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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]


                               OCTOBER, 2003

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


                            OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Sluggish Gulf of Mexico tropical storm affects southern Mexico
  --> Eastern Pacific storms affect Mexican West Coast
  --> Year's fourth super typhoon forms in Western Pacific--executes
      large clockwise loop
  --> Minimal typhoon strikes Luzon


                ***** Feature of the Month for October *****
     The following monthly feature is a condensation of a paper presented
  at the 25th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in
  San Diego in 2002.  The author of the paper is Rich Henning of the
  53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, Mississippi, and
  who is also a staff meteorologist at Eglin AFB, Florida.  A special
  thanks to Rich for giving me permission to feature his paper and for
  proofreading it.

  A. Introduction

     The four Atlantic hurricane seasons of 1998-2001 have produced a
  climatologically unprecedented surge in very late-season, intense
  tropical cyclone (TC) development over the Caribbean Sea.  Since
  1950, only six TCs have undergone rapid intensification (RI) into
  very intense (Category Four or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale)
  hurricanes after 20 October.  Of those six, three have occurred since
  October of 1998.  The following table lists these six hurricanes which
  will be examined in the following discussion:

    Storm/Year       Dates and Amount of RI            CP        MSW
  Fox, 1952        22-24 Oct, 59 mb in 48 hrs        934 mb    130 kts
  Hattie, 1961     28-30 Oct, 71 mb in 54 hrs (1)    920 mb    140 kts
  Joan, 1988       21-22 Oct, 38 mb in 24 hrs        932 mb    125 kts
  Mitch, 1998      24-26 Oct, 85 mb in 60 hrs (2)    905 mb    155 kts
  Lenny, 1999      16-17 Nov, 49 mb in 42 hrs (3)    933 mb    135 kts
  Michelle, 2001   02-03 Nov, 38 mb in 18 hrs        933 mb    120 kts


  (1) 36 mb in 18 hrs
  (2) 54 mb in 24 hrs
  (3) 34 mb in 24 hrs
  (4) 1952 and 2001 were neutral ENSO years; the remainder of the above
      storms occurred in cold ENSO (La Nina) years.

     The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs
  around 10 September, so 20 October falls well after the normal seasonal
  peak, both in terms of the frequency of storms and their destructive
  potential.  In most years, with the exception of a few extreme
  climatological outliers (i.e., Kate of 1985), the onset of strong
  upper-level westerlies north of the Tropic of Cancer at some point
  during the month of October effectively ends the risk of any U. S.
  landfalling major hurricanes.  However, deeper in the tropics during
  some seasons, extraordinarily favorable conditions can become
  established and persist in the Caribbean Sea well into the month of
  November.  In fact, the most favorable conditions, both in terms of
  thermodynamic and dynamic factors at any time during the entire
  season (June through November) in the Atlantic/Caribbean Basin
  occurred in the Caribbean Sea after 20 October during the six seasons
  listed above.

  B. Discussion

     One thing all the six storms examined had in common was that they
  intensified beneath a persistent, very high-amplitude 200-mb anti-
  cyclone.   Such features are only likely to develop near the end of
  hurricane seasons associated with either cold ENSO (La Nina) or neutral
  conditions.  Such anticyclones are seldom found during warm ENSO (El
  Nino) events.  All six of the subject hurricanes except for Joan of
  1988 formed in the monsoon trough which typically migrates into the
  southwestern Caribbean at some point during October.  Hurricane Joan
  was an anomalously late-season Cape Verde system which formed in the
  central Atlantic near 45W but did not reach hurricane intensity until
  it had reached the southwestern Caribbean after transiting the northern
  coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.   Joan did not explode into a major
  hurricane until it moved beneath a large 200-mb ridge axis, but when
  it did undergo RI just off the Nicaraguan coast (38 mb in 24 hours
  on 22 October, 1988) the rate of intensification was extreme and only
  its movement over Central America prevented its central pressure from
  likely dropping even lower than the 932 mb recorded at landfall.  It
  is interesting to note that while mighty Hurricane Gilbert a few weeks
  earlier turned out to be a much more powerful storm (888 mb), it could
  be argued that Joan enjoyed a more favorable upper-level environment.
  An examination of upper-air charts shows a closed 100-mb anticyclone
  over Joan during its RI event.

     Studies by Halverson, Simpson, et al (1999) and Henning (2000) have
  suggested that some RI events may be triggered by convective-scale
  processes high within the inner core as outflow from adjacent, very
  tall, cumulonimbus towers converges.  This, along with the collapse
  of these convective towers, may help trigger the extreme subsidence
  associated with rapid eye formation.  The existence of a 100-mb closed
  anticyclone centered above the TC core would provide the perfect
  dynamic environment for this process to occur at levels just above
  the tropopause near 16 km.  Rapid eye formation subsequent to an
  unusually deep burst of core convection and convective collapse was
  the signature of Hurricanes Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999) and Michelle
  (2001).  Such idealized vertical stacking of the atmosphere from the
  surface to above the tropopause seldom occurs anywhere else in the
  Atlantic Basin, even during what is commonly thought of as the "heart"
  of the hurricane season (August and September).  Instead, it is a
  feature more likely to be seen in the interval of late October through
  early November in the western Caribbean, but only during cold or
  neutral ENSO events.

     The 2000 and 2001 Atlantic hurricane seasons were characterized by
  many rapidly translating TCs carried westward by strong lower tropo-
  spheric flow.  The resulting "bottom up" shear inhibited the develop-
  ment of several TCs that otherwise appeared to be good candidates for
  significant intensification.   A case in point was Chantal, which
  transited the western Caribbean during the climatologically favorable
  period of late August and was expected to be a good candidate for RI,
  but the vortex never slowed down long enough to allow Chantal to
  become even a minimal hurricane.  Another factor which permits these
  very late-season TCs to become major hurricanes in this area is the
  absence of these low-level easterly wind bursts.  Storms like Mitch
  and Michelle were able to "park themselves" beneath favorable upper-
  level synoptic regimes long enough for mesoscale and convective
  processes in the core region to unfold and allow the process of RI
  to take place.

     Thermodynamically speaking, conditions in the western Caribbean
  are always better than anywhere else in the Atlantic Basin, and
  these are usually optimal in late October.  Upper-oceanic heat content
  is very high in this region, and with deep thermoclines present,
  developing TCs can sit over a given location for days without the
  combination of mixing and upwelling significantly reducing thermo-
  dynamic potential, as would be the case in most other areas in the
  Atlantic Basin.  Also, by late October the tropopause has normally
  cooled a few degrees from mid-summer values, and with the high upper-
  oceanic heat content, the thermodynamic potential is maximized over 
  the western Caribbean during this time of year.

     During cold or neutral ENSO years, identifying the conditions
  discussed in this paper may aid in determining whether or not the
  required synoptic-scale prerequisites for a very late-season Caribbean
  RI event are in place.  However, before forecasters can reliably predict
  whether or not such an event will actually occur, more research needs
  to be done into the smaller scale convective and mesoscale processes
  in the TC core/eyewall region which ultimately dictate their occurrence
  or non-occurrence.

  C. References

  Halverson, J. B., et al, 1999: First TRMM satellite observations of
  a deep convective burst in Supertyphoon Paka (1997).  Preprints, 23rd
  Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, AMS, Dallas, TX,

  Henning, R. G., 2000: Observations of low-level wind maxima using GPS
  dropsondes and their link to 200-millibar clues identifying the onset
  of rapid intensification.  Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes
  and Tropical Meteorology, AMS, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 250-251.

  D. Contact Information

  Rich can be contacted at the following addresses:

     Major Richard G. Henning
     53rd WRS
     817 H Street - Suite 134
     Keesler AFB, MS 39434-2451

     E-mail: [email protected]

                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for October:  3 tropical storms
                         3 hybrid LOWs
                         1 major hurricane **

  ** - storm formed in September but reached intense hurricane status
       in early October

                   Atlantic Tropical Activity for October

     The 1950-2002 averages for the month of October are 1.64 named storms,
  1.08 hurricanes, and 0.34 intense hurricanes.  October, 2003, produced
  3 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.  This unusual
  distribution is due to the fact that Hurricane Kate, which began in
  September, did not reach Category 3 status until 3 October.  Kate peaked
  at 110 kts but fortunately remained in the central Atlantic and did not
  affect any populated areas.   Tropical Storm Larry formed in the Bay of
  Campeche and remained slow-moving, eventually moving southward into the
  Mexican coast.  Mindy was a short-lived minor storm which formed from a
  tropical wave near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic and
  subsequently moved northward and northeastward.  Nicholas formed about
  halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa around mid-month and
  moved slowly northwestward for over a week, almost reaching hurricane
  intensity at one point.  Brief reports on the three October named storms
  can be found below and contain the links to the official TPC/NHC storm
  reports for the individual cyclones.

