[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2003 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - OCTOBER 2003
!!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!
*************************************************************************
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida. A 1-minute averaging
period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.
A special thanks to David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction
Center (HPC) for compiling and sending me the tracks for a couple of
non-tropical systems which nonetheless warranted interest.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Storm LARRY (17) 30 Sep - 06 Oct
Non-tropical LOW 09 - 12 Oct
Tropical Storm MINDY (18) 10 - 14 Oct
Tropical Storm NICHOLAS (19) 13 - 23 Oct
Frontal Hybrid LOW 14 - 19 Oct
Possible Subtropical LOW 27 Oct - 06 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: LARRY Cyclone Number: 17 Basin: ATL
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 SEP 30 1800 21.0 N 92.0 W 1006 40 Non-tropical LOW
03 OCT 01 0000 21.0 N 93.0 W 1006 40
03 OCT 01 0600 21.0 N 94.0 W 1006 40
03 OCT 01 1200 21.0 N 94.0 W 1006 40
03 OCT 01 1800 21.0 N 93.5 W 1003 40
03 OCT 02 0000 21.0 N 93.5 W 1003 45 Tropical Storm Larry
03 OCT 02 0600 21.0 N 93.5 W 1003 45
03 OCT 02 1200 21.0 N 93.5 W 1003 45
03 OCT 02 1800 20.3 N 93.5 W 996 50
03 OCT 03 0000 20.5 N 94.0 W 993 50
03 OCT 03 0600 20.4 N 94.1 W 993 50
03 OCT 03 1200 20.0 N 94.7 W 997 50
03 OCT 03 1800 19.9 N 94.7 W 995 50
03 OCT 04 0000 19.8 N 94.7 W 995 50
03 OCT 04 0600 19.5 N 94.0 W 994 50
03 OCT 04 1200 19.4 N 93.8 W 994 50
03 OCT 04 1800 18.8 N 93.8 W 996 50
03 OCT 05 0000 18.6 N 93.6 W 996 50
03 OCT 05 0600 18.5 N 93.5 W 996 50
03 OCT 05 1200 18.4 N 93.5 W 997 50 Moving inland
03 OCT 05 1800 18.3 N 93.7 W 1002 35
03 OCT 06 0000 18.1 N 93.9 W 1004 35
03 OCT 06 0600 17.5 N 93.9 W 1005 25
03 OCT 06 0900 17.3 N 94.0 W 1005 20
Note: The tracking and intensity information prior to the issuance of the
first tropical cyclone advisory at 02/0000 UTC was obtained from the TPC
portion of the High Seas Forecasts.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: ATL
(Non-tropical LOW which had some organized convection)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 09 1800 25.0 N 77.0 W 1011 15
03 OCT 10 0000 26.0 N 77.0 W 1010 10
03 OCT 10 0600 28.0 N 77.0 W 1009 10
03 OCT 10 1200 31.0 N 76.0 W 1010 15
03 OCT 10 1800 35.0 N 72.0 W 1008 20
03 OCT 11 0000 36.0 N 73.0 W 1007 20
03 OCT 11 0600 36.0 N 73.0 W 1007 20
03 OCT 11 1200 36.0 N 72.0 W 1009 30
03 OCT 11 1800 37.0 N 72.0 W 1010 30 Frontal wave
03 OCT 12 0000 37.0 N 72.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 12 0600 38.0 N 71.5 W 1007 25
Note: The track above was supplied by David Roth of HPC. David writes:
"The system looked most impressive late on the 10th with a good amount
of convection ENE of the center. It was carried by OPC as a gale around
that time, but I didn't see any gale-force winds plotted on the OPC
maps--doesn't mean they weren't existent, though." David stopped the
track on the 12th as the system had become frontal in nature. The
LOW subsequently became a large storm in the North Atlantic on
14-18 October with the pressure falling to around 980 mb.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: MINDY Cyclone Number: 18 Basin: ATL
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 10 1800 18.8 N 68.6 W 1004 35 Near NE tip Hispaniola
03 OCT 11 0000 19.9 N 69.5 W 1002 40
03 OCT 11 0600 21.2 N 70.0 W 1002 40
03 OCT 11 1200 21.8 N 71.3 W 1007 40
03 OCT 11 1800 22.8 N 71.4 W 1007 35
03 OCT 12 0000 23.7 N 71.9 W 1006 35
03 OCT 12 0600 24.0 N 72.4 W 1007 35
03 OCT 12 1200 24.7 N 72.1 W 1007 35
03 OCT 12 1800 25.5 N 72.0 W 1008 30
03 OCT 13 0000 25.6 N 71.3 W 1008 30
03 OCT 13 0600 25.7 N 70.3 W 1008 30
03 OCT 13 1200 25.8 N 69.3 W 1008 25
03 OCT 13 1800 26.0 N 68.3 W 1007 25
03 OCT 14 0000 25.9 N 67.7 W 1008 25
03 OCT 14 0600 26.0 N 67.0 W 1009 25 Remnant LOW
03 OCT 14 1200 26.0 N 66.0 W 1011 20
Note: The final two positions and MSW values were obtained from the TPC
portion of the High Seas Forecasts.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: NICHOLAS Cyclone Number: 19 Basin: ATL
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 13 1800 9.6 N 38.4 W 1008 25
