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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary September 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                  MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                             SEPTEMBER, 2003
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                           SEPTEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Long-lived intense Cape Verde hurricane makes devastating strike on
      U. S. East Coast--still a tropical storm in Ontario, Canada
  --> Nova Scotia experiences significant hurricane damage
  --> Another hurricane strikes the Baja California Peninsula and moves up
      entire Gulf of California
  --> Very deadly and devastating typhoon strikes South Korea
  --> Unusually early-season tropical storm forms in Southwest Indian Ocean

  *************************************************************************

               ***** Feature of the Month for September *****
                         
                 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
                             2003 - 2004 SEASON

              TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
                          
     The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical
  Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC):  Perth, Western Australia; Darwin,
  Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland.  Each centre is allotted
  a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming
  within its area of responsibility (AOR).  In addition a TCWC located at
  Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory--
  maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical
  cyclones which form within its AOR.

     The AORs of the respective centres are:

  (1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E and south of 10S.  Currently, and for
      at least the next few years, the Perth TCWC will issue warnings for
      any systems north of 10S and south and west of the Indonesian
      islands.

  (2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the
      equator.  There is a little irregularity with the eastern border
      in the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas
      Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues
      Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion
      of the Gulf.  Also, currently, and for at least the next few years,
      the Darwin TCWC will issue warnings for any systems west of 125E
      and within the Indonesian archipelago in the Banda, Flores, and
      Java Seas.

  (3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S.  The
      northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular.

  (4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea
      and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern
      border is somewhat irregular.

     Names for the 2003-2004 season (** indicates name has already been
  assigned):

          Perth          Darwin        Brisbane        Port Moresby
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

         Jana **        Debbie **       Fritz            Guba
         Ken **         Evan            Grace            Ila
         Linda          Fay             Harvey           Kama
         Monty          George          Ingrid           Matere
         Nicky          Helen           Jim              Rowe
         Oscar          Ira             Kate             Tako
         Phoebe         Jasmine         Larry
         Raymond        Kim             Monica
         Sally          Laura           Nelson
         Tim            Matt            Odette
         Vivienne                       Pierre
         Willy                          Rebecca
         Adeline                        Sandy
         Bertie                         Tania
         Clare                          Vernon


           TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for the SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
                      and the SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN

     The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Nadi, Fiji, has
  tropical cyclone warning responsibility for the South Pacific east of
  160E and from the equator to 25S.   The Meteorological Service of New
  Zealand at Wellington has warning responsibility for waters south of
  25S, but almost all tropical cyclones in this basin form north of 25S.
  When a rare cyclone forms in the Wellington area of responsibility
  (AOR), it usually will be assigned a name from the Fiji list (such as
  was done for Tropical Cyclone Gita in February, 1999.)

     Tropical cyclone warning responsibility for South Indian waters west
  of 90E are shared by several TCWCs.       The Regional Specialty
  Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the region is the office of Meteo
  France on the island of La Reunion.  However, following a long-standing
  practice, the sub-regional centres at Mauritius and Madagascar share
  the responsibility for actually naming tropical storms with Mauritius
  naming systems east of 55E and Madagascar covering the area west of
  55E.   RSMC La Reunion issues warnings for the basin independently of
  these sub-regional centres, but only advises regarding when or when not
  to assign a name to a developing cyclone.

     Names for the 2003-2004 season (** indicates name has already been
  assigned):

       Southwest Indian                          South Pacific
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Abaimba **        Naledi                Heta **       Sheila
     Beni **           Olie                  Ivy           Tam
     Cela **           Patou                 Judy          Urmil
     Darius **         Quilmane              Kerry         Vaianu
     Elita             Ralph                 Lola          Wati
     Frank             Sefate                Meena         Xavier
     Gafilo            Tom                   Nancy         Yani
     Helma             Umuri                 Olaf          Zita
     Itseng            Valetta               Percy         Arthur
     Jubela            Wells                 Rae           Becky
     Katiba            Xivier
     Lenny             Yvonne
     Moingaza          Zuri

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for September:  1 tropical depression
                           1 tropical storm
                           1 hurricane
                           2 major hurricanes **

  ** - one of these did not reach major hurricane status until October


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                  Atlantic Tropical Activity for September
                  ----------------------------------------

     September was an active month in the Atlantic basin.  Over the period
  1950-2002, the month of September has averaged 3.5 named tropical storms,
  2.4 hurricanes, and 1.25 intense (Category 3+) hurricanes.  September,
  2003, produced 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.
  (Kate, which formed in September, did not reach major hurricane status
  until October.)  Over the 1950-2002 period, September has averaged about
  three intense hurricane days.  This year, there were 13.5--due to the
  long-lived Cape Verde hurricanes Fabian and Isabel.

     As the month opened, Fabian was already a major hurricane and
  continued to intensify, reaching its peak intensity on 1 September.
  On the 5th the large, severe hurricane passed directly over the island
  of Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale--the
  most intense storm to strike the island since 1926.  Since Fabian
  originated in August, it was covered completely in the August tropical
  cyclone summary.  Also, on the first couple of days in September, the
  remnants of former Tropical Storm Grace were weakening over Texas and
  Arkansas.

     Tropical Storm Isabel was christened in the eastern Atlantic on
  6 September, and subsequently became the first Category 5 hurricane in
  the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Mitch in October, 1998.  Isabel
  reached a peak intensity of 145 kts and maintained intense hurricane
  status for 8 days, Category 4 intensity for 6.75 days, and was a
  Category 5 hurricane for a total of 2.25 days.  Isabel fortunately
  weakened as it approached the U. S. East Coast, and was a Category
  2 hurricane with 90-kt winds as it made landfall on the Outer Banks of
  North Carolina.

     Hurricane Juan formed on the 25th east-southeast of Bermuda.
  Initially more subtropical in nature, Juan soon acquired tropical storm
  characteristics and reached hurricane intensity the next day.  Juan
  pursued a basic northward trajectory which carried the hurricane inland
  near Halifax, Nova Scotia, on the 29th as a Category 2 hurricane.  The
  storm was reported to have been the most destructive hurricane to strike
  the city of Halifax in well over a century.  Tropical Storm Kate formed
  during the final week of September in the eastern Atlantic, briefly
  reached hurricane intensity early on the 30th, and then weakened back
  to tropical storm status.   Kate regained hurricane intensity late on
  1 October, and on the 3rd became the season's third major hurricane.

     The only other tropical cyclone to form during September was Tropical
  Depression 14.  This system formed southeast of the Cape Verde Islands
  and later moved northwestward, passing near or over the westernmost
  Cape Verdes as it weakened.  The official TPC/NHC storm report on TD-14,
  written by James Franklin, can be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003fourteen.shtml?>

     Since the TPC/NHC storm reports are now available online, I have not
  written detailed preliminary reports as I usually do.  Links to the
  various cyclone reports can be found in the brief report on each storm.



                          TROPICAL STORM HENRI
                                (TC-12)
                            3 - 13 September
                ----------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Henri was a short-lived cyclone which formed in the
  eastern Gulf of Mexico in early September from a tropical wave which
  had left the coast of Africa several days earlier.   Henri reached an
  estimated peak intensity of 50 kts on 5 September, then weakened very
  quickly to tropical depression status and crossed the Florida Peninsula,
  moving eastward into the Atlantic.  The depression never regained
  tropical storm intensity in the Atlantic and soon became extratropical.

     The official storm report on Henri, authored by Daniel Brown and
  Miles Lawrence, is available online at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003henri.shtml?>

     The peak Best Track intensity of 50 kts represents an upgrade from the
  peak operational intensity of 45 kts.  The Best Track file is contained
  in the storm report referenced above.  The operational track, including
  the extratropical gale stage, can be found in the tropical cyclone tracks
  file for September prepared by the author.



                            HURRICANE ISABEL
                                (TC-13)
                            6 - 22 September
                  ------------------------------------

     Hurricane Isabel was one of the truly great Atlantic hurricanes of
  the past century.   Based on the operational MSW estimates, Isabel was
  a hurricane for 11.5 days and an intense hurricane for 8.0 days.  Even
  more significantly, the great storm was at Saffir/Simpson Category 5
  intensity for 2.25 days, making it the third longest-lived Category 5
  hurricane since the beginning of the reconnaissance era in 1944.  The
  hurricane also maintained 130-kt winds (equivalent to a Western Pacific
  super typhoon) for four full days.  Another significant feature of Isabel
  was that it reached Category 5 intensity further east (45.9W) than any
  other known Category 5 storm.  The previous easternmost Catetory 5
  development was Hurricane Cleo in 1958 (49.8W), but it is very question-
  able whether Cleo was truly a Category 5 hurricane.  The only other
  hurricanes to reach Category 5 intensity east of 60W, based on the
  current Best Track file, were Donna in 1960 (58.0W) and Hugo in 1989
  (54.6W).  (NOTE: The other Atlantic hurricanes maintaining Category 5
  intensity longer than Isabel were Dog in 1950 (2.5 days) and Allen in
  1980 (3.0 days)).

