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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 2004
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                 MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                              OCTOBER, 2004
                                

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.  Also, see the Special
  Feature for a list of links to many websites where tropical cyclone
  images, archived warnings, and other types of information may be
  accessed.)

  *************************************************************************

                            OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

   --> Two typhoons strike Japan--one rather deadly
   --> Atlantic quietens down considerably--only two minor storms
   --> First officially-named North Indian Ocean cyclone forms

  *************************************************************************

              ***** Feature of the Month for October *****

                   A COMPARISON OF THE WIND FIELDS IN
             HURRICANE EDNA (1954) AND HURRICANE JUAN (2003)
             -----------------------------------------------

     Several months ago I received a copy of a paper from Chris Fogarty
  of the Canadian Hurricane Centre.  This paper was a study of the two
  most significant Atlantic hurricanes which have affected the Province
  of Nova Scotia during the past century:  Hurricane Edna of 1954 and
  the recent Hurricane Juan of 2003.  I would like to thank Chris for
  sending me a copy of his paper and for giving me permission to include
  it as a monthly feature.  The following is taken pretty much verbatim
  from Chris' paper, except that I've removed references to a few
  diagrams which his original paper included, and I've added the wind
  speeds in knots in parentheses following the values in kilometres per
  hour.


  A. Introduction
  ---------------

     Hurricane Juan will go down in the books as one of the great weather
  disasters of Nova Scotian history.  The storm unleashed its fury on the
  woodlands of central Nova Scotia, causing massive tree blowdowns that
  amounted to approximately one billion board feet of timber loss in the
  short span of just a few hours (source: Nova Scotia Department of Natural
  Resources -- NSDNR).  The last "big blow" that many of the "old timers"
  tell me about occurred in 1954 with Hurricane Edna.  That storm destroyed
  approximately 0.7 billion board feet of timber across Nova Scotia, but
  over a much larger area than Juan.  The fact that trees were in full,
  green foliage during these storms greatly increased the impacts,
  especially when you factor in the amount of deciduous trees in the urban
  areas and the combination of uprooted trees falling onto power lines.

     In this short paper I will compare these two very different storms
  and discuss the most significant inland impacts of tree blowdowns.  In
  terms of overall timber loss the difference between Edna and Juan is
  not all that great, but when one looks at the structure of the wind
  field in each storm, the differences become more apparent.  Hurricane
  Juan was a much more compact storm when it crossed Nova Scotia, and the
  significant impact was felt within approximately 150 km from the storm
  center track.  On the other hand, Hurricane Edna was a much larger storm,
  and the center was nowhere near Nova Scotia.  Edna tracked over central
  New Brunswick, but the damaging winds occurred out to approximately
  500 km from the storm center track.  Hurricane Edna was rapidly under-
  going extratropical transition to a large mid-latitude storm unlike
  Juan, which was a strong, compact hurricane.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

  (1) Hurricane Edna
  ------------------

     Edna formed east of the Caribbean Leeward Islands and moved around
  the outer periphery of the island chain while reaching Category 3
  intensity just off the Bahamas.  Edna then skirted along the U. S.
  Eastern Seaboard, clipping Cape Cod as a Category 1 hurricane and
  making landfall near Bar Harbour, Maine, while undergoing extratropical
  transition.  Edna raced across central New Brunswick with a forward
  speed near 50 knots.

  (2) Hurricane Juan
  ------------------

     Juan was much shorter-lived, and formed at a higher latitude (28N)
  than Edna (11N).  Juan therefore had less time to intensify, but still
  reached Category 2 strength.  As Juan moved northward it came under the
  influence of stronger deep-layered mean flow, which accelerated the
  storm toward Nova Scotia.  Juan arrived in Nova Scotia just west of
  Halifax as a marginal Category 2 hurricane, travelling at approximately
  30 knots as it crossed the province.


  C. Upper-level Analyses
  -----------------------

     The 500-mb flow patterns for the two hurricanes differ considerably.
  For example, Edna was well-embedded in the 500-mb flow contours while
  Juan was just moving into the region of stronger flow.  The 500-mb
  pattern for Edna was certainly characteristic of a storm in mid-
  extratropical transition.  Edna was moving to the northeast at 50 knots
  while Juan was moving about 30 knots at landfall.  The proximity of the
  mid-latitude trough was much further west in the case of Juan.


  D. Analyses of Wind and Pressure Fields
  ---------------------------------------

     Surface weather plots and manual sea level pressure analyses of
  Edna and Juan near the time of landfall clearly indicate that Edna
  was a much larger storm with the tightest pressure gradient situated
  over mainland Nova Scotia and well away from the center of the low.
  Juan, on the other hand, was a much more compact storm and the tightest
  pressure gradient was confined to the central Atlantic coast of Nova
  Scotia.

     During Hurricane Juan the highest winds were reported just east of
  the storm track.  For example, at Shearwater (YAW) the maximum winds
  were 100 km/hr (54 kts) gusting to 130 km/hr (71 kts), at Halifax Inter-
  national (YHZ) they were 100 km/hr (54 kts) gusting to 142 km/hr (77
  kts), and at Charlottetown 94 km/hr (51 kts) gusting to 139 km/hr
  (76 kts).  The highest winds from a land station were at McNab's
  Island in Halifax Harbour with winds of 151 km/hr (82 kts) gusting
  to 176 km/hr (96 kts).  In Edna, the wind gust data are not available,
  but the maximum sustained winds in the storm were 97 km/hr (53 kts)
  at four stations (Yarmouth and Shearwater, Nova Scotia, and Charlotte-
  town and Summerside, Prince Edward Island).  Moncton, New Brunswick,
  reported maximum sustained winds of 103 km/hr (56 kts).  In terms of
  the sustained winds, there seems to be little difference between the
  storms.  It is clear that these winds were more widespread in Edna.
  Near the storm track in Fredericton and Saint John, New Brunswick,
  winds were sustained at only 60 km/hr (33 kts) and likely gusted to
  80 or 90 km/hr (43-49 kts).  This would normally be enough to break
  a few large tree branches, but nothing like what happened further
  east.  If Hurricane Juan's wind field were overlaid onto Edna's track,
  one would find the worst winds over the Saint John and Fredericton
  areas.  Based on my experience here in Nova Scotia, one can expect to
  see trees being uprooted when winds are sustained around 80 km/hr
  (43 kts) and gusting to hurricane force (120 km/hr or 65 kts).


  E. Conclusions
  --------------

     Here you can see clearly different storms occurring around the same
  time of year (September) with differing wind fields, yet producing
  comparable magnitudes of tree fall damage.  The areal extent of high
  winds is much larger in the Hurricane Edna case than Hurricane Juan.
  Given the total amount of tree damage per unit area based on NSDNR
  estimates, Hurricane Juan was characterized by more extreme and localized
  damage -- more trees fallen per unit area, if you will.  We saw after
  Juan that there were many large patches of woodlands completely flattened
  as if a giant foot had stomped upon the earth.  I am not familiar with
  what the tree damage patterns in Edna would have been like, but it would
  be reasonable to assume that there were fewer large swaths of downed
  trees, but a wider expanse of tree clusters and individual trees downed.
  Nonetheless, Edna was certainly one of the most memorable hurricane-
  related storms in Nova Scotia in the latter half of the 20th century.

     From a weather forecasting perspective, these two events represent a
  realistic range of forecast problems regarding the expanding wind field
  of a hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.  In the case of Juan,
  the significant wind threat/damage extended from 20 km left of to 150 km
  right of the storm track while in Edna, the threat/damage was from
  approximately 100 to 500 km right of the track.  The most interesting
  observation, which prompted me to compare/contrast these two cases, was
  that extreme wind damage occurred in a situation where winds were not
  associated with the eyewall of the hurricane.  Clearly the winds in
  Edna that swept across Nova Scotia were not eyewall winds, yet were due
  to combined effects of a rapidly-moving cyclone whose wind field was
  expanding radially-outward into an area of high pressure to the east.
  The isobars (and air parcel trajectories) follow generally straight
  lines on the right side of the storm in this example of extratropical
  transition.  The centrifugal component of the wind field is essentially
  absent in this case, thereby permitting higher surface winds for a given
  pressure gradient than for the same gradient in highly curved flow as
  in the hurricane core or on the left side of a rapidly-moving cyclone.

