[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DARYL
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DARYL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060118 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/181951ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 123.3E TO 17.2S 120.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 123.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S
122.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 123.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST
OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WESTWARD OFF SHORE ALTHOUGH MORE RECENT POSITION INFORMATION INDICATES
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED POSITION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT
DEPICT ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LARGE SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA THAT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE WEST AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A
SURFACE OBSERVATION AT ADELE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REPORTS WINDS AT 43 KTS. AT MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060119 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951Z JAN 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.1S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.8S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 122.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08s (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
WEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GREATER STEERING
INFLUENCE IS PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
TURN MORE POLEWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE PROVIDED BY A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 181951ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060119 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.3S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.1S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 121.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STEERING
FLOW IS RATHER WEAK, AS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LARGE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AUSTRALIA. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND SUSTAINED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z
AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.5S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.2S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 120.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRENGTHENING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 191701Z TRMM PASS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST LINE AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO LEARMONTH. THE
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE HOWEVER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
IT WILL STRENGTHEN AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060120 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 120.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 120.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.8S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.9S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 120.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CORE CONVECTION, HOWEVER WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 200012Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE STORM COLUMN, AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS FURTHEST FROM LAND. BETWEEN TAUS 24
AND 36, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
ONCE TC 08S TRACKS PAST LEARMONTH, IT WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 120.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 120.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.8S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.9S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 120.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OBSERVED SEVERAL
HOURS AGO. A 200112Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT MUCH OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
VERIFIES THAT TC 08S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 08S WILL MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
72 HOURS. MOREOVER, AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE
STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE
COASTLINE AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.0S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 119.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EARLIER ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 08S REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY
SLOW BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. DESPITE A RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION, TC 08S WILL REMAIN
IN AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR SHOULD
INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE STORM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT PARALLELS THE COASTLINE AND
INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.5S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.5S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.3S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
AND LAND-BASED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION WHICH
IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ATTRIBUTED TO A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS OVERCOMING
THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT,
THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD EAST INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE AXIS
OF THIS RIDGE NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060121 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.2S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.0S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.5S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 115.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
AND LAND-BASED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTH-
WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WILL FILL AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WEAKNESS CREATED IN THE MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO FILL AND
KEEP TC 08S ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. BY TAU 72, A SECOND TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
A WEAKNESS TO FORM IN THE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND RESULT IN A TURN TO
THE SOUTH FOR THE TC. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS POLEWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.2S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.0S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.7S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.5S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 115.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING
POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060121 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 114.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 114.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.1S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.0S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.3S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 114.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DECREASE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 211028Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100z, 220300Z,
220900z AND 221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.4S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.1S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.8S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.7S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 115.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED EAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION. THE CENTER
WAS RELOCATED TO ACCURATELY DEPICT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTION OF
A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON ENHANCE INFRARED SATELLITE
FIXES. CURRENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO DECREASE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 211647Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LLCC IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION BY APPROXIMATELY 50 NM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060122 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.8S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.6S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.8S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.3S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN POLEWARD NEAR TAU 48 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CREATED BY A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.7S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.3S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.6S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMA-
GERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND
230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060122 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.7S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.5S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BOTH MICRO-
WAVE AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 24. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 18 FEET.//
|
Document: daryl.htm
Updated: 28th January 2006 |
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