     Very, very fortunately for the U. S. East Coast, Isabel had weakened
  into a 90-kt Category 2 hurricane by the time it made landfall on North
  Carolina's Outer Banks on 18 September.   The storm was still deadly and
  destructive, however.   At least 16 fatalities were directly attributed
  to Isabel, mostly from drowning.  There were some more deaths indirectly
  related to the hurricane.  The storm pushed water levels in the upper
  Chesapeake Bay to record levels.  Levels in Washington DC, Annapolis and
  Baltimore exceeded the previous record levels established in the 1933
  Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane.  Delaware Bay and the Delaware River also
  experienced a significant storm surge.     The total damage caused by 
  Isabel in the U. S. is currently estimated at $3.37 billion.

     Isabel was able to generate the so-called "annular" hurricane struc-
  ture around the time it reached its maximum intensity.  Annular hurri-
  canes generally display a large eye surrounded by a solid ring of
  intense convection, with little convection elsewhere.  Such storms are
  usually not prone to the ups and downs in intensity related to the
  eyewall replacement cycles commonly seen in intense tropical cyclones.
  One very interesting feature of Isabel was the formation of mesovortices
  in the eyewall.  These were very striking in satellite imagery, at one
  point being arranged in a pentagonal "starfish" pattern.

     Tropical Storm Isabel was named on the morning of 6 September in the
  far eastern Atlantic, being upgraded directly from a tropical wave.
  Hurricane intensity was reached on 7 September, and by 1200 UTC on the
  8th Isabel had become the season's second intense hurricane.  Category 5
  intensity was initially reached at 1800 UTC on the 11th and maintained
  through 1200 UTC on the 14th (except for a 12-hour period on the 13th).
  The peak operational MSW was estimated at 140 kts, but this was nudged
  upward 5 kts during post-storm analysis.  Isabel was still a tropical
  storm when it made its final landfall in Canada (after crossing Lake
  Erie).     According to data sent by Chris Fogarty of the Canadian
  Hurricane Centre, at least two stations on the north shore of Lake Erie
  (Port Colborne and Long Point) recorded sustained winds exceeding gale
  force.   Chris' report on Isabel can be accessed at the following link:

     http://www.novaweather.net/Isabel_Data/Storm_Summary.pdf>

     The official NHC report for "super" Hurricane Isabel, authored by
  Jack Beven, is now available at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003isabel.shtml?>



                             HURRICANE JUAN
                                 (TC-15)
                            25 - 30 September
                  -------------------------------------

     Hurricane Juan formed out of the complex interaction between a
  tropical wave, an upper-level LOW, and a frontal zone.  The first
  advisory on Tropical Depression 15 was issued at 1500 UTC on
  25 September, and the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Juan six
  hours later.  However, a careful analysis of all the available data
  suggests that a depression had formed on 24 September.  Juan moved on
  a generally north-northwest to northerly track from its genesis south-
  east of Bermuda and made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, as a
  Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.

     The last time Halifax was struck by the eyewall of a hurricane was
  on 21 August 1893.  Juan was the most damaging hurricane to strike Nova
  Scotia in modern times.  According to a report on the website of the
  Canadian Hurricane Centre, Juan claimed eight lives, either directly or
  indirectly.  (The NHC report indicates two direct fatalities with three
  indirect.)    Thousands of trees were blown down, and there were many
  downed power lines as well as considerable structural damage.  Juan also
  crossed Prince Edward Island as a tropical storm.  The Canadian news 
  media reported that the total estimated damage from Juan was around
  $200 million (Canadian dollars).

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Juan, authored by Lixion Avila,
  is available at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003juan.shtml?>

     The Canadian Hurricane Centre has a page dedicated to coverage of
  Hurricane Juan at the following link:

     http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/juan/>

     Also, Chris Fogarty has put together a page of many Juan-related
  articles as well as pictures of storm damage:

     http://www.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Juan.html>



                             HURRICANE KATE
                                 (TC-16)
                        25 September - 9 October
              --------------------------------------------

     Tropical Depression 16 formed on 25 September roughly 800 nm west-
  southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  Moving northwestward for the next
  couple of days, the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Kate on the
  27th.  Kate proved to be stubborn, and despite south-southwesterly
  vertical shear, strengthened during the following two days, briefly
  attaining hurricane status on 29 September.  A temporary weakening
  trend set in as Kate, moving on a northeasterly track, turned abruptly
  west-southwestward.  The storm re-intensified and became a hurricane
  once more on 1 October, and became the season's third intense hurricane
  on the 3rd when winds reached 100 kts.    Kate's west-southwesterly
  heading veered gradually more westward and the storm reached its peak
  estimated intensity of 110 kts on 4 October when located approximately
  565 nm east-southeast of Bermuda.

     Kate began to slowly weaken after reaching its maximum intensity.
  Furthermore, it had turned northward by 6 October, then began to
  accelerate north-northeastward as the MSW fell below hurricane strength.
  The system became extratropical on 8 October but remained a powerful
  storm as it crossed the North Atlantic, passing south of Iceland on the
  9th and north of the UK the next day.  The tail end of Hurricane Kate
  brought gales to much of northern Scotland with gusts reaching 60 kts.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Hurricane Kate, written jointly
  by Richard Pasch and Robert Molleda, is now available online at the
  following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003kate.shtml?>

  (This brief report written by Kevin Boyle)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for September:  1 tropical storm
                           2 hurricanes


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.
               

              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for September
              -------------------------------------------------

     September was a month of near-normal activity in the Northeast Pacific
  basin.  Over the 1971-2002 period, the averages for the month are 3.5
  named storms, 2.2 hurricanes, and 1.1 intense hurricanes.  September of
  2003 produced 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, but no intense hurricane.
  Hurricane Marty, however, became a Category 2 hurricane shortly before
  striking the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula.  As the
  month opened, Hurricane Jimena was beginning to weaken as it passed to
  the south of Hawaii's Big Island.  The storm continued to weaken as it
  moved west-southwestward across the Central North Pacific, crossing the
  International Dateline into the Western North Pacific just before
  dissipating.   Other than Marty, the other named storms forming in
  September were Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Linda.  Kevin was just
  a minimal tropical storm for only six hours while Linda reached minimal
  hurricane strength for 12 hours before quickly weakening.

     There was one additional system which warrants mentioning.  A tropical
  disturbance developed around 1000 nm west-southwest of the tip of Baja
  California on 4 September.   The area of low pressure remained stationary
  for about 24 hours, then began a slow northward drift.   On the 5th
  convection increased somewhat around the center, prompting SAB to assign
  a Dvorak rating of T2.5/2.5.   Concurrent Tropical Weather Outlooks from
  TPC/NHC indicated that a tropical depression could be forming.  However,
  early on 6 September convection began to diminish and the T-numbers from
  SAB began to quickly come down.  (This system was being rated during the
  period 4-7 September, and the NRL temporary number was 91E.)

     Reports for the cyclones are already available on TPC/NHC's website,
  so I have not written the usual detailed preliminary reports for these
  storms, but only a brief synopsis of each which will include the link
  to the individual storm reports.  In the case of Tropical Storm Kevin,
  however, Kevin Boyle submitted a short report on his namesake shortly
  after the cyclone's brief life, so I have included that below.  



                         TROPICAL STORM KEVIN
                               (TC-11E)
                            3 - 6 September
               ----------------------------------------

     This short-lived wimpy tropical storm formed from a disturbance that
  moved westward off the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo.  This was being
  noted in East Pacific STWOs issued by NHC on 31 August.  The system
  moved generally west-northwestward for a couple of days and was expected
  to only slowly strengthen and organise.  Even when the first warning was
  issued at 1500 UTC on 3 September the disturbance did not look very
  impressive, and satellite classifications at this time were T1.0 at the
  most.  The initial position of the LLCC was located near 19.2N, 111.9W,
  and this was only a rough estimate due to the difficulty in pinpointing
  the centre.  The depression was located in an area of modest north-
  easterly shear, and slow strengthening was forecast to continue until
  the system reached cooler SSTs in two to three days time.   Factors
  justifying issuance of the first warning were:  a southerly wind and a
  1001.6 mb pressure reported from Socorro Island at 03/1200 UTC, deep
  convection becoming more concentrated near Socorro as evidenced from
  satellite imagery, and data from a QuikScat pass at 0100 UTC.  At the
  time of the first advisory the depression was centred roughly 250 nm
  south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

     Tropical Depression Eleven-E continued to move west-northwestward,
  along with the monsoon flow, with a MSW of 30 kts.  The storm possessed
  a large circulation which was elongated northwest-southeast with
  abundant convection in a curved band southwest of the centre.  The LLCC
  remained difficult to locate and three satellite fixes were east of the
  previous position at 04/0300 UTC near a burst of convection.   Further
  relocation at 04/1500 UTC (to 21.2N, 114.3W) was based on
  satellite and microwave imagery from a 1200 UTC TRMM pass.   The
  depression, still over SSTs of 28-29 C, had a slim chance of making the
  grade as a tropical storm before moving into increasingly colder waters.
  It did so at 04/2100 UTC but for six hours only (warning #6) and unduly
  peaked at 35 kts.   QuikScat data at 04/1335 UTC found a large area of
  30 kt winds surrounding the nucleus of the cyclone with rain contaminated
  winds as high as 55 kts in the southwestern quadrant.  The core of Kevin
  was composed of multiple swirls of clouds rotating around it, and this
  made life difficult for the satellite analysts and NHC in determining
  where the actual centre was.   It was decided to locate the position of
  the broad circulation as a whole to overcome this problem.  At the time
  of its upgrade to tropical storm status, Kevin was located approximately
  300 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
  
     At 0300 UTC on 5 September Kevin was downgraded to a tropical depres-
  sion, the east-northeasterly wind shear exposing the LLCC as the tropical
  cyclone began to make its way towards cooler waters.  Enhanced infrared
  satellite imagery and a 0436 UTC TRMM pass located the LLCC displaced
  90 nm from the deep convection, and by the end of the day there was no
  associated thunderstorm activity.  On the final forecast/advisory at
  06/0300 UTC, Kevin was just basically a large swirl of low-level clouds
  located roughly 475 nm west of Cabo San Lucas.  The remnants of the
  depression persisted for several days, eventually drifting northward,
  then east-northeastward, and finally to the east-southeast.