  (Paper written by Chris Fogarty--2 March 2004)

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for October: 1 tropical storm
                        1 subtropical storm


                         Sources of Information
                         ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                  Atlantic Tropical Activity for October
                  --------------------------------------

     As the month of October opened, long-lived Tropical Storm Lisa was
  moving northward between Bermuda and the Azores.  The cyclone turned
  northeastward and briefly became a minimal hurricane before losing its
  tropical characteristics.  The report on Lisa can be found in the
  September summary.  Two named cyclones formed during the month--both
  rather minor.  Tropical Storm Matthew formed in the western Gulf of
  Mexico on the 8th and moved into south-central Louisiana on the 10th.
  Subtropical Storm Nicole formed near Bermuda early on the 10th and
  headed northeastward, being absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone
  by late on the 11th.  Brief reports on both these systems follow.

     A couple of other systems, both non-tropical LOWs, deserve some
  mention.  A large non-tropical low-pressure system was located about
  500 nm southwest of the southern Azores on 11 October, moving quickly
  southwestward.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were seen to be
  forming well away from the LLCC.  The STWOs issued by TPC/NHC indicated
  that there was some potential for subtropical cyclone development as
  the system moved toward warmer waters.  However, by the 15th the LOW
  was moving northward into cooler SSTs and the potential for development
  had diminished.   Later in the month another non-tropical storm system
  formed near Bermuda and was considered a possible candidate for
  subtropical storm development.  On the afternoon of the 23rd the storm
  was located about 130 nm northwest of Bermuda, and over the next few
  days moved off to the east-northeast.  Late on the 26th the storm was
  located approximately 400 nm east-northeast of the island, and several
  smaller low-level cyclonic swirls were seen to be moving counter-
  clockwise around the periphery of the larger low-pressure area, but
  none of these small LLCCs was showing any signs of subtropical cyclone
  formation.  This was the last reference to the system in the TPC/NHC
  tropical weather outlooks.  It is interesting to note that SAB assigned
  Hebert/Poteat ST classifications on 23-25 October, reaching ST2.5/2.5
  on the 24th.



                          TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
                                  (TC-14)
                              8 - 11 October
                ------------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Matthew was a short-lived minor tropical storm whose
  origins can be traced back to a tropical wave which exited the west
  coast of Africa on 19 September.  The wave was very difficult to track
  at times, but eventually entered the Caribbean on the 29th where it
  began to interact with an upper-level LOW.  The associated shower
  activity reached the Bay of Campeche by 5 October where it became
  stationary and began to gradually become better organized.  On the 7th
  a reconnaissance aircraft found that a broad area of low pressure had
  formed just east of Tampico, Mexico.  The system continued to increase
  in organization and Tropical Storm Matthew was named at 2100 UTC on
  the 8th while located about 225 nm east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.

     Matthew initially moved toward the east and east-northeast, but
  gradually curved to the north due to the steering influence of a large
  mid to upper-level LOW over western Texas.  The cyclone peaked at 40 kts
  with an estimated CP of 997 mb around mid-day on the 9th, and then
  gradually weakened before making landfall near Houma, Louisiana, around
  1200 UTC on 10 October.   One tornado briefly touched down near Golden
  Meadow but cause minor damage.  There were no known deaths or injuries
  due to Matthew.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Matthew, authored
  by Lixion Avila, is available at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004matthew.shtml?>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon official TPC/NHC report)



                         SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE
                                  (TC-15)
                              10 - 11 October
               --------------------------------------------

     The most interesting thing about Subtropical Storm Nicole was that it
  was the first named Atlantic subtropical storm which did not make the
  transition into a tropical cyclone.  It was in late 2001 that the NHC
  operational procedures were modified to allow subtropical storms to be
  assigned names from the tropical cyclone naming list, and all the systems
  since which were first named as subtropical storms (Gustav and Kyle in
  September, 2002, and Ana in April, 2003) all were eventually reclassified
  as tropical storms or hurricanes.

     Nicole's origins lay with an upper-tropospheric trough and a decaying
  frontal system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the first week
  of October.  By the 8th a broad area of surface low pressure had become
  evident about 400 nm southeast of Bermuda.   Although the system lacked
  a single, well-defined center of circulation, it began to produce gales
  which affected Bermuda on the 9th.  By very early on the 10th a better-
  defined LLCC had formed about 140 nm south of Bermuda, and Subtropical
  Storm Nicole was christened at 10/0600 UTC.  Nicole initially moved
  northwestward, then turned northward and northeastward ahead of an
  approaching mid-tropospheric trough moving off the New England coast.
  The closest approach to Bermuda occurred around 11/0000 UTC when Nicole's
  center passed about 50 nm northwest of the island.  Early on the 11th
  the system made an attempt to gain full tropical status as some deep
  convection formed near the center, but this was soon sheared by strong
  upper-level southwesterlies.  Nicole was absorbed by a strong extra-
  tropical cyclone to the north shortly after 11/1800 UTC.  The peak
  intensity of 45 kts was estimated to have occurred shortly before Nicole
  was absorbed by the extratropical LOW.  No deaths or injuries have been
  attributed to Subtropical Storm Nicole.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Subtropical Storm Nicole, written
  by Richard Pasch and David Roberts, is available at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004nicole.shtml?>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon official TPC/NHC report)
  
  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression
                         2 tropical storms


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.


              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for October
              -----------------------------------------------

     The month of October was well below normal in the Northeast Pacific
  basin.  Two minor tropical storms formed--Kay and Lester--and brief
  reports on these systems follow.  Advisories were issued on one other
  tropical depression--the final one of the season.  The origins of
  Tropical Depression 16E, like most NEP systems, lay with a tropical wave
  of African origin which left the coast of Africa on 8 October.  Moving
  across the Atlantic at a low latitude, the wave emerged into the Eastern
  North Pacific on 18 October.  The system became stationary around the
  23rd of October about 450 nm south of the tip of the Baja California
  Peninsula.  Gradual organization ensued and advisories were initiated on
  TD-16E at 2100 UTC on 25 October.   The depression moved northward,
  passing just east of Cabo San Lucas and into the Sea of Cortez.  Landfall
  occurred along the Mexican coast midway between Guasave and Topolobampo
  around 26/1000 UTC.  The depression quickly dissipated in the high
  terrain of the Sierra Madres.  No damage or casualties have been
  attributed to the final tropical cyclone of the 2004 Eastern North
  Pacific season.  The official TPC/NHC report on this system, authored
  by Stacy Stewart, can be accessed at the following link:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004sixteen-e.shtml?/



                          TROPICAL STORM KAY
                               (TC-14E)
                            4 - 6 October
                --------------------------------------

     Tropical Storm Kay was an inconsequential tropical storm which flared
  up briefly well south of the Baja California Peninsula.  Kay seems to
  have originated within an area of disturbed weather in the intertropical
  convergence zone on 3 October.  This system did not appear to be
  associated with a tropical wave.   Tropical Depression 14E formed around
  1800 UTC on 4 October about 515 nm southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and
  was upgraded operationally to Tropical Storm Kay at 1200 UTC on the 5th
  while located about 600 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas.  In post-storm
  analysis it was determined that the cyclone had reached tropical storm
  intensity by 05/0600 UTC.  The peak intensity during Kay's brief history
  was estimated at 40 kts at 05/1200 UTC.  No sooner had Kay been named
  than the deep convection began to decrease under moderate northerly
  shear and the system was downgraded to a tropical depression only six
  hours after being named.  The depression turned southwestward and had
  dissipated by the next day.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Kay, written by
  David Roberts and Miles Lawrence, may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004kay.shtml?>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon official TPC/NHC report)



                          TROPICAL STORM LESTER
                                 (TC-15E)
                             11 - 13 October
                -----------------------------------------

     The final named cyclone of the 2004 Northeast Pacific season developed
  in an area of disturbed weather which had persisted a couple hundred
  nautical miles to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 8-10
  October.  A surface LOW gradually developed in the area and advisories
  were initiated on Tropical Depression 15E at 1800 UTC on the 11th.  The
  center of TD-15E was approximately 80 nm south of Puerto Escondido,
  Mexico, or about 250 nm southeast of Acapulco.  TD-15E moved on a general
  northwesterly track for a couple of days, bringing it near the Mexican
  coast in the vicinity of Acapulco.  A weak upper-level anticyclone just
  to the east provided a favorable environment for intensification, and
  the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Lester at 2100 UTC on the 12th
  when located about 45 nm southeast of Acapulco.