     There were also several interesting systems during October which did
  not warrant the issuance of advisories, but which nonetheless were of
  some interest.  The first was a low-pressure center which formed off the
  southeastern U. S. coast during the second week of October and moved
  rather rapidly northeastward.  The LOW was east of Cape Hatteras late
  on the 10th and was accompanied by a significant amount of convection
  east-northeast of the center.  The system was treated as a gale in OPC
  marine warnings, although David Roth of HPC indicated that he didn't see
  any gale-force winds plotted on the OPC maps.  The system had become
  frontal by the 12th, and the LOW subsequently became a large storm in
  the North Atlantic on 14-18 October with pressures falling to around
  980 mb.

     The second system displaying hybrid-like features formed on 14 October
  east-southeast of Bermuda.  By the morning of the 15th the system had
  moved northeastward and was located between Bermuda and the Azores.  At
  this time I noticed that the LOW appeared to have some features of a
  subtropical cyclone, so I e-mailed a query to David Roth.  David replied
  that the system could be classed as a frontal hybrid--a MCS blew up over
  and north of the LOW's warm front.  The system appeared somewhat
  organized on 17 October with an eye-like feature in the middle of a ring
  of shallow convection, but by the evening of the 18th no convection
  remained near the center.  The peak winds reported in the track sent by
  David, based on ship reports, were 30 kts.

     The third interesting system formed northeast of the Bahamas in late
  October.  In its early stages it was associated with the remnants of
  former Tropical Storm Nicholas.  The official TPC/NHC storm report now
  indicates that this LOW absorbed the extratropical remnants of Nicholas.
  The system moved westward, crossing southern Florida into the Gulf of
  Mexico, and finally making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
  on 5 November.  Occasional bursts of convection accompanied the LOW,
  and gusts to gale-force were recorded in southern Florida.  After the
  system entered the Gulf of Mexico, development into a subtropical or
  tropical storm was considered a possibility.  Because of its association
  with Nicholas' remnants, there was some debate at NHC as to whether its
  name would be Nicholas or Odette in case advisories were required.  It
  was finally determined that the association with Nicholas was rather
  tenuous, and that if a name were required, it would be Odette.  Some
  time ago David Roth reported that he'd learned from Jack Beven that this
  system might be reclassified as an unnumbered depression.

     One final Atlantic tropical system--the Tropical Weather Outlook
  issued at 0930 UTC on 16 October mentioned a small low pressure system
  located roughly 500 nm west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.  The
  LOW appeared to be fairly well-organized, and on the 17th was
  accompanied by winds of 20-25 kts, but did not have enough organized
  convection to be considered a tropical cyclone.  Upper-level winds were
  not favorable for further development and the system had weakened by
  the 19th.

     The official TPC/NHC storm reports are all now available online, so I
  have not written the usual more detailed preliminary reports.  Links to
  the reports can be found below with the brief discussion of each named
  tropical storm.

                          TROPICAL STORM LARRY
                        30 September - 6 October

     Tropical Storm Larry was a sluggish-moving storm which formed in
  the Bay of Campeche at the first of October from the interaction of a
  westward-moving tropical wave and a cold front.  The wave had nearly
  developed into a tropical depression before making landfall along the
  eastern coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula, but when the LOW center
  redeveloped in the Bay of Campeche, cooler and drier air had been
  drawn into the system, giving it more of the character of an extra-
  tropical LOW, at least in the lower levels.   The pressure gradient
  between the LOW and a strong HIGH over the northwestern Gulf created
  gale-force winds over a wide area of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

     After a couple of days convection had increased around the LLCC,
  warming and moistening the airmass.   By late on 1 October the system
  had taken on sufficient tropical characteristics to be reclassified as
  Tropical Storm Larry.   Any movement of the tropical cyclone northward
  was blocked by strong HIGH pressure to the north, so the system moved
  slowly and erratically for a few days, eventually drifting southward
  and moving inland in Mexico near Paraiso in the state of Tabasco.  The
  peak intensity hovered around 50 kts for several days.  The Best Track
  file in the online storm report now gives the peak MSW as 55 kts for one
  six-hour period.   The remnants of Larry eventually moved into the
  Eastern Pacific as a non-convective remnant LOW, but no redevelopment
  occurred in that basin.

     Tropical Storm Larry's rains brought some flooding to the Isthmus
  of Tehuantepec.  According to the NHC report, there were five fatalities
  in Mexico attributable to Larry.  Some additional information on Larry's
  effects in Mexico can be found at the following URL:>

    The official TPC/NHC storm report, written by Stacy Stewart, can be
  accessed at the following link:>

                          TROPICAL STORM MINDY
                            10 - 14 October

     Tropical Storm Mindy was perhaps the most inconsequential tropical
  storm of the active 2003 Atlantic hurricane season.  The system formed
  abruptly into a minimal tropical storm from a tropical wave on the 10th
  of October near the northeastern tip of Hispaniola.  Mindy intensified
  to only 40 kts as it moved northward, skirting the Turks and Caicos
  Islands.  Mindy's entire life was spent in an environment of fairly
  significant southwesterly or westerly shear, and by late on the 12th
  had weakened back into a tropical depression.  The weakening system
  then turned east-northeastward ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
  and had deteriorated into a remnant LOW by the 14th.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Mindy, authored by Miles
  Lawrence, can be found at the following URL:>

                        TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS
                            13 - 23 October

     Tropical Storm Nicholas was the last storm of the Atlantic hurricane
  season to form in the main development region from a tropical wave.
  The cyclone spent its life in an environment of southwesterly shear which
  did not allow Nicholas to attain hurricane intensity.  However, the storm
  came close to reaching hurricane status, peaking at 60 kts on 17 October.
  Nicholas moved slowly generally northwestward or west-northwestward for
  several days while located several hundred miles to the east of the
  Lesser Antilles.  The system weakened to a tropical depression on the
  23rd well to the east of the Leeward Islands and had become more or less
  an extratropical LOW by later that day.  Nicholas' history as an extra-
  tropical system was rather interesting.  It made a large anticyclonic
  loop southeast of Bermuda, then moved westward, making another loop
  northeast of the Bahamas, and was finally absorbed into another LOW
  which subsequently tracked westward across Florida and into the north-
  central Gulf Coast.     (See introductory section above for more
  information on this system.)

     The official TPC/NHC storm report, written by Jack Beven, is available
  at the following link:>


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  3 hurricanes

               Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October

     Every month thus far in the Northeast Pacific (except for May) saw
  below-normal tropical cyclone activity, but October, 2003, rebounded with
  a burst of three hurricanes which brought the seasonal number of named
  storms and hurricanes to normal levels.  The 2003 season, however, still
  remains as the first since 1977 not to have produced an intense
  hurricane.  The average numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and intense
  hurricanes for the basin over the 1971-2002 period are 2.00, 1.16, and
  0.63, respectively.  October saw the formation of three named storms,
  all of which reached hurricane intensity.     Hurricane Nora was the
  strongest, peaking at 90 kts.  Nora made landfall along Mexico's West
  Coast but only after weakening to tropical depression status.   Olaf
  reached minimal hurricane intensity, weakened significantly, then
  recovered and made landfall in Mexico as a fairly strong tropical storm.
  The final hurricane, Patricia, remained well offshore as it pursued a
  westerly trajectory south of the Mexican coastline.   The official
  TPC/NHC storm reports for all the cyclones are now available online.
  A brief report for each storm follows and contains the links to the
  official reports.

                            HURRICANE NORA
                             1 - 9 October

     Hurricane Nora formed south of the tip of Baja California from a
  tropical wave which had moved off the African continent a couple of
  weeks earlier.  Nora moved northwestward while intensifying into a
  hurricane, then turned abruptly eastward while weakening to a tropical
  depression.  The system made landfall in Mexico as a 25-kt depression
  on 9 October just north of Mazatlan and quickly dissipated.

     Nora was the third Eastern North Pacific hurricane of the season
  to reach an estimated peak intensity of 90 kts, and probably was the
  best-organized of the trio.  Karl Hoarau performed a detailed Dvorak
  analysis of Nora and concluded that assigning a T-number of 5.5 around
  1500 UTC on 4 October at least did not break any Dvorak constraints,
  and that in his opinion Nora could have possibly reached an intensity
  of 100 kts around that time.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Nora, written by Lixion Avila,
  is available at the following link:>

                             HURRICANE OLAF
                              3 - 8 October

     Hurricane Olaf formed on the heels of Nora and operated concurrently
  with that cyclone.  Some of the forecast scenarios included binary
  interaction between the two systems, but this never materialized.  Olaf
  reached hurricane intensity briefly, then weakened significantly into
  a minimal tropical storm.  After this, the storm recovered as it moved
  northward toward the Mexican coast, making landfall just west of
  Manzanillo as an intensifying 50-kt tropical storm.  Olaf brought heavy
  rains to the states of Jalisco and Guanajuato.   No deaths were reported,
  but considerable damage to homes, roads and crops was sustained.  More
  information on the effects of Olaf in Mexico can be found at the
  following link:>

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Olaf, authored by Miles
  Lawrence, can be accessed at the following URL:>

                          HURRICANE PATRICIA
                           20 - 26 October

     Like most of its predecessors, Hurricane Patricia formed from a
  tropical wave that had entered the Pacific after crossing Central
  American from the Caribbean.  The season's final tropical cyclone
  developed quickly, being upgraded to a tropical storm on the second
  advisory, and reaching hurricane intensity only 24 hours after being
  classified as a tropical depression.  Patricia followed an uncomplicated
  westerly track well off the southern Mexican coast, and unlike the
  preceding three cyclones, did not affect Mexico.   The storm reached
  a peak intensity of 70 kts at 22/0000 UTC and began to weaken rather
  steadily thereafter.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Patricia, written by Richard
  Pasch, is available at the following link:>


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  6 tropical depressions **
                         2 typhoons ++
                         1 super typhoon

  ** - Four of these numbered by JTWC--of these, one became a tropical
       storm in Bay of Bengal.  Two systems classified as depressions
       by JMA only.

  ++ - One of these classified as a typhoon by JTWC only

                Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October

     The waters of the Northwest Pacific basin were quite active during the
  month of October.  Three typhoons developed--Ketsana, Parma and Melor--
  with Parma briefly becoming the year's fourth super typhoon.   Ketsana
  and Parma remained at sea and did not significantly affect any islands.
  Melor struck northeastern Luzon in the Philippines but apparently was
  not destructive.   Reports on all three typhoons are included below.
  Reports follow also on two tropical depressions which caused heavy rain-
  fall in Taiwan and Japan, respectively.  One of these was unnumbered by
  JTWC, but the other was classified as a tropical depression by that
  agency and designated Tropical Depression 19W.  The reports on both these
  depressions were sent by Huang Chunaling--a special thanks to Chunliang
  for compiling and sending the information.   A special thanks also to
  Kevin Boyle for writing the reports on Typhoons Ketsana and Melor.

     In addition to these two tropical depressions, four other systems were
  classified as tropical depressions by various TCWCs.  Tropical Depression
  18W formed on 6 October in the northern South China Sea about 300 nm
  southeast of Hong Kong.  This system was very slow-moving and meandered
  around in the South China Sea for several days.  The final warning from 
  JTWC at 10/0600 UTC placed the center 125 nm south of Hong Kong.  The 
  highest 1-min avg MSW reported by JTWC was 25 kts, but JMA carried the 
  system for several days as a 30-kt depression.  The Guangzhou Regional
  Meteorological Centre (GRMC) also briefly estimated the depression's 
  intensity at 30 kts (10-min avg).  The system had a very broad center and
  was difficult to track--there were numerous discrepancies in the center
  position as reported by the various warning centres.

     Tropical Depression 22W, named Ursula by PAGASA, formed on 22 October
  about 400 nm west-southwest of Manila.  TD-19W/Ursula drifted generally
  eastward without any further development.   The depression crossed
  northern Palawan Island and had reached the general area of Panay and
  Negros Islands before dissipating on the 24th.  The final warning from
  PAGASA at 24/0000 UTC located the center about 300 nm south-southeast of
  Manila.  PAGASA and JMA estimated TD-19W/Ursula's intensity (10-min avg)
  at 30 kts, but JTWC's highest reported MSW was only 25 kts.

     Tropical Depression 23W formed in the Gulf of Thailand on 23 October.
  This system eventually moved northwestward, crossing Thailand and
  emerging into the Bay of Bengal, where it became a minimal tropical storm
  before eventually making landfall in eastern India.  Since this cyclone
  reached its peak intensity in the Bay of Bengal, the report is included
  in the section of this summary covering the North Indian Ocean basin.

     A low pressure system in the vicinity of 16N, 152E, well east of the
  Marianas, was classified as a weak tropical depression by JMA on the
  16th of October.  This LOW remained quasi-stationary and had weakened
  into a low-pressure area by the 17th.  No track was included for this
  system in the accompanying tropical cyclone tracks file for October.

                           TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                              5 - 7 October

  A. Synopsis

     JMA's High Seas Bulletin issued at 05/0000 UTC mentioned a weak
  tropical depression located about 450 nm southeast of the southern
  tip of Taiwan.  Apparently there was a broad trough of low pressure
  in the region with several possible LLCCs.  At 0600 UTC the system
  was relocated far to the west, southwest of Taiwan.  Then, at
  1200 UTC it was relocated well to the east to a position about 150 nm
  southeast of Taiwan's southern tip.   The system remained in this
  vicinity for a day or two as it edged a little closer to Taiwan.
  At 06/1800 UTC the system had reached a point only about 35 nm
  southeast of the island.  The final reference to the system was at
  07/0000 UTC.  Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau also treated the LOW
  as a tropical depression, issuing bulletins from 05/1800 UTC until
  07/0600 UTC, when it was downgraded to a low-pressure area.  JTWC
  never issued warnings on the system, but did issue a TCFA at
  05/1700 UTC.  The TCFA was subsequently cancelled at 06/1000 UTC
  when the system appeared to be weakening.

  B. Rainfall Observations

     The depression was responsible for some fairly significant rains
  on the island of Taiwan.  Huang Chunliang compiled and sent the
  following rainfall information on this system.

  1. WMO stations (only amounts > 50 mm are given):

  Station               City/County      Period (UTC)         Rainfall
  --------------------  ---------------  -------------------  ---------
  Ilan (WMO 46708)      Ilan City        05/1600 - 06/1600    61.0 mm
  An Bu (WMO 46691)     Taipei City      05/1600 - 06/1600    54.0 mm
  Suao (WMO 46706)      Ilan City        05/1600 - 06/1600    50.5 mm

  2. Automatic weather stations (only amounts > 100 mm are given):

  CWB Station ID        City/County      Period               Rainfall
  --------------------  ---------------  -------------------  ---------
  C1U58                 Ilan County      05/1600 - 06/1600    153.0 mm
  C0A55                 Taipei County    05/1600 - 06/1600    122.5 mm
  C1U59                 Ilan County      05/1600 - 06/1600    113.0 mm
  C1U69                 Ilan County      05/1600 - 06/1600    103.5 mm
  C1A65                 Taipei County    05/1600 - 06/1600    101.0 mm

  (Report written by Gary Padgett and Huang Chunliang)

                           TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                             12 - 13 October

  A. Introduction

     Tropical Depression 19W was a system which formed in subtropical
  latitudes and moved northeastward skirting the southern coast of Japan.
  It seems that JTWC was the only warning agency which classified this
  system as a tropical depression operationally.    Huang Chunliang
  discovered a detailed report which JMA had prepared on this system and
  used it as a basis for a report which he sent me.  Although treated
  as an extratropical LOW by JMA operationally, Chunliang notes that some
  Japanese websites referred to this system as a subtropical depression.

     The initial JTWC warning, issued at 12/0000 UTC, located the center
  approximately 180 nm south of Sasebo, Japan.  Convection was building
  over a LLCC which had formerly been a weakening extratropical LOW,
  suggesting that transition to a warm-core system was taking place.
  TD-19W moved generally northeastward, skirting the southern coastlines
  of Shikoku and Honshu.  A cold front was approaching from the northwest
  and overtook the LOW about the time it reached the coast of the main
  Japanese island of Honshu.    The final JTWC warning was issued at
  0000 UTC on 13 October.  The center had moved inland south of Kyoto and
  weakened, and was located approximately 205 nm west-southwest of Tokyo.

     The remainder of this summary of TD-19W is based on the very detailed
  report prepared by Huang Chunliang.

  B. Daily Rainfall Observations

     No WMO station reported a 24-hour total exceeding 100 mm.  The highest
  daily total of any WMO station was 82.0 mm from Tokushima in Tokushima
  Prefecture (WMO 47895) during the period 11/1500 - 12/1500 UTC.  Several
  JMA stations recorded 24-hourly amounts exceeding 100 mm:

  Station     Prefecture        JMA Code       Alt (m)       Rainfall (mm)
  Hakone         Kanagawa       46161           850              126
  Tomogashima    Wakayama       65036            43              101
  Ikegawa        Kochi          74101           150              285
  Fukuharaasahi  Tokushima      71211           290              149

  The first two entries were for the 24-hour period 12/1500 - 13/1500
  UTC; the latter two for the 24 hours ending at 12/1500 UTC.  The 285 mm
  at Ikegawa broke the former October record for daily rainfall amounts
  at the station.

  C. Peak Hourly Rainfall Observations

     The only WMO station to record an hourly rainfall exceeding 50 mm
  was Tokyo (WMO 47662).  Between 0435 and 0535 UTC on 13 October the
  station recorded 57.5 mm of rain.   Out of this amount, 19.0 mm fell
  during a 10-minute period, breaking the former October 10-minute rain-
  fall record at the station, the previous being 13.0 mm reported on
  17 October 1987.

     Several JMA stations recorded hourly amounts exceeding 50 mm:

  Station        Prefecture       JMA Code         Alt (m)   Rainfall (mm)
  Edosaki        Ibaraki          40391              25           56
  Ryugasaki      Ibaraki          40426               4           60
  Nerima         Tokyo            44076              38           53
  Setagaya       Tokyo            44126              35           57
  Abiko          Chiba            45056              20           61
  Amikakeyama    Nagano           48796            1120           58
  Tomogashima    Wakayama         65036              43           88
  Ikegawa        Kochi            74101             150           52
  Nariyama       Kochi            74176             737           57
  Fukuharaasahi  Tokushima        71211             290           53

  D. Peak Wind Gust Observations

     None of the stations listed by Chunliang reported sustained winds
  exceeding gale force.  However, quite a few reported peak gusts in excess
  of 34 kts.  These are tabulated below:

  Station          Prefecture     WMO Code   Alt   Date/Time   Gust/Dir
                                             (m)     (UTC)      (kts)
  Tokyo            Tokyo            47662      6    13/0516      36/NNW
  Ojima            Tokyo            47675     74    13/0505      63/SW
  Hachijojima      Tokyo            47678     79    13/0442      47/SW
  Miyakejima       Tokyo            47677     36    13/0600      46/WSW
  Choshi           Chiba            47648     20    13/0717      52/NW
  Tateyama         Chiba            47672      6    13/0547      41/SW
  Katsuura         Chiba            47674     12    13/0604      54/SSW
  Chiba            Chiba            47682      4    13/0543      50/SW
  Yokohama         Kanagawa         47670     39    13/0510      60/WSW
  Shizuoka         Shizuoka         47656     14    13/0339      40/S
  Hamamatsu        Shizuoka         47654     32    13/0447      36/W
  Omaezaki         Shizuoka         47655     45    13/0317      57/SSW
  Mishimi          Shizuoka         47657     21    13/0404      40/SW
  Irouzaki         Shizuoka         47666     55    13/0426      53/SW
  Ajiro            Shizuoka         47668     67    13/0426      39/WSW
  Irako            Aichi            47653      6    13/0150      39/WSW
  Tsu              Mie              47651      3    13/0158      53/NNW
  Wakayama         Wakayama         47777     14    12/2316      40/N
  Shionomisaki     Wakayama         47778     73    12/2330      50/SW
  Maitsuru         Kyoto            47750      2    12/2210      35/NNE
  Hikone           Shiga            47761     87    13/0148      39/NW

  E. Ship Reports

  Date/Time    Lat / Lon     Call Sign     Wind Speed     Direction
    (UTC)       N  /  E                      (kts)  
  10/0600     29.4 / 131.7     JPFT            38            ENE
  10/0600     28.4 / 128.4     WDCJ            36            ENE
  10/1800     27.3 / 129.4     JPFT            32            NE
  11/0000     28.8 / 128.1     3EZF5           31            NE
  11/0000     30.8 / 132.2     JGES            37            ENE
  11/0300     28.7 / 130.5     9WCZ4           33            ENE
  11/0600     30.7 / 130.4     ELWD5           31            E
  11/0600     29.8 / 128.7     3ENO4           31            NNE
  11/0600     29.7 / 130.7     JGES            31            E
  12/0000     30.5 / 131.8     VNVF            36            SSE

  Note: Presumably these are 10-min avg sustained winds.

  F. Damage and Casualties

     Strong gusts triggered by TD-19W blew over cranes in two factories
  in Kamisu Town, Ibaraki Prefecture, during the afternoon of October 13,
  2003, leaving two workers dead and several injuries.

     The strong wind knocked three steel cargo cars off 9-meter-high cranes
  at the Kashima plant of the metal-processing firm Sumikin Weld Pipe
  Company around 3:25 p.m. (JST) in Kamisu Town, Ibaraki Prefecture.  A
  crane operator died about an hour later from injuries sustained after
  his car fell to the ground, while two others were thrown off but suffered
  only minor injuries.  According to the company's anemometer, wind gusts
  were blowing as hard as 117 kts about 200 meters away from the site
  around the time the accident occurred.

    Separately, about three kilometers away at the Kashima steel mill of
  Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd--the parent company's iron works of
  Sumikin Weld Pipe Companies--two cargo cranes were struck with one of
  them toppling in the strong winds and falling on a cargo ship anchored
  beside it.  Four other self-propelled cranes collided after being hit by
  the strong winds, injuring one operator.    A gust up to 78 kts was
  observed there around 13/1525 JST.

     In Kamisu Town 9052 homes were without electrical power after 13/1520
  JST.  One of the anemometers in the town reported a peak gust of around
  107 kts at 13/1523 JST.     Another anemometer located by the Gulf of
  Kashima, near the two aforementioned factories, reported a peak gust of
  approximately 87 kts around 13/1530 JST.  The last gust report from
  Kamisu Town came from Kashima also:  a peak gust of approximately 78 kts
  was recorded by an anemometer (alt 20 m) located in a Kashima factory 
  between 13/1500 JST and 13/1600 JST.

     After the on-the-spot investigations in the aftermath, the Tokyo
  District Meteorological Observatory concluded that downbursts triggered
  the strong gusts in Kamisu Town, Ibaraki Prefecture, and Narita City,
  Chiba Prefecture.  According to their investigative report, the
  magnitudes of the downbursts occurring in the two areas were estimated
  at F1 (10-sec avg winds of 64 to 95 kts) to F2 (7-sec avg winds of 97 to
  134 kts) and F1, respectively.  It should be emphasized that both the
  downbursts fell into the spots near the real-time center of TD-19W.

     An F0 (15-sec avg winds of 33 to 62 kts) to F1 (10-sec avg winds of
  64 to 95 kts) tornado occurred around 12/1000 JST, affecting a swath
  approximately 1200 metres long by 200 metres wide in Akano District,
  Aki City, Kochi Prefecture, with 19 houses being damaged.   The
  agricultural losses there were estimated at 18,582 yen.

     The low-pressure system unleashed a brief but punishing torrent on
  quite a few regions in southern Japan, where damage to roadways, rail-
  ways, riverways and trees was reported as strong winds and heavy rains
  buffeted there, resulting in landslides, train delays, etc.  There were
  at least two fatalities by drowning reported.

  G. References (Japanese Versions Only)

     This Special Report was distilled, translated and edited from the
  following JMA materials:

                           TYPHOON KETSANA
                      (TC-20W / TY 0317 / TISOY)
                           17 - 29 October

  Ketsana: contributed by Laos, is a kind of perfumed wood

  Tisoy: PAGASA name, is the Tagalog word for persons of mixed
         racial ancestry

  A. Storm Origins

     Typhoon Ketsana developed from an area of convection located
  approximately 395 nm west-southwest of Guam, and was first noted in
  JTWC's STWO issued at 15/0600 UTC.  The development potential was
  assessed as poor and remained so for several days as the broad LOW and
  its associated area of disorganised, cycling convection moved slowly to
  the west and west-northwest.  By 0600 UTC on the 18th of October the
  complex LLCC had shifted to a position approximately 530 nm east of
  Manila, Philippines.  The chances of a tropical cyclone developing were
  finally raised to fair at 18/0930 UTC, and then to good and a TCFA
  issued at 18/1300 UTC.  At this time animated infrared satellite imagery
  revealed that a westerly wind burst was converging with and enhancing
  the broad LLCC, which was moving very slowly west-northwestward at
  2 kts.  The first warning on Tropical Depression 20W was issued soon
  afterward at 18/1800 UTC.

  B. Storm History

     Tropical Depression 20W was located in the westernmost part of a
  large monsoon trough which also encompassed another disturbance on its
  eastern side.  This system eventually became Typhoon Parma (TC-21W).
  TD-20W was moving very little at 18/1800 UTC while located approximately
  450 nm south of Okinawa, but developed rapidly into a 35-kt tropical
  storm at 19/0000 UTC.  Following JMA's upgrade to tropical storm status,
  the name Ketsana was introduced from the international naming list.
  (PAGASA's internal name was Tisoy.)  Throughout the 20th and 21st
  movement was slow with only weak northeasterly steering currents
  controlling Ketsana.  Intensification wasn't so slow, though, and at
  20/1200 UTC Ketsana had outgrown its tropical storm phase and was
  upgraded to a 65-kt typhoon.  The centre's location at this time was
  775 nm southwest of Iwo Jima.  Infrared satellite imagery began depicting
  an eye as the MSW reached 80 kts at 20/1800 UTC.  This was backed up by
  a 20/1739 UTC AMSU pass which revealed a 16-nm eye. 

     The ragged eye had expanded to 29 nm by 0000 UTC on 21 October.  The
  storm's centre moved only 15 nm closer to Iwo Jima between 20/1200 and
  21/0000 UTC.  The slow motion continued throughout the day, as did
  strengthening.  By 21/1200 UTC the MSW had reached 125 kts, just shy of
  super typhoon classification.  However, intensification came to a halt
  at this point and 125 kts was to be Ketsana's peak intensity.  Ketsana
  maintained this intensity for the rest of the day and into the 22nd,
  by which time it was moving a little more quickly toward the north or
  north-northeast at 4 to 6 kts.  It also retained its symmetrical 20-nm
  eye, although some erosion was noted in the northeastern quadrant on a
  22/0000 UTC microwave pass.  Weakening began at 22/1800 UTC with the
  MSW falling to 115 kts, the eye now appearing in satellite images as a
  weak, ragged feature.

     At 23/0000 UTC Typhoon Ketsana was located approximately 600 nm west-
  southwest of Iwo Jima, moving slowly northeastward at 6 kts.  The 30-nm
  eye had returned once more, but a weakening trend had set in with the
  intensity falling to 100 kts by 23/1800 UTC.  A change was afoot the
  next day as the northeasterly motion began to accelerate and satellite
  imagery showed that shearing was beginning to elongate the northern part
  of the cloud pattern.  Also, a mass of stratocumulus cloud was evident
  to the northwest of Ketsana, indicating the presence of colder, drier
  and more stable air.  Another possible factor contributing to Ketsana's
  weakening was interference from a large disturbance (pre-Melor) located 
  to the southeast. 
     At 0000 UTC on 24 October Typhoon Ketsana was centred 500 nm west-
  southwest of Iwo Jima and moving northeastward at 4 kts.   A 16-nm
  diameter eye was visible, but the warning issued at 24/0600 UTC
  indicated that Ketsana was beginning extratropical transition.  The
  MSW had fallen to 85 kts by 24/1800 UTC, and drier air had penetrated
  into the circulation by this time.  The forward speed had doubled,
  reaching 16 kts at 25/0000 UTC as Ketsana kept up its northeast to
  north-northeastward heading.  At the time of the last JTWC warning at
  26/0000 UTC, the MSW had fallen to 70 kts and Ketsana was racing north-
  eastward at 34 kts over waters east of Japan.  The extratropical storm
  continued northeastward, turning more to the north on the 28th.  By 0000 
  UTC on 29 October the former typhoon was a weakening 35-kt gale located
  in the Bering Sea.

  (Editor's Note:  The peak 10-min avg MSW assigned by JMA was 85 kts
  with an attendant minimum CP of 940 hPa.  Ketsana's peak MSW estimates
  from NMCC, PAGASA, and CWBT were 100 kts, 85 kts, and 85 kts,

  C. Casualties and Damage

     Typhoon Ketsana was a threat to marine interests only and no
  casualties or damages are known to have resulted from the cyclone.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle)

                          SUPER TYPHOON PARMA
                           (TC-21W / TY 0318)
                        20 October - 2 November

  Parma: contributed by Macau, is a favorite Macanese food served in
         Portuguese restaurants in Macau--ham with chicken livers and

  A. Storm Origins

     The long, illustrious career of Typhoon Parma began on 18 October when
  an area of convection developed about 200 nm east-northeast of Guam.  A
  broad zone of convection south of a weak LLCC was noted, and an upper-
  air analysis indicated weak vertical shear and equatorward diffluence
  over the region.  The STWO initially referencing the disturbance was
  issued by JTWC at 18/0300 UTC, and at 0700 UTC another interim STWO was
  released, locating the system a little further north to a position about
  230 nm northeast of Guam and upgrading the development potential to fair.
  Satellite imagery revealed a very small area of deep convection
  associated with a well-organized mid-level circulation; maximum surface
  winds were estimated at 15-20 kts.

     At 1100 UTC on 19 October a TCFA was issued.  Convection was starting
  to organize over the LLCC, vertical shear was weak, and outflow was
  fair.  The MSW was then estimated at around 20-25 kts.   At 0600 UTC
  on the 20th, JMA classified the system as a 30-kt tropical depression.
  At 20/1100 UTC JTWC re-issued the TCFA, locating the system about 280 nm
  south-southeast of Iwo Jima.   Shortly afterward, the first JTWC warning
  on Tropical Depression 21W was issued.  The depression was tracking
  west-northwestward at 6 kts and the initial warning intensity was
  estimated at 25 kts.  The system was being steered by a low to mid-level
  ridge located to the east, but was forecast to veer toward the northeast
  after about 12 hours.   By 1800 UTC TD-21W was located about 240 nm
  south-southeast of Iwo Jima and was moving northwestward at 7 kts.  Water
  vapor imagery indicated increasing convection in all quadrants and the
  MSW was upped to 30 kts.

  B. Storm History

     The depression was upgraded to tropical storm intensity at 21/0000 UTC
  by JTWC, NMCC and JMA with the latter assigning the name Parma.   The
  LLCC was on the eastern edge of the deep convection and CI estimates
  were 35 kts.  By 0600 UTC Tropical Storm Parma was moving slowly north-
  eastward as a ridge to the southeast strengthened.   JTWC relocated the
  center 75 nm east of the 0000 UTC position based upon visible satellite
  imagery.  Parma's center at 0600 UTC was located approximately 250 nm
  southeast of Iwo Jima.   The cyclone continued to steadily intensify
  as it moved slowly northeastward, and by 0600 UTC on 22 October the
  center was located about 320 nm east-southeast of Iwo Jima.   The storm
  was exhibiting tightly-curved banding with outflow in all directions.
  JTWC (and NMCC) upped the winds to 60 kts, but interestingly, JMA
  upgraded Parma to typhoon status at 0600 UTC.  The other two agencies
  upgraded Parma to a typhoon six hours later.  Microwave imagery (85 GHz)
  from a TRMM pass at 22/1129 UTC revealed a ragged 40-nm diameter eye
  beginning to form.

     Late on 22 October Typhoon Parma begin to intensify rapidly.  The 
  MSW was bumped to 80 kts at 23/0000 UTC, to 90 kts at 0600 UTC, and to
  110 kts at 1200 UTC.   At the latter hour the typhoon was centered about
  535 nm east-northeast of Iwo Jima.  A 23/1031 UTC SSM/I pass indicated
  the presence of a 35-nm diameter eye, and CI estimates ranged from 90
  to 115 kts.  The northeastward motion continued, gradually accelerating
  to 17 kts by 1800 UTC with the storm located approximately 1500 nm west
  of Midway Island.  After a slight weakening at 23/1800 UTC, Parma's
  intensification trend continued on the 24th.   JTWC upped the MSW to
  125 kts at 24/0600 UTC, based on CI estimates of 115, 127 and 140 kts.
  Animated multi-spectral imagery revealed a 30-nm diameter eye with good
  poleward and equatorward outflow.   A 24/1023 UTC SSM/I pass showed the
  beginning of some dry air entrainment into the western side of the
  system, but this was not enough to keep Parma from continuing to

     The storm reached its peak intensity of 130 kts at 1200 UTC, based
  on CI estimates of 127 and 140 kts, making Parma the season's fourth
  super typhoon (per JTWC nomenclature).   It is very unusual indeed for
  a tropical cyclone to attain super typhoon status north of the 30th
  parallel.  Super Typhoon Parma was then located approximately 1265 nm
  west-northwest of Midway Island.  The storm's motion had become
  increasingly easterly with Parma moving east-northeastward at 22 kts,
  and by 1800 UTC the storm was racing eastward at 27 kts.  A 24/1435 UTC 
  TRMM pass depicted a 35-nm diameter eye, and storm-force winds extended
  outward over 100 nm to the northeast and southeast and out to 65 nm in 
  the western quadrants.   Gales covered an area almost 300 nm in diameter.
  The minimum CP estimated by JMA was 930 mb.  JMA's and NMCC's peak
  10-min avg MSW estimates were 95 and 90 kts, respectively.  Parma was a
  rare example of an intense typhoon for which JMA's intensity estimates
  exceeded those from NMCC.

     Parma did not remain a super typhoon for long--a 24/2248 UTC SSM/I
  pass depicted eyewall erosion in the northwest quadrant, so the MSW
  was decreased to 125 kts at 25/0000 UTC.  The storm's motion had by
  this time become east-southeasterly at 19 kts as it tracked along the
  northeastern periphery of a large mid-level ridge to the southwest.
  Typhoon Parma over the next few days would circumnavigate this ridge,
  describing a huge anticyclonic loop spanning 20 degrees of longitude
  and almost 10 degrees of latitude.   By 25/1200 UTC the typhoon had
  weakened to 115 kts, and the eye was not apparent in infrared imagery,
  although bursts of new convection were being noted.  Parma was then
  located approximately 500 nm north of Wake Island and was moving
  southeastward at 21 kts along the eastern side of the aforementioned
  steering ridge.

     The 26th of October saw Typhoon Parma weaken to minimal typhoon
  status as it moved past the ridge axis and changed to a southwesterly
  heading.  The system ran into some northerly shear, but a 26/0704 UTC
  SSM/I pass indicated that it was still vertically stacked.   The storm
  was moving south-southeastward at 9 kts at 0600 UTC, but by 1200 UTC
  the motion had changed to southwesterly at 16 kts, and to west-
  southwesterly by 1800 UTC.  The MSW was dropped to 65 kts at 1800 UTC,
  although water vapor imagery indicated that outflow was being enhanced
  by an upper-level trough to the east of the typhoon.  Parma at this
  time was centered approximately 175 nm north-northeast of Wake Island.
  The steady-state minimal typhoon continued moving westward on the 27th
  around the southern side of the steering ridge.  Satellite CI estimates
  remained at 65 and 77 kts, but a 27/0847 UTC SSM/I pass indicated that
  the system had strengthened during the past 12 hours and that a 60-nm
  diameter microwave eye had formed.  This was the beginning of Parma,
  Round 2.  JTWC upped the winds to 75 kts at 1200 UTC with the storm
  located 265 nm northwest of Wake Island.  By 1800 UTC Parma was zipping
  westward at 20 kts.

     The rapid westward motion continued through 28 October, becoming
  west-northwestward by 28/1800 UTC.   At 1200 UTC Parma was centered
  about 720 nm west-northwest of Wake Island, and although CI estimates
  were still 65 and 77 kts, the cyclone had moved into an area of
  favorable diffluence aloft and was showing continued signs of further
  intensification.  JTWC upped the MSW to 80 kts at this time, and JMA
  upgraded Parma to typhoon status once more.   Two significant things
  happened to Typhoon Parma on 29 October:  (1) the storm's heading
  changed abruptly from northwestward to northeastward, and (2) the storm
  reached intense typhoon status for the second time.  The recurvature
  toward the northeast was well-forecast.  A trough approaching from the
  west weakened the ridge and the typhoon increasingly turned toward the
  northwest.  By 29/1800 UTC the storm's motion had become northeasterly
  at 9 kts.  JTWC upped the MSW to 95 kts at 29/0000 UTC; satellite
  intensity estimates were 90 and 102 kts, and the system sported a
  well-defined 15-nm eye.  By 1200 UTC Parma was located approximately
  590 nm north-northeast of Saipan, and CI estimates ranged from 102 to
  127 kts.   The typhoon had become better organized with warmer eye

     Typhoon Parma reached a secondary peak intensity of 115 kts at 1800
  UTC on 29 October.  (JMA's and NMCC's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW
  values during this phase of Parma's life were 85 and 90 kts,
  respectively.)   This second intensification of Parma into an intense
  typhoon at a fairly high latitude (26N) was quite unusual, and another
  very interesting aspect of this phase of the storm's life was the track.
  From the point of recurvature at 29/1200 UTC until the typhoon had
  crossed 160E once more around 31/0000 UTC, Parma's track lay almost
  perfectly on top of its former trajectory of a week earlier.

     The secondary peak intensity of 115 kts was maintained through 0000
  UTC on 30 October.  Microwave imagery suggested that Parma had concentric
  eyewalls, but a 29/2314 UTC SSM/I pass depicted eyewall erosion in the
  northwest quadrant of the inner eyewall.   The storm was beginning to
  feel the effects of northwesterly shear, and its demise was rather
  rapid.   By 30/1800 UTC Parma winds were down to 85 kts, and the storm
  was moving rapidly east-northeastward at 26 kts from a position about
  825 nm northwest of Wake Island.   The typhoon was already beginning
  to interact with a baroclinic zone and was forecast to be extratropical
  within 12 hours.   Animated visible imagery around 31/0000 UTC indicated
  that the LLCC was exposed on the southern edge of the deep convection.
  Parma had crossed the ridge axis and had become decoupled from the mid-
  level circulation.  JTWC decreased the MSW to 70 kts, and the final
  warning from that agency was issued at 31/0600 UTC.   Parma at this time
  was located approximately 750 nm north of Wake Island, racing east-
  northeastward at 32 kts.  The MSW had fallen to 55 kts and animated
  water vapor imagery indicated that the system was completely extra-
  tropical.  The remnant extratropical storm continued to race east-
  northeastward across the North Pacific as it slowly weakened.  The final
  reference to the system in JMA's bulletins at 0000 UTC on 2 November
  placed a 30-kt LOW about 500 nm to the east-northeast of Midway Island.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Super Typhoon

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

                             TYPHOON MELOR
                     (TC-24W / STS 0319 / VIRING)
                        30 October - 5 November

  Melor: contributed by Malaysia, is the jasmine flower, a pleasant-
         smelling flower traditionally used to decorate ladies hair

  Viring: PAGASA name, is a Filipino female nickname

  A. Storm Origins

     At 0600 UTC on 28 October JTWC issued a STWO for an area of convection
  located approximately 220 nm north-northwest of Palau.  QuikScat data
  revealed a weak LLCC at this time and the development potential was
  assessed as poor.  This suspect area increased in organisation and
  convection, prompting an upgrade to fair development potential at
  28/1430 UTC.  This was followed by the issuance of a TCFA at 30/0330 UTC.
  The first warning on Tropical Depression 24W was released at 30/0600 UTC,
  locating the centre of the small system approximately 200 nm east of
  the Philippines.  The second warning, at 30/1200 UTC, upgraded the 
  depression to tropical storm status with JMA simultaneously upgrading and
  naming the storm Melor.  (PAGASA had already named the system Viring by 
  this time.)

  B. Storm History

     Tropical Storm Melor was moving west-northwestward towards the
  Philippines at 10 kts at 31/0000 UTC.  The MSW at this time was 45 kts,
  and Melor quickly outgrew its humble, pint-sized beginnings,
  strengthening to minimum typhoon intensity by 31/1200 UTC.  A large
  45-nm irregular eye was observed at 31/1112 UTC in SSM/I imagery.  At
  the time of the upgrade to 65 kts, Melor was located 190 nm east-
  northeast of Manila, Philippines, and still moving on a west-
  northwesterly path at 13 kts.  This west-northwesterly heading changed
  to northwesterly at 1800 UTC as a mid-level ridge began to build over
  southeastern China.

     There was room for more intensification on the 1st of November and
  the MSW strengthened to a peak of 75 kts at 01/0600 UTC.  By this time
  Typhoon Melor had turned toward the northwest and was crossing Luzon
  with typhoon-force winds, but signs of weakening were evident with the
  effects of landfall weakening the associated deep convection.  Also,
  clouds could be seen in satellite images streaming away from Melor's
  northern sectors under the effects of shearing.  The intensity fell to
  65 kts at 1800 UTC, and then to below typhoon intensity at 02/0000 UTC.

     At 0000 UTC on 2 November the downgraded Tropical Storm Melor was
  located approximately 370 nm north of Manila, tracking north-
  northwestward at 7 kts.  Multi-spectral and infrared satellite imagery
  revealed that the majority of the deep convection was concentrated in 
  an area north of the partially-exposed LLCC.  Melor managed to maintain
  a MSW of 60-kt through the 2nd as it turned northward, its ragged eye 
  feature clipping the southern coastline of Taiwan at 02/1200 UTC.  
  Following dry air entrainment, Melor's strength declined further with 
  the MSW dropping to 55 kts at 02/1800 UTC.

     Infrared satellite imagery at 0000 UTC on 3 November showed an untidy,
  messy circulation almost devoid of deep convection.  Tropical Storm
  Melor, now approximately 125 nm south of Taipei, Taiwan, was moving
  north-northeastward at 8 kts with a MSW of 45 kt.  This intensity was
  maintained throughout the 3rd, and despite Melor's forming a weak
  circular CDO feature, as seen in 03/1200 UTC infrared satellite imagery,
  the tropical cyclone was dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone
  over water.

     At 0000 UTC on the 4th Melor had weakened to a weak swirl of low
  clouds barely at tropical storm intensity.  Animated multi-spectral
  imagery indicated that the mid-level circulation had separated from the
  completely-exposed LLCC.  JTWC declared the system extratropical and
  issued the final warning, locating the centre approximately 245 nm
  southwest of Okinawa.  The remnant circulation could be seen being
  dragged off east-northeastward by a frontal system. The LOW passed well
  south of Japan during the 4th, and by 05/0000 UTC was barely discernible
  in satellite images.

  (Editor's Note:  It should be pointed out that JTWC was the only agency
  to classify Melor as a typhoon.  A peak 10-min avg MSW of 60 kts was
  reported by all the Asian TCWCs.  The lowest CP estimated by JMA was
  975 hPa.  JTWC's peak 1-min avg MSW of 75 kts occurred at 0600 UTC on
  1 November after the center of Melor had already made landfall in Luzon,
  so 75 kts could be a little questionable.)

  C. Meteorological Observations

     The following meteorological observations from Taiwan were compiled
  and sent by Huang Chunliang.  A special thanks to Chunliang for sending
  the information.

  Station          City/County          Period (UTC)     Rainfall (mm)

  Kenting          Pingtung County    01/1600 - 02/2100      554
  Checheng         Pingtung County    01/1600 - 02/1500      400
  Chih Pen         Taitung County     01/1600 - 02/2100      191
  Lanyu            Taitung County     01/1600 - 03/0000      142
  Dawu             Taitung County     01/1600 - 02/2100      182

     Melor broke a record in the history of Station Hengchun (WMO 46759/
  59559), the new one for daily rainfall recorded in November being
  430.5 mm (01/1600 - 02/1600 UTC, November, 2003).

     Station Lanyu (WMO 46762/59567, Altitude 325 m) experienced gusts
  of typhoon force during the passage of Melor.

  Station: Hateruma, Okinawa (JMA 94116)

  Latitude: 24.06 N    Longitude: 123.77 E    Altitude: 38 m

  Rainfall       Period (UTC) - November, 2003
  ----------    -------------------------------

    34 mm             03/1200 - 03/1300
    92 mm             03/1300 - 03/1400
    34 mm             03/1400 - 03/1500

     Melor broke two records in the history of the station, the new
  ones for hourly and daily rainfall recorded in November being 92 mm
  (03/1300 - 03/1400 UTC) and 181 mm (02/1500 - 03/1500 UTC),

  D. Damage and Casualties

     No reports of damage of casualties resulting from Typhoon Melor
  have been received.   The storm did strike Luzon as either a strong
  tropical storm or minimal typhoon, but not even the ReliefWeb's
  internet site contains any information about Melor's effects in
  the Philippines.  Therefore, it seems quite likely that there were
  few if any casualties and that damage was relatively light.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with contributions by Huang Chunliang)


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression **
                         1 tropical storm ++

  ** - treated as a tropical depression by IMD only

  ++ - visitor from Gulf of Thailand--treated as a tropical depression
       by IMD and Thai Meteorological Department

              North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October

     Two systems traversed the waters of the Bay of Bengal during October.
  The first of these was treated as a depression by the India Meteor-
  ological Department (IMD) only.  The second was Tropical Depression 23W,
  a visitor from the Gulf of Thailand, which reached minimal tropical storm
  intensity (per JTWC's analysis) before moving inland in India.  Huang
  Chunliang compiled and sent some rainfall reports from both systems, as
  well as some press reports describing damage in Thailand due to flooding
  associated with the early stages of TD-23W.  A special thanks to Chun-
  liang for sending the information.

                          TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                             6 - 8 October

     This system was classified as a depression by the Meteorological
  Department of India (IMD) only.  IMD upgraded the LOW to a depression
  at 0300 UTC on 6 October when located approximately 100 nm southeast
  of Visakhapatnam.  JTWC issued no warnings nor TCFA, but did assign
  a fair development potential at one point.  The system moved generally
  north-northwestward, and according to the IMD warnings, crossed the
  north Andhra coast near Kalingapatnam around 06/2130 UTC.  The system
  had weakened into a low-pressure area by 09/0300 UTC.  No peak winds
  were specified in IMD's bulletins, but it was classified as only a
  depression (25 kts) as opposed to a deep depression (30 kts).

     Following are rainfall reports from various stations in India:

  State/Union Territory  Station            Period (UTC)        Rain (cm)
  Orissa                 Berhampore         05/0300 - 06/0300     15
  Orissa                 Puri               05/0300 - 06/0300     12
  Orissa                 Gopalpur           05/0300 - 06/0300     16
  Orissa                 Gopalpur           06/0300 - 07/0300     10 
  Orissa                 Chandbali          06/0300 - 07/0300     27  
  Orissa                 Cuttack            06/0300 - 07/0300     11
  Orissa                 Paradeep           06/0300 - 07/0300     10
  West Bengal            Digha              06/0300 - 07/0300     23
  Andhra Pradesh         Parvathipuram      06/0300 - 07/0300     13
  Andhra Pradesh         Vishakapatnam      06/0300 - 07/0300     12.3
  West Bengal            Calcutta (ALP)     07/0300 - 08/0300     10.91
  West Bengal            Calcutta (DD)      07/0300 - 08/0300     16.23
  West Bengal            Canningtown        07/0300 - 08/0300     23
  West Bengal            Dum-Dum            07/0300 - 08/0300     16
  West Bengal            Mohanpur           07/0300 - 08/0300     14
  West Bengal            Midnapore          07/0300 - 08/0300     13
  West Bengal            Alipore            07/0300 - 08/0300     11
  Orissa                 Akhuapada          07/0300 - 08/0300     12
  Orissa                 Anandapur          07/0300 - 08/0300     11
  Orissa                 Baripada           07/0300 - 08/0300     11
  Orissa                 Chandbali          07/0300 - 08/0300     11
  Orissa                 Jeypore            07/0300 - 08/0300     11
  West Bengal            Calcutta (ALP)     07/0300 - 08/0300     16
  West Bengal            Digha              07/0300 - 08/0300     14
  Chhattisgarh           Jagdalpur          07/0300 - 08/0300     14
  Jharkhand              Tenughat           08/0300 - 09/0300     22
  Jharkhand              Konar              08/0300 - 09/0300     16
  Jharkhand              Ramgarh            08/0300 - 09/0300     15
  Jharkhand              Hindigir           08/0300 - 09/0300     11
  Jharkhand              Maharo             08/0300 - 09/0300     11
  Jharkhand              Ranchi             08/0300 - 09/0300     10
  Jharkhand              Barkisurya         08/0300 - 09/0300     10
  Bihar                  Tantloi            08/0300 - 09/0300     13
  Bihar                  Messanjore         08/0300 - 09/0300     13
  West Bengal            Malda              09/0300 - 10/0300     15
  West Bengal            Cooch-behar        09/0300 - 10/0300     13
  West Bengal            Alipurduar         09/0300 - 10/0300     11
  West Bengal            Jalpaiguri         09/0300 - 10/0300     11
  West Bengal            Domohani           09/0300 - 10/0300     10
  Bihar                  Bhagalpur          09/0300 - 10/0300     11
  Assam                  Tezpur             10/0300 - 11/0300     14
  Assam                  Guwahati           10/0300 - 11/0300     11
  West Bengal            Jalpaiguri         10/0300 - 11/0300     11
  Meghalaya              Shillong           10/0300 - 11/0300     19
  Note: IMD only classified the system as a depression from 6-8 October,
  2003.   Significant storm rains during both the formative and fading
  stages, however, are also listed above.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett based primarily upon information sent
  by Huang Chunliang)