03 OCT 14 0000 9.8 N 39.2 W 1006 30
03 OCT 14 0600 10.0 N 40.1 W 1006 30
03 OCT 14 1200 10.6 N 41.0 W 1006 30
03 OCT 14 1800 11.1 N 41.9 W 1006 30
03 OCT 15 0000 11.4 N 42.6 W 1003 35
03 OCT 15 0600 11.7 N 43.3 W 1000 45
03 OCT 15 1200 11.8 N 43.6 W 1000 45
03 OCT 15 1800 12.2 N 44.2 W 1000 45
03 OCT 16 0000 12.7 N 44.9 W 1000 45
03 OCT 16 0600 13.1 N 45.5 W 997 50
03 OCT 16 1200 13.5 N 45.9 W 997 50
03 OCT 16 1800 14.2 N 46.7 W 994 55
03 OCT 17 0000 14.4 N 47.5 W 995 55
03 OCT 17 0600 14.8 N 47.8 W 995 55
03 OCT 17 1200 15.8 N 48.1 W 990 60
03 OCT 17 1800 16.1 N 48.3 W 994 55
03 OCT 18 0000 16.5 N 48.4 W 994 55
03 OCT 18 0600 17.0 N 48.4 W 994 55
03 OCT 18 1200 16.8 N 47.7 W 994 55
03 OCT 18 1800 17.1 N 47.7 W 997 50
03 OCT 19 0000 17.2 N 48.1 W 1000 45
03 OCT 19 0600 17.4 N 48.1 W 1000 45
03 OCT 19 1200 17.7 N 47.7 W 997 50
03 OCT 19 1800 17.7 N 47.5 W 1000 45
03 OCT 20 0000 17.7 N 47.5 W 1000 45
03 OCT 20 0600 17.7 N 47.5 W 1000 45
03 OCT 20 1200 17.9 N 48.2 W 1002 40
03 OCT 20 1800 18.1 N 49.0 W 1005 35
03 OCT 21 0000 18.3 N 49.6 W 1005 35
03 OCT 21 0600 18.6 N 50.1 W 1005 40
03 OCT 21 1200 18.4 N 51.2 W 1002 45
03 OCT 21 1800 18.4 N 52.0 W 1005 40
03 OCT 22 0000 18.9 N 52.6 W 1002 40
03 OCT 22 0600 18.4 N 53.7 W 1005 35
03 OCT 22 1200 18.8 N 54.1 W 1005 35
03 OCT 22 1800 19.6 N 54.5 W 1005 35
03 OCT 23 0000 20.6 N 55.6 W 1005 35
03 OCT 23 0600 21.7 N 56.1 W 1007 30
03 OCT 23 1200 22.4 N 56.4 W 1007 30
03 OCT 23 1800 23.6 N 56.9 W 1008 25
03 OCT 23 2100 24.3 N 56.8 W 1008 25
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: ATL
(System was frontal, but had some organized convection)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 14 0600 31.0 N 62.0 W 1008 25
03 OCT 14 1200 32.0 N 59.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 14 1800 33.0 N 57.0 W 1006 25
03 OCT 15 0000 37.0 N 53.0 W 1002 25
03 OCT 15 0600 37.0 N 51.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 15 1200 36.0 N 51.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 15 1800 37.0 N 50.0 W 1006 25
03 OCT 16 0000 37.0 N 48.0 W 1006 25
03 OCT 16 0600 37.0 N 47.0 W 1004 25
03 OCT 16 1200 37.0 N 47.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 16 1800 37.0 N 47.0 W 1006 25
03 OCT 17 0000 37.0 N 46.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 17 0600 37.0 N 46.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 17 1200 37.0 N 46.0 W 1010 30
03 OCT 17 1800 36.0 N 45.0 W 1010 25
03 OCT 18 0000 36.0 N 45.0 W 1012 25
03 OCT 18 0600 36.0 N 44.0 W 1007 25
03 OCT 18 1200 35.0 N 42.0 W 1010 30
03 OCT 18 1800 35.0 N 41.0 W 1010 25
03 OCT 19 0000 33.0 N 41.0 W 1011 25
03 OCT 19 0600 32.0 N 40.0 W 1010 25
03 OCT 19 1200 32.0 N 41.0 W 1013 25
03 OCT 19 1800 32.0 N 41.0 W 1014 25
Note: All the above information was obtained from OPC's High Seas Fore-
casts. On the morning of 15 October I noticed that this LOW appeared
to have some features of a subtropical system. I e-mailed a query to
David Roth at HPC. David replied that the system could be classed as
a frontal hybrid--a MCS blew up over and north of the LOW's warm front.
The system appeared somewhat organized-looking on 17 October with an
eye-like feature in the middle of a ring of shallow convection, but
by the evening of the 18th no convection remained near the center.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: ATL
(Initially frontal LOW which acquired some subtropical features)
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 27 1200 25.0 N 64.0 W 1009 15 Frontal
03 OCT 27 1800 25.5 N 64.0 W 1006 15 No fronts
03 OCT 28 0000 25.5 N 64.5 W 1008 15 Convection SE of center
03 OCT 28 0600 26.0 N 65.0 W 1008 15
03 OCT 28 1200 26.0 N 65.0 W 1007 15
03 OCT 28 1800 26.0 N 65.0 W 1007 15
03 OCT 29 0000 25.5 N 65.5 W 1008 15 Convection NE of center
03 OCT 29 0600 29.0 N 68.0 W 1008 25 Relocated
03 OCT 29 1200 29.0 N 68.0 W 1009 25
03 OCT 29 1800 30.0 N 68.0 W 1009 20
03 OCT 30 0000 30.5 N 67.0 W 1011 10
03 OCT 30 0600 30.0 N 66.0 W 1010 10
03 OCT 30 1200 29.5 N 66.0 W 1011 10
03 OCT 30 1800 29.0 N 65.0 W 1011 25
03 OCT 31 0000 29.0 N 65.5 W 1009 35
03 OCT 31 0600 28.5 N 66.0 W 1008 30
03 OCT 31 1200 27.0 N 67.0 W 1008 25 Cb returns NE of center
03 OCT 31 1800 26.0 N 66.0 W 1007 30
03 NOV 01 0000 26.5 N 66.0 W 1007 30
03 NOV 01 0600 26.5 N 66.0 W 1006 30