     The cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 45 kts at 13/0000
  UTC (based on the "best track") and passed just south of Acapulco around
  13/0400 UTC.  A couple of hours later Lester began to weaken rapidly
  due to the interaction with land and the influence of a larger low-
  level cyclonic circulation to the southwest.  A U. S. Air Force Hurricane
  Hunter aircraft later in the day found that Lester had degenerated into
  a trough just off the Mexican coast.  Operationally, Lester was main-
  tained as a tropical storm through 13/1800 UTC, but based upon the post-
  storm analysis, in the "best track" file the cyclone has been downgraded
  to depression status at 13/1200 UTC.  No reports of damage or casualties
  resulting from Tropical Storm Lester have been received.

     Huang Chunliang sent me one rainfall report in association with
  Tropical Storm Lester.  Puerto Angel, Oaxaca State, Mexico, (WMO 76855,
  15.68N/96.48W) recorded 115.3 mm of rain during the 24-hour period
  between 11/0000 and 12/0000 UTC.

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Lester, authored
  by Richard Pasch and David Roberts, is available at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004lester.shtml?>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett, based upon the official TPC/NHC report)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for October:  2 tropical depressions **
                         2 typhoons
                         1 super typhoon
        
  ** - these were treated as tropical depressions by JMA only


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
  sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
  Pacific basin.  A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
  the assistance they so reliably provide.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


               Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for October
               -----------------------------------------------

     After somewhat of a lull in typhoon activity during September, three
  vigorous typhoons roared to life in the NWP during October.  The first,
  Ma-on, became an intense super typhoon, peaking at 140 kts.  Ma-on sprang
  to life in the Philippine Sea about midway between Luzon and the Marianas
  very early in the month.  Initially moving northward, Ma-on veered
  northwestward for a couple of days as it reached typhoon intensity.  The
  storm then recurved to the northeast well southeast of Okinawa and raced
  toward southeastern Japan.   Although weakening to below super typhoon
  status, Ma-on became the strongest typhoon to affect southeastern Japan
  in over 10 years when it made landfall near Tokyo.

     The next in the series, Typhoon Tokage, didn't quite reach super
  typhoon status as it peaked at 125 kts, but ultimately was more deadly
  to Japan than Typhoon Ma-on had been.  Tokage, which means 'lizard' in
  Japanese, reached its maximum intensity while moving slowly northwestward
  well to the east of northern Luzon.  The storm had weakened considerably
  by the time it made landfall on Shikoku on the 19th.  Interestingly, JTWC
  had downgraded Tokage to a tropical storm prior to landfall, whereas JMA 
  was carrying it as an 80-kt (10-min avg) typhoon.

     The third member of the trio, Typhoon Nock-ten, followed a very long
  trajectory from its birthplace in the Caroline Islands, passing well to
  the south of Guam as a minimal typhoon, thence turning northwestward in
  the direction of Taiwan.  Nock-ten didn't quite attain the intensity of
  its predecessors, but nonetheless became an impressive typhoon, peaking
  at 110 kts.  The storm began to turn to the north and weaken as it
  approached Taiwan.  Typhoon Nock-ten passed over the extreme northeastern
  tip of the island before recurving and weakening to tropical storm
  status.  The remnant extratropical LOW subsequently sailed eastward,
  passing well to the south of typhoon-weary Japan.

     There were two additional weak systems during the month which were
  referenced as tropical depressions by JMA in that agency's High Seas
  Bulletins.  One very short-lived system was located north of the Mariana
  Islands on 4 October near 23N/145E.  This weak system was carried as a
  tropical depression for only 12 hours.  Another somewhat longer-lived
  depression formed on 10 October well to the east of northern Luzon.  This
  system moved slowly northward over the next day or so, reaching the
  vicinity of 25N/132E early on the 11th.   It remained quasi-stationary
  through 0600 UTC on the 13th when it was last mentioned.  No tracks were
  included for these systems in the companion tropical cyclone tracks file.

     Individual reports follow on Super Typhoon Ma-on, Typhoon Tokage and
  Typhoon Nock-ten (known in the Philippines by the names Rolly, Siony and
  Tonyo, respectively).  The reports were written by Kevin Boyle with
  supplementary information from Huang Chunliang.   A special thanks to 
  Chunliang and Kevin for their assistance.



                          SUPER TYPHOON MA-ON
                      (TC-26W / TY 0422 / ROLLY)
                             3 - 10 October
            ----------------------------------------------

  Ma-on: contributed by Hong Kong, China, means 'horse saddle', and
         is also the name of a peak in Hong Kong

  A. Introduction
  ----------------

    Ma-on formed from a cluster of thunderstorms in the vicinity of Guam
  on 29 September.  After initial erratic movement, this small system first
  drifted north before turning to a west-northwesterly track.  Upon
  reaching typhoon intensity Ma-on recurved and ultimately became the
  sixth super typhoon of the year before becoming the worst storm to hit
  eastern Japan in over ten years.  And this only a week after Typhoon
  Meari had made landfall in that nation.


  B. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Super Typhoon Ma-on stemmed from an area of convection which developed
  and persisted approximately 70 nm north-northwest of Guam.    It was
  initially mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 0600 UTC 29 September.  Multi-
  spectral satellite imagery revealed a weak LLCC with disorganized and
  cyclic convection.  An upper-level analysis revealed an area of weak
  shear and moderate diffluence.  The potential for development was set at
  'poor'.  There was little change over the following two days.  The 
  potential was raised to 'fair' at 01/2330 UTC after convection increased
  and became more organized over the centre.  However, this was downgraded
  to 'poor' again in the regular STWO at 02/0600 UTC when convection failed
  to consolidate around the LLCC.  Although shear continued to be weak at
  high levels, the centre was bounded by stronger shear to the east and
  northwest.  Also, vorticity had weakened and become more linear while
  diffluence was neutral.  Potential remained 'poor' at 03/0600 UTC when
  the system was located 790 nm east of Manila, Philippines.

     Things had improved by 1430 UTC 3 October.  A 03/0903 UTC QuikScat
  pass showed a tighter and better-defined LLCC while enhanced infrared 
  satellite imagery revealed that convection had both increased and
  consolidated over the centre.  Also, at 03/1200 UTC a ship reported winds
  of 20 kts approximately 300 nm to the south.  Based on these events, the
  development potential was upped to 'fair'.  It was then upgraded to
  'good' at 03/1900 UTC, and the first warning on Tropical Depression 26W
  followed at 04/0000 UTC.  Six hours later the depression became Tropical
  Storm Ma-on when both JTWC and JMA upgraded their respective MSWs to
  35-kts and 40-kts (10-min avg).  However, strengthening temporarily
  ceased as the system became stationary approximately 650 nm southeast of
  Okinawa, Japan.  At 03/1800 UTC PAGASA started monitoring the system,
  naming it Rolly upon the storm's crossing the 135th parallel.


  C. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     At 0000 UTC 5 October Tropical Storm Ma-on was drifting slowly
  northward at 3 kts approximately 615 nm southeast of Okinawa.
  Strengthening resumed at 05/0600 UTC as the storm began to move a little
  faster towards the north-northeast.  At this time the MSW was raised to
  45 kts.  The small system then turned northward, and was moving north-
  westward at 6 kts at 05/1800 UTC when the intensity had climbed a bit
  more to 50 kts.  For the near term, Ma-on's movement was being dictated
  by an intensifying HIGH to the northeast, and this synoptic feature was
  to push the tropical cyclone primarily west-northwestward for the next
  24 hours.  Meanwhile, the storm intensified and was upgraded to a 70-kt
  typhoon at 06/1200 UTC.  At this time the centre was located 410 nm
  southeast of Okinawa, Japan.

     At 0000 UTC 7 October Typhoon Ma-on was still tracking west-
  northwestward with 75-kt winds approximately 320 nm south-southeast of
  Okinawa.  As things stood, Ma-on was moving around the western side of
  the HIGH located to the northeast, but changes were afoot.   A trough
  exiting the east coast of China was expected to become vertically-
  oriented, favouring a poleward heading towards Japan.    Typhoon Ma-on
  quickly responded to this synoptic alteration by turning northwestward,
  then northward before completing recurvature at 07/1800 UTC.  During 
  this period, the storm rapidly intensified after forming an eye.  The MSW
  climbed alarmingly to 90 kts at 0600 UTC, to 115 kts at 1200 UTC, and to
  125 kts at 1800 UTC.
 