     There have been no reports of damage or casualties resulting from
  the ephemeral Tropical Storm Kevin.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

  NOTE: The official NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Kevin, written
  by Stacy Stewart, is now available online at the following link:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003kevin.shtml?>



                            HURRICANE LINDA
                                (TC-12E)
                           14 - 17 September
                 -------------------------------------

     Tropical Depression 12E formed on 14 September about 300 nm west-
  southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Six hours later the depression was
  upgraded to Tropical Storm Linda.  Linda moved northwestward and
  intensified steadily, reaching hurricane intensity around 1800 UTC when
  centered approximately 265 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas on the tip of
  the Baja California Peninsula.   Linda did not intensify beyond 65 kts,
  and was downgraded back to a tropical storm only 12 hours after being
  upgraded to hurricane status.   Linda's track turned toward the west
  and the storm steadily weakened, the last advisory being issued at
  2100 UTC on 17 September.

     The official storm report on Hurricane Linda, written by Jack Beven,
  is now available online at the following link:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003linda.shtml?>



                             HURRICANE MARTY
                                 (TC-13E)
                            19 - 25 September
                  -------------------------------------

     Hurricane Marty became the second hurricane in less than a month to
  affect the Baja California Peninsula.  Whereas Ignacio in late August
  had moved to the east of Cabo San Lucas, eventually making landfall
  north of La Paz and dissipating over the southern portion of the
  peninsula, Marty moved directly over the Cabo as a Category 2 hurricane
  and moved up the entire eastern shore of Baja California, reaching the
  upper reaches of the Gulf of California as a tropical storm.  The system
  then weakened to a depression and meandered about the northern Gulf for
  a couple of days before dissipating.

     The Mexican government reported that Marty was responsible for twelve
  deaths in the country.  Five lives were lost when a fishing vessel sank
  while the remainder of the fatalities were due to flash flooding along
  rivers over the southern peninsula.  Some articles about the effects
  of Marty can be found at the following URL:

     http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>

     The official NHC storm report on Hurricane Marty, written by James
  Franklin, is available online at the following link:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003marty.shtml?>

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for September:  3 tropical depressions **
                           2 typhoons
                           1 super typhoon

  ** - None of these were classified as tropical depressions by JTWC.  One
       of these was named by PAGASA and treated as a tropical depression
       by some of the other Asian TCWCs; two others were classified as
       tropical depressions by JMA only.


                         Sources of Information
                         ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
  National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
  Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).  A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


              Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for September
              -------------------------------------------------

     As the month of September opened, intense Typhoon Dujuan was passing
  just south of the southern tip of Taiwan.  A couple of days later a
  somewhat weaker typhoon made landfall in southeastern China near Hong
  Kong.  The complete report on Typhoon Dujuan was included in the August
  tropical cyclone summary.   Three typhoons came to life during September
  with Super Typhoon Maemi by far the most significant.  The intense storm
  peaked at 150 kts on the 10th, and although somewhat weaker by the time
  it landed in South Korea, Maemi still caused much destruction and loss
  of life in that nation.   The other September typhoons, Choi-wan and
  Koppu, both were typhoons of moderate intensity which pursued generally
  northeasterly tracks that carried them southeast of Japan into the
  open North Pacific.

     In addition to the typhoons, three other systems were classified as
  tropical depressions by one or more of the Asian TCWCs, although not by
  JTWC.  The first of these was tracked as a tropical depression by JMA
  only on the 2nd and 3rd as it moved generally northward several hundred
  miles east of the Northern Marianas.  JTWC had assigned this area a
  fair development potential on 31 August, but downgraded it to poor on
  1 September.

     Another system which only JMA referenced as a tropical depression
  formed on 12 September at a fairly high latitude about 200 nm southeast
  of Tokyo.  JTWC initially assigned this system a fair potential for
  development, but no TCFA was issued.  The system consisted of a well-
  defined fully-exposed LLCC with associated convection displaced to the
  southeast.  Shear was relatively weak, but there was very little
  divergence over the area.  (No track was given for this system in the
  companion cyclone tracks file.)

     The third tropical depression was named Quiel by PAGASA.  This system,
  as tracked by PAGASA, formed well to the east of the Philippines and
  eventually tracked into the northern South China Sea.  However, there was
  a "jump" of four degrees of longitude on 17 September.  This was another
  confusing "monsoon mess" situation similar to that which had occurred in
  August with Tropical Depression Lakay and Tropical Storm Vamco.  A second
  circulation arose in the general region which PAGASA dubbed Roskas and
  which subsequently became Typhoon Choi-wan.   More details on Quiel can
  be found in the September tropical cyclone tracks file.

     The reports on Typhoons Maemi, Choi-wan and Koppu were written by
  Kevin Boyle and with significant contributions by Huang Chunliang.  A
  special thanks to these gentlemen for their assistance.   Also included
  below is a report sent by Huang Chunliang concerning rainfall associated
  with a South China Sea system, probably a monsoon depression, in mid-
  September.



                          SUPER TYPHOON MAEMI
                         (TC-15W / 0314 / POGI)
                            3 - 15 September
               ------------------------------------------

  Maemi: contributed by DPR (North) Korea is the cicada, a type of insect
         which chirps during the summer months when typhoons threaten
         Korea

  Pogi: PAGASA name, means 'handsome'

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Super Typhoon Maemi's explosive career began when an area of
  convection formed approximately 160 nm southeast of Yap (7.6N, 140.3E).
  This suspect area was noted in JTWC's STWO issued at 0600 UTC on
  2 September, having persisted for the previous 12 hours.  At this time
  microwave imagery, combined with a QuikScat pass, indicated a broad
  surface trough while animated multi-spectral satellite pictures revealed
  cycling and disorganised convection.  Upper-air analyses showed both
  diffluence and shearing conditions to be moderate.   The potential for
  the disturbance's development during the next 24 hours was assessed as
  poor.   This was upgraded to fair status at 04/1300 UTC when convection
  was seen to become better organised in enhanced satellite animations,
  and a 04/0731 UTC QuikScat pass revealed a weak, broad and elongated
  LLCC.  Guam was reporting light winds from the northwest and surface
  pressures of 1009 mb; the centre of the disturbance was located
  approximately 310 nm to the southeast.  Shearing conditions were clearly
  evident in animated satellite images, and 200-mb charts from the
  University of Wisconsin CIMSS were showing 20-30 kts of northeasterly
  shear over the system.  Despite this, JTWC issued a TCFA at 05/0200 UTC
  after a 04/2211 UTC SSM/I pass depicted deep convective bands in the
  southern quadrants wrapping into the LLCC.

     Warnings were initiated at 05/1800 UTC on Tropical Depression 15W,
  located approximately 65 nm west-northwest of Guam.  At that time a
  marked increase in deep convection was noted over the LLCC in enhanced
  infrared satellite imagery.  TD-15W intensified at a climatological rate
  as it moved west-northwestward at 15 kts under the steering influence of
  a low to mid-level ridge north-northeast of the system.  The depression
  was upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm on the second warning, issued at
  06/0000 UTC, based on a 40-kt QuikScat observation and CI estimates of
  30 kts and 45 kts.  The Prognostic Reasoning message issued by JTWC at
  this time called for TS-15W to continue moving west-northwestward through
  96 hours.  After 96 hours a deep trough over eastern China was expected
  to weaken the mid-level ridge over western China, causing the tropical
  cyclone to change to a north-northwesterly heading.  In the meantime,
  the storm was predicted to intensify due to favourable outflow and shear
  conditions.


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     Tropical Storm 15W continued moving west-northwestward at 13 kts,
  arriving at a position approximately 230 nm west-northwest of Guam by
  0600 UTC on 6 September.    At this time JMA upgraded the system to
  tropical storm intensity and assigned the name Maemi.   Upper-level
  analysis charts indicated that the environment remained conducive to
  further strengthening, and the MSW increased by five knots on the next
  two warnings, issued at 1200 UTC and 1800 UTC, to 45 kts and 50 kts,
  respectively.  During this period the storm tracked northwestward
  before reverting back to its original west-northwesterly heading at
  07/0000 UTC, by which time the maximum intensity had risen to 60 kts.
  Maemi became a typhoon at 07/1200 UTC when located approximately 650 nm
  southeast of Okinawa, Japan.  Only a 5-kt increase in the MSW was noted
  during the 8th, and despite the system's becoming further organised
  (with an eye beginning to form at 1800 UTC as seen in enhanced infrared
  imagery), the overall intensity remained steady at 75 kts until the 9th.
  Then Maemi got down to some serious intensification.  PAGASA had little
  cause for concern, except for enhancement of the southwest monsoon, as
  it was clear by this time that Typhoon Pogi (their internal name) was
  curving away from the Philippines.