03 NOV 01 1200 27.0 N 66.0 W 1006 30
03 NOV 01 1800 28.0 N 67.0 W 1007 30
03 NOV 02 0000 27.5 N 68.5 W 1006 35
03 NOV 02 0600 27.5 N 70.0 W 1006 35
03 NOV 02 1200 27.5 N 72.0 W 1009 40 Cb shifts SW of center
03 NOV 02 1800 27.0 N 74.0 W 1008 30
03 NOV 03 0000 26.0 N 77.0 W 1006 30
03 NOV 03 0600 27.0 N 80.0 W 1008 25 On SE Florida coast
03 NOV 03 1200 26.5 N 82.5 W 1008 20 In Gulf of Mexico
03 NOV 03 1800 27.0 N 83.5 W 1007 20
03 NOV 04 0000 27.0 N 86.0 W 1007 25
03 NOV 04 0600 27.0 N 87.5 W 1007 25
03 NOV 04 1200 27.5 N 88.0 W 1008 20 Cb reflares SE of cntr
03 NOV 04 1800 28.0 N 88.5 W 1008 20 Devoid of convection
03 NOV 05 0000 29.0 N 89.0 W 1007 15 Over mouth of Miss Riv
03 NOV 05 0600 29.5 N 89.5 W 1009 10 SE of New Orleans
03 NOV 05 1200 30.5 N 89.0 W 1011 5 On Mississippi coast
03 NOV 05 1800 31.0 N 88.5 W 1014 Inland
03 NOV 06 0000 31.5 N 89.0 W 1014
Note: The track above was supplied by David Roth of HPC. In its early
stages this system was associated with the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Nicholas; however, by the time the LOW had entered the Gulf of
Mexico and intensification to tropical or subtropical storm status was
considered a possibility, it had been decided by NHC that if the system
did require naming, it would be Odette instead of a rejuvenation of
Nicholas. The system at times displayed some subtropical features, and
David Roth reported that he had learned from Jack Beven that it might be
reclassified as an unnumbered tropical depression. Central pressures
and MSW are based upon ship reports.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude
140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W. A 1-minute averaging
period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Hurricane NORA (14E) 01 - 09 Oct
Hurricane OLAF (15E) 03 - 08 Oct
Hurricane PATRICIA (16E) 20 - 26 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: NORA Cyclone Number: 14E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 01 1800 15.8 N 108.3 W 1007 25
03 OCT 02 0000 15.6 N 108.4 W 1005 30
03 OCT 02 0600 15.7 N 108.8 W 1005 35
03 OCT 02 1200 15.7 N 109.1 W 1005 35
03 OCT 02 1800 15.2 N 109.0 W 1002 40
03 OCT 03 0000 15.1 N 109.1 W 997 50
03 OCT 03 0600 15.0 N 109.3 W 997 55
03 OCT 03 1200 15.3 N 109.3 W 994 55
03 OCT 03 1800 16.0 N 109.7 W 992 60
03 OCT 04 0000 16.2 N 110.2 W 987 65
03 OCT 04 0600 16.5 N 110.9 W 981 75
03 OCT 04 1200 16.9 N 111.5 W 970 90
03 OCT 04 1800 17.4 N 112.0 W 970 90
03 OCT 05 0000 18.0 N 112.6 W 970 90
03 OCT 05 0600 18.5 N 113.0 W 970 85
03 OCT 05 1200 19.0 N 113.3 W 973 85
03 OCT 05 1800 19.3 N 113.6 W 976 80
03 OCT 06 0000 19.7 N 113.9 W 979 75
03 OCT 06 0600 20.1 N 113.9 W 987 65
03 OCT 06 1200 20.2 N 113.9 W 997 50
03 OCT 06 1800 20.1 N 113.9 W 1000 40
03 OCT 07 0000 20.3 N 113.6 W 1002 35
03 OCT 07 0600 20.5 N 113.3 W 1003 30
03 OCT 07 1200 20.1 N 112.6 W 1003 30
03 OCT 07 1800 20.1 N 111.6 W 1002 30
03 OCT 08 0000 20.3 N 110.4 W 1002 30
03 OCT 08 0600 20.5 N 109.2 W 1002 25
03 OCT 08 1200 21.0 N 108.0 W 1004 25
03 OCT 08 1800 22.3 N 107.2 W 1004 25
03 OCT 09 0000 23.1 N 106.9 W 1003 25
03 OCT 09 0600 23.8 N 106.7 W 1006 20 Inland
03 OCT 09 0900 24.2 N 106.7 W 1006 20
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: OLAF Cyclone Number: 15E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 03 1200 12.0 N 99.4 W 1005 30
03 OCT 03 1800 12.4 N 99.4 W 1000 40
03 OCT 04 0000 13.2 N 99.8 W 1000 45
03 OCT 04 0600 13.6 N 100.4 W 1000 45
03 OCT 04 1200 14.1 N 100.9 W 997 50
03 OCT 04 1800 15.0 N 102.2 W 994 55
03 OCT 05 0000 15.6 N 103.5 W 990 60
03 OCT 05 0600 16.4 N 103.5 W 994 55
03 OCT 05 1200 16.8 N 104.1 W 987 65
03 OCT 05 1800 17.8 N 105.0 W 987 65
03 OCT 06 0000 17.5 N 105.2 W 992 65
03 OCT 06 0600 18.4 N 105.9 W 992 65
03 OCT 06 1200 19.2 N 106.1 W 987 65 See Note
03 OCT 06 1800 17.8 N 104.3 W 998 35 Relocated / See Note
03 OCT 07 0000 18.5 N 104.5 W 997 50
03 OCT 07 0600 19.0 N 104.6 W 997 55
03 OCT 07 1200 19.6 N 104.6 W 999 45 Inland
03 OCT 07 1800 20.3 N 104.5 W 1002 30
03 OCT 08 0000 21.0 N 104.0 W 1004 25
03 OCT 08 0300 21.3 N 103.8 W 1004 25 Dissipated
Note: A special advisory was issued at 06/1800 UTC after a reconnaissance
plane reached the storm area, downgrading Olaf from a minimal hurricane
to a minimal tropical storm, and also drastically relocating the center.