     Ma-on was upgraded to a 140-kt super-typhoon at 0000 UTC 8 October
  while located approximately 250 nm southeast of Okinawa, Japan.  At this
  time, typhoon-force winds extended outward 35 nm in all quadrants and
  40 nm in the southwest quadrant.  Gales reached out as far as 120 nm in
  the southwest quadrant.  Ma-on started to accelerate northeastward over
  the western periphery of the HIGH to the east as it maintained 140-kt
  winds.  However, the eye began to shrink in diameter at 08/0600 UTC and
  became more ragged in appearance six hours later.  In addition, the
  system was looking less symmetric in microwave imagery with the strongest
  deep convection located in the southwest quadrant.  The MSW started to
  fall at 08/1800 UTC but Ma-on held on to its super typhoon title at this
  time.

     Ma-on was downgraded to a 115-kt typhoon at 0000 UTC 9 October
  approximately 290 nm southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  It was speeding north-
  northeastward at 29 kts at this time.  Animated water vapour imagery
  showed that the system was in the early stages of extratropical
  transition with dry air intrusion in the southwestern quadrant and an
  elongated cirrus shield to the northeast.  Turning northeastward, Ma-on
  made landfall on the Izu Peninsula, Honshu, Japan, at 09/0700 UTC with a
  MSW of 90 kts.   After coming ashore, Ma-on weakened rapidly and was
  downgraded to a 50-kt tropical storm at 09/1800 UTC.  At this time, the
  system had completed its transformation into an extratropical system.
  The remnant system rapidly moved northeastward, then east-northeastward
  away from eastern Japan before slowing abruptly to around 10 kts roughly
  1100 nm southeast of Hokkaido.
  
     All Asian TC agencies except CWB classified Ma-on as a 100-kt (10-min
  avg) typhoon with JMA estimating a minimum CP of 920 mb.  The CWB of
  Taiwan estimated a peak MSW of 105 kts while PAGASA's maximum intensity
  of 100 kts was during the period the typhoon was passing through their
  AOR.   

   
  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Ma-on was one of the most powerful storms to strike eastern Japan over
  the last ten years.  The typhoon left at least six people dead, and three
  persons were reported missing.   Plane, train and ferry services nation-
  wide were disrupted, stranding thousands of travellers.  More than 378
  domestic and international flights and most ferry services along the east
  coast were cancelled.  In central and eastern Japan, railway operators
  suspended bullet and local train services and roads were closed to
  traffic.  Heavy downpours also disrupted the practice sessions for 
  Formula One's Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka but the race went ahead as
  planned.  Rescuers on boats plucked dozens of residents from waterlogged
  homes in Shizuoka Prefecture.    Authorities ordered evacuations in
  Shizuoka, Mie, Wakayama, Nara and Osaka prefectures, and about 1500 
  people left their homes for public shelters.


  E. Huang Chunliang Report
  -------------------------

     Following is the report compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang of
  Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.  A special thanks to Chunliang
  for compiling and sending the information.  (To convert wind velocity
  in metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide m/s by 0.51444, or for an
  approximation, simply double the m/s value.)


  {Part I}. Landfall Obs (based on the JMA warnings)
  ==================================================

     Severe Typhoon 0422 (MA-ON) made landfall over Izu Peninsula, Shizuoka
  Prefecture, around 09/0700 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 950 hPa.


  {Part II}. Top-5 Storm Total [06/1500-09/1500Z] Obs
  ===================================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Shizuoka          Omaezaki          413
  02         Shizuoka          Shimizu           393
  03         Kanagawa          Hakone            392
  04         Yamanashi         Yamanaka          385
  05         Shizuoka          Yugashima         371


  {Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Obs
  ====================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Shizuoka          Omaezaki         *360 [08/1500-09/1500Z]
  02         Shizuoka          Shimizu           297 [08/1500-09/1500Z]
  03         Shizuoka          Makinohara        267 [08/1500-09/1500Z]
  04         Shizuoka          Yugashima         265 [08/1500-09/1500Z]
  05         Shizuoka          Shizuoka          262 [08/1500-09/1500Z]


  {Part IV}. Top-5 1-hr Rainfall Obs
  ==================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  --------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Shizuoka          Omaezaki         *89 [09/0530-09/0630Z]
  02         Shizuoka          Yugashima         75 [09/0630-09/0730Z]
  03         Tokyo             Tokyo             69 [09/0810-09/0910Z]
  04         Chiba             Kamoga            67 [08/1550-08/1650Z]
  05         Kanagawa          Hakone            66 [09/0650-09/0750Z]


  {Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Obs
  ====================================================

  Ranking    Station                                      Peak wind (mps)
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Ajiro, Shizuoka (WMO47668, Alt 67m)         *39.4 [09/0720Z]
  02         Irouzaki, Shizuoka (WMO47666, Alt 55m)       30.2 [09/0650Z]
  03         Haneda, Tokyo (JMA44166, Alt 6m)            *29   [09/0830Z]
  04         Omaezaki, Shizuoka (WMO47655, Alt 45m)       27.5 [09/0550Z]
  05         Ojima, Tokyo (WMO47675, Alt 74m)            *27.0 [09/0740Z]


  {Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Obs
  ==============================

  Ranking    Station                                      Peak wind (mps)
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Irouzaki, Shizuoka (WMO47666, Alt 55m)      *67.6 [09/0607Z]
  02         Ajiro, Shizuoka (WMO47668, Alt 67m)         *63.3 [09/0713Z]
  03         Ojima, Tokyo (WMO47675, Alt 74m)            *51.5 [09/0725Z]
  04         Omaezaki, Shizuoka (WMO47655, Alt 45m)       50.0 [09/0547Z]
  05         Yokohama, Kanagawa (WMO47670, Alt 39m)       39.9 [09/0822Z]


  {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Obs
  =========================

  Ranking    Station                             Min SLP (hPa)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Irouzaki, Shizuoka (WMO47666)       964.0 [09/0644Z]
  02         Omaezaki, Shizuoka (WMO47655)       967.1 [09/0559Z]
  03         Ajiro, Shizuoka (WMO47668)          974.1 [09/0714Z]
  04         Mishima, Shizuoka (WMO47657)        978.9 [09/0653Z]
  05         Shizuoka, Shizuoka (WMO47656)       982.0 [09/0627Z]


  {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only)
  ===============================================

     http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/bosai/report/new/jyun_sokuji20041009.pdf>
     http://www.tokyo-jma.go.jp/sub_index/bosai/disaster/ty0422/ty0422.pdf>


  Note: "*" = record-breaking values for relevant stations.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang
  Chunliang)



                            TYPHOON TOKAGE
                      (TC-27W / TY 0423 / SIONY)
                            12 - 23 October
            ----------------------------------------------

  Tokage: contributed by Japan, is the word for 'lizard'

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     At 0000 UTC 12 October JTWC issued a TCFA for an area of convection
  located approximately 480 nm east-southeast of Guam.  At this time,
  animated multi-spectral and enhanced infrared satellite imagery revealed
  that deep convection was increasing around a partially-exposed LLCC.  An
  upper-level analysis indicated that the system was located underneath
  the axis of a near-equatorial ridge and in an area of low wind shear and
  favourable diffluence.  The system developed into Tropical Depression 27W
  at 12/1200 UTC, the storm moving in a west-northwesterly direction at
  15 kts and centred at that time 200 nm east of Guam. 


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     JTWC upgraded Tropical Depression 27W to a 35-kt tropical storm at
  1800 UTC 12 September when the system had moved to within 50 nm northeast
  of Guam and a little over 20 nm southeast of Rota.  The tropical cyclone
  subsequently moved westward, passing very near Rota, and then away from
  the islands.  At 13/0000 UTC JMA upped their MSW to 40 kts (10-min avg)
  and promoted the system to tropical storm intensity, naming the system
  Tokage from the list of international code names.  Tropical Storm Tokage
  slowed as it moved westward and was upgraded to a 75-kt typhoon at
  13/1800 UTC when centred some 970 nm southeast of Okinawa. 

     After the MSW had reached 80 kts at 0000 UTC 14 October, Tokage ceased
  strengthening for a short while and briefly turned onto a west-
  southwesterly heading.  The storm's path then gradually curved onto a
  northwesterly heading at 14/1800 UTC and the typhoon began to strengthen
  again, reaching an intensity of 100 kts at 15/0000 UTC.  Whilst an eye
  feature was visible in microwave imagery, this had so far eluded multi-
  spectral satellite imagery.  Maintaining 100-kt winds, Typhoon Tokage
  continued moving in a general northwesterly fashion, reaching a position
  750 nm south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan at 15/1200 UTC.  At this stage,
  Tokage decelerated and by 15/1800 UTC its forward speed was down to 
  4 kts. 