     In fact, by 0000 UTC on 9 September Typhoon Maemi/Pogi had turned to a
  northwesterly heading.  The 16-nm irregular eye, as depicted in a SSM/I
  pass at 08/2253 UTC, was centred approximately 305 nm south-southeast of
  Okinawa.  Rapid strengthening had already begun with the MSW jumping
  from 75 kts to 90 kts.  The MSW took a bigger jump to 115 kts at 09/0600
  UTC, and by 09/1200 UTC Maemi was a super typhoon with a MSW of 130 kts.
  JTWC's wind distribution on the 1200 UTC warning (#16) indicated that 
  Maemi was a fairly small cyclone with 100-kt winds extending 20 nm from 
  the centre and a gale radius of 130 nm.  Super Typhoon Maemi was expected
  to be influenced by the mid-level ridge to the north-northeast for at 
  least another 24 hours or so before turning poleward into a weakness 
  induced by a shortwave trough over China.  This trough was expected to 
  engage Maemi and turn the storm northeastward between Korea and Japan.
  
     At 0000 UTC on 10 September Super Typhoon Maemi was approaching the
  southern part of the Ryukyu Island chain and passing approximately 180 nm
  south of Okinawa, Japan, moving on a northwesterly heading at a slower
  pace of 5 kts.  However, Maemi was not to make its closest point of
  approach to Okinawa for another 36 hours.  Animated water vapour imagery
  showed that outflow from the northwest quadrant had merged into the
  upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of the major shortwave trough over
  eastern China.   This had the effect of whisking away the cyclone's
  exhaust, and by 10/0000 UTC the MSW had reached monumental proportions.
  Based on CI estimates of 127, 140 and 155 kts, the MSW reached a peak of
  150 kts, gusting to 180 kts.  Unfortunately, Miyakojima lay in the path
  of the super typhoon and the island had to endure extreme conditions
  while the eye passed by just to the northeast at 10/1800 UTC.  The lowest
  pressure recorded on Miyakojima was 912.0 mb at 1912 UTC.  The intensity
  began to fall at this point to 135 kts--no consolation to Miyakojima,
  however.

  Editor's Note:  The peak 10-min avg MSW estimates from JMA and NMCC
  were 105 kts and 120 kts, respectively.   PAGASA was estimating the
  intensity of Typhoon Pogi/Maemi at 100 kts at the time the storm moved
  out of that agency's AOR at 10/1200 UTC.

     Super Typhoon Maemi was turning poleward at 0000 UTC on 11 September
  as the steering flow influencing the typhoon changed.  This allowed the
  storm to creep a little bit closer to Okinawa, Japan, and the eye passed
  approximately 130 nm west-northwest of Okinawa.  At this juncture Maemi
  began to accelerate as it moved northward into the East China Sea, the
  MSW holding steady at 135 kts (although it had dipped briefly to 130 kts
  at 11/0000 UTC).  A definite weakening trend set in at 11/1800 UTC when
  Maemi lost its super typhoon title and the MSW dropped to 120 kts.  This
  was the result of increasingly hostile environmental conditions caused
  by the deepening trough encroaching from the west.
  
     The next day at 12/0000 UTC Maemi was located approximately 160 nm
  south of Cheju Island, moving smartly toward the north-northeast at
  23 kts towards the Korean Peninsula.  The MSW was still estimated at 120
  kts, but convection on the western side had weakened.  At 12/0600 UTC
  Maemi was nearing Cheju Island with winds still near 100 kts.  Six
  hours later the typhoon was located approximately 30 nm southwest of
  Pusan and was poised to skirt the southeastern coast of South Korea.
  Weakening continued, albeit slowly at first, but the Korean Peninsula
  took a significant amount of strength away and Maemi crossed South Korea
  as an 80 to 90-kt system.  By 12/1800 UTC Typhoon Maemi was undergoing
  transition to a extratropical system as it pushed northeastward at 24
  kts over the Sea of Japan.  This extratropical conversion was more or
  less complete six hours later and the MSW fell below typhoon intensity.  
  The circulation of the once-powerful Maemi began to fall apart, and
  multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated that the mid-level circulation
  centre had sheared 100 nm to the north-northeast of the LLCC.  The final
  warning from JTWC was issued at 13/0000 UTC; the last position was 40.5N,
  134.8E, or approximately 300 nm west of Misawa, Japan.  JMA declared
  Maemi extratropical at 14/0000 UTC and tracked the remnants north-
  northeastward to a position east of the Kamchatka Peninsula where the
  system had weakened to a 45-kt gale by the 15th.


  C. Meteorological Observations from China
  -----------------------------------------

     All the observations in this section were obtained from a report sent
  by Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.  A special
  thanks to Chunliang for compiling and sending the information.


  (1) Rainfall Observations from Taiwan (WMO stations)
  ----------------------------------------------------

  City/County               Station             Period       Rainfall
                            (WMO ID)            (UTC)          (mm)
  --------------------------------------------------------------------
  Ilan City, Ilan           46708           09/1600-10/1600    122.0
  Chu-tzu-hu, Taipei City   46693           09/1600-10/1600    120.5 
  Taipei, Taipei City       46692/58968     09/1600-10/1600    114.0


  (2) Rainfall Observations from Taiwan (Automatic weather stations)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------

  City/County               Station             Period       Rainfall
                            (CWB ID)            (UTC)          (mm)
  --------------------------------------------------------------------

  Ilan County               C1U61           09/1600-10/1600    227.5
  Ilan County               C1U52           09/1600-10/1600    201.5
  Ilan County               C1U63           09/1600-10/1600    186.0
  Ilan County               C1U51           09/1600-10/1600    167.5
  Ilan County               C1U67           09/1600-10/1600    167.0
  Ilan County               C1U66           09/1600-10/1600    160.0
  Ilan County               C1U62           09/1600-10/1600    123.5
  Ilan County               C0U60           09/1600-10/1600    123.0
  Ilan County               C1U69           09/1600-10/1600    122.5
  Ilan County               C1U59           09/1600-10/1600    111.0
  Ilan County               C0U64           09/1600-10/1600    108.0
  Ilan County               C1U50           09/1600-10/1600    106.5
  Taipei County             L1A81           09/1600-10/1600    220.0
  Taipei County             L1A83           09/1600-10/1600    163.0
  Taipei County             01A17           09/1600-10/1600    160.0
  Taipei County             C0A53           09/1600-10/1600    158.0
  Taipei County             L1A82           09/1600-10/1600    146.5
  Taipei County             L1A80           09/1600-10/1600    144.0
  Taipei County             C0A57           09/1600-10/1600    142.5
  Taipei County             A0A9M           09/1600-10/1600    135.5
  Taipei County             01A21           09/1600-10/1600    132.0
  Taipei County             C0A54           09/1600-10/1600    131.0
  Taipei County             L1A79           09/1600-10/1600    130.5
  Taipei County             01A44           09/1600-10/1600    130.0
  Taipei County             C0A55           09/1600-10/1600    126.0
  Taipei County             C1A9N           09/1600-10/1600    125.5
  Taipei County             C0A51           09/1600-10/1600    125.5 
  Taipei County             C0A58           09/1600-10/1600    125.5 
  Taipei County             C1A65           09/1600-10/1600    124.5 
  Taipei County             C0A9D           09/1600-10/1600    115.0 
  Taipei County             C1A64           09/1600-10/1600    112.0 
  Taipei County             L1A84           09/1600-10/1600    111.0   
  Taipei County             C1A70           09/1600-10/1600    105.0
  Taipei City               C1A69           09/1600-10/1600    143.5
  Taipei City               01A42           09/1600-10/1600    115.0
  Taipei City               01A43           09/1600-10/1600    115.0
  Taipei City               C0A9H           09/1600-10/1600    112.0
  Taipei City               C1A73           09/1600-10/1600    109.5
  Taipei City               C0A9C           09/1600-10/1600    107.0
  Hsinchu County            C0D36           09/1600-10/1600    146.5
  Hsinchu County            C1D40           09/1600-10/1600    122.5
  Hsinchu County            C1D39           09/1600-10/1600    115.5
  Hsinchu County            C1D42           09/1600-10/1600    113.0
  Hsinchu County            21D15           10/1600-11/1600    100.0
  Yunlin County             C0K24           09/1600-10/1600    141.5
  Miaoli County             C0E41           09/1600-10/1600    124.0
  Miaoli County             C1E47           09/1600-10/1600    102.5
  Taoyuan County            01C40           09/1600-10/1600    106.0
  Taoyuan County            A0C54           09/1600-10/1600    103.5
  Taoyuan County            21C08           09/1600-10/1600    101.0
  Chia-I County             C1M62           09/1600-10/1600    103.5


  D. Meteorological Observations from Japan
  -----------------------------------------

     The information in this section was also sent by Huang Chunliang.