The 06/1200 UTC position given in the track above is the original one,
included in the 1500 UTC forecast/advisory. The special advisory at
1800 UTC gave the 1200 UTC position as 17.4N, 104.5W.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: PATRICIA Cyclone Number: 16E Basin: NEP
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 20 1200 9.8 N 100.0 W 1007 30
03 OCT 20 1800 10.3 N 101.3 W 1002 40
03 OCT 21 0000 10.5 N 101.9 W 1000 45
03 OCT 21 0600 10.8 N 102.6 W 1000 55
03 OCT 21 1200 11.5 N 103.2 W 987 65
03 OCT 21 1800 11.5 N 104.1 W 984 65
03 OCT 22 0000 11.9 N 105.1 W 981 70
03 OCT 22 0600 11.9 N 105.8 W 987 65
03 OCT 22 1200 12.2 N 106.5 W 987 65
03 OCT 22 1800 12.2 N 107.9 W 994 55
03 OCT 23 0000 12.4 N 108.6 W 997 50
03 OCT 23 0600 12.9 N 109.7 W 997 50
03 OCT 23 1200 13.2 N 110.7 W 1000 40
03 OCT 23 1800 13.2 N 111.8 W 1005 35
03 OCT 24 0000 13.6 N 112.3 W 1005 35
03 OCT 24 0600 13.8 N 112.7 W 1005 35
03 OCT 24 1200 14.3 N 113.0 W 1002 40
03 OCT 24 1800 14.3 N 113.2 W 1002 40
03 OCT 25 0000 14.5 N 113.4 W 1002 35
03 OCT 25 0600 14.9 N 113.5 W 1005 35
03 OCT 25 1200 15.4 N 113.8 W 1008 30
03 OCT 25 1800 16.0 N 114.0 W 1008 30
03 OCT 26 0000 16.0 N 114.8 W 1008 25
03 OCT 26 0300 16.2 N 114.9 W 1008 25
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The central pressure and 10-minute
average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin. In a few instances, information from
warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very
special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
reliably provide.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression 05 - 07 Oct
Tropical Depression (18W) 06 - 10 Oct
Tropical Depression (19W) 12 - 13 Oct
Typhoon KETSANA (20W / 0317 / TISOY) 17 - 29 Oct
Super Typhoon PARMA (21W / 0318) 20 Oct - 02 Nov
Tropical Depression (22W / URSULA) 22 - 24 Oct
Typhoon MELOR (24W / 0319 / VIRING) 30 Oct - 05 Nov
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 05 0000 16.0 N 125.0 E 1008 25 JMA Bulletins
03 OCT 05 0600 17.0 N 119.0 E 1006 25
03 OCT 05 1200 20.0 N 122.0 E 1008 25
03 OCT 05 1800 20.8 N 122.4 E 1008 30 CWBT: 20.8 N, 121.7 E
03 OCT 06 0000 21.4 N 122.4 E 1008 30 CWBT: 21.0 N, 121.0 E
03 OCT 06 0600 21.8 N 122.0 E 1008 30 CWBT: 21.0 N, 120.5 E
03 OCT 06 1200 21.0 N 121.0 E 1002 25 CWBT Bulletins
03 OCT 06 1800 21.5 N 121.0 E 1002 25
03 OCT 07 0000 21.5 N 122.0 E 1002 25
Note: To my knowledge JMA and CWBT were the only warning agencies calling
this system a tropical depression. CWBT issued bulletins on the system
from 05/1800 UTC until 07/0600 UTC, when it was downgraded back to a
low-pressure area. There were no wind estimations for the system from
this agency, but since the depression was never considered a likely
candidate for tropical storm formation, the MSW in the CWBT bulletins
has been set to 25 kts.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 18W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 06 0600 18.1 N 117.1 E 1008 30 JMA Warnings
03 OCT 06 1200 18.3 N 117.4 E 1006 30 "
03 OCT 06 1800 18.0 N 116.7 E 1006 25 30
03 OCT 07 0000 17.7 N 115.6 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 17.4 N, 116.6 E
03 OCT 07 0600 17.3 N 115.1 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 17.4 N, 116.1 E
03 OCT 07 1200 16.9 N 114.8 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 17.9 N, 116.0 E
03 OCT 07 1800 16.9 N 114.8 E 1006 25 30 JMA: 18.2 N, 115.9 E
03 OCT 08 0000 17.6 N 115.5 E 1006 25 30
03 OCT 08 0600 17.8 N 115.3 E 1006 25 30
03 OCT 08 1200 18.0 N 115.1 E 1008 25 30
03 OCT 08 1800 18.2 N 115.4 E 1006 25 30 JMA: 17.2 N, 115.8 E
03 OCT 09 0000 18.4 N 115.1 E 1006 25 30
03 OCT 09 0600 19.1 N 115.2 E 1006 25 30 GRMC: 17.9 N, 114.9 E
03 OCT 09 1200 19.6 N 115.2 E 1006 25 30 GRMC: 18.1 N, 114.8 E
03 OCT 09 1800 19.9 N 115.3 E 1008 25 30
03 OCT 10 0000 19.8 N 115.0 E 1008 25 25 JMA: 19.0 N, 115.0 E
03 OCT 10 0600 20.2 N 114.6 E 1008 25 25 JMA: 19.0 N, 114.0 E
Note: GRMC stands for Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Centre (in
China). Huang Chunliang has sent me a partial listing of this centre's
track and intensities, as well as the bulletins from the Central Weather
Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT). Their 10-min avg MSW estimates are given in
the following table. No warnings were issued by HKO, NMCC or PAGASA.