     Finally, a small eye appeared in multi-spectral satellite imagery at
  0000 UTC 16 October when Typhoon Tokage was still sporting a MSW of
  100 kts some 695 nm south-southeast of Okinawa.  The storm turned to a
  more poleward track as a major shortwave trough over Japan temporarily
  weakened the subtropical ridge.  Meanwhile, strengthening resumed and at 
  17/0000 UTC Tokage reached its peak intensity of 125 kts--just shy of
  super typhoon status.  At this time, typhoon-force winds extended out
  30 nm in the northern semicircle and up to 50 nm in the southern semi-
  circle while the radius of gales lay up to 180 nm in all but the south-
  east quadrant, where they reached as far as 200 nm.   Weakening began at
  17/1200 UTC as the storm made one last excursion towards the west-
  northwest, thence turning towards the northwest on the first leg of its 
  recurvature towards Okinawa and Japan.  The MSW had fallen to 115 kts at
  this time, and at 17/1800 UTC the eye had become a rather weak, ragged
  feature.
 
     At 0000 UTC 18 October Typhoon Tokage was approximately 290 nm south
  of Kadena AB, Okinawa, and was tracking northwestward at 11 kts around
  the western periphery of the subtropical ridge to the east.  The next in
  the series of shortwave troughs was expected to move across the Yellow
  Sea and weaken the ridge which was enticing Tokage onto a northeastward
  track towards Japan.  The intensity of the storm had fallen to 105 kts
  at 18/0000 UTC and to 95 kts at 18/0600 UTC.  Multi-spectral satellite
  imagery revealed that the eyewall had collapsed at this time, but the
  eyewall had reformed around the centre by 18/1200 UTC.  Tokage turned
  northward at 18/1800 UTC and was positioned 160 nm south-southwest of 
  Okinawa, Japan, with the MSW down slightly to 90 kts.  By 19/0000 UTC
  Typhoon Tokage was accelerating north-northeastward with the intensity
  down to 80 kts--the storm was then located approximately 85 nm south-
  southwest of Okinawa.  Tokage made its closest approach to Okinawa at 
  around 19/0600 UTC when it was passed 20 nm to the south-southeast.  The
  storm turned to the northeast as it continued to accelerate and weaken,
  and by 1800 UTC the intensity had dropped to 65 kts.   The system was
  beginning to undergo extratropical transition at this time.

     Tokage was downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm at 0000 UTC 20 October
  as it tracked towards the north-northeast at 28 kts approximately 265 nm
  southwest of Kyoto, Japan.  The system weakened quickly as cooler sea
  surface temperatures, drier air and high vertical wind shear all took
  their toll.  In addition, the ex-typhoon made landfall over Tosa-Shimizu,
  near the southern tip of Shikoku, Japan.   At this time, JMA estimated
  the MSW at 80 kts (10-min avg) with a CP of 950 hPa.  In fact, winds were
  not lowered below typhoon intensity until 20/1200 UTC, when JTWC dropped
  their MSW to 40 kts.  By then, the storm's centre was located 130 nm
  west of Tokyo.  Tokage was downgraded to a tropical depression at 20/1800
  UTC and the final warning was issued at this time by JTWC.   JMA
  maintained Tokage as a tropical entity until 21/0000 UTC when the system
  was declared extratropical.  The extratropical remnants of Tokage
  continued to move rapidly northeastward across the North Pacific,
  crossing the International Dateline shortly before 23/0000 UTC.

     JMA's estimated peak 10-min avg MSW and lowest CP were 85 kts and
  940 hPa, respectively.  The CWB of Taiwan's peak MSW was also 85 kts,
  whereas NMCC's highest MSW was 100 kts.  PAGASA applied the name
  Siony during the time Typhoon Tokage was located within that agency's
  AOR, and their highest estimated intensity was 95 kts (10-min avg).


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     According to news reports, Tokage was the worst storm to strike Japan
  since Typhoon Mireille in 1991.  A total of 69 deaths were attributed to
  high winds, flooding and mudslides caused by Tokage.  Seventeen persons
  were still unaccounted for several days after the storm.   A total of 
  18,000 people were forced to evacuate their homes.  The storm also caused
  the cancellation of 1000 flights, affecting 127,000 passengers.


  D. Huang Chunliang Report
  -------------------------

     Following is the report compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang of
  Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.  A special thanks to Chunliang
  for compiling and sending the information.  (To convert wind velocity
  in metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide m/s by 0.51444, or for an
  approximation, simply double the m/s value.)


  {Part I}. Landfalls (based on the JMA warnings)
  ===============================================

  1. Severe Typhoon 0423 (TOKAGE) made landfall near Tosa-Shimizu City,
  Kochi Prefecture, around 20/0400 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP
  of 955 hPa.

  2. Severe Typhoon 0423 (TOKAGE) made landfall near Muroto City, Kochi 
  Prefecture, around 20/0600 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 955 hPa.

  3. Severe Typhoon 0423 (TOKAGE) made landfall near Izumisano City, Osaka
  Prefectuve, around 20/0900Z with a MSW of 35 m/s and a CP of 970 hPa.


  {Part II}. Top-5 Storm Total [17/1500-21/1500Z] Obs
  ===================================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  ------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Tokushima         Fukuharaasahi     550
  02         Tokushima         Asahimaru         545
  03         Ehime             Tomisato          542
  04         Kochi             Funato            525
  05         Oita              Umi               503


  {Part III}. Top-5 Daily Rainfall Obs
  ====================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Tokushima         Fukuharaasahi     470 [19/1500-20/1500Z]
  02         Tokushima         Asahimaru         449 [19/1500-20/1500Z]
  03         Ehime             Tomisato         *441 [19/1500-20/1500Z]
  04         Kochi             Funato            426 [19/1500-20/1500Z]
  05         Kochi             Yanase            411 [19/1500-20/1500Z]


  {Part IV}. Top-5 1-hr Rainfall Obs
  ==================================

  Ranking    Prefecture        Station           Rainfall (mm)
  --------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Kochi             Geisei            87 [20/0450-20/0550Z]
  02         Tokushima         Asahimaru         74 [20/0330-20/0430Z]
  03         Mie               Miyagawa          73 [20/0600-20/0700Z]
  04         Hyogo             Sumoto            72 [20/0530-20/0630Z]
  05         Kochi             Funato            71 [20/0210-20/0310Z]
  05         Kochi             Kubokawa          71 [20/0220-20/0320Z]


  {Part V}. Top-5 Peak Sustained Wind (10-min avg) Obs
  ====================================================

  Ranking    Station                                      Peak wind (mps)
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Murotomisaki, Kochi (WMO47899, Alt 185m)     44.9 [20/0550Z]
  02         Nagi, Okayama (JMA66127, Alt 212m)          *34   [20/0800Z]
  03         Unzendake, Nagasaki (WMO47818, Alt 678m)    *33.5 [20/0300Z]
  04         Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942, Alt 27m)    29.0 [19/0900Z]
  05         Akyoshidai, Yamaguchi (JMA81196, Alt 240m)  *28   [20/0500Z]


  {Part VI}. Top-5 Peak Gust Obs
  ==============================

  Ranking    Station                                      Peak wind (mps)
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Unzendake, Nagasaki (WMO47818, Alt 678m)    *63.7 [20/0352Z]
  02         Murotomisaki, Kochi (WMO47899, Alt 185m)     59.0 [20/0515Z]
  03         Maitsuru, Kyoto (WMO47750, Alt 2m)          *51.9 [20/1127Z]
  04         Tsuyama, Okayama (WMO47756, Alt 146m)       *50.4 [20/0813Z]
  05         Sasebo, Nagasaki (WMO47812, Alt 4m)         *49.3 [20/0157Z]


  {Part VII}. Top-5 SLP Obs
  =========================

  Ranking    Station                             Min SLP (hPa)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------
  01         Okinoerabu, Kagoshima (WMO47942)    949.4 [19/1137Z]
  02         Nago, Okinawa (WMO47940)            950.8 [19/0732Z]
  03         Naze, Kagoshima (WMO47909)          951.0 [19/1502Z]
  04         Naha, Okinawa (WMO47936)            952.4 [19/0558Z]
  05         Yakushima, Kagoshima (WMO47836)     956.3 [19/2101Z]


  {Part VIII} References (Japanese versions only)
  ===============================================

     http://www.data.kishou.go.jp>
     http://www.osaka-jma.go.jp/gyomusyokai/kikocho/saigai/h16/ty200423.pdf>


  Note: "*" = record-breaking values for relevant stations.

