[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary July 2006
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary July 2006 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JULY, 2006
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
JULY HIGHLIGHTS
--> Second Atlantic storm of season flirts with East Coast
--> Eastern North Pacific active with two major hurricanes
--> Western North Pacific active with all storms making landfall
--> Very rare Bay of Bengal July tropical storm forms
*************************************************************************
!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EXTRA FEATURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ADDENDUM TO JUNE SUMMARY
East Coast LOW of 27 June
-------------------------
A. Synoptic History
-------------------
The following is a brief synopsis of an interesting non-frontal LOW
which formed off the U. S. East Coast in late June and made landfall
in North Carolina. It was my intention to include a write-up for this
system in the June summary, but I inadvertently omitted it and someone
called it to my attention.
On 19 June the Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by TPC/NHC began to
mention an area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Bahamas,
Florida Straits and extending eastward over the Atlantic for several
hundred miles. This area persisted over the next several days, and
on the afternoon of 21 June a concentrated area of showers and thunder-
storms formed about 220 nm northeast of the northern Bahamas. Upper-
level winds, however, were unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.
This disturbed weather, which resulted from the interaction of a surface
trough and an upper-level LOW, continued in the area and by late on the
22nd a broad surface circulation appeared to be forming. By the next
morning the circulation had become better organized and upper-level winds
had become more favorable for further strengthening. The 1130 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook noted that the possibility existed for a
tropical or subtropical depression to form during the next day or so.
The broad LOW drifted west-northwestward with little change in
organization and had moved inland over the Florida Peninsula by the
afternoon of 25 June. By the morning of the 26th the broad LOW was
moving northward and convective activity had become more concentrated
over the northwestern Bahamas and off the eastern coast of Florida.
Grand Bahama reported a sustained wind of 29 kts, gusting to 37 kts,
and there were indications that a small low-pressure area might form
off Florida's east coast and move northward over the Gulf Stream toward
the Carolinas. A Special Tropical Disturbance Statement (STDS) was
issued at 0730 AM EDT on 27 June, noting that satellite and radar
information indicated that the anticipated small LOW appeared to be
forming about 120 nm south of Cape Fear, North Carolina, and was moving
north-northeastward at 13-17 kts.
A second STDS was issued around 1430 EDT and reported that an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft had investigated the system and found that
the small LOW was located about 30 nm southwest of Cape Lookout, North
Carolina. A small area of tropical storm-force winds was occurring
on its east side, but it was (at the time) determined that the system
did not have a closed circulation. During the afternoon the LOW moved
inland near Morehead City and convection began to weaken and become
less organized; however, winds to gale force were being felt over
portions of the Outer Banks and adjacent waters. The small LOW
subsequently moved over southeastern Virginia and across Chesapeake
Bay, where gale-force winds were reported. The system continued to
accelerate to the northeast, being located over southwestern New Jersey
early on the 28th. Around midday the LOW was located over southern New
England, and by late afternoon had merged with a frontal zone and was
moving over the Canadian Maritimes.
B. Additional Discussion
------------------------
A question that has been raised is "Why wasn't this system named as
a tropical storm?" I have learned from NHC that they almost did start
advisories on the system. Prior to landfall, the reason that the system
was not upgraded was that the reconnaissance aircraft did not find a
closed surface circulation. Central convection at the time was
sufficient to warrant classification as a tropical cyclone, and as noted
above, a small area of gale-force winds was present, but since no surface
circulation was in evidence, the system did not meet that all important
criterion of a tropical cyclone.
After the system had made landfall, regular surface observations did
indicate a closed circulation with some gale-force winds still present,
at least for a brief time, but at that point convection was on the
wane and it did not have sufficient organized deep convection to be a
bona fide tropical cyclone.
The word from NHC is that there is nothing further to be learned about
this system and that it will not be added posthumously to the 2006 roster
of tropical or subtropical storms. However, in the author's humble
opinion, the question should be raised, "Did the closed circulation then
develop after landfall when deep convection was on the decrease?"
Experience has shown that almost all tropical systems begin to weaken
and lose organization immediately after moving inland. However, there
are some exceptions. Tropical Storm Beryl of 1988 and Tropical Storm
Bertha of 2002 both formed and intensified to tropical storm intensity
with their respective centers inland over swampy southeastern Louisiana.