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) GRMC CWBT
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 06 1200 25
03 OCT 06 1800 25
03 OCT 07 0000 25
03 OCT 07 0600 25
03 OCT 07 1200 30 25
03 OCT 07 1800 25
03 OCT 08 0000 30 25
03 OCT 08 0600 30 25
03 OCT 08 1200 25 25
03 OCT 08 1800 25
03 OCT 09 0000 25 25
03 OCT 09 0600 25 25
03 OCT 09 1200 25 25
03 OCT 09 1800 25
03 OCT 10 0000 25
Note #1: All of the bulletins from GRMC were not available, but these
were included to establish the fact that this agency did classify 18W
as a tropical depression. The disturbance was upgraded to depression
status at 07/0900 UTC, and the final alert was issued at 10/0600 UTC.
Note #2: CWBT upgraded the system to depression status at 06/1200 UTC,
and downgraded it to a low-pressure area and issued the final bulletin
at 10/0600 UTC. No explicit wind estimations were given. If the
bulletin indicated that the depression was expected to intensity into
a tropical storm, Chunliang reported the MSW as 30 kts; otherwise as
25 kts.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 19W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 12 0000 30.1 N 129.9 E 25
03 OCT 12 0600 31.0 N 130.0 E 30
03 OCT 12 1200 32.1 N 131.5 E 30
03 OCT 12 1800 33.1 N 133.8 E 30
03 OCT 13 0000 34.0 N 135.8 E 25
Note: Apparently none of the Asian TCWCs regarded this LOW of subtropical
origin as a tropical depression.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: KETSANA Cyclone Number: 20W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: TISOY JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0317
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 17 0000 15.6 N 132.6 E 1004 30 PAGASA Warnings
03 OCT 17 0600 15.8 N 132.0 E 1004 30 "
03 OCT 17 1200 15.9 N 131.4 E 1004 30 "
03 OCT 17 1800 16.0 N 131.0 E 1004 30 "
03 OCT 18 0000 16.2 N 130.5 E 1004 30 "
03 OCT 18 0600 14.6 N 131.9 E 1000 30 PAGASA: 16.3 N, 129.9 E
03 OCT 18 1200 15.1 N 131.6 E 1000 30 PAGASA: 16.4 N, 129.4 E
03 OCT 18 1800 15.0 N 130.0 E 1000 30 30 PAGASA: 16.4 N, 129.3 E
03 OCT 19 0000 14.9 N 130.5 E 998 35 30 JMA: 16.4 N, 131.2 E
03 OCT 19 0600 15.3 N 130.1 E 994 40 35
03 OCT 19 1200 15.2 N 130.4 E 990 40 45
03 OCT 19 1800 15.8 N 130.5 E 985 45 50
03 OCT 20 0000 15.9 N 130.8 E 980 50 55
03 OCT 20 0600 15.7 N 130.8 E 970 55 65
03 OCT 20 1200 15.9 N 131.1 E 970 65 65
03 OCT 20 1800 16.2 N 131.0 E 965 80 70
03 OCT 21 0000 16.3 N 131.1 E 960 95 75
03 OCT 21 0600 16.6 N 131.2 E 945 120 85
03 OCT 21 1200 17.1 N 131.2 E 940 125 85
03 OCT 21 1800 17.2 N 131.2 E 940 125 85
03 OCT 22 0000 17.4 N 131.2 E 940 125 85
03 OCT 22 0600 17.7 N 131.2 E 940 125 85
03 OCT 22 1200 18.3 N 131.4 E 940 125 85
03 OCT 22 1800 18.6 N 131.7 E 940 115 85
03 OCT 23 0000 18.8 N 132.4 E 945 110 80
03 OCT 23 0600 19.0 N 132.5 E 940 105 85
03 OCT 23 1200 19.7 N 133.0 E 940 105 85
03 OCT 23 1800 20.0 N 133.3 E 940 100 85
03 OCT 24 0000 20.3 N 133.6 E 945 100 80
03 OCT 24 0600 21.0 N 133.7 E 945 90 80
03 OCT 24 1200 21.9 N 134.1 E 945 85 80
03 OCT 24 1800 23.0 N 135.1 E 945 85 80
03 OCT 25 0000 24.5 N 135.6 E 950 85 80
03 OCT 25 0600 25.9 N 137.2 E 955 80 75
03 OCT 25 1200 27.7 N 138.9 E 965 75 70
03 OCT 25 1800 29.2 N 141.7 E 975 70 60 JMA: 30.0 N, 142.0 E
03 OCT 26 0000 31.9 N 144.2 E 980 70 55
03 OCT 26 0600 34.4 N 147.7 E 985 50 JMA Bulletins
03 OCT 26 1200 36.0 N 150.0 E 990 50 Extratropical
03 OCT 26 1800 38.0 N 155.0 E 992 50
03 OCT 27 0000 41.0 N 159.0 E 1000 50
03 OCT 27 0600 45.0 N 162.0 E 1000 50
03 OCT 27 1200 47.0 N 166.0 E 996 50
03 OCT 27 1800 50.0 N 169.0 E 992 50
03 OCT 28 0000 52.0 N 172.0 E 990 50
03 OCT 28 0600 53.0 N 174.0 E 990 50
03 OCT 28 1200 54.0 N 175.0 E 990 50
03 OCT 28 1800 56.0 N 176.0 E 992 45
03 OCT 29 0000 58.0 N 175.0 E 1004 35
Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC and PAGASA are included
in the following table:
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC PAGASA
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 17 0000 30
03 OCT 17 0600 30
03 OCT 17 1200 30
03 OCT 17 1800 30
03 OCT 18 0000 30
03 OCT 18 0600 30
03 OCT 18 1200 30
03 OCT 18 1800 30
03 OCT 19 0000 35
03 OCT 19 0600 35 35
03 OCT 19 1200 35 35
03 OCT 19 1800 45 40
03 OCT 20 0000 55 50
03 OCT 20 0600 65 55
03 OCT 20 1200 65 65
03 OCT 20 1800 65 65
03 OCT 21 0000 70 75
03 OCT 21 0600 80 75
03 OCT 21 1200 90 75
03 OCT 21 1800 90 85
03 OCT 22 0000 90 85
03 OCT 22 0600 100 85
03 OCT 22 1200 100 85
03 OCT 22 1800 100 85
03 OCT 23 0000 100 85
03 OCT 23 0600 100 85
03 OCT 23 1200 100 85
03 OCT 23 1800 100 85
03 OCT 24 0000 100 80
03 OCT 24 0600 100 75
03 OCT 24 1200 90 75
03 OCT 24 1800 90
03 OCT 25 0000 80
03 OCT 25 0600 80
03 OCT 25 1200 70
03 OCT 25 1800 65
03 OCT 26 0000 55
03 OCT 26 0600 50
03 OCT 26 1200 45
Note #1: No warnings were issued on Ketsana by HKO as it remained
outside that agency's AOR.