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang
  Chunliang)



                           TYPHOON NOCK-TEN
                      (TC-28W / TY 0424 / TONYO)
                            14 - 27 October
            ----------------------------------------------

  Nock-ten: contributed by Laos, is the name of a type of bird

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     Typhoon Nock-ten originated from a disturbance that formed amongst
  the Marshall Islands, and was first mentioned in a STWO at 1730 UTC
  12 October when it was located approximately 45 nm west of Kwajalein
  Atoll.  Initially described as a 'poor' development area, the potential
  for tropical cyclone formation was raised to 'good' at 13/1430 UTC and a 
  TCFA issued.  The first warning was published on Tropical Depression 28W
  at 14/0000 UTC, which was centred at that time 275 nm east-northeast of
  Pohnpei and moving westward along the southern periphery of the mid-level
  steering ridge situated to the northeast.  TD-28W exhibited little change
  over the next couple of days, and apart from a slight increase in 
  intensity to 30 kts, there was little else to report.  The system tracked
  generally west-northwestward, then turned towards the northwest early on 
  the 15th.  The storm then decelerated to a slow westward drift at 15/1800
  UTC when it was relocated to a position 255 nm north-northeast of Pohnpei.
  The reason for TD-28's lack of development was its proximity to an
  unfavourably-placed upper-level LOW which was located to its west.


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     Tropical Depression 28W was still looking rather disorganised early
  on the 16th.  At 0000 UTC the poorly-defined centre was readjusted
  to a position approximately 445 nm east-northeast of Chuuk.   Slow 
  strengthening was forecast, and JTWC upgraded TD-28W to a 35-kt tropical
  storm at 16/0600 UTC.  JMA followed suit six hours later, naming the
  system Nock-ten.   The newly-christened Nock-ten intensified at a rate of
  5 kts per warning until it was on the verge of becoming a typhoon at
  17/1200 UTC.   Late on the 17th, the storm turned more southwestward, its
  forward speed once again slowing to around 4 kts.    The system was
  promoted to a 65-kt typhoon at 18/0000 UTC.  A sluggish southwesterly
  heading was still evident, but this progressively veered towards the west
  as the day wore on.

     The 18th was the day of the most significant intensification that
  Nock-ten underwent in its entire lifetime.  The MSW rose to 85 kts at
  18/1200 UTC, but there was to be no further strengthening until 19/0000
  UTC.  At this time, the cloud-filled, ragged eye associated with Typhoon
  Nock-ten was located 300 nm southeast of Guam.  It was still tracking
  in a westerly direction at a faster pace, but once again the storm
  stuttered.   However, Nock-ten soon accelerated again and curved onto a
  west-northwest to northwest track in response to a change in the position
  of the steering ridge caused by a trough crossing Japan, plus the
  remnants of Typhoon Tokage.  Typhoon Nock-ten returned to the slow
  strengthening habits of its earlier days with an increase of only 5 kts
  during the 19th and 20th.  The MSW held at 95 kts through the 20th as the
  storm wobbled on its west-northwest to northwest path, passing 160 nm
  south of Guam at 20/0000 UTC.

     Typhoon Nock-ten remained stuck at 95 kts through the 21st, apart from
  a slight dip in intensity to 90 kts at 1200 UTC on 21 October.  The storm
  recovered this small deficit and re-strengthened back to 95 kts six hours
  later.  The system finally intensified into a 100-kt typhoon at 22/0600 
  UTC as it headed northwestward approximately 780 nm to the southeast of
  Okinawa, Japan.    Nock-ten then turned west-northwestward late on the 
  22nd and continued this track through the next day, reaching a peak 
  intensity of 110 kts at 23/0000 UTC.  This was maintained for twelve 
  hours, the MSW falling slightly to 105 kts at 23/1200 UTC.  At this time,
  Nock-ten was tracking 480 nm south of Okinawa.

     Remaining a 105-kt tempest for the next day or so, Nock-ten began to
  tire at 24/1800 UTC when the tropical cyclone's continued northwestward
  heading brought the eye within sight of Taiwan, centred about 160 nm to
  the south-southeast of Taipei.  Changing onto a northerly track, Typhoon
  Nock-ten made its closest approach to Taipei between 25/0000 UTC and
  25/0600 UTC as its MSW fell below 100 kts.   At 0600 UTC Nock-ten's
  centre lay just off the northeastern tip of Taiwan.  The storm began to
  significantly weaken as it pulled away from Taiwan and by 25/1200 UTC the
  intensity had dropped to 65 kts, the track recurving onto a north-
  northeasterly heading.  JTWC downgraded Nock-ten to a tropical storm at
  25/1800 UTC and issued their final warning six hours later, locating the
  centre 150 nm northwest of Okinawa.  Nock-ten's forward speed towards the
  east-northeast had accelerated to around 26 kts at this time.  JMA
  released their last bulletin at 26/0600 UTC and followed the extra-
  tropical LOW and its associated gales into the North Pacific. 
 
     At its maximum intensity, Typhoon Nock-ten's wind field was 
  representative of a small to average-sized system.  Typhoon-force winds 
  extended 20 nm in all directions while gales reached out as far as 100 nm
  in all but the southeast quadrant where they lay up to 110 nm from the
  centre.

     JMA estimated a peak intensity of 85 kts (10-min avg) and a minimum 
  CP of 945 mb.  The maximum intensity estimated by PAGASA during the time
  that Typhoon Nock-ten was within their area of responsibility was 80 kts.
  (The system was christened Tonyo by that agency.)  Both HKO and CWB 
  estimated their highest MSW at 85 kts while NMCC assessed Nock-ten as 
  a 90-kt typhoon.


  C. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     Typhoon Nock-ten lashed northern Taiwan with powerful winds and
  driving rain, disrupting international flights and closing financial
  markets, schools and government offices.  Three fatalities occurred as
  a result of flash flooding.


  D. Huang Chunliang Reports
  --------------------------

     Following are the reports compiled and sent by Huang Chunliang of
  Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China.  A special thanks to Chunliang
  for compiling and sending the information.  (To convert wind velocity
  in metres/second (m/s) to knots, divide m/s by 0.51444, or for an
  approximation, simply double the m/s value.)


  (a) Report from China
  ---------------------

  {Part I}. Landfall
  ==================

     According to the CWB warnings, Moderate Typhoon 0424 (Nock-ten) made 
  landfall in northeastern Taiwan between Tou Cheng and Santiaochiao around
  25/0230 UTC with a MSW of 40 m/s and a CP of 950 hPa.  The typhoon then 
  entered the water north of Taiwan from between Tanshui and Fukueichiao 
  around 25/0515 UTC before recurving and accelerating to the northeast.


  {Part II}. Meteorological Obs from Taiwan
  =========================================

  1. Daily Rainfall [23/16-24/16Z] (only Top 5 listed)
  ----------------------------------------------------

  Ranking     Station ID              City/County         Rainfall (mm)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  01          CWB 21C09               Taoyuan County      186.0
  02          CWB C1U50               Ilan County         176.0
  03          CWB C1A66               Taipei County       139.5
  04          CWB C1A64               Taipei County       124.0
  05          WMO 46691 (An Bu)       Taipei City         123.5


  2. Daily Rainfall [24/16-25/16Z] (only Top 5 listed)
  ----------------------------------------------------

  Ranking     Station ID              City/County         Rainfall (mm)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  01          WMO 46691 (An Bu)       Taipei City         322.0
  02          CWB C0A88               Taipei County       312.5
  03          WMO 46693 (Chu-tzu-hu)  Taipei County       280.5
  04          CWB 01A21               Taipei County       280.0
  05          CWB 01A42               Taipei City         266.0
  

  3. Peak Sustained Winds & Gusts
  -------------------------------

     Only those stations that reported peak gusts greater than typhoon
  force are given:
                                       Peak SW           Peak Gust
  Station                           (mps/dir/Date)    (mps/dir/Date)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  Lanyu (WMO46762/59567, Alt 325m)  36.2/ 30/24th     54.4/ 60/24th
  An Bu (WMO46691, Alt 1450m)       ----/---/----     34.9/ 10/25th
  Taipei (WMO46692/58968, Alt 9m)   13.8/ 40/25th     32.8/120/25th
  Keelung (WMO46694, Alt 3m)        23.8/ 60/25th     47.3/ 50/25th
  Ilan (WMO46708, Alt 7m)           25.4/360/25th     44.8/ 20/25th
  Suao (WMO46706, Alt 3m)           29.7/270/25th     55.1/ 90/25th

  Note: Dates given in the above table are local dates.