  (1) Peak Wind Observations (from Okinawa)
  -----------------------------------------

  Station       Station   Lat    Lon   Alt  MSW   Time    Gust   Time
  Name          (WMO ID)               (m) (kts)  (UTC)   (kts)  (UTC)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Naha          47936    26.2N  127.7E  28   37  10/1020    63  11/1012
  Kumejima      47929    26.3N  126.8E   4   35  11/0740    71  11/0825
  Miyakojima    47927    24.8N  125.3E  40   75  10/1800   144  10/1812
  Ishigakijima  47918    24.3N  124.2E   6   42  10/1750    78  10/2006
  Iriomotejima  47917    24.4N  123.8E   9   36  11/0210    61  10/0041 
  Irabu         93011*   24.8N  125.2E  10   82  10/1950  

  * - JMA station code

  Note: Only stations that reported sustained winds (10-min avg) greater
  than gale force or gusts greater than typhoon force are included above.


  (2) More gust reports (from Okinawa & Nagasaki)
  -----------------------------------------------

  Station                WMO     Lat    Lon    Alt    Gust    Time
  Name                   ID                    (m)    (kts)    UTC  
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  Miyakojima, Okinawa   47927   24.8N  125.3E   40     85    10/1330
  Miyakojima, Okinawa   47927   24.8N  125.3E   40     91    10/1510 
  Miyakojima, Okinawa   47927   24.8N  125.3E   40    107    10/1550 
  Miyakojima, Okinawa   47927   24.8N  125.3E   40    117    10/1700 
  Miyakojima, Okinawa   47927   24.8N  125.3E   40    143    10/1740 
  Nago, Okinawa         47940   26.6N  128.0E    6     59    11/1500 
  Sasebo, Nagasaki      47812   33.2N  129.7E    4     59    12/0711 
  Hirado, Nagasaki      47805   33.4N  129.6E   58     61    12/0820   
  Izuhara, Nagasaki     47800   34.2N  129.3E    4     79    12/1020 
  Izuhara, Nagasaki     47800   34.2N  129.3E    4     90    12/1136

  Note: Above are those which were highlighted in the JMA local warnings
  and could not be regarded as the peak values.


  (3) Records (from Miyakojima, Okinawa)
  --------------------------------------

    (a) As was noted in Part 1, the station reported a peak gust of 144
    kts at 10/1812 UTC, which turned out to be the fourth highest daily
    peak that had ever been recorded in Okinawa, or the seventh highest
    daily peak that had ever been recorded in Japan (see Section d for
    the Top Ten).

    (b) The station reported a minimum pressure of 912.0 hPa (sea level) at
    10/1912 UTC, which turned out to be the second lowest daily value that
    had ever been recorded in Okinawa, or the fourth lowest daily value
    that had ever been recorded in Japan (see Section e for the Top Ten).

    (c) Rains of 58.5 mm recorded from 10/2021 UTC through 10/2121 UTC
    represent the peak hourly value for the station during the passage
    of Maemi.    Rains of 402.5 mm recorded from 10/0800 UTC through
    11/0800 UTC broke the former record 24-hour total ever recorded in
    September by the station.  A storm total of 465 mm was recorded from
    08/1500 UTC through 12/0600 UTC.

    (d) The Top Ten typhoons that brought the highest daily peak gusts to
    Japan have been listed below:

  Rank  JMA    Storm   Pk Gust        Station              Date
       TY #    Name     (kts)          Name                (JST)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------

  01*  6618    Cora      166    Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 05, 1966
  02   6118    Nancy     164    Murotomisaki, Kochi     Sep 16, 1961
  03   6816    Della     155    Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 22, 1968
  04   7009    Wilda     153    Naze, Kagoshima         Aug 13, 1970
  05   6816    Della     152    Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 23, 1968
  06   6523    Shirley   150    Murotomisaki, Kochi     Sep 10, 1965
  07   0314    Maemi     144    Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 11, 2003
  08   5612    Emma      143    Naha, Okinawa           Sep 08, 1956
  09   6420    Wilda     141    Uwajima, Ehime          Sep 25, 1964
  10   9413    Doug      136    Yonagunijima, Okinawa   Aug 07, 1994
  10   7705    Vera      136    Ishigakijima, Okinawa   Jul 31, 1977

  Note (*): It should be noted that the station located on top of 
  Mt. Fuji recorded a peak SSW gust of 177 kts associated with TY 6626
  (Typhoon Ida) on 25 September 1966.  But it was not included in the
  roster above since it was reported by a mountain station.

    (e) The Top Ten typhoons that brought the lowest daily minimum
    pressures (sea level) to Japan have been listed:

  Rank  JMA    Storm   Min Press      Station              Date
       TY #    Name     (hPa)          Name                (JST)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------

  01   7709    Babe      907.3  Okinoerabu, Kagoshima   Sep 09, 1977
  02   5914    Sarah     908.1  Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 15, 1959
  03   ----    ----      911.6  Murotomisaki, Kochi     Sep 21, 1934
  04   0314    Maemi     912.0  Miyakojima, Okinawa     Sep 11, 2003
  05   ----    Ida       916.1  Makurazaki, Kagoshima   Sep 17, 1945
  06   6118    Nancy     918.0  Naze, Kagoshima         Sep 15, 1961
  07   ----    Ida       922.6  Kagoshima, Kagoshima    Sep 17, 1945
  08   6314    Gloria    923.5  Ishigakijima, Okinawa   Sep 10, 1963
  09   6314    Gloria    926.3  Ishigakijima, Okinawa   Sep 11, 1963
  10   9609    Herb      927.1  Iriomotejima, Okinawa   Jul 31, 1996


  (4) Hourly Sustained Wind/Pressure Observations
  -----------------------------------------------

  1. Station: Miyakojima, Okinawa (WMO 47927)
  -------------------------------------------

  Latitude: 24.79 N    Longitude: 125.28 E    Altitude: 40 m

     The hourly MSW (10-min avg) exceeded gale force at Miyakojima from
  1300 UTC on 10 September through 0500 UTC on the 11th, except for a
  two-hour drop off when the station was in the typhoon's eye.  The peak
  hourly MSW of 75 kts occurred at 10/1800 UTC, shortly before eye passage.
  The minimum hourly SLP recorded in the eye was 913.2 hPa at 10/1900 UTC.

  2. Station: Irabu, Okinawa (JMA 93011)
  --------------------------------------

  Latitude: 24.83 N    Longitude: 125.17 E    Altitude: 10 m

     The hourly MSW (10-min avg) exceeded gale force at Irabu from 0900
  UTC on 10 September through 0400 UTC on the 11th except for 0100 UTC
  on the 11th.  The eye of Maemi did not pass over this station.  The 
  maximum hourly MSW of 76 kts occurred at 10/2000 UTC.


  (5) Rainfall Observations
  -------------------------

     Only a report highlighted in one of the JMA local warnings was given
  below due to my (Huang Chunliang's) personal time restriction:

  10/2000 UTC - 10/2100 UTC    Shimojishima, Okinawa   108 mm

  Note--Two important sources of this special report should be noted
  here:

  1. A special report prepared by the local meteorological service of
  Okinawa, which is under the control of JMA:

     http://www.okinawa-jma.go.jp/news/tifu0314/td0314.pdf>
     (Size: 318 Kbytes -- Language: Japanese)

  2. Raw data on the offical web pages of JMA (Japanese version):

     http://www.jma.go.jp/>


  E. Meteorological Observations from Korea
  -----------------------------------------

     Roger Edson sent along some observations from South Korea taken
  on 12 September through 1300 UTC.  A special thanks to Roger for
  passing along this information.


  (1) Rainfall Observations
  -------------------------

     Below are listed the daily precipitation amounts exceeding 100 mm.
  Presumably, these are the rainfall totals from 0000 through 1300 UTC
  on the 12th, around the time of landfall near Pusan.

  Station      Precipitation (mm)       Station      Precipitation (mm)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  Wando            119.5                Yeosu            214.0
  Suncheon         159.0                Jangheung        134.0
  Haenam           134.5                Goheung          273.5
  Jeju             231.5                Uljin            125.5
  Daegu            135.0                Pohang           131.5
  Gumi             118.0                Yeongcheon       122.5
  Masan            152.0                Tongyeong        139.0
  Jinju            250.5                Geochang         146.5
  Hapcheon         169.0                Miryang          159.5
  Sancheong        221.5                Geoje            116.5
  Namhae           401.5


  (2) Wind Observations
  ---------------------

     At 12/1215 UTC the Pusan Airport was reporting sustained SSE winds
  of 59 kts, gusting to 77 kts.  One hour later the same station was
  reporting sustained SSW winds of 46 kts, gusting to 62 kts.

     A very important wind observation was made on the island of Cheju,
  just off the coast of South Korea.  Typhoon Maemi's center passed just
  east of the island with much of the island in the eye.  Seongsanpo,
  on the east side of Cheju, recorded the minimum pressure of 955.1 hPa
  at 0700 UTC.  The station was in the eye with a MSW (10-min avg) of
  only around 30 kts.  The airport on the north coastline of the island
  recorded winds of near typhoon strength at 60 kts.  But Gosan on the
  western side of Cheju and in the western eyewall recorded a 10-min
  mean wind of 93 kts.  At 0600 UTC JTWC was estimating the 1-min avg
  MSW at 105 kts.  A 93-kt 10-min avg wind equates to a 1-min mean
  wind of 106 kts--very good agreement.  The Gosan observation also was
  very close to NMCC's 0600 UTC 10-min avg MSW of 90 kts, but somewhat
  higher than JMA's estimate of 80 kts.