Perhaps that happened in this case, although what seems more likely is
that the circulation closed off just before landfall and after the
reconnaissance plane had left the area, or else for some reason the
reconnaissance crew was unable to detect the circulation. However, this
likely cannot be proven, so as things stand now, this system will be
given no further consideration as a possible after-the-fact tropical or
or subtropical storm. (Thanks to James Franklin of NHC for supplying
some of the above information regarding this system.)
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for July: 1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc. Some
additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
TPC/NHC's website. All references to sustained winds imply a
1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.
Atlantic Tropical Activity for July
-----------------------------------
Over the period 1950-2005, the Atlantic basin in July has produced
the following averages:
NS - 0.9 NSD - 2.9
H - 0.4 HD - 0.8
IH - 0.1 IHD - 0.1
July of 2006 came close to the average with 1 NS which generated 2.8 NSD.
However, no hurricane formed during the month. This slightly less than
average July followed on the heels of the most active month of July ever
seen in the Atlantic basin. During the previous July 5 NS developed with
3 reaching hurricane intensity--2 of those became IHs with Emily becoming
the first-ever recorded July Category 5 hurricane. The July, 2005,
cyclones produced 25.5 NSD, 11.3 HD, and 6.3 IHD. The situation was
reversed in the Eastern North Pacific where July of 2005 was extremely
quiet and July of 2006 was well above average. A short report on this
year's Tropical Storm Beryl follows.
Another system perhaps worthy of mentioning was an area of disturbed
weather which formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late in the
month in association with a slow-moving tropical wave. By the morning
of the 24th a weak surface low pressure system was located just east of
La Pesca, Mexico, and moving northward at less than 10 kts. Showers and
thunderstorm activity had increased over much of the western Gulf of
Mexico and some NOAA buoys in the Bay of Campeche had recorded wind gusts
of 35-45 kts during the morning. Over the next day or so the LOW drifted
northward along the Mexican coastline accompanied by thunderstorms and
strong gusty winds in squalls, but upper-level conditions were not very
favorable for tropical cyclone development. By the 25th the system was
inland over southern Texas, still moving northward, bringing locally
heavy rainfall to portions of that state. Upper-level winds had become
somewhat more conducive to development, but the LOW continued moving
further inland and weakened.
Finally, at the end of the month a westward moving tropical wave
approaching the Antilles became much better organized and advisories
were initiated on Tropical Depression 03 at 0300 UTC on 1 August (during
the evening of 31 July local time). This system subsequently
strengthened into Tropical Storm Chris the next day. The report on
Chris will be included in the August summary.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL
(TC-02)
18 - 23 July
----------------------------------------
July's lone Atlantic tropical cyclone developed in a surface trough
associated with a decaying stationary frontal zone off the Southeastern
U. S. coast. Two areas of low pressure developed along the front, one
to the southeast of Cape Cod and the other south of the Cape Hatteras
area. The southernmost one began to show increased organization and
advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression 02 at 1500 UTC on
18 July, placing the center approximately 190 nm south-southeast of
Cape Hatteras. Shortly before 2045 UTC reconnaissance aircraft found
a FLW of 46-47 kts in the southeastern quadrant along with a CP of
1007 mb, so the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl in
a special update issued just after the regular 2100 UTC advisory
package had been disseminated.
Beryl moved slowly northward, passing about 100 nm east of Cape
Hatteras on the 19th. A reconnaissance aircraft around 19/2030 UTC
found an 850-mb FLW of 57 kts in the southwestern quadrant with a
surface pressure of 1002 mb. Also, a dropsonde in the northwestern
quadrant reported a surface wind of 49 kts. Based on this data and
the improving structure in radar and satellite imagery, Beryl's MSW
was bumped up to its peak of 50 kts. The cyclone at this time was
located about 115 nm northeast of Cape Hatteras, moving north at 7 kts.
A gradual turn to the north-northeast was forecast, and by the 20th
Beryl was moving in this direction with an increasing northeasterly
heading.
Weakening slightly on the 21st, Beryl passed over Nantucket Island
where gusts to tropical storm force were reported. The cyclone continued
to accelerate northeastward and lost its tropical characteristics over
western Nova Scotia late on 21 July. The extratropical remnant continued
to speed east-northeastward across northern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
and into the North Atlantic. By 1800 UTC on 23 July it had weakened to
a 25-kt LOW far to the east of Newfoundland. The peak wind gust reported
on Nantucket was 38 kts with the only damage being downed telephone poles
and fallen branches. There were also some power outages reported in the
Halifax area.
