By 1800 UTC
  the slowly-weakening Boura was located about 260 nm northeast of
  Mauritius, moving westward at 8 kts.  The cyclone apparently made a
  slight comeback on the 19th--at least one CI estimate reached 90 kts,
  so JTWC left the 1-min avg MSW at 75 kts.  MFR, however, did not agree
  with this assessment and reduced the 10-min avg MSW to 55 kts at 0600
  UTC.  The 19/0000 UTC JTWC warning noted that enhanced infrared imagery
  indicated increased outflow in the northern semi-circle.

     Outflow remained good on 20 November, but CI numbers began to slowly
  decrease.  JTWC reduced the 1-min avg MSW estimate to 65 kts at 20/1200
  UTC with the storm centered about 260 nm north of Mauritius, moving
  west-southwestward at 9 kts.   MFR lowered the intensity to 50 kts at
  1800 UTC as the system continued slowly weakening.  Although CI estimates
  continued to decrease, JTWC kept Boura at 65 kts on the 21/0000 UTC
  warning, but this was reduced to 45 kts at 1200 UTC--MFR was also
  reporting 45 kts for the 10-min avg MSW.  The storm had weakened
  considerably during the previous twelve hours with the center partially-
  exposed to the northwest of the remaining deep convection.  A low to mid-
  level subtropical ridge to the south had caused the weakening Boura to
  take a west-northwesterly track.   MFR downgraded Boura to tropical
  depression status at 22/0000 UTC when the fully-exposed LLCC was located
  approximately 165 nm north of Tromelin.   Also at 0000 UTC JTWC lowered
  the MSW to 35 kts and issued their final warning.   Boura continued to
  drift west-northwestward as it weakened.  MFR issued the final bulletin
  on the dissipating system at 1200 UTC on the 23rd, locating the center
  about 150 nm east-northeast of the northern tip of Madagascar.

     The remnants of Boura did not die easily.  On 25 November satellite
  imagery revealed a partially-exposed LLCC under the eastern side of a
  small CDO one degree in diameter.  The remains of Boura had continued
  traveling northwestward and were located deep in the tropics several
  hundred miles north of Madagascar.   Earlier QuikScat data had revealed
  winds of 25-30 kts south of the center.  No warning center re-initiated
  warnings, however, and the LOW gradually weakened.  By the 27th the
  LLCC was completely-exposed about one degree east of the CDO--still
  warranting a Dvorak classification of T1.0/1.5 (this assessment from
  Karl Hoarau).

  C. Meteorological Observations

     Patrick Hoareau made a survey of the JTWC Best Track database for the
  Southern Hemisphere (1980-2002) and could find no other cyclone which
  reached an intensity of 75 kts (1-min avg MSW) west of longitude 65E
  for so early in the season.  Tropical Cyclone Boura passed about 70 nm
  north-northwest of St. Brandon.  A 24-hour rainfall total of 54.5 mm
  was measured and the peak gust reached 57 kts.  Since a strong gradient
  existed between the cyclone and a strong anticyclone to the south,
  strong wind gusts were recorded in Mauritius and Reunion Island.   In
  Mauritius, Le Morne recorded a peak gust of 64 kts while Bain Boeuf
  recorded a gust of 51 kts.  On Reunion Island, Etang Sale recorded a
  top gust of 60 kts.  (A thanks to Patrick for passing along this

  D. Damage and Casualties

     No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone
  Boura have been received by the author, although wind gusts of the
  magnitudes mentioned in the above paragraph would likely have caused
  some scattered, minor damage to vegetation and weaker structures.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for November:  1 tropical depression **

  ** - system formed at end of month and became minimal tropical cyclone in
       early December and will be covered in the December summary

               South Pacific Tropical Activity for November

     A tropical depression formed north of Fiji late in the month and
  moved generally southeastward for the next several days.  The system
  was well east of the Dateline on 4 December when it strengthened
  slightly and became ephemeral Tropical Cyclone Yolande.  The report
  on Yolande will be included in the December summary.


                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):>> OR>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.  Recently
  added was the report for the Southern Hemisphere 2001-2002 season.

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
  well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  John Wallace  (Eastern North Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Western
                 Gulf of Mexico)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0211.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006

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