  F. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Typhoon Maemi was described as the most powerful storm of the
  century as it tore through South Korea, and press reports indicate that
  at least 85 people died in that nation.  The Korean government deployed
  5600 soldiers to help rescue workers search for 25 missing persons and
  perform clean-up operations.  A total of 25,000 people were forced
  from their homes and had to seek shelter in schools and public buildings.
  South Korea's largest port of Busan was badly affected by the storm--
  eleven container-lifting cranes, each weighing 900 tons each were
  toppled and 6 metre-long steel containers were scattered around the
  port.

    Typhoon Maemi made landfall at high tide, and 282 ships were beached
  and wrecked by large waves.  At one beach a cruise ship converted into
  a floating hotel was flipped over onto its side--fortuitously it had
  been evacuated in time.  At least 18 empty fishing vessels were capsized.
  The world's largest shipbuilder, Hyundai Heavy Industries, reported that 
  giant waves threw a 200,000-ton offshore storage facility belonging to 
  Exxon Mobile into a 37,000-ton petrochemicals carrier being built by 
  Hyundai Mipo Dockyard for a German firm.  Both were damaged.

     Vast areas of farmland, cities and rivers were flooded as up to 460 mm
  of rain fell.  Up to 12,626 acres of farmland, including rice paddies
  and orchards, were flooded before the harvest, raising concerns that the
  price of rice--the country's staple food--might rise significantly.
  Widespread flooding also caused chaos on roads.  The few cars that did
  venture out were buffeted by strong winds as they moved cautiously with
  headlights and hazard lights on.  Many highway road signs were downed
  (some fell on vehicles), traffic signals were damaged, vehicles were
  seen floating down streets that were turned into raging torrents, and
  many roads were blocked or washed away by landslides.   One landslide
  derailed an express train travelling from Seoul to Andong, injuring 28
  people.  Navy divers were called in to search flooded areas for victims,
  and soldiers used buckets to scoop water from underground parking lots.

     Five of South Korea's nuclear power plants were shut down due to
  damage to main current transformers and power lines.  Fortunately, no
  radiation leakages were reported.    About 20 major factories in the
  cities of Ulsan and Onsan on the southeast coast, including two major
  oil refineries, were forced to temporarily halt operations.  Electricity
  was cut to 1.4 million households, but power was soon restored to the
  majority of these.  The power outage partially paralyzed telephone
  networks: both fixed-line and cellular networks were affected.
  
     Typhoon Maemi also passed through North Korea, but the extent of
  damage there is not known because the government has restricted the
  release of information.

  Editor's Note:  An OCHA report on the ReliefWeb website, dated
  22 September 2003, indicated that as of that date the confirmed death
  toll from Maemi in South Korea had risen to 117 with 13 still missing.
  The total damage estimate from the storm was place at US$4.1 billion.
  About 5000 homes were destroyed with an additional 13,000 damaged.
  Additional articles can be found at the following URL:

     http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND>

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle and Huang Chunliang)



                      MONSOON DEPRESSION RAINFALL
                           15 - 16 September
            -----------------------------------------------

     The following report was prepared in its entirety by Huang
  Chunliang of Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.  A special thanks
  to Chunliang for compiling and sending the information.

  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     JTWC never mentioned the system in their STWOs, neither did NRL
  list it as an invest area; thus, no temporary number was assigned by
  NRL.  JMA was the only agency that ranked the system as a weak tropical
  depression, as follows:

  15/0600 UTC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 110E
  15/1200 UTC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 110E
  15/1800 UTC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 110E
  16/0000 UTC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 21N 109E

  Judging by the satellite appearances, the system is probably best
  classified as a monsoon depression, in my opinion.

     Since the system was treated as a weak tropical depression by JMA,
  and since it caused widespread torrential rains in the coastal area of
  Guangdong Province and a few stations of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous
  Region, a brief report is included on this system.


  B. Rainfall Observations
  ------------------------

  Provinces/Region     Station         Period (UTC)           Rainfall
  ----------------     --------------  ------------------     ---------
  Guangdong            Doumen          14/0000 -- 15/0000     225.3 mm
  Guangdong            Doumen          15/0000 -- 16/0000     136   mm
  Guangdong            Shantou         14/0000 -- 15/0000     109.1 mm
  Guangdong            Shanwei         14/0000 -- 15/0000     146.5 mm
  Guangdong            Yangjiang       15/0000 -- 16/0000     126.0 mm
  Guangdong            Zhongshan       14/0000 -- 15/0000     222   mm
  Guangdong            Zhongshan       15/0000 -- 16/0000     172   mm
  Guangdong            Zhuhai          15/0000 -- 16/0000     142   mm
  Guangdong            Boluo           15/0000 -- 16/0000     123   mm
  Guangdong            Panyu           15/0000 -- 16/0000     123   mm
  Guangdong            Yangchun        16/0000 -- 17/0000     142.8 mm
  Guangxi              Lipu            16/0000 -- 17/0000     142.5 mm
  Guangxi              Jinxiu          16/0000 -- 17/0000     146.2 mm
 

  Note: In Guangdong Province, storm totals (14/0000 -- 17/0000 UTC)
  exceeded 250 mm in the cities/counties/districts of Zhongshan, Doumen,
  Shunde, Panyu, Zhuhai, Yangchun and Jieyang, with Zhongshan reporting
  the highest amount of 420.3 mm.

  (Report written by Huang Chunliang)



                             TYPHOON CHOI-WAN
                         (TC-16W / 0315 / ROSKAS)
                              17-24 September
               --------------------------------------------

  Choi-wan: contributed by Hong Kong, China, means 'colourful cloud';
            also the name of a housing estate in Hong Kong

  Roskas: PAGASA name, is the name for the screw--a piece of hardware

  A. Storm Origins:
  -----------------

     Typhoon Choi-wan did not take too long to develop out of an area of
  deep convection initially located approximately 480 nm south-southeast
  of Okinawa at 0130 UTC on 17 September.  Indeed, only 16.5 hours elapsed
  from JTWC's initial reference in the STWO issued at 17/0130 UTC to the
  first warning at 1800 UTC later that same day.  Animated multi-spectral
  imagery and a 16/2215 UTC microwave pass indicated that the area of deep
  convection was located on the northeast edge of a broad trough.  Even
  though the convection appeared rather disorganised, it was under an area
  of weak vertical wind shear and favourable diffluence aloft, so the
  potential for development at this stage was assessed as fair.  This was
  upgraded to good and a TCFA released when the LLCC was seen to
  consolidate and organise in both animated enhanced infrared pictures and
  microwave imagery.     The first warning followed at 17/1800 UTC on
  Tropical Depression 16W, located approximately 250 nm south-southeast of
  Okinawa, Japan.  Initial movement was toward the northwest at 8 kts.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     PAGASA had already assigned their internal name Roskas by the time
  of the first JTWC warning, and following JMA's upgrade to a tropical
  storm (40 kt, 10-min avg) at 0000 UTC on 18 September, the depression
  was christened Choi-wan from the international naming list.   Six hours
  later TD-16W (Choi-wan) was relocated westward to a position approxi-
  mately 285 nm south of Naha, Okinawa, based on the latest multi-spectral
  imagery and a 18/0130 UTC SSM/I pass, both which suggested two possible
  LLCCs associated with the system.  The Prognostic Reasoning Message for
  the system issued at 18/1200 UTC indicated a poleward heading as the
  developing system moved into southwesterly flow associated with an east-
  ward moving shortwave trough, located at the time over the Korean
  Peninsula.   TD-16W continued to consolidate and intensify.  An 18/1121
  UTC SSM/I pass in combination with satellite animations indicated the
  formation of a deep convective band in the eastern semicircle.  Based on
  satellite CI estimates of 35 kts and 45 kts, JTWC finally upgraded
  Choi-wan to tropical storm intensity with a MSW of 45 kts at 18/1800
  UTC.  For the past several hours Choi-wan had been moving northward at
  8 kts.

     By 19/0000 UTC Choi-wan was closing in on Okinawa.  The northerly
  heading had brought the system to a position approximately 75 nm south
  of Naha.  The MSW had increased to 55 kts and Choi-wan strengthened to
  typhoon intensity while crossing Okinawa around 19/1200 UTC.   The storm
  veered north-northeastward, crossing the ridge axis, but strengthening
  was forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours before Choi-wan would enter the
  unfavourable westerly wind flow.

     The intensity of Choi-wan remained constant with the MSW only slowly
  rising to 70 kts by 20/0600 UTC and to 75 kts twelve hours later.
  Outflow enhancement was noted in 20/1200 UTC microwave imagery, although
  a recent QuikScat pass indicated that the low-level circulation was
  slightly elongated while the microwave image revealed dry air entrainment
  from the west.  Typhoon Choi-wan had undergone a temporary track change--
  an eastward trek--as it rode over the mid-level ridge located to the
  southeast.