The excellent online Wikipedia report, from which some of the above
information was taken, may be accessed at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Beryl_%282006%29>
The track of Beryl in tabular format may be found at the following
link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/A/BT/2006-02L-BT.txt>
Unfortunately, John Diebolt still has not gotten the problem with
his database fixed, so the track graphic for Beryl is not yet available.
When it becomes so, I will post the link in a future summary.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for July: 2 tropical depressions **
1 tropical storm
1 hurricane
2 major hurricanes
** - systems became tropical storms in August
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for July
--------------------------------------------
Over the period 1971-2005, the Northeast Pacific basin in July has
produced the following averages:
NS - 3.7 NSD - 15.6
H - 1.9 HD - 6.8
IH - 1.1 IHD - 2.1
Following a very quiet July of 2005 when only 2 minor tropical storms
developed, July of 2006 was well above average with 4 NS, 3 hurricanes
and 2 major hurricanes. These cyclones produced a combined 22.3 NSD,
11.5 HD, and 4.5 IHD. Hurricane Daniel was the first Category 4 or
higher hurricane to form in July since Category 5 Hurricane Elida in
July, 2002. The three hurricanes all pursued tracks away from the
Mexican mainland, but at the end of the month Tropical Storm Emilia
moved northward and brushed the tip of Baja California. Short
reports on all the named systems follow. Unfortunately, John Diebolt
still is having problems with his database of track graphics so those
are not yet available. When the problem is corrected and the track
graphics can be created, I will include the links in a future summary.
The online Wikipedia reports for the Eastern Pacific cyclones may
be accessed at the following URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_hurricane_season>
A tropical disturbance well to the southwest of Baja California began
to show signs of increased organization late in the month and advisories
were initiated on Tropical Depression 07E at 2100 UTC on 31 July. At
0300 UTC the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio. At the
same time another disturbance was organizing to the south of Manzanillo
and was classified as Tropical Depression 08E at 0300 UTC on 1 August,
or late on 31 July local time. This system was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Gilma later on 1 August. Reports on both Fabio and Gilma will be
included in the August summary.
HURRICANE BUD
(TC-03E)
11 - 15 July
---------------------------------
Hurricane Bud developed from a tropical wave which had emerged off
the coast of West Africa on 27 June. The wave traveled across the
Atlantic and Caribbean, reaching the Eastern Pacific by 7 July. An area
of low pressure formed along the wave on 9 July approximately 520 nm
south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Associated convection gradually became
better organized and a tropical depression had formed by 0000 UTC on
11 July about 600 nm south of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula. TD-03E was upgraded to Tropical Storm
Bud six hours later, but northerly shear initially hampered development
of the cyclone. The shear, however, diminished considerably on the 11th
and Bud rapidly intensified and was upgraded to the season's first
hurricane in a special advisory issued at 11/2230 UTC.
Hurricane Bud continued moving west-northwestward as it steadily
intensified on 12 July. The cyclone reached its estimated peak
intensity of 110 kts with an attendant CP of 953 mb at 0600 UTC
on 13 July, at which time it was centered approximately 650 nm west-
southwest of Cabo San Lucas. After peaking in intensity Bud began to
encounter cooler waters and stable air which led to steady weakening.
The storm dropped below hurricane intensity early on 14 July, and by
late in the day had lost most of its deep convection. Bud was down-
graded to a tropical depression at 15/0600 UTC, and the final advisory
was issued at 2100 UTC that day, placing the weak remnant LOW about
1350 nm west of Cabo San Lucas.
The track of Hurricane Bud in tabular format may be accessed at the
following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/E/BT/2006-03E-BT.txt>
HURRICANE CARLOTTA
(TC-04E)
12 - 17 July
--------------------------------------
Hurricane Carlotta operated more or less simultaneously with Hurricane
Bud, following a very similar west-northwestward track but forming more
to the east and tracking a little further north that did Bud. The third
named storm of the Eastern Pacific season formed from a tropical wave
that entered the basin on 9 July. Thunderstorm activity gradually became
better organized over the next couple of days and a tropical depression
formed early on 12 July about 285 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico. Moving west-northwestward, TD-04E quickly intensified into a
tropical storm and was named Carlotta. Carlotta continued to intensify,
becoming a hurricane at 13/0600 UTC about 350 nm south of the southern
tip of Baja California. The first advisory upgrading Carlotta to
hurricane status estimated the MSW at 75 kts--the peak for the cyclone's
history. The estimated minimum CP for Carlotta was 981 mb.
