[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CLARE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CLARE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060107 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/072021ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 122.4E TO 17.5S 119.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM�
AGERY AT 071730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 122.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.7S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE-
RY INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060108 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072021ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.8S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.0S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.4S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.1S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 120.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S IS BENE-
FITING FROM A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THAT
INCLUDES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD WESTWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERCEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072021ZJAN2006 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072030 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIF-
ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080600Z AND 081200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.5S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.8S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.0S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE BEFORE NEARING THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WESTWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060108 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.3S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.8S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.5S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WESTWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS BUT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060108 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 118.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 118.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.6S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.2S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.0S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.5S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060109 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.7S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.3S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.9S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL
LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060109 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.9S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.3S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.3S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.4S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 12 FOLLOWED
BY RAPID WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z,
092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060109 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.6S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.0S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.4S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.9S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.5S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.2S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST OF BARROW ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER INLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 116.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 116.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.9S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 116.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.1S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 116.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 05S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND AND MOVES INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060110 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CLARE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.1S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.2S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 116.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (CLARE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A
DECREASE IN THE CORE CONVECTION, AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE EQUATOR-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WEAKENING. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 05S
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
|
Document: clare.htm
Updated: 11th January 2006 |
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