     At 0000 UTC on the 21st Typhoon Choi-wan was moving east-northeastward
  at a faster speed of 22 kts from a position approximately 365 nm south-
  southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Visible satellite imagery revealed a 12-nm
  diameter eye at this time.  The system had resumed its intensification,
  reaching a peak intensity of 95 kts at 21/0600 UTC.  By this time the eye
  had expanded to 45 nm in diameter with enhanced outflow continuing to the
  north and northeast.  However, microwave imagery at 21/1200 UTC indicated
  that the upper-level circulation was beginning to tilt slightly to the
  east of the LLCC.   Typhoon Choi-wan started to weaken as its movement
  settled into a northeasterly heading.    

     The MSW had dropped to 85 kts by 22/0000 UTC as shearing conditions
  in the mid-level westerly zone began to separate the deep convection from
  the LLCC.  Typhoon Choi-wan was accelerating northeastward away from
  Japan, being then centred approximately 250 nm east of Tokyo.  The
  associated deep convection decreased significantly as the intensity of
  Choi-wan fell to 80 kts at 22/0600 UTC, to 70 kts six hours later, and
  to below typhoon strength at 1800 UTC, by which time extratropical
  transition was complete and the last warning issued by JTWC.   The last
  warning position was near 39.4N, 151.1E, or 450 nm east of Misawa, Japan.
  The extratropical remnants of Choi-wan, as tracked by JMA, sped east-
  northeastward across the northern Pacific.  By 0000 UTC on 24 September
  the system had crossed the International Dateline and had weakened into
  a 40-kt gale south of the Aleutians.

  (Editor's Note:  The peak 10-min avg MSW and minimum CP as reported
  by JMA were 70 kts and 960 hPa, respectively.  CWBT also estimated
  the peak intensity of Choi-wan at 70 kts, whereas NMCC's peak MSW
  was higher at 80 kts.  Choi-wan/Roskas had exited PAGASA's AOR long
  before the peak intensity was reached.)

 
  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     The following meteorological observations were compiled and sent by
  Huang Chunliang.  A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the
  information.

  1. Peak Wind Reports
  --------------------

  NOTE:  All sustained wind speeds reported below are 10-min avg winds.

  (a) Station: Naha, Okinawa  (WMO 47936)
               Lat 26.2N, Lon 127.7E, Alt  28 m

  Winds reached a sustained speed of 36 kts at 19/1350 UTC with a peak
  gust of 60 kts recorded at 19/1157 UTC. 

  (b) Station: Nago, Okinawa  (WMO 47940)
               Lat 26.6N, Lon 128.0E, Alt 6 m

  Peak MSW of 36 kts occurred at 19/1240 UTC and the highest gust
  recorded was 62 kts at 19/1502 UTC. 

  (c) Station: Ojima, Tokyo  (WMO 47675)
               Lat 34.8N, Lon 139.4E, Alt 74 m

  Gale-force winds of 33 kts were reported at 1510 UTC on 21 September, 
  gusting to a top speed of 64 kts at 21/1934 UTC.
   
  (d) Station: Hachijojima , Tokyo  (WMO 47678)
               Lat 33.1N, Lon 139.8E, Alt 79 m

  A MSW of near typhoon force, 62 kts, was recorded at 21/1510 UTC, while
  a top gust of 116 kts was reported at 1434 UTC on the 21st.  A gust of
  99 kts, occurring at 21/1430 UTC, was highlighted in a JMA local warning.

  Winds first reached sustained gale force from the east-northeast at
  21/1300 UTC, increasing to storm force by 22/1500 UTC.  By 1600 UTC the
  MSW began to ease while the SLP started to rise after the minimum of
  958.6 hPa was reached at 1533 UTC.  Winds continued at gale force for
  another two hours from the north until between 1700 and 1800 UTC when
  they fell below 35 kts.

  (e) Station:  Miyakejima, Tokyo  (WMO 47677)
                Lat 34.1N, Lon 139.5E, Alt 36 m

  A MSW of 57 kts was recorded at 21/1300 UTC with a gust of 80 kts at
  21/2108 UTC.

  (f) Station: Choshi, Chiba  (WMO 47648)
               Lat 35.7N, Lon 140.9E, Alt 20 m

  Sustained winds reached 50 kts at 21/2250 UTC while earlier at 2108 UTC
  a peak gust of 68 kts occurred.

  (g) Station: Ajiro, Shizuoka  (WMO 47668)
               Lat 35.1N, Lon 139.1E, Alt 67 m

  The MSW reached 39 kts at 21/1550 UTC with a peak gust of 61 kts at
  21/1632 UTC.

  The following gust reports below were taken from JMA local warnings
  and cannot be taken as peak values.

  (h) Station: Okinoerabu, Kagoshi  (WMO 47942)
               Lat 27.4N, Lon 128.7E, Alt 27 m

      19/0851 UTC   69 kts
      19/1046 UTC   81 kts
      19/1155 UTC   82 kts 

  (i) Station: Yakushima, Kagoshima  (WMO 47836)
               Lat 30.4N, Lon 130.7E, Alt 36 m

      20/0640 UTC   52 kts

 
  (2) Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observations
  -------------------------------------------

     Naha, Okinawa         985.8 hPa   (19/0608 UTC)
     Nago, Okinawa         983.8 hPa   (19/1004 UTC)
     Hachijojima, Tokyo    958.6 hPa   (21/1533 UTC)

  Note: Only stations that reported sea level pressures below 990 hPa are
  included above.


  3. Storm Total Rainfall Observations
  ------------------------------------

     The most torrential hourly amount associated with Choi-wan was
  recorded in Hachijojima during the 1-hr period ending at 21/1512 UTC,
  accumulating to 91.5 mm.  The maximum storm total for the period 19/1500
  UTC-22/0300 UTC was 281.0 mm.

     Other stations (in Japan) which received storm totals above 200 mm
  during the period 19/1500 UTC-22/0300 UTC were:

     Miyakejima, Tokyo          WMO 47677   288.5 mm
     Miyake-Ako, Tokyo          JMA 44227   316   mm
     Miyake-Izu, Tokyo          JMA 44229   291   mm
     Ojima, Tokyo               WMO 47675   211.0 mm
     Amagisan, Shizuoka         JMA 50427   228   mm

     A couple of rainfall amounts from Okinawa for the period 17/1500
  UTC-19/1500 UTC include:

     Naha, Okinawa              WMO 47936   139.5 mm
     Nago, Okinawa              WMO 47940   105.0 mm


  (4) Sources of Data
  -------------------

  1. Reports prepared by the local meteorological services of Okinawa and
     Tokyo, which are under the control of JMA.

  2. Raw data on the official web pages of JMA (Japanese version):

     http://www.jma.go.jp/>


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No reports of damage or casualties have been reported in association
  with Typhoon Choi-wan.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle and Huang Chunliang)



                             TYPHOON KOPPU
                        (TC-17W / 0316 / SIKAT)
                        24 September - 2 October
              --------------------------------------------

  Koppu: contributed by Japan, means 'cup', and specifically refers to
          the constellation Crater

  Sikat: PAGASA name, means 'popular'

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     A new area of convection developed near 10.0N, 141.0E, or approxi-
  mately 220 nm east-northeast of Yap Island.  This suspect area was
  mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 0600 UTC on 22 September.  The development
  potential of this broad circulation was assessed as poor.  This was
  upgraded to fair at 23/2130 UTC as organisation improved.  A surface
  analysis indicated multiple circulations in the monsoon trough, while
  at upper-levels a TUTT cell centred to the northeast was enhancing
  outflow.  At 24/0230 UTC JTWC issued a TCFA relocating the disturbance
  to near 14.9N, 139.4E, or approximately 360 nm west of Saipan. 

     The first warning on Tropical Depression 17W was issued at 1200 UTC
  on 24 September, placing the centre roughly 480 nm west-northwest of
  Guam.  The exact location of the LLCC was still highly uncertain at
  this point as the system remained embedded within the broad trough.
  Movement was toward the west-northwest at 10 kts and this heading
  continued into the 25th.  Intensification was slow and the MSW remained
  at 25 to 30 kts through the 25th and 26th due to the hindering effects
  of the TUTT cell located to the northeast.     During this time the
  depression began a slow northward drift, and then finally reached
  tropical storm intensity at 27/0000 UTC.  A northeastward acceleration
  had started in response to a shortwave trough heading toward Japan as
  well as to changes in the position of the equatorial and subtropical 
  ridges.

  (Editor's Note:  PAGASA issued only four warnings on this system as
  Tropical Depression Sikat, well before it had reached tropical storm
  intensity.     The final PAGASA warning was issued at 0000 UTC on 
  26 September as Sikat was moving northeastward out of the agency's 
  AOR.)


  B. Track and Intensity History
  ------------------------------

     JMA named this system Koppu just prior to JTWC's upgrade to a 50-kt
  tropical storm at 27/0000 UTC.  At this time it was located approximately
  234 nm south-southwest of Iwo Jima, moving north-northeastward at 16 kts.
  After some additional strengthening the intensity of Koppu remained
  static at 60 kts for a day or so.  Then, following the appearance of a
  60-nm ragged eye on the 28/1154 UTC SSM/I pass (infrared satellite
  imagery had revealed an eye feature earlier in the day), Koppu was
  upgraded to a 70-kt typhoon at 28/1200 UTC, by which time it had slowed
  to a 2-kt crawl as it moved through the ridge axis.  Earlier, Koppu had
  made its closest approach to Iwo Jima at 28/0000 UTC, passing 50 nm to
  the west of the island.