Carlotta temporarily weakened back to tropical storm status at 1800
UTC on the 14th as its circulation began to spread over cooler waters
to the northwest of Socorro Island. No sooner had the cyclone been
downgraded than it began to make an unexpected comeback: deep convection
increased in both coverage and intensity near the center, and a cloud-
filled eye developed. Therefore, Carlotta was re-upgraded to hurricane
status at 15/0000 UTC. However, later that day a second and final
weakening trend began as the storm moved over increasingly cooler SSTs.
Carlotta was downgraded to a tropical storm at 15/1800 UTC, and the
system had weakened to a tropical depression by 1200 UTC on 16 July while
located about 565 nm west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. By early on the
17th it had weakened into a non-convective remnant LOW.
The track of Hurricane Carlotta in tabular format may be accessed at
the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/E/BT/2006-04E-BT.txt>
HURRICANE DANIEL
(TC-05E)
17 - 26 July
------------------------------------
Peaking at 130 kts, major Hurricane Daniel was the strongest hurricane
to traverse Eastern Pacific waters since Hurricane Javier in September,
2004. The precursor wave from which Daniel developed left the West
Coast of Africa on 30 June, entering the Eastern North Pacific on
12 July. By 15 July the disturbance was showing signs of organization
and a tropical depression had formed by 0000 UTC on 17 July about 630 nm
south of Cabo San Lucas. TD-05E continued moving westward in deep-layer
easterly flow and became Tropical Storm Daniel later that day. The
cyclone was upgraded to hurricane status at 1800 UTC on the 18th while
centered approximately 775 nm south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Daniel
turned west-northwestward on the 20th and became the season's second
major hurricane at 20/0600 UTC as winds increased to 100 kts. Peak
intensity of 130 kts was reached at 0000 UTC on 22 July with the storm
then located approximately 1050 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. The estimated minimum CP was 933 mb.
The cyclone turned westward on the 22nd, then resumed a west-
northwesterly motion the next day which brought it over cooler SSTs.
Daniel's intensity gradually weakened over the next two days, and it
crossed longitude 140W and entered the Central Pacific basin around
1200 UTC on 24 July with the MSW estimated at 85 kts. At this time
warning responsibility was shifted to the CPHC in Honolulu. As Daniel
was moving over 25C waters, its intensity continued to decline and the
cyclone was downgraded to a 55-kt tropical storm at 25/0600 UTC.
Interestingly, at the time it was felt that since shear was light and
the storm would reach 26C SSTs again in a couple of days, Daniel might
very well approach the Big Island as a strong tropical storm. However,
the system ran into some cooler, drier air which really did a number on
the convection. By late on the 25th deep convection had all but
vanished and Daniel was downgraded to a tropical depression at 26/0000
UTC. The residual depression continued to move slowly westward but
showed no signs of re-intensification, so the final advisory was issued
at 2100 UTC on 26 July, placing the center about 675 nm east-southeast
of Hilo, Hawaii.
The track of Hurricane Daniel in tabular format may be accessed at
the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/E/BT/2006-05E-BT.txt>
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA
(TC-06E)
21 - 28 July
-----------------------------------------
The origins of July's fourth tropical cyclone are a little obscure.
Based on the TPC/NHC monthly summary for July and the Tropical Weather
Outlooks, there is no clear connection with a tropical wave from the
Caribbean side of Central America. The first mention of the pre-Emilia
disturbance was in a Tropical Weather Outlook at 1700 UTC on 16 July.
An area of disturbed weather was located about 385 nm south-southeast of
Acapulco and was showing some signs of organization. A small area of
low pressure formed within the disturbance and drifted very slowly
westward, then north-northwestward over the next several days. All
through this period the Tropical Weather Outlooks kept hinting that the
system was on the verge of developing into a tropical depression, but
that didn't happen until around 1200 UTC on 21 July when Tropical
Depression 06E was first identified about 350 nm south of Acapulco. The
system slowly strengthened, becoming Tropical Storm Emilia at 0600 UTC
on 22 July while centered about 350 nm south of Manzanillo. Over the
next several days Emilia followed a general northwesterly track but with
some significant wobbles or zigzags.