Note #2: No local warnings were issued by CWBT. This agency upgraded
the disturbance to depression status at 18/1200 UTC, to tropical storm
status at 19/0600 UTC, and issued the final bulletin at 26/1800 UTC,
declaring it extratropical. The peak intensity estimated by CWBT was
84 kts (10-min avg).
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: PARMA Cyclone Number: 21W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0318
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 20 0600 19.7 N 143.2 E 998 30 JMA Warning
03 OCT 20 1200 20.4 N 142.9 E 998 25 30
03 OCT 20 1800 20.8 N 142.3 E 996 30 30 JMA: 20.9 N, 143.2 E
03 OCT 21 0000 21.1 N 142.7 E 994 35 35 JMA: 20.8 N, 143.9 E
03 OCT 21 0600 21.6 N 144.3 E 992 35 35
03 OCT 21 1200 22.2 N 145.4 E 990 45 40
03 OCT 21 1800 22.5 N 145.8 E 985 45 50
03 OCT 22 0000 22.6 N 146.3 E 980 50 55
03 OCT 22 0600 22.9 N 146.9 E 970 60 65
03 OCT 22 1200 23.5 N 147.3 E 970 65 65
03 OCT 22 1800 24.1 N 148.0 E 970 65 65
03 OCT 23 0000 24.6 N 148.9 E 960 80 70 NMCC: 24.4 N, 148.4 E
03 OCT 23 0600 26.2 N 149.8 E 950 90 80
03 OCT 23 1200 27.1 N 150.9 E 945 110 85
03 OCT 23 1800 28.2 N 152.3 E 935 105 90
03 OCT 24 0000 29.0 N 154.1 E 930 115 95
03 OCT 24 0600 30.1 N 156.3 E 930 125 95
03 OCT 24 1200 30.8 N 158.7 E 930 125 95
03 OCT 24 1800 30.8 N 161.9 E 930 130 95 JMA: 30.7 N, 161.4 E
03 OCT 25 0000 30.1 N 163.6 E 935 125 90
03 OCT 25 0600 28.8 N 165.5 E 935 120 90
03 OCT 25 1200 27.5 N 167.4 E 945 115 85
03 OCT 25 1800 26.4 N 168.5 E 955 105 75
03 OCT 26 0000 25.1 N 169.3 E 965 95 70 NMCC: 25.4 N, 169.7 E
03 OCT 26 0600 24.2 N 169.6 E 965 90 70
03 OCT 26 1200 22.7 N 168.5 E 970 80 65 JMA: 23.1 N, 168.9 E
03 OCT 26 1800 22.2 N 167.3 E 970 65 65 JMA: 22.9 N, 167.6 E
03 OCT 27 0000 22.2 N 165.8 E 975 65 60 JMA: 22.7 N, 166.0 E
03 OCT 27 0600 22.2 N 164.6 E 975 65 60
03 OCT 27 1200 22.1 N 162.9 E 975 75 60 NMCC: 21.7 N, 162.5 E
03 OCT 27 1800 22.1 N 160.4 E 970 75 65
03 OCT 28 0000 22.0 N 158.1 E 975 75 60
03 OCT 28 0600 21.8 N 156.3 E 975 75 60
03 OCT 28 1200 22.0 N 154.2 E 970 80 65
03 OCT 28 1800 22.6 N 152.1 E 965 85 70
03 OCT 29 0000 23.2 N 150.4 E 955 95 75
03 OCT 29 0600 23.7 N 149.5 E 945 95 80
03 OCT 29 1200 24.8 N 148.8 E 935 110 85
03 OCT 29 1800 25.7 N 149.2 E 935 115 85
03 OCT 30 0000 26.6 N 150.1 E 940 115 85
03 OCT 30 0600 27.8 N 151.5 E 945 100 80
03 OCT 30 1200 28.9 N 153.9 E 955 90 75
03 OCT 30 1800 29.7 N 156.7 E 965 85 75 JMA: 29.6 N, 157.4 E
03 OCT 31 0000 30.5 N 159.5 E 975 70 60
03 OCT 31 0600 31.4 N 163.1 E 980 55 55
03 OCT 31 1200 33.0 N 169.0 E 986 50 JMA Warning
03 OCT 31 1800 33.0 N 170.0 E 988 50
03 NOV 01 0000 34.0 N 173.0 E 988 50
03 NOV 01 0600 35.0 N 176.0 E 992 50
03 NOV 01 1200 35.0 N 179.0 E 992 50
03 NOV 02 0000 36.0 N 174.0 W 988 30 No data at 01/1800 UTC
Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are given in the following
table:
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 21 0000 35
03 OCT 21 0600 35
03 OCT 21 1200 35
03 OCT 21 1800 40
03 OCT 22 0000 45
03 OCT 22 0600 60
03 OCT 22 1200 65
03 OCT 22 1800 65
03 OCT 23 0000 65
03 OCT 23 0600 65
03 OCT 23 1200 80
03 OCT 23 1800 90
03 OCT 24 0000 90
03 OCT 24 0600 90
03 OCT 24 1200 90
03 OCT 24 1800 90
03 OCT 25 0000 90
03 OCT 25 0600 90
03 OCT 25 1200 70
03 OCT 25 1800 65
03 OCT 26 0000 65
03 OCT 26 0600 55
03 OCT 26 1200 55
03 OCT 26 1800 55
03 OCT 27 0000 55
03 OCT 27 0600 55
03 OCT 27 1200 55
03 OCT 27 1800 55
03 OCT 28 0000 65
03 OCT 28 0600 65
03 OCT 28 1200 65
03 OCT 28 1800 70
03 OCT 29 0000 80
03 OCT 29 0600 90
03 OCT 29 1200 90
03 OCT 29 1800 90
03 OCT 30 0000 90
03 OCT 30 0600 90
03 OCT 30 1200 80
03 OCT 30 1800 70
03 OCT 31 0000 60
03 OCT 31 0600 50
03 OCT 31 1200 40
Note #1: No warnings were issued by HKO or PAGASA since Parma remained
outside their respective AORs.