     Typhoon Koppu began to accelerate once again at 0000 UTC on 
  29 September.  At this time it was centred approximately 160 nm north of
  Iwo Jima, moving north-northeastward at 9 kts with the MSW estimated
  at 80 kts.  A peak intensity of 90 kts was reached at 29/0600 UTC, and 
  soon afterward, a weakening trend began.  The eye faded, deep convection
  weakened and the circulation took on an elongated appearance.  Koppu was
  now undergoing extratropical transition as it continued to accelerate
  northeastward at 20 kts.

     At 0000 UTC on 30 September, Koppu, barely a typhoon, lay
  approximately 390 nm east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Convection had
  almost completely sheared away and extratropical transformation was
  nearly complete.  Koppu was downgraded to a tropical storm at 30/0600
  UTC and the final warning issued by JTWC.   The remnant extratropical
  storm could be followed for several more days as it moved south and east
  of the Kamchatka Peninsula.  The final reference in JMA's High Seas
  Bulletins, at 0000 UTC on 2 October, placed the 50-kt storm near
  48.0N, 167.0E.
  
  (Editor's Note:  The peak 10-min avg MSW estimated by JMA and CWBT was
  70 kts, while NMCC's peak intensity was 80 kts.  The minimum CP estimated
  by JMA was 960 hPa.)


  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     The meteorological observations in this section were compiled and
  sent by Huang Chunliang.  A special thanks to Chunliang for sending the
  information.

  (1) Hourly Sustained Wind/Pressure Observations from Chichijima
  ---------------------------------------------------------------

  WMO 47971, Lat 27.1N, Lon 42.2E, Alt 3m) 

  NOTE: All MSW values are 10-min avg winds.

     Winds started to increase from the southeast at 1600 UTC,
  28 September, and reached gale force six hours later and storm intensity
  at 0400 UTC, 29 September.  During this period SLP pressure had been
  falling (about 3 mb per 3 hours) and reached a minimum of 974.6 mb at
  29/0300 UTC.  The highest hourly sustained winds (from the south-
  southwest) occurred at 29/0400 UTC, peaking at 55 kts.  Winds quickly
  dropped to gale force and had fallen below 30 kts by 29/0700 UTC.
 
     A peak wind gust of 108 kts was recorded on Chichijima, Japan, at
  29/0300 UTC and was the third highest gust measured at this station.
  Only two storms have brought stronger gusts:  Super Typhoon Marge of
  1983 (116 kts) and Typhoon Ben of 1986 (114 kts).  In the history of the
  station, only one typhoon has brought a MSW higher than Koppu and that 
  was Joan of 1997 (62 kts).  The highest sustained winds observed in 
  association with Koppu were 60 kts. 

     Other gust reports from Chichijima include: a gust of 69 kts at
  28/2224 UTC, 78 kts at 28/2320 UTC, and 93 kts at 29/0042 UTC.  All of
  these observations were highlighted in the JMA local warnings and cannot
  be regarded as the peak values.

  (2) Sources of Data
  -------------------

     This report was distilled, translated and edited from the raw data
  on the official web pages of JMA (Japanese version):

     http://www.jma.go.jp/>

  (3) Wind/Pressure Reports from Iwo Jima
  ---------------------------------------

     The MSW reached a maximum of 38 kts at 28/0600 UTC and 28/1500 UTC.
  A peak gust of 59 kts was recorded at 27/2100 UTC and a pressure of 982.1
  hPa was also reported at this time.  Also, a minimum pressure of 980 hPa
  was reported at 28/0000 UTC. These reports were from 3-hourly synoptic
  observations and cannot be taken as peak/minimum values.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     There have been no reports of damage or casualties resulting from
  Typhoon Koppu.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle and Huang Chunliang)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for September:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for September:  1 moderate tropical storm


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


           Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for September
           ------------------------------------------------------

     The tropical storm season in the Southwest Indian Ocean west of 90E
  got underway early with the formation of Tropical Storm Abaimba.  Such
  early-season storms are unusual but not all that rare in this basin.
  JTWC initiated warnings on TC-01S on 29 September and upgraded the system
  to minimal tropical storm status the next day.  The system intensified
  markedly on 1 October and was named Abaimba by the Meteorological Service
  of Mauritius.   Tropical Storm Abaimba meandered around at a very low
  latitude several hundred miles west-northwest of Diego Garcia and had
  dissipated by 4 October.



                          TROPICAL STORM ABAIMBA
                            (MFR-01 / TC-01S)
                         29 September - 4 October
               --------------------------------------------

  Abaimba: contributed by Tanzania

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     The precursor to this early-season tropical storm in the Southwest
  Indian Ocean was an area of convection which formed about 600 nm west
  of Diego Garcia early on 29 September.  JTWC issued a STWO at 0400 UTC,
  noting that satellite imagery indicated cycling deep convection near
  an elongated LLCC with the convection wrapping into the center.  The
  development potential was assessed as fair based on the presence of good
  diffluence aloft and weak to moderate vertical shear.  MFR issued their
  first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 01 at 0600 UTC, and JTWC followed
  with a TCFA at 0930 UTC which relocated the disturbance to a position
  approximately 590 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia.

     JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 01S at 1800 UTC,
  again relocating the center--this time to a point 505 nm west-northwest
  of Diego Garcia.  The MSW (1-min avg) was estimated at 30 kts, based on
  CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts.  The system was quasi-stationary with
  the LLCC located just east of the deepest convection.  At 0000 UTC on
  30 September MFR upped the MSW (10-min avg) to 30 kts, which qualified
  the system for formal tropical depression status.   JTWC upped their
  MSW estimate to 35 kts (1-min avg) at 0600 UTC; at the time TC-01S was
  located about 475 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia, moving southeast-
  ward at 4 kts.  The LLCC was partially-exposed to the northeast of the
  deep convection.  The intensity remained static for the remainder of
  the 30th as the depression continued moving slowly east-southeastward.
  It was forecast to turn to the southwest in 12-24 hours as a low to mid-
  level ridge built to the south.


  B. Storm History
  ----------------

     At 0600 UTC on 1 October the center of TC-01S was located roughly
  420 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia, moving very slowly southwestward.
  Poleward outflow had improved, and the LLCC was no longer exposed.  JTWC
  upped the MSW to 50 kts (1-min avg), based on CI estimates of 35 and 45
  kts plus QuikScat data.  Also, MFR and the Mauritius Meteorological
  Service upgraded the system to tropical storm status with the latter
  agency assigning the name Abaimba.  MFR bumped up their MSW estimate
  from 30 to 45 kts (10-min avg) at 0600 UTC.  However, at 1800 UTC MFR
  lowered the intensity to 40 kts.   JTWC's MSW remained at 50 kts, but
  the warning noted that there was evidence of some cooler air infiltrating
  the western side of Abaimba's circulation.

     A SSM/I pass at 02/0451 UTC revealed a fully-exposed LLCC with deep
  cycling convection located 100 nm to the west under 20-30 kts of north-
  easterly shear.  JTWC downgraded the MSW to 30 kts (1-min avg) and placed
  the center about 290 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia, moving south-
  eastward at 6 kts.   MFR's intensity remained at 35 kts, but this was
  lowered to 30 kts at 1200 UTC.   The factors responsible for Tropical
  Storm Abaimba's sudden weakening were adjudged to be a lack of upper-
  level outflow, increased vertical shear, and entrainment of cooler (and
  likely drier) air.  Interestingly, at 0600 UTC on 3 October, JTWC upped
  the MSW back to 35 kts (1-min avg) and forecast Abaimba to strengthen
  steadily, reaching 55 kts in 48 hours.  The storm at this time was
  located approximately 335 nm west-northwest of Diego Garcia, moving
  slowly southwestward at 3 kts.  Abaimba's organization was improving
  somewhat, and the system was forecast to move into a more favorable
  environment of increased outflow and reduced vertical shear.

     However, Abaimba continued to present a very poorly-organized
  appearance in satellite imagery.  MFR dropped the MSW to 25 kts at
  1200 UTC, although the bulletin noted that stronger winds were likely
  occurring in isolated spots in the southwestern semicircle.  At 1800 UTC
  JTWC once more dropped the intensity to 30 kts, but still forecast the
  system to recover and undergo some modest strengthening.  At 0600 UTC
  on 4 October MFR and JTWC decreased their MSW estimates to 20 kts and
  25 kts, respectively.   The JTWC warning indicated that CI estimates
  were 25 and 30 kts, and the agency's forecast still called for Abaimba
  to re-intensify to tropical storm strength.  This optimistic forecast
  failed to verify, however, and MFR issued their final bulletin on
  the system at 1200 UTC.  JTWC likewise issued their final warning on
  the dissipating system at 1800 UTC, placing the center about 460 nm
  west of Diego Garcia and moving west-northwestward at 6 kts.  All deep
  convection associated with the LLCC had dissipated during the previous
  twelve hours.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Abaimba.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for September:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for September:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for September:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp:// ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.   

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2002 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

  Huang Chunliang: (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
                    China Sea)
  E-mail:  huangchunliang@hotmail.com

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  saclarke@iprimus.com.au

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0309.htm
Updated: 26th October 2006

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