The cyclone strengthened, reaching an initial peak intensity of 60 kts
on the 23rd while centered approximately 200 nm west-southwest of
Manzanillo. However, the next day the storm encountered unfavorable
vertical shear and had weakened to 45 kts by the 25th. As Emilia
continued plodding northwestward, the inhibiting shear diminished
significantly and Emilia quickly re-intensified, reaching an intensity
of 60 kts (with an attendant CP of 989 mb) for the second time at
26/0600 UTC. The storm at this juncture was located about 125 nm west-
northwest of Cabo San Lucas, and the storm subsequently brushed portions
of the southern and western Baja California coastline, causing tropical
storm conditions and locally heavy rainfall in many areas. Late on the
26th Emilia reached colder SSTs and began to weaken rapidly, becoming
a tropical depression early on 27 July. The system then turned west-
ward and degenerated into a non-convective remnant low pressure area
the next day about 250 nm west of Punta Eugenia. The remnant LOW
continued slowly westward while dissipating.
No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Storm
Emilia have been received.
The track of Tropical Storm Emilia in tabular format may be accessed
at the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/E/BT/2006-06E-BT.txt>
(All Northeast Pacific basin reports written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for July: 2 tropical depressions **
1 tropical storm ++
1 typhoon
1 super typhoon
** - one depression formed on final day of month and became typhoon in
August / another was weak and classified as a tropical depression
by JMA only
++ - classified as a typhoon by PAGASA
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). A very special thanks to Michael for the
assistance he so reliably provides.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for July
--------------------------------------------
In contrast to the month of June, which was very quiet in the Western
North Pacific with only one tropical storm, the month of July was quite
active with one strong tropical storm, two typhoons, and one super
typhoon. In fact, Tropical Storm Bilis/Florita was upgraded to typhoon
status by PAGASA. All the storms made landfall. Former Super Typhoon
Ewiniar made landfall in South Korea as a tropical storm, while Bilis,
Kaemi and Prapiroon all made landfall in mainland China with Bilis and
Kaemi striking the island of Taiwan also. All three of the Chinese
tropical cyclones were deadly with Bilis responsible for several hundred
fatalities. Reports follow on the named cyclones, all authored by Kevin
Boyle.
In addition to the named storms, one additional system was treated as
a relatively weak tropical depression by JMA, and also by the China
Meteorological Administration. This system formed in the northwestern
South China Sea south of Hainan Dao on 3 July and moved northward,
crossing the island and entering the Gulf of Tonkin, finally making
a second landfall near the Chinese/Vietnamese border. Also, the
Guangdong Regional Meteorological Centre identified a weak tropical
depression in the South China Sea on 21 July. This system remained weak
and had dissipated by the following day. No tracks were included for
these systems in the accompanying cyclone tracks file. Some additional
information on these two weak depressions may be found at the following
link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season#CMA_Tropical_Depression_03>
SUPER TYPHOON EWINIAR
(TC-04W / TY 0306 / ESTER)
29 June - 12 July
----------------------------------------------
Ewiniar: contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, is the name
of a Chuuk traditional storm god
A. Introduction
---------------
The fourth significant tropical cyclone of 2006 in the NW Pacific
basin, Ewiniar became the second super typhoon of the year, albeit for
only six hours. Forming from a monsoon trough several hundred miles
southeast of the Philippine Islands, Ewiniar followed a long, north-
oriented trajectory for over a week, finally making landfall over South
Korea on 10 July.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
As Tropical Storm Jelawat (TC-03W) was poised to move inland over
southern China on 28 June, an area of convection persisted approximately
360 nm southeast of Yap. It was first mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 1730
UTC 28 June. The disturbance quickly developed, and at 29/0600 UTC, a
TCFA was issued. The first warning followed at 29/1800 UTC, placing the
newly-formed Tropical Depression 04W approximately 200 nm south of Yap.
TD-04W drifted slowly west-northwestward on 30 August and became a
tropical storm at 30/1800 UTC. At the same time, JMA raised their 10-min
avg MSW to 35 kts and assigned the name Ewiniar. Tropical Storm Ewiniar
rapidly strengthened late on 30 June, but the rate of intensification
slowed dramatically the next day. The system remained a tropical storm
until 03/0000 UTC when it was finally upgraded to a typhoon while passing
280 nm south of Yap.
Typhoon Ewiniar steadily intensified while tracking northwestwards
along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, reaching its
maximum intensity of 130 kts at 0000 UTC 5 July while centred
approximately 530 nm south-southeast of Naha, Okinawa. Ewiniar was a
super typhoon for a mere six hours before weakening began to set in on
5 July. However, it remained a powerful major typhoon until 7 July when
the MSW fell below 100 kts. In response to an amplifying mid-latitude
trough over eastern China, Typhoon Ewiniar turned northward, passing
through the southern Ryukyu Islands on 8 July. After passing 100 nm
west of Naha, Okinawa, at 08/1800 UTC, the system was downgraded to a
tropical storm while moving northward through the East China Sea at
09/1200 UTC. Accelerating northwards, Ewiniar made landfall on the
southwest coast of South Korea near Kunsan early on 10 July with an
estimated MSW of 35 kts. After JTWC issued the final warning at 10/0600
UTC, Ewiniar tracked across South Korea on 10 July, emerging into the
Sea of Japan later that same day. JMA declared the system extratropical
and issued the final bulletin at 11/0600 UTC.