  {Part III}. Meteorological Obs from Zhejiang
  ============================================

     Significant gust obs included: Dachen Dao--29.9 m/s and
  Shengsi--27.6 m/s.


  (b) Report from Japan
  ---------------------

  1. Yonagunijima, Okinawa (WMO47912, 24.47 N 123.01 E, Alt 30m)
  --------------------------------------------------------------

   Peak sustained wind:  27.7 m/s [25/0000Z]
             Peak gust:  43.5 m/s [25/0032Z]
  Storm total rainfall:  97.5 mm  [23/1600-25/0900Z]

  2. Iriomotejima, Okinawa (WMO47917, 24.39 N 123.75 E, Alt 9m)
  -------------------------------------------------------------

  Storm total rainfall: 111.0 mm  [23/1600-25/0400Z]
  Peak hourly rainfall:  75.0 mm  [25/0108-25/0208Z]

  3. Tanegashima, Kagoshima (WMO47837, 30.73 N 131.00 E, Alt 17m)
  ---------------------------------------------------------------

  24-hr rainfall: 133.5 mm  [26/0000-27/0000Z]

  (Report written by Kevin Boyle with significant contributions by Huang
  Chunliang)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression **
                         1 severe cyclonic storm ++

  ** - this system was not classified as a tropical depression by JTWC

  ++ - JTWC ranked this system as only a minimal tropical storm


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.


               North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
               ------------------------------------------------

     One cyclonic storm (i.e., tropical storm) formed in the North Indian
  Ocean basin during October.  It was not particularly significant from a
  meteorological standpoint, but was notable as the first North Indian
  Ocean cyclone to be officially named after the instigation of a WMO-
  approved list of tropical cyclone names for that basin.  Eight countries
  belonging to the WMO Tropical Cyclone panel for that basin contributed
  eight names each.  The names have been arranged in eight columns of
  eight names, alphabetized by contributing nation in the same manner as
  in the Northwest Pacific basin.   A short report on Severe Cyclonic
  Storm Onil follows.

     An additional system was tracked as a tropical depression by IMD.
  This depression formed over the southeastern Bay of Bengal on 1 October
  and subsequently moved into southeastern India on the 4th.  After making
  landfall, the depression moved northeastward along the Indian coastline,
  reaching Bangladesh.   The system led to some hefty rainfall over several
  Asian nations, and moisture from the depression contributed to some 
  enhanced snowfalls in Tibet.  A short report on this system, compiled 
  and sent by Huang Chunliang, follows the report on Onil.  A big thanks 
  to Chunliang for sending the information.

     One other Arabian Sea system deserves a few words.   A tropical
  disturbance formed around 25 October in the central Arabian Sea at
  a low latitude and moved westward through the 29th, when it began to
  dissipate off the Somalian coastline.  This tropical LOW was a weak,
  non-developing "twin" with TC-02S in the Southern Hemisphere, which
  itself did not develop beyond the strong tropical depression/minimal
  tropical storm stage.  JTWC never assigned the NIO system any more
  than a 'poor' potential for development and estimated the highest
  winds at around 20 kts.  Both systems remained equatorward of the
  10th parallel of latitude in their respective hemispheres.



                       SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ONIL
                           (ARB0402 / TC-03A)
                              1 - 9 October
             ----------------------------------------------

  Onil: contributed by Bangladesh

  A. Storm Origins
  ----------------

     A persistent area of convection developed on 30 September and at
  0700 UTC was located roughly 250 nm southwest of Mumbai (Bombay), India.
  Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery showed a partially-exposed LLCC
  to the east of the deep convection.    Recent microwave imagery had
  revealed that the LLCC was well-organized with low-level cloud lines
  wrapping into the center.  A 200-mb analysis indicated moderate vertical
  shear with moderate diffluence aloft.  The disturbance was assessed as
  having a fair potential for further development.   

     By 1800 UTC the disturbance had moved to the west and was located
  about 300 nm west-southwest of Mumbai.  Convection had diminished
  slightly--a 30/1343 UTC QuikScat pass indicated that the LLCC remained
  well-organized but had weakened slightly.  This temporary downturn
  apparently soon reversed itself--at 0200 UTC on 1 October JTWC issued
  a TCFA for the system, which was then located approximately 330 nm west
  of Mumbai.  Enhanced infrared imagery and a 30/1813 UTC TRMM pass had
  depicted a well-organized LLCC with an estimated MSW of 25-30 kts.  The
  Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had classified the low-pressure
  area as a depression at 0900 UTC on 30 September, and three hours later
  it was upgraded to a deep depression (MSW >= 28 kts).


  B. Synoptic History
  -------------------

     JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Cyclone 03A at 1200 UTC
  on 1 October, locating the system about 290 nm south of Karachi,
  Pakistan, or about 350 nm west-northwest of Mumbai.  The initial warning
  intensity of 30 kts was based on satellite CI estimates of 30 and 35 kts.
  The well-defined LLCC was partially-exposed to the east of the deep
  convection.  The IMD by this time had upgraded the deep depression to
  cyclonic storm status and assigned the name Onil--the first tropical
  cyclone in the North Indian Ocean basin to be officially named from the
  new WMO-approved list of names for that region.   After being named
  Cyclonic Storm Onil tracked northeastward toward the northwestern coast
  of India where intense tropical cyclones struck in June, 1998, and May,
  1999.  JTWC's peak intensity for Onil was 40 kts at 02/1200 UTC (based
  on CI estimates of 35 and 55 kts), but IMD upgraded Onil to severe
  cyclonic storm status, implying winds exceeding storm force (48 kts).
  SAB's CI numbers were 3.5 for almost a 24-hour period on 1 and 2 October.

     However, as Onil approached the Indian coast, much drier air began to
  be pulled into the system from the west and the cyclone's intensity
  began to drop sharply.  JTWC's final warning on the system, at 03/0000
  UTC, indicated that Onil had made landfall near Porbandar, India, around
  02/2000 UTC.   However, it later became apparent that Onil's center never
  actually moved inland.    After accelerating northeastward for over
  24 hours, the LLCC seemed to "stop on a dime" and halted right at the
  coast.  It subsequently began to drift southwestward and had weakened
  into a low-pressure area by late on the 3rd (per IMD).  The remnant LOW
  meandered around in the eastern Arabian Sea for several days, finally
  drifting inland about 190 nm northwest of Mumbai by the 10th.


  C. Meteorological Observations
  ------------------------------

     Huang Chunliang sent me some rainfall observations from Pakistan.
  The following are 36-hour totals from 2-3 October (exact times unknown)
  measured in Sindh Province:

     Thatta          145 mm
     Mirpur Khas     126 mm
     Hyderabad        99 mm
     Keti Bunder      90 mm

     In India there were no 24-hourly totals exceeding 100 mm.


  D. Damage and Casualties
  ------------------------

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe
  Cyclonic Storm Onil.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                         TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                           (NRL Invest 96B)
                            2 - 8 October
               ---------------------------------------

  A. Synoptic History
  ===================

     Huang Chunliang sent me a series of reports on this system which was
  classified as a depression by IMD but not by JTWC.  The following para-
  graph is quoted from the INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ALL INDIA WEEKLY
  WEATHER REPORTS:

     "A well-marked low-pressure area formed over southeast Bay of Bengal
  on 1st October.  It concentrated into a depression on 2nd over the same
  area.  It moved northwestwards and lay over west-central Bay of Bengal
  on 3rd.  It crossed north Andhra coast close to Kalingapatnam on 4th
  evening and rapidly weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area.  It
  moved over to central parts of Orissa on 6th.  The low-pressure area
  over Gangetic West Bengal re-intensified into a depression on 7th morning
  close to Bankura in West Bengal.  The system moved east-northeastwards
  and lay centred over Bangladesh on the morning of 8th.    It rapidly
  weakened into a low-pressure area on the same evening.  On 9th it was
  seen as an extended low-pressure area over northeastern states and
  neighbourhood.  It became unimportant on 10th."

     According to the IMD warnings, the depression (Oct 2-8, 2004) crossed
  north Andhra coast near Kalingapatnam around 04/1030 UTC with a MSW of
  25 knots.


