[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DIWA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DIWA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/032051ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 57.4E TO 19.4S 55.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 032051Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 57.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 16.4S 57.2E HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 030206Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALSO LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN BOTH POLE-
WARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060304 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING/0420152ZMAR2006//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051Z MAR 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 56.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 56.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.3S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 56.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
700 MB RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE GRADUAL AS OUTFLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HINDERED
BY A SECOND LOW TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 032051Z
MAR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 032100 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060304 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.2S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.2S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.8S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 55.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 700 MB
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060304 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.8S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-OUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INITIAL SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERN
TURN AS THE RIDGE TRANSITS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WEAK DUE TO POOR OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060305 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.7S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.5S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.9S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 53.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST. TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS
AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR
CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP TIME.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060305 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.4S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.4S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND
062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060306 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.4S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.3S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.3S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 51.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST.
TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.1S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.5S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 16S HAS CRESTED THE RIDGE AXIS AND
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 25.3S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.7S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD STORM OUTFLOW WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AN INITIAL
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS THE STORM FIRST ENCOUNTERS THIS BAND OF WESTERLIES.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND
080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 54.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 54.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.0S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 33.4S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SPEED OF MOVEMENT AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 16S WILL TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND
082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060308 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.1S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 33.0S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS TC 16S ACCELERATES
SOUTHEASTWARD, APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF 30
DEGREES SOUTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
STORM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN
RECENT INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DUE
TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 24-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 29.7S 58.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 58.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5S 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 16S IS IN THE PROCESS OF BE-
COMING EXTRATROPICAL AS EVIDENT BY A BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD POLEWARD
OF THE SYSTEM AND SIGNS OF COLD AIR WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 12
FEET.//
|
Document: diwa.htm
Updated: 9th March 2006 |
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