JMA's peak 10-min avg MSW for Typhoon Ewiniar was 100 kts on 5 July
with an attendant estimated minimum CP of 920 mb. The cyclone was known
as Typhoon Ester in the Philippines, and PAGASA's peak estimated
intensity for the storm was 95 kts (10-min avg).
The track of Super Typhoon Ewiniar/Ester in tabular format may be
accessed at the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/W/BT/2006-04W-BT.txt>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Ewiniar brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to South Korea where
much damage was reported. At least eight persons were killed or missing.
In China, at least 34 people perished due to floods and mudslides.
Typhoon Ewiniar also affected Yap, Palau, Okinawa, and North Korea.
The above casualty information, along with a much more detailed
description on the impact of Super Typhoon Ewiniar, may be obtained at
the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Ewiniar_%282006%29>
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TROPICAL STORM BILIS
(TC-05W / STS 0604 / FLORITA)
8 - 15 July
-------------------------------------------------
Bilis: contributed by the Philippines, means speed or fleetness
A. Introduction
---------------
As Typhoon Ewiniar was racing northwards towards Korea on 5 July,
Tropical Storm Bilis was evolving from a large monsoon depression west
of Chuuk. The storm slowly strengthened while following a west-northwest
to northwest path across the Northwestern Pacific, finally making
landfall over mainland China, via Taiwan, early on 14 July. Bilis
caused catastrophic loss of life in China and estimated damages of over
2.5 billion dollars.
B. Storm Origins
----------------
The broad persistent area of convection that evolved into Tropical
Storm Bilis was first mentioned in JTWC�s STWO at 0600 UTC 5 July when
it was located approximately 290 nm west of Chuuk. An upper-level
analysis indicated that the system was embedded in a low to moderate
wind shear environment with favourable outflow aloft. Drifting slowly
west-northwestwards, the disturbance developed into a large monsoon
depression on 7 July. A TCFA was issued at 07/1200 UTC, followed in
turn by the first warning at 08/0000 UTC, relocating the centre to a
position 180 nm southwest of Guam. Tropical Depression 05W slowly
strengthened and was upgraded to a tropical storm at 09/1200 UTC. The
tropical cyclone had been named Bilis when JMA raised their MSW to
35-kts six hours earlier.
C. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Bilis remained a large system with monsoon depression
characteristics throughout its life. The JTWC warning issued at 09/1200
UTC noted a circulation measuring approximately 600 nm in diameter while
an earlier QuikScat pass revealed the strongest winds between 30 nm and
90 nm from the centre. Due to the hindering effects of moderate wind
shear and upper-level confluence to the north, Tropical Storm Bilis
strengthened slowly as it followed a west-northwestward track south of
a subtropical ridge, reaching a first peak intensity of 50 kts at
10/1800 UTC while located approximately 540 nm south-southeast of Naha,
Okinawa. Bilis maintained a MSW of 40-45 kts for the next two days
while drifting northwestwards. In time, the wind shear relaxed and the
convergence aloft to the north diminished, allowing Bilis to generate
deep convection near its centre with convective bands spiraling into the
northern semicircle. Tropical Storm Bilis reached its overall peak
strength of 55 kts at 13/0600 UTC and maintained this intensity while
crossing Taiwan on 13 July. From there, Bilis made landfall near
Fuzhou, China, early on 14 July. JTWC issued their last warning at
14/0900 UTC while JMA released their final bulletin at 15/0600 UTC. The
remnants of Bilis persisted for several days as it slowly drifted
westwards over China.
PAGASA assigned the name Florita for this system and issued warnings
between 10/0000 UTC and 14/0000 UTC. Florita was upgraded to a typhoon
at 12/0600 UTC until it was downgraded at 13/0000 UTC. The highest
10-min avg MSW estimated by PAGASA was 65 kts whereas the highest
maximum intensity estimated by JMA was 60 kts (10-min avg). Both these
peak intensities imply a stronger system than was being carried by JTWC.
JMA's minimum estimated CP was 970 mb.