  B. India Rainfall Obs (only 24-hr amounts >= 100 mm listed)
  ===========================================================

  ALAPPUZHA, Kerala                   140 mm [02/03-03/03Z]
  KANNUR, Kerala                      109 mm [02/03-03/03Z]
  KOCHI AP, Kerala                    192 mm [02/03-03/03Z]
  KOZHIKODE, Kerala                   109 mm [02/03-03/03Z]
  KAKINADA, Andhra Pradesh            112 mm [03/03-04/03Z]
  AGUMBE, Karnataka                   147 mm [03/03-04/03Z]
  SHIRALI, Karnataka                  116 mm [04/03-05/03Z]
  GUWAHATI, Assam                     141 mm [06/03-07/03Z]
  GUWAHATI, Assam                     118 mm [07/03-08/03Z]
  TEZPUR, Assam                       110 mm [07/03-08/03Z]
  KOLKATA (ALIPUR), West Bengal       134 mm [06/03-07/03Z]
  KOLKATA (DUMDUM), West Bengal       107 mm [06/03-07/03Z]
  PANAGARH, West Bengal               102 mm [06/03-07/03Z]
  SHILLONG, Meghalaya                 203 mm [06/03-07/03Z]
  SHILLONG, Meghalaya                 262 mm [07/03-08/03Z]


  C. Rainfall Obs from Sri Lanka (only 24-hr amounts >= 100 mm listed)
  ====================================================================

  GALLE (06.03N 80.22E)                 117.2 mm [01/06-02/06Z]


  D. Rainfall Obs from Bangladesh (only 24-hr amounts >= 100 mm listed)
  =====================================================================

  RANGPUR (25.73N 89.23E)               151.2 mm [05/18-06/18Z]
  RANGPUR (25.73N 89.23E)               171.8 mm [06/00-07/00Z]
  RANGPUR (25.73N 89.23E)               220.6 mm [06/06-07/06Z]
  RANGPUR (25.73N 89.23E)               227.2 mm [07/00-08/00Z]
  RANGPUR (25.73N 89.23E)               100.6 mm [07/12-08/12Z]
  BOGRA (24.85N 89.37E)                 157.2 mm [06/12-07/12Z]
  BOGRA (24.85N 89.37E)                 151.2 mm [07/00-08/00Z]
  DHAKA (23.77N 90.38E)                 112.5 mm [07/00-08/00Z]
  SYLHET (24.90N 91.88E)                115.6 mm [07/12-08/12Z]


  E. Rainfall Obs from Nepal (only 24-hr amounts >= 50 mm listed)
  ===============================================================

  KATHMANDU AIRPORT (27.70N 85.37E)      51.3 mm [06/12-07/12Z]


  F. Report from China
  ====================

     Che-Ku County (WMO 55690, 27.98N 91.95E, Alt 4280m), Tibet Autonomous
  Region, reported a daily SNOWFALL amount of 60.0 mm [07/00-08/00Z],
  which ranked itself the Top 1 rainfall/snowfall in China on the 7th and
  turned out to be the new record of October daily rainfall/snowfall for
  this station, the former one being 49.5 mm reported on Oct 29, 1996.  The
  torrential SNOW persisted on the 8th, on which day the station reported
  32.6 mm [08/00-09/00Z].  It should be noted that 52 mm out of the 48-hr
  accumulation of 93 mm was recorded during the 12-hr period ending at
  08/06Z.  As a result, the county lost 340,000 kilograms of foodstuff,
  230,000 kilograms of forage grass and 263 livestock in the SNOWSTORM.

  (Report by Huang Chunliang)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression **

  ** - classified as a minimal tropical storm by JTWC


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the sub-regional warning centres on Mauritius and Madagascar with
  longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their respective
  areas of warning responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only advises
  these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  References
  to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


             Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for October
             ----------------------------------------------------

     Warnings were issued by both MFR and JTWC on one tropical cyclonic
  system in the Southwest Indian Ocean during October.  MFR classified
  the system as 30-kt tropical depression while JTWC treated it as a
  minimal tropical storm (1-min avg).    A short report on Tropical
  Depression 02 (TC-02S) follows.  The system moved westward at a low
  latitude, passing north of Madagascar and eventually moving into
  Tanzania near Dar es Salaam.



                           TROPICAL DEPRESSION
                            (MFR-02 / TC-02S)
                             25 - 25 October
                 ---------------------------------------

     Around 1800 UTC on 22 October an area of convection was located about
  450 nm west of Diego Garcia.  Animated multi-spectral imagery indicated
  disorganized and sporadic convection while a recent QuikScat pass showed
  a broad LLCC.  An upper-level analysis indicated low to moderate vertical
  shear and weak diffluence aloft.  Over the next two days the system
  meandered around in the general area with little change in organization.
  Satellite imagery on the 24th revealed a partially-exposed LLCC located
  to the northeast of the deep convection--maximum winds were estimated
  at around 15-20 kts.  Very early on the 25th (UTC) animated multi-
  spectral imagery revealed increasing organization of the deep convection.
  An upper-level analysis indicated that the system was located in a
  favorable environment beneath the subtropical ridge axis.  At 25/0600
  UTC MFR issued the first bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 02, placing the
  center approximately 675 nm west of Diego Garcia with winds of 25 kts.
  The system continued moving westward, gradually increasing in strength.
  MFR upgraded the disturbance to tropical depression status at 26/0000
  UTC, elevating the MSW to 30 kts, but this was lowered back to 25 kts
  six hours later as satellite imagery revealed that the deep convection
  had become cyclic around the partially-exposed LLCC.

     Later on the 26th the system began to show signs of intensification
  once more.  JTWC issued a TCFA at 26/1900 UTC with the center located
  about 340 nm northeast of Madagascar.  Enhanced infrared satellite
  imagery revealed a compact LLCC with moderate diffluence aloft.  MFR
  upgraded the disturbance back to tropical depression status with 30-kt
  winds (10-min avg) at 27/0000 UTC when the center was located about
  265 nm northeast of the northern tip of Madagascar.  Over the next
  couple of days the depression moved westward on a gently undulating
  track which took it approximately 200 nm north of Madagascar's northern
  tip around 1200 UTC on the 27th.   Shear prevented the system from
  becoming vertically stacked enough to strengthen.  On the 28th it began
  to weaken and was downgraded to a 25-kt disturbance at 1800 UTC.
  Multi-spectral satellite imagery and a 28/0836 UTC TRMM pass indicated
  that the LLCC was exposed to the northwest of the deep convection.  The
  weak LOW limped ashore near Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, around 0600 UTC
  on 29 October and quickly dissipated, although it did generate heavy
  rainfall over portions of Tanzania.

     JTWC classified TC-02S as a 35-kt tropical storm (1-min avg) on the
  27th and 28th.  Satellite CI estimates at 28/1200 UTC ranged from 35
  to 45 kts.  Earlier, on 26 October, a 26/1418 UTC QuikScat pass
  indicated winds of 35-40 kts, so it seems likely that this system was
  a minimal tropical storm from the standpoint of the maximum 1-min avg
  sustained wind.

     No damage or casualties have been attributed to this system.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for October:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for October:  1 tropical depression


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
  issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
  waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
  waters south of latitude 25S).  References to sustained winds imply
  a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
  centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings
  are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values included in the tracks file.    Additionally, information
  describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
  features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
  warnings.


                South Pacific Tropical Activity for October
                -------------------------------------------

     The first tropical depression of the 2004-2005 South Pacific tropical
  cyclone season formed in late October.  The weak LOW was designated
  Tropical Depression 01F by the Nadi TCWC at 2100 UTC on 28 October when
  it was centered roughly 225 nm northeast of Honiara on Guadalcanal in
  the Solomon Islands.  Over the next few days the system drifted generally
  westward, passing just north of Guadalcanal on the 30th.  The final
  reference to TD-01F by Nadi was at 30/1800 UTC when it was located about
  65 nm west-northwest of Honiara, or just inside Brisbane's AOR.  The LOW
  continued to drift westward into the early days of November, and although
  it became slightly better organized, it never was able to develop into a
  tropical cyclone.   The Brisbane TCWC mentioned the LOW in its daily
  STWOs for several days but gave no coordinates.  The track for this
  system in the accompanying tracks file contains only the portion of its
  history while in Fiji's AOR.

  *************************************************************************

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
  ---------------------------------------

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories
  -----------------------

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery
  ---------------------

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

  *************************************************************************

                              EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
  Landsea, and John Diebolt):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
    

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
                China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang  (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
                    China Sea)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  Simon Clarke  (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
  E-mail:  [email protected]

  [email protected]********
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Document: summ0410.htm
Updated: 17th May, 2005

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