Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ZOE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20021225 08:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250821Z DEC 02// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 179.9W6 TO 11.6S8 176.0E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 250530Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 178.9E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 178.8W4 HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 178.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC, BUT ORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED OUTFLOW AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260830Z9.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021225 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250821ZDEC2002// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z0 --- NEAR 11.0S2 177.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 177.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 11.6S8 176.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 11.8S0 174.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 12.0S3 173.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 12.2S5 171.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 177.3E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN WESTWARD AFTERWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT OR NEAR A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 250821Z DEC 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 250830). NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021226 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z8 --- NEAR 10.9S0 175.4E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 175.4E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 11.0S2 173.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 11.0S2 171.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 11.1S3 169.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 11.1S3 168.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM --- REMARKS: 260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 174.9E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 06P SHOULD INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021226 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- NEAR 10.8S9 173.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 173.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 172.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 11.2S4 170.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 11.6S8 169.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 12.4S7 168.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 173.3E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH CREATED BY AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE AFWA MM5 MODEL DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY POLEWARD MOVEMENT AT 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021227 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 11.1S3 172.6E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 172.6E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 11.5S7 171.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 12.0S3 170.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 12.5S8 169.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 13.2S6 169.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 172.2E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 18 NM EYE FEATURE AND CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THEN, TC 06P, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SHOULD WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NGPS AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR) DOES NOT CATCH THE WEAKNESS AS SOON, THUS IS SLOW TO TURN THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. JTWC ATTRIBUTES THIS TO UNDERESTIMATION OF STORM STRENGTH AND A WEAKER APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021227 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- NEAR 11.7S9 170.6E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 170.6E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 12.3S6 169.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 13.0S4 168.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 13.7S1 168.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.6S1 169.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 170.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 20 NM EYE AND CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021228 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- NEAR 12.2S5 169.8E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 169.8E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 12.6S9 169.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 13.3S7 168.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.3S8 169.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 15.7S3 170.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 169.6E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 26 NM EYE FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERY STRONG STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN AFTER 24 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH MID-PERIOD. IT SHOULD WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES SHEARED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN BOM TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 281500 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 12.5S8 169.2E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 169.2E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 13.3S7 168.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 14.4S9 169.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 15.5S1 170.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 17.0S8 172.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 169.1E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 155 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A 20 NM EYE FEATURE REMAINS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN A POLEWARD TURN AFTER 12 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGH MID-PERIOD. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN BOM TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN ONLY MARGINAL AGREEMENT, WITH TLAPS AND TCLAPS BIASED TOWARDS THE WEST AND EAST RESPECTIVELY. THE REMAINING DYNAMIC AIDS ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY FORECAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TLAPS AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021229 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 169.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 169.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 13.3S7 170.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 14.5S0 171.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 15.5S1 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 17.5S3 174.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 169.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SSM/I PASSES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.0/6.5 (115/127 KTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TC 06P'S PAST 12 HOUR PERSISTENCE INDICATE THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM, MOVING TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NWP ALL INDICATE MOVEMENT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLIES. HOWEVER, GFS, TLAPS, AND THE UKMET SPECTRAL SHOW A TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON AN NWP CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX 290000 FOR FURTHER SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021229 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 170.5E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 170.5E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 14.7S2 171.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 16.1S8 172.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 17.6S4 173.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 19.5S5 174.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 170.8E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 127, ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR DVORAK CONSTRAINTS AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THIS INFLUENCE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HAVE BEGUN. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE MOVEMENT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLIES, HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AVN AND EGRR INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON AN NWP CONSENSUS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021230 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 171.6E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 171.6E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 15.2S8 172.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 17.3S1 174.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 19.1S1 175.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 20.5S7 175.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 171.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSM/I PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0/5.5 (90 KTS/102 KTS). WATER VAPOR ANIMATION, A 291850Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS, AND THE MOST RECENT SSM/I PASSES ALL DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED THE FIRST STAGE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYNOPTIC DATA AND IMAGERY REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND RAINBANDS OVER THE WEST QUADRANT AND A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION TO A CLASSIC ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE, THE SSM/I PASS DEPICTED EYEWALL COLLAPSE OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. THE 85 GHZ PCT AND LIQUID WATER IMAGES ALSO SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH QUAD. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, BOM TCLAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND THE UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX 300000 FOR FURTHER SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021230 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- NEAR 15.9S5 173.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 173.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 17.3S1 174.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 18.7S6 175.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 20.2S4 175.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 21.9S2 175.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 173.5E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 300942Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (65 KTS/77 KTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 300550Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS, AND RECENT SSM/I PASSES ALL INDICATE THAT 06P CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH THE SYSTEM COMPLETING THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND THE SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR AROUND THE ENTIRE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, BECOMING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021231 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- NEAR 16.4S1 173.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 173.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 17.6S4 173.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 19.4S4 173.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 21.3S6 173.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 22.9S3 172.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 173.4E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (65 KTS/77 KTS) AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO COOL, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20021231 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z7 --- NEAR 18.3S2 174.2E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 174.2E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 19.9S9 174.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 21.4S7 174.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 22.8S2 173.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 23.5S0 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 74.3E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE, WEAKEN AND SLOWLY UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS - GFDN, NOGAPS, NCEP AVN, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND 011500Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030101 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- NEAR 20.2S4 174.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 174.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 21.9S2 174.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 23.6S1 173.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 24.8S4 171.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 174.8E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KTS). VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS. THE NORTH QUADRANT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK CLOUD LINES, IS NOW DEEP CONVECTION FREE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS POLAR FINGER JET SUPPORT TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITHIN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY A LOW/MID RIDGE EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX 010000 FOR FURTHER SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: zoe.html
Updated: 1st January, 2003 |
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