The track of Tropical Storm Bilis/Florita in tabular format may be
accessed at the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/W/BT/2006-05W-BT.txt>
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Torrential rains from Tropical Storm Bilis had a devastating impact
on China. Heavy flooding and mudslides caused estimated damages of over
2.5 billion US dollars and the loss of over 600 lives.
Although Bilis did not attain typhoon intensity, its broad area of
high winds and heavy rains south of the centre affected the Philippines,
causing the loss of 14 lives and 45 million pesos in damages.
Four deaths were reported from Taiwan.
A huge wealth of information on the effects of Tropical Storm Bilis
can be accessed at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bilis_%282006%29>
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TYPHOON KAEMI
(TC-06W / TY 0506 / GLENDA)
17 - 26 July
-----------------------------------------------
Kaemi: contributed by the Republic of Korea (South Korea) means ant.
The ant often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol of
diligence.
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Kaemi developed from a disturbance in the eastern part of the
monsoon trough and was first mentioned as an area of convection
consolidating around a LLCC in JTWC's STWO at 2200 UTC 16 July. The
system was located approximately 625 nm east-southeast of Guam. Upper-
level analysis revealed a light shear environment with good polar
outflow aloft. Moving west-northwestward, the system continued to
develop, prompting JTWC to issue a TCFA at 17/1430 UTC. The first
warning on Tropical Depression 06W followed at 18/0000 UTC. The
tropical cyclone intensified and was upgraded to a tropical storm at
18/1800 UTC, centred 165 nm south-southwest of Guam. TC-06W was named
Kaemi after JMA raised their MSW to 35 kts at 19/0600 UTC.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Tropical Storm Kaemi continued to intensify as it tracked generally
west-northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge to the
northeast and became a 70-kt typhoon at 1200 UTC 20 July approximately
300 nm north-northwest of Yap. Despite moderate wind shear conditions,
Kaemi reached its peak intensity of 90 kts at 21/1800 UTC. On 22 July
Typhoon Kaemi turned to a more northwesterly track as the western
extent of the steering ridge broke down. The tropical cyclone slowly
began to weaken due to the persistent northeasterly wind shear which
displaced the CDO to the southwest of the LLCC. After Kaemi weakened
to minimal typhoon intensity at 24/0000 UTC, the wind shear abated, and
the system re-strengthened back up to 75 kts before the system moved
across southern Taiwan on 24 July. It was downgraded to a 50-kt
tropical storm at 25/0600 UTC prior to making landfall on the Chinese
mainland coast near Jinjiang, Fujian Province. JTWC issued the final
warning at 25/1200 UTC. JMA downgraded Kaemi to a tropical storm at
25/0000 UTC and issued their last bulletin at 25/0600 UTC.
PAGASA named this tropical cyclone Glenda after the tropical cyclone
entered their AOR at 21/0000 UTC. The agency estimated a peak
intensity of 80 kts from 23/0600 UTC to 24/0600 UTC. JMA estimated a
maximum intensity of 80 kts (10-min avg MSW) and a minimum CP of 955
mb.
The track of Typhoon Kaemi/Glenda in tabular format may be accessed
at the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/W/BT/2006-06W-BT.txt>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
According to Wikipedia, Typhoon Kaemi killed at least 32 people in
China. There were no reports of casualties in Taiwan with only slight
damage reported.
The online Wikipedia report for Typhoon Kaemi may be found at the
following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season#Typhoon_Kaemi_.28Glenda.29>
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
TYPHOON PRAPIROON
(TC-07W / TY 0606 / HENRY)
28 July - 5 August
----------------------------------------------
Prapiroon: contributed by Thailand, is the Thai god of rain
A. Introduction
---------------
Typhoon Prapiroon was the last of a series of three tropical cyclones
to strike the Chinese mainland, following the disastrous impacts of
Typhoon Kaemi and Tropical Storm Bilis during mid-July. Prapiroon
followed a west-northwesterly track, further south than the previous
two storms, crossing the northern Philippines on 31 July. From there,
Prapiroon transited the South China Sea and moved into China on 3 August.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
Typhoon Prapiroon was first detected as an area of persistent
convection approximately 65 nm west-southwest of Yap, and was first
mentioned in JTWC's regular STWO at 0600 UTC 25 July. Both multi-
spectral satellite imagery and a 24/2216 UTC QuikScat pass revealed a
LLCC with persistent convection on the western periphery. Upper-level
analysis indicated low to moderate wind shear with developing equatorward
outflow. The disturbance persisted for several days without significant
development as it drifted west to west-northwestwards towards the
northern Philippines. PAGASA named this system Henry after it entered
their AOR at 28/1200 UTC. Finally, at 30/0230 UTC, a TCFA was issued
based on increasing deep convection over a better-defined LLCC. The
first warning at 31/0000 UTC placed Tropical Depression 07W approximately
115 nm east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Movement was towards the
west-northwest south of a subtropical ridge.
