[Index]
Tropical Cyclone GAMEDE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone GAMEDE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20070220 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S 75.0E TO 14.2S 66.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 74.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 75.6E
HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 14.3S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 425NM SOUTH-SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE 201501Z SSMI AND 201531Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER WRAPPING
INTO A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER ALL QUADRANTS AND
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN-
ED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE RECENT CONSOLID-
ATION AND IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.2S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. TC 15S IS EX-
PECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSI-
FY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD EQUTORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES AN
AREA OF IMPROVED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201951Z FEB 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211353FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.2S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.4S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.7S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IM-
AGERY AND A 211519Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION CONTIN-
UING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15S HAS RADIAL AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT LACKS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACK-
ING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL MIDLATITUDE PATTERN, THE STR WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. TC 15S WILL INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE LACK OF A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL HINDER EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2201533FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.0S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 15S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE DUE TO MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221353FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.5S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.7S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.1S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A BANDING EYE AND CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 15S CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD, TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD TRACK. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND THUS TC 15S WILL
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD PAST TAU 24, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY, AND INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AT A SLOWER RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z AND 232100Z. SEE REFS A AND B TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
(WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230153FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.4S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.5S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.6S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.8S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 60.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 15S IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48.
TC 15S WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 12,
WHEN DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A
LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP GFS AND AFWA MM5 BEING THE SOUTHERN-
MOST OUTLIERS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231353FEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 58.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 58.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.0S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.3S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 58.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. TC 15S WILL
INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO SUPPRESSED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240153ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 57.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 57.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.2S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.7S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.2S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. GENERAL WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPEC-
TED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTHWARD,
INDUCING A REORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
ALLOWING PERIPHERAL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO EXERT
AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
REFLECTS SLOWER TRACK SPEED AND A SOUTHWARD TURN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO
RIDGES. TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS
DUE TO REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE
MORE OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEAKER TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241353ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 56.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 56.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.2S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 55.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 15S, BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 48. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER TRACK
SPEED AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TURN BY TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING STEERING
FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW IMPROVES. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKER TROUGHING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW 241500) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250153ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.7S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.4S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.9S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S HAS TAKEN A WESTWARD TURN OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REPRESENTS A
DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED WEST OF SOUTH AFRICA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 12,
ALLOWING A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE STORM
TO EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK. THUS THE FORE-
CAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A SLOWDOWN AND SOUTHWARD TURN BY TAU 48
AS THE STORM RESPONDS TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 15S
HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DEVELOPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOREMENTIONED NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251353ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 18.5S 54.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 54.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.7S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.7S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FORWARD
MOTION OCCURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
REPRESENTS A DEPARTURE IN TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TC 15S HAS INTENSIFIED AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24, AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 15S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260153ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.5S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.0S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AND
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
ALLOWING THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCEL-
ERATE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT
IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPS AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(HUMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261353ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.4S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.1S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 52.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR AND
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
ALLOWING THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND
TRACK SOUTHWARD. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE
TO UPWELLING COOLER WATER. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (HUMBA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW 261500).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZFEB2007//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.5S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.1S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS LOST THE MAJORITY OF ITS OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DE-
CREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LOCAL DECREASE IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE DUE TO INCREASED UPWELLING
AND MIXING DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE STORM WAS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
STORM HAS NOW BEGUN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
HAS BROKEN DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) PREVIOUSLY OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE STR HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A COMPETING STEERING IN-
FLUENCE WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC
15S, THUS INDUCING THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. THE NER HAS BUILT
SOUTHWARD, AND IS NOW THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM.
TC 15S WILL CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN IN-
CREASE IN SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM
THE SELF-INDUCED LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW IS EN-
HANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. PAST TAU 24,
TC 15S WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HUMBA) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW 261500).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070227 21:00z
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 52.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 52.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.0S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.5S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.7S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 52.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24
BUT WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
NEAR TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH AFRICA BUILDS BACK TO THE EAST. BASED ON THE 270936Z
TRMM 37GHZ AND 85GHZ IMAGES, TC 15S APPEARS TO BE TILTING WITH
THE 85GHZ CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 20NM EAST OF THE 37GHZ CENTER.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 36, TC 15S WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.3S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.2S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 30.7S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM FORMERLY KNOWN AS 16S. THE STORM CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENTION TO ITS EAST,
AND HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 15S WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR POLEWARD PATH, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AROUND TAU 24
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA BUILDS EASTWARD, PRO-
VIDING A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NER. AFTER TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY FROM TAU 48 ONWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 26.4S 50.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 50.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 29.6S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 30.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 31.3S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 49.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST.
TC 15S CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOW AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA BUILDS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NER.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO
THE WEST AND THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND DE-
CREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070301 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 28.6S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.2S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 31.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 32.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.8S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONGER MIDLATITUDE FLOW. TC 15S CONTINUES TO
TRACK POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THE TRACK SPEED OF TC 15S WILL SLOW DUE THE DECOUPLING OF THE
LLCC AND ALSO DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NER. TC 15S WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE CONTINUED
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM TAU 36 ONWARD, TC 15S WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A WARM CORE TO A COLD CORE SYSTEM, AIDED BY
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 010900Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 49.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 30.3S 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 31.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 32.3S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 33.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 30.6S 48.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND A 011656Z SSMI/S IMAGE INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONGER MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE TRACK SPEED OF TC 15S CONTINUES
TO SLOW DUE TO THE DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC. THE STEERING LEVEL FOR
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL 500 MB FLOW
TO THE LOWER LEVEL 850 MB FLOW. AFTER TAU 12, TC 15S WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHILE THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISPLACED FROM THE
LLCC. THIS FORECAST IS A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
ANTICIPATED THAT THE STORM WOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TC 15S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20070302 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 31.5S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 32.4S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 48.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING MORE RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 020416Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE STORM CENTER AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYS-
TEM AND A SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, A
020302Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND SLOW WEAK-
ENING THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET.//
|
Document: gamede.htm
Updated: 3rd March 2007 |
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