Note #2: CWBT did not issue any local warnings on Parma. This agency
upgraded the disturbance to depression status at 20/0600 UTC, to
tropical storm status at 21/0600 UTC, and issued the final bulletin
at 31/1800 UTC, declaring it extratropical. The peak intensity for
Parma estimated by CWBT was 93 kts (10-min avg).
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 22W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: URSULA JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 22 0600 11.8 N 115.2 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 12.0 N, 114.5 E
03 OCT 22 1200 11.8 N 115.4 E 1006 25 30 JMA: 11.6 N, 116.5 E
03 OCT 22 1800 11.9 N 116.8 E 1004 25 30
03 OCT 23 0000 11.0 N 118.5 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 11.9 N, 117.0 E
03 OCT 23 0600 10.9 N 119.4 E 1004 25 30 JMA: 11.5 N, 117.5 E
03 OCT 23 1200 11.0 N 120.6 E 1008 25 30 JMA: 10.7 N, 119.1 E
03 OCT 23 1800 10.8 N 122.2 E 1004 20 30
03 OCT 24 0000 10.0 N 122.5 E 25 PAGASA Warning
Note: The PAGASA track and intensities are included below. No other
agency besides JTWC, JMA and PAGASA issued bulletins on this system
as a tropical depression.
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW
(GMT) Press 10-min
(mb) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 23 0000 11.8 N 117.0 E 1004 30
03 OCT 23 0600 11.7 N 118.0 E 1004 30
03 OCT 23 1200 11.5 N 118.5 E 1004 30
03 OCT 23 1800 11.5 N 120.0 E 1004 30
03 OCT 24 0000 10.0 N 122.5 E 25
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: MELOR Cyclone Number: 24W Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: VIRING JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0319
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 30 0000 12.6 N 129.7 E 1002 30 JMA Warning
03 OCT 30 0600 12.9 N 128.8 E 1000 25 30 PAGASA: 12.9 N, 130.4 E
03 OCT 30 1200 13.3 N 127.8 E 996 35 35
03 OCT 30 1800 14.0 N 126.8 E 996 35 35 PAGASA: 13.7 N, 127.5 E
03 OCT 31 0000 14.6 N 126.1 E 990 45 45
03 OCT 31 0600 15.3 N 124.8 E 980 50 55
03 OCT 31 1200 15.8 N 123.8 E 980 65 55
03 OCT 31 1800 16.3 N 122.9 E 975 65 60
03 NOV 01 0000 16.8 N 122.4 E 980 70 50 Near Luzon coast
03 NOV 01 0600 17.2 N 122.0 E 985 75 50 Inland in NE Luzon
03 NOV 01 1200 18.6 N 121.0 E 996 70 40 On north Luzon coast
03 NOV 01 1800 19.5 N 120.8 E 992 65 45
03 NOV 02 0000 20.2 N 120.6 E 990 60 45
03 NOV 02 0600 20.7 N 120.5 E 990 60 45
03 NOV 02 1200 21.3 N 120.6 E 990 60 40
03 NOV 02 1800 22.0 N 121.2 E 992 55 35 Just E of S Taiwan
03 NOV 03 0000 22.7 N 121.7 E 992 45 35 JMA: 22.8 N, 122.5 E
03 NOV 03 0600 23.1 N 122.9 E 996 45 35
03 NOV 03 1200 23.7 N 123.3 E 994 45 40
03 NOV 03 1800 24.0 N 124.6 E 996 45 40
03 NOV 04 0000 23.9 N 123.9 E 1004 35 30 JMA: 23.0 N, 124.0 E
03 NOV 04 0300 24.1 N 123.7 E 1002 27 HKO Warning
03 NOV 04 0600 23.0 N 123.0 E 1006 25 JMA Bulletins
03 NOV 04 1200 24.0 N 123.0 E 1008 25
03 NOV 04 1800 26.0 N 123.0 E 1008 25
03 NOV 05 1200 30.0 N 127.0 E 1012 20 No data at 0000 & 0600Z
03 NOV 05 1800 30.0 N 128.0 E 1012 20
Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC, PAGASA, HKO and CWBT are
given in the following table:
Date Time Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
(GMT) NMCC PAGASA HKO CWBT
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 30 0600 25
03 OCT 30 1200 30
03 OCT 30 1800 35 35
03 OCT 31 0000 35 45
03 OCT 31 0600 45 50 40
03 OCT 31 1200 55 55 55
03 OCT 31 1800 55 60 55
03 NOV 01 0000 60 60 55
03 NOV 01 0600 60 45 55
03 NOV 01 1200 60 45 50
03 NOV 01 1800 60 45 50
03 NOV 02 0000 55 50 50 45
03 NOV 02 0600 55 50 50 45
03 NOV 02 1200 55 50 50 50
03 NOV 02 1800 55 40 45 50
03 NOV 03 0000 50 40 40 50
03 NOV 03 0600 35 40 35 35
03 NOV 03 1200 35 40 35 35
03 NOV 03 1800 35 40 30
03 NOV 04 0000 30 30 27
Note #1: HKO upgraded the low-pressure area to depression status at
30/1200 UTC, then further to tropical storm status six hour later.