After crossing Luzon, Philippines, on 31 July, Tropical Depression 07W
was upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm in the South China Sea at 01/0000
UTC. It was named Prapiroon six hours later when JMA raised their
10-min avg MSW to 35 kts. Prapiroon continued to intensify as it drifted
west-northwestward and became a minimal typhoon at 02/0600 UTC
approximately 205 nm south of Hong Kong, China. Typhoon Prapiroon
reached its maximum intensity of 70 kts at 03/0000 UTC. The abrupt
stair-step in the storm's track late on 2 August was caused by a deep
mid-latitude trough over China. The system made landfall in the vicinity
of Yangjiang, Guangdong Province, China, as a minimal typhoon at around
03/1200 UTC. It was downgraded to a 45-kt tropical storm in JTWC's
final warning at 03/1800 UTC. JMA maintained Prapiroon as a tropical
storm until 05/0000 UTC when that agency issued the final statement.
PAGASA issued advisories on Tropical Storm Henry from 28/1200 UTC
until 01/1200 UTC and estimated a peak intensity of 45 kts. JMA
estimated a maximum intensity of 70 kts and a minimum CP of 965 mb.
The track of Typhoon Prapiroon/Henry in tabular format may be accessed
at the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/W/BT/2006-07W-BT.txt>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Typhoon Prapiroon brought heavy rainfall and powerful winds to
southern China on 3 August. News reports indicate that 77 people were
killed.
The Wikipedia report for Prapiroon may be accessed at the following
link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season#Typhoon_Prapiroon_.28Henry.29>
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for July: 1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some
information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
weather services for tropical cyclone warnings. For synoptic
observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied. In the North Indian Ocean
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
within 48 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC-03B)
2 - 4 July
------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone 03B was a very rare North Indian Ocean July tropical
storm. Since 1981, only one other tropical cyclone of gale intensity has
formed in that basin (per JTWC's analysis)--that was in 1992. No North
Indian systems have reached hurricane intensity during the month. By
July the southwest monsoon has advanced northward and the ITCZ lies over
land, sometimes retreating southward to the head of the Bay of Bengal.
In their famous book _Atlantic Hurricanes_, Dunn and Miller write that
occasionally during the summer tropical cyclones will form over the wet,
monsoon-flooded plains of Bengal and have produced winds to 50 kts as
they begin moving northwestward across northern India.
An area of convection developed and persisted on 30 June approximately
180 nm south of Calcutta. The convection was southwest of a LLCC and was
being enhanced by the convergence of strong southwesterly monsoonal
winds. However, an upper-level analysis indicated that vertical shear
was high, so no imminent development was expected. The system began to
intensify somewhat rapidly late on 1 July and at 0300 UTC on the 2nd the
IMD had classified it as a deep depression, implying 30-kt winds. The
center was located about 130 nm south-southeast of Calcutta and was
forecast to move in a westerly direction. The 0830 UTC satellite
bulletin from AFWA assigned a Dvorak rating of T2.5/2.5, and the JTWC
bulletin at 1130 UTC also rated the system at T2.5/2.5.
As it strengthened the system drifted a little west-southwestward.
JTWC issued their first warning on TC-03B at 02/1800 UTC, placing the
center very near the Indian coast about 190 nm southwest of Calcutta,
or just southeast of Cuttack. A 02/1800 UTC surface observation at
Bhubaneswar, India, reported a SLP of 982 mb. However, according to
the IMD, the center crossed the Orissa coast between Paradip and
Chandbali around 1500 UTC. The system quickly began to weaken as it
moved farther inland and JTWC issued their second and final warning on
TC-03B at 03/0600 UTC. IMD continued to follow the system as depression
through 1200 UTC on 4 July when it was well inland.
The track of Tropical Cyclone 03B in tabular format may be accessed at
the following URL:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/2006/I/BT/2006-03B-BT.txt>
No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Tropical Cyclone 03B
are available.
A short online report on this system may be accessed at the following
URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Indian_cyclone_season#Tropical_Cyclone_03B>
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for July: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for July: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for July: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for July: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2005 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2005 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0607.htm
Updated: 3rd October 2006 |
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