                             TROPICAL STORM
                             22 - 28 October

  A. Storm History

     A STWO issued by JTWC at 1700 UTC on 21 October noted that an area
  of convection had developed in the Gulf of Thailand about 250 nm south
  of Bangkok.  Microwave imagery depicted a well-defined LLCC, and a
  200-mb analysis indicated weak to moderate vertical shear with good
  diffluence aloft.  The initial development potential was assessed as
  fair.   By 2300 UTC the convective organization had continued to improve
  so the development potential was upgraded to good.  At 0600 UTC on
  22 October the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) initiated tropical
  depression bulletins on the system.   At 23/0600 UTC the system was
  centered approximately 200 nm south of Bangkok or about 130 nm east of
  the Malay Peninsula.  Convection was still cycling over a partially-
  exposed LLCC so warnings were not initiated.  However, a QuikScat pass
  shortly afterward revealed an unflagged 25-kt wind vector, so the first
  JTWC warning on Tropical Depression 23W was issued at 0900 UTC.  The
  depression was quasi-stationary at the time, but after about 24 hours
  was forecast to begin tracking westward along the southern periphery
  of a low to mid-level ridge to the north.

     The depression remained quasi-stationary for most of the 23rd, but
  by 1800 UTC was moving north-northwestward at 5 kts.  The system was
  located in an environment of weak steering south of a low to mid-level
  ridge.  Satellite imagery revealed a compact LLCC with persistent but
  disorganized deep convection.   At 0600 UTC on 24 October the center of
  TD-23W was located about 130 nm south of Bangkok, still moving slowly
  northwestward.  The system had not changed appreciably in organization
  since the previous day.   As the day wore on the center of TD-23W
  approached the coast of Thailand and began to weaken.  The center made
  landfall near Hua Hin at approximately 24/1500 UTC with winds estimated
  at 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts.  At 1800 UTC the depression's center was
  located approximately 30 nm northwest of Hua Hin, moving northwestward
  at 8 kts.   By 0600 UTC on 25 October TD-23W had moved into the Bay of
  Bengal and was located approximately 185 nm west-southwest of Bangkok.
  This position represented a major westward relocation of the center.
  Animated multi-spectral imagery and data from a recent QuikScat pass
  revealed that the center was located much farther west from the previous
  warning position.  At 1800 UTC the system was tracking westward at 
  13 kts as the ridge to the north built.  However, convection appeared 
  to have weakened during the previous 12 hours.

     By 1800 UTC on 26 October the depression was located about 90 nm west
  of the Andaman Islands, tracking westward at 10 kts.  Satellite CI
  estimates were 25 and 30 kts, but animated enhanced infrared imagery
  indicated increasing deep convection over the LLCC, so the MSW was upped
  to 30 kts.   The system's organization continued to improve and some CI
  estimates had reached 35 kts by 27/0600 UTC.  The LLCC was partially-
  exposed, but deep convection was continuing to build near the center.
  JTWC upped the MSW to 35 kts at 0600 UTC with the center located about
  400 nm south of Calcutta.  The system was then moving west-northwestward
  at 14 kts.   By 1800 the storm was moving northwestward at an even faster
  speed of 19 kts.   Intensity estimates were 30 and 35 kts, so the MSW
  remained at 35 kts.  Since TC-23W was forecast to encounter a slightly
  more favorable upper-level environment, some slight strengthening was
  forecast before landfall in eastern India.   By 0600 UTC on 28 October
  TC-23W had made landfall and was weakening.   The final JTWC warning at
  28/0600 UTC placed the center about 50 nm northeast of Visakhapatnam,

  B. Meteorological Observations

  (1) Thailand

     According to the TMD warnings, Tropical Depression 23W had made
  landfall over Prachuap Khiri Khan Province by 24/0900 UTC on 24 October,
  2003.  Following are some rainfall reports sent by Huang Chunliang.

  Province/              Station                 Period              Rain
  Metropolis                                     (UTC)               (mm)
  Trang                  Sikao                   21/0000 - 22/0000   127.7
  Prachuap Khiri Khan    Hua Hin                 24/0000 - 25/0000   197.0
  Prachuap Khiri Khan    Nong Plub (Agromet)*    23/1200 - 24/1200   145
  Prachuap Khiri Khan    Nong Plub (Agromet)*    24/0000 - 25/0000   187
  Bangkok                Lam Hin Police Station  24/0000 - 25/0000    69.0

  Note (*): Agromet = Agrometeorological Station

  (2) India

     According to the IMD warnings, TC-23W crossed coastal Andhra Pradesh
  between Visakhapatnam and Kalingaptnam as a deep depression (i.e.,
  30 kts) around 28/0900 UTC.

     Station Dummagudem, in the state of Andhra Pradesh, recorded 12 cm of
  rainfall in the 24 hours between 28/0300 and 29/0300 UTC.

  C. Damage and Casualties

     The following information was condensed from press reports sent to
  the author by Huang Chunliang.

     Thousands were hit by monsoon flooding along Thailand's south-central
  coast, bringing road and rail transport to a virtual halt and forcing the
  evacuation of more than 700 people.  Nearly 10,000 people were affected
  by heavy rains (200-300 mm) that lashed Phetchaburi Province, adjacent
  Prachuap Khiri Khan to the south, and Ratchaburi.  More than 8700 people
  were severely affected in Phetchaburi alone, where 746 people were
  evacuated from their homes.  The State Railway of Thailand suspended
  service between Bangkok and points south of Petchaburi, stranding
  thousands of would-be passengers in the capital, while flash-flooding
  rendered several main roadways impassable.

     The series of severe tropical storms also wrought havoc at sea, with
  at least 20 fishermen still missing (at the time of the report) from two
  trawlers that capsized in the Gulf of Thailand.  The trawlers capsized
  between 40 and 60 nautical miles (74 and 111 kilometres) east of the
  popular destination island of Ko Samui during a fierce tropical storm.
  Police and rescuers from a nearby gas drilling platform saved 15 men who 
  were on the ill-fated boats.     The Thai navy helped rescue some 300
  tourists from the southern resort island of Koh Tao, near Ko Samui, after
  high seas left them stranded without ferry or flight service.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett with significant contributions by
  Huang Chunliang)


  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

             Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October

     No tropical cyclones formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during the
  month of October.  A tropical depression formed in late September and
  was named Tropical Storm Abaimba on 1 October.  This system meandered
  slowly for a few days deep in the tropics several hundred miles west of
  Diego Garcia.  The report on Abaimba can be found in the September
  tropical cyclone summary.



  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones



  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones


  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones


                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):>>>

     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:>


     JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical 
  Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2002 (2001-2002 season for the Southern 
  Hemisphere).  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.   

     The URL is:>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2002 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2002 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.

     The URL is:>

     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang  (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
                    China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]


Document: summ0310.htm
Updated: 26th October 2006

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