However, the first HKO warning didn't appear until 31/0600 UTC, when
Melor entered their AOR. The final warning was released at 04/0600
UTC, downgrading Melor to a low-pressure area.
Note #2: CWBT issued 15 local warnings on Melor (at 3-hourly intervals),
the first being issued at 2100 UTC on 1 November. This agency upgraded
the disturbance to depression status at 30/0600 UTC, and to tropical
storm status six hours later. The final local warning was issued at
03/1500 UTC when Melor no longer posed a threat to Taiwan. The system
was downgraded back to depression status at 04/0000 UTC, then further
to a low-pressure area six hours later. The peak intensity for Melor
as estimated by CWBT was 58 kts (10-min avg).
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Sources of Information
----------------------
The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
ological Centre for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.
Huang Chunliang sent me tracks for TC-23W which he'd compiled
based on warnings from the India Meteorological Department and the
Thai Meteorological Department; also, for another system treated as
a depression by India. A special thanks to Chunliang for sending
me the information.
Systems Tracked
---------------
Tropical Depression 06 - 08 Oct
Tropical Cyclone (23W) 22 - 28 Oct
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: NIO
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 06 0300 16.5 N 84.0 E 25
03 OCT 06 1200 17.5 N 84.0 E 25
03 OCT 06 1800 18.0 N 84.0 E 25
03 OCT 07 0300 19.0 N 83.0 E 25 Inland--See Note
03 OCT 08 0300 21.0 N 82.5 E 25
Note: The above track was prepared by Huang Chunliang from bulletins
available on IMD's website. This system was not classified as a tropical
depression by JTWC. IMD upgraded the LOW to a depression at 06/0300 UTC
and downgraded it back to a low-pressure area at 09/0300 UTC. No winds
was specified, but based upon its classification as a depression (as
opposed to a deep depression), the MSW was set to 25 kts. The depression
made landfall near Kalingapatnam around 06/2130 UTC.
*************************************************************************
Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: 23W Basin: NWP/NIO
PAGASA Internal Name: None JMA Tropical Storm Number: None
Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 OCT 22 0600 10.2 N 101.0 E 1008 28 See Note
03 OCT 22 1200 10.2 N 101.0 E 1008 28
03 OCT 22 1800 10.2 N 101.0 E 1008 28
03 OCT 23 0000 10.2 N 101.0 E 1008 28
03 OCT 23 0600 10.2 N 101.5 E 1008 25 28
03 OCT 23 1200 10.4 N 101.4 E 1006 25 30 TMD: 11.5 N, 100.5 E
03 OCT 23 1800 11.1 N 101.2 E 1006 25 30 TMD: 11.8 N, 100.5 E
03 OCT 24 0000 11.2 N 101.0 E 1008 25 30 TMD: 11.9 N, 100.4 E
03 OCT 24 0600 11.4 N 100.7 E 1008 25 27 TMD: 12.0 N, 100.3 E
03 OCT 24 1200 12.0 N 100.2 E 1009 25 27 TMD: 12.5 N, 98.8 E
03 OCT 24 1800 12.6 N 99.6 E 25
03 OCT 25 0600 12.5 N 97.4 E 25
03 OCT 25 1800 13.1 N 95.2 E 25
03 OCT 26 0600 13.4 N 93.7 E 25
03 OCT 26 1800 13.6 N 91.4 E 30
03 OCT 27 0300 14.0 N 90.5 E 30 IMD Bulletin
03 OCT 27 0600 14.6 N 88.9 E 35 IMD-12Z: 14.5 N, 89.0 E
03 OCT 27 1800 16.9 N 86.2 E 35 IMD: 15.5 N, 87.5 E
03 OCT 28 0000 17.2 N 86.0 E 1008 30 TMD Bulletin
03 OCT 28 0600 18.2 N 84.0 E 1008 30 30 TMD: 17.5 N, 84.8 E
Note: Portions of this track are based on bulletins from the
Meteorological Departments of India (IMD) and Thailand (TMD),
respectively. The IMD and TMD tracks were sent by Huang Chunliang.
TMD upgraded the LPC (low-pressure cell) to tropical depression status
initially at 22/0600 UTC, then downgraded it back to a LPC at 1800 UTC
on 24 October. It was re-upgraded to tropical depression status at
28/0000 UTC, but again downgraded to a LPC at 1200 UTC since the
center had moved inland. It isn't completely certain if TMD uses
a 1-minute or 10-minute averaging period, but it seems best to consider
their MSW estimates as being 10-minute averages. IMD upgraded the
LOW to depression status at 26/1200 UTC, and further to deep depression
status, which implies 30-kt winds (1-min avg), at 27/0300 UTC. IMD's
final bulletin was issued at 28/1200 UTC, noting that the deep
depression had crossed coastal Andhra Pradesh between Vishakatnam
and Kalingapatnam around 0900 UTC on 28 October and rapidly weakened
into a low-pressure area.
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
!!!!!! IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ !!!!!!
To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note
at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks
I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/
advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone
warning agencies around the world. Users of these tracks should
be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
analysts at the several warning centers.
For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:
http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
SPECIAL NOTE: Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
websites:
ftp:// ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
PREPARED BY:
Gary Padgett [email protected]
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:
Michael V. Padua [email protected]
[email protected]
Huang Chunliang [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: trak0310.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |