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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary November 2008
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                   MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY

                               NOVEMBER, 2008

  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)

  *************************************************************************

                            NOVEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  --> Cuba struck by yet another strong hurricane
  --> A second typhoon-free month in the Northwest Pacific basin
  --> Two cyclonic storms strike India
  --> A couple of minor South Indian Ocean systems

  *************************************************************************

                     WIKIPEDIA TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS

     Short reports with satellite pictures and small-scale maps for all 
  tropical cyclones may be found at the following links:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_hurricane_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_typhoon_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_North_Indian_cyclone_season>

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008-09_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season>

  For some storms more detailed reports have been prepared.  In those cases
  I will include the specific links in the reports for the applicable
  tropical cyclones.

  *************************************************************************
  
                            ACTIVITY BY BASINS

  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico

  Activity for November:  1 intense hurricane


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida:
  discussions, public advisories, forecast/advisories, tropical weather
  outlooks, special tropical disturbance statements, etc.    Some
  additional information may have been gleaned from the monthly
  summaries prepared by the hurricane specialists and available on
  TPC/NHC's website.     All references to sustained winds imply a
  1-minute averaging period unless otherwise noted.


                  Atlantic Tropical Activity for November
                  ---------------------------------------

     One tropical cyclone developed in the Atlantic basin during November,
  2008, and it became a rare November intense hurricane.  On the average,
  a tropical storm forms in November about every other year with a
  hurricane about every three years.  Intense hurricanes are rare, yet
  there have been two within the past 10 years:  Lenny in 1999 and
  Michelle in 2001.  And Lenny and Michelle, along with this year's
  Paloma, were all Category 4 hurricanes.   Hurricane Paloma was the
  third intense hurricane to strike the island nation of Cuba, the earlier
  ones being Gustav and Ike.  This is the first time since at least 1851
  that three Category 3 or higher hurricanes have struck the island.

     During the first week of November there was another frontal hybrid
  storm off the U. S. East Coast that was somewhat similar to the system
  which made landfall in the Carolinas in late September.  This storm on
  6 November was located off Virginia and North Carolina.  There was some
  discussion on various e-mail lists if the system might qualify as a
  subtropical storm.  Jack Beven pointed out that two characteristics
  normally associated with tropical cyclones are not exclusive to tropical
  cyclones: a warm core and a tight inner wind core.   Baroclinic "bomb"
  storms can form warm cores through a seclusion process, and tight inner
  wind cores similar to tropical cyclones have been observed in baroclinic
  cyclones as well.  According to Jack, the early November system possessed
  an inner wind core and was attempting to develop organized convection,
  but surface data suggested that it still had frontal characteristics.
  (TPC/NHC's operational definition of both tropical and subtropical
  cyclones requires that they be non-frontal.)  By the time the cyclone
  had evolved to the point where the fronts were dissipating, so was the
  convection.



                             HURRICANE PALOMA
                                  (TC-17)
                              5 - 10 November
                   ------------------------------------

     Paloma, the second strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record,
  formed from a broad area of disturbed weather that persisted over the
  southwestern Caribbean Sea for several days in early November.  A
  tropical wave that moved west off the coast of Africa on 23 October
  moved into this area on 4 November, increasing the coverage and
  organization of showers and thunderstorms.  The disturbance developed
  into a tropical depression on 5 November about 100 nm east of Cabo
  Gracias a Dios along the Nicaragua/Honduras border.  The depression
  moved slowly to the northwest and became a tropical storm on the 6th
  about 75 nm east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios.  Later that day,
  Paloma (which means 'dove' in Spanish) turned toward the north and
  began to rapidly intensify, becoming a hurricane early on 7 November
  about 245 nm west-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Paloma continued
  to rapidly intensify as it turned to the northeast and moved very close
  to the Cayman Islands of Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on 7-8 November.
  As Paloma continued northeastward toward the southern coast of Cuba,
  it reached a peak intensity of 125 kts on 8 November when it was located
  about 30 nm west-southwest of Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba.  As vertical
  shear increased, Paloma began to weaken, making landfall near Santa
  Cruz del Sur late on the 8th with an estimated MSW of 110 kts.  (NOTE:
  in post-storm analysis, the landfall intensity of Paloma has been reduced
  significantly, from 110 kts to 85 kts.  This makes Paloma a Category 2
  hurricane at landfall rather than a strong Category 3 as previously
  reported.)

     After landfall, Paloma turned toward the north, slowed, and rapidly
  weakened due to strong vertical shear and land interaction.  The system
  weakened into a tropical storm on 9 November near Camaguey, Cuba, and
  then to a tropical depression early on the 10th, also very near Camaguey.
  The depression degenerated into a remnant LOW about 35 nm north of
  Camaguey later that day when it lost all deep convection.  The remnant
  LOW of Paloma moved slowly northward and then made a loop off the
  north-central coast of Cuba on 10-11 November.  On 11 November, the
  remnant LOW moved south and then southwestward across central Cuba
  into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The LOW turned toward the west-
  northwest and emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on 13 November
  (the author's birthday).  The remnants of Paloma then turned toward the
  north and eventually reached the Florida Panhandle on 14 November.

     According to the Wikipedia report, damage in Grand Cayman was not
  severe, consisting of downed trees and power lines along with some
  flooding.  Cayman Brac experienced more severe damage with 90% of the
  buildings damaged.   The total damage in the Caymans has been estimated
  at US$609 million.

     In Cuba, near Santa Cruz del Sur where Paloma stormed ashore, 435
  homes were torn to shreds.  The 4-metre (14-foot) storm surge swept more
  than a mile inland, leaving wooden houses in splinters, topped with
  seaweed.  Overall, damages in Cuba totaled US$1.4 billion, but the
  government reported that there were no deaths.   The Santa Cruz del Sur
  area fared very differently in Paloma than it did in the great 1932
  hurricane, which struck the same area on 9 November with the loss of
  over 3100 lives.  The combined damage total in Cuba from Hurricanes Ike,
  Gustav and Paloma has been estimated at US$9.4 billion.

     The Wikipedia report on Hurricane Paloma may be accessed at the
  following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Paloma_(2008)>

     The official TPC/NHC report on Paloma, written by Michael Brennan, is
  now available at the following link:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008atlan.shtml>

     The report on Hurricane Ike, authored by Robbie Berg, is also now
  available at the above URL.

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  1 tropical storm
                     
   
                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
  various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
  Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
  Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
  locations west of longitude 140W):  discussions, public advisories,
  forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
  disturbance statements, etc.  Some additional information may have
  been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
  specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website.  All references to
  sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
  noted.
                   

              Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for November
              ------------------------------------------------

     One short-lived and small tropical storm formed in Eastern Pacific
  waters during the first week of November.  Tropical Storm Polo, like
  the earlier Marco in the Bay of Campeche, was an unusually small cyclone
  as measured by the radial extent of gale-force winds.  (Interesting that
  Marco and Polo were both such tiny storms in the same year!)  A tropical
  storm forms in the Northeast Pacific in November about once every three
  years, the last being Sergio in 2006.  Hurricanes are much rarer--the
  last November hurricane in the basin was Sergio of 2006, the strongest
  late-season hurricane on record.  Prior to Sergio, the previous November
  Eastern Pacific hurricane was Rick of 1997.



                           TROPICAL STORM POLO
                                 (TC-18E)
                              2 - 5 November
                 ---------------------------------------

     Polo was a short-lived low-latitude tropical cyclone that formed
  from a tropical wave along the ITCZ.  Tropical Depression 18E formed
  on 2 November about 700 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and
  then strengthened to a tropical storm early on 3 November as convection
  developed around a small center.  Polo reached a peak intensity of 35 kts
  before degenerating into a open trough early on 5 November about 980 nm
  southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  (NOTE: In the post-
  storm Best Track file, the peak intensity has been upped to 40 kts.)

     The official TPC/NHC storm report on Tropical Storm Polo, authored
  by Robbie Berg, is already available the following link:

  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2008epac.shtml>

  According to this report, only four Eastern Pacific cyclones have reached
  tropical storm intensity at a lower latitude than Polo: Tropical Storm
  Jimena (1979), Hurricane Agatha (1980), Hurricane Adolph (1983), and
  Tropical Storm Velma (1983).  It is interesting to note than in the Best
  Track file, the entire track of Polo (as defined by the coordinates of
  the center) lies south of latitude 10N.

     Polo was a very small tropical cyclone.  Following is a quote from
  Robbie's report:

     "Like Atlantic Tropical Storm Marco, Polo was a small tropical
  cyclone.  QuikScat data indicate that the radius of tropical storm-force
  winds only extended out to 25 nm from the center.   The intensity of
  small tropical cyclones is often difficult to estimate with the Dvorak
  technique, and it is possible that Polo could have been more intense
  than indicated by satellite techniques.  In Marco's case, for example,
  satellite intensity techniques estimated a peak intensity between
  30 and 45 kts, whereas aircraft reconnaissance measured a peak intensity
  of 55 kts."

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180

  Activity for November:  2 tropical depressions **
                          3 tropical storms

  ** - one of these treated as a tropical depression by PAGASA only; the
       other by JMA only


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   In the companion
  tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
  from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
  positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.   All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise noted.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
  warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
  Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
  Administration (PAGASA).   A very special thanks to Michael for the 
  assistance he so reliably provides.

     In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:   JTWC's depression number, the 
  JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
  and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
  area of warning responsibility.


               Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for November
               ------------------------------------------------

     As was the case with October, no typhoons formed in the WESTPAC during
  November, 2008, making this the first year since sometime prior to 1959
  to have a typhoon-free October and November.  Over the period 1959-2007,
  an average of 2.4 named storms has formed in November with 1.6 reaching
  typhoon intensity.  Three tropical storms formed in November, 2008, so
  the month was near average in that regard.  Tropical Storms Maysak and
  Noul traversed the South China Sea, while Haishen formed and quickly
  recurved well to the southeast of Japan.   Reports on these three
  tropical storms follow.

     Two additional systems were classified as tropical depressions, one
  apparently by PAGASA only, and one by JMA only.   A disturbance formed
  east of the southern Philippines on 5 November, being located at 1800
  UTC about 280 nm northeast of Zamboanga.  The system moved fairly
  quickly westward and JTWC upped the potential for development to 'fair'
  at 06/0600 UTC.  Deep convection was banding on the northern periphery
  and a station had reported a 24-hour pressure fall of 3 hPa.  Also on
  the 6th, PAGASA classified the system as a tropical depression, naming
  it Rolly.  Tropical Depression Rolly moved from near northeastern
  Mindanao to near Palawan by 9 November.  The system had by then weakened
  and PAGASA classified it as a low-pressure area.

     A disturbance developed roughly 200 nm northeast of Manila near
  17N/123E on 10 November.  JMA referenced this system as a weak tropical
  depression from 0000 UTC 10 November through 1200 UTC 12 November.
  During this time the weak LLCC drifted generally eastward to near
  18N/130E.  The High Seas Bulletin issued at 12/1800 UTC downgraded the
  system to a low-pressure area near 16N/130E, moving slowly to the
  south-southwest.  JTWC referenced this system in their daily STWO's as
  a 'poor' area for development.
  


                           TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK
                     (TC-24W / STS 0819 / QUINTA-SIONY)
                              6 - 14 November
           ------------------------------------------------------

  Maysak: contributed by Cambodia, is the name of a type of tree

     An area of convection formed and persisted on 5 November about 280 nm
  northeast of Zamboanga in the Philippines.  The disturbance moved west-
  ward toward the archipelago and at 0000 UTC on 6 November, PAGASA
  classified the system as a tropical depression and named it Quinta.
  At 0600 UTC JTWC upgraded the potential for development to 'fair' since
  deep convection was banding on the northern periphery of the LLCC.
  The system's organization continued to improve, and at 06/1500 UTC JTWC
  issued a TCFA with the LLCC located about 285 nm north of Zamboanga.
  At 06/1800 UTC JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 24W.
  The system had been moving fairly quickly westward and at this time was
  located about 140 nm south-southwest of Manila.   Both JTWC and PAGASA
  upgraded TD-24W/Quinta to tropical storm status at 07/0000 UTC, and
  six hours later JMA followed suit, naming the storm Maysak.  Tropical
  Storm Maysak/Quinta subsequently moved west-northwestward into the
  central South China Sea and began to curve to the north due to the
  effects of a deepening trough over China.  PAGASA issued their final
  warning on Tropical Storm Quinta at 08/0000 UTC as the system temporarily
  left that agency's AOR.

     Maysak became quasi-stationary around 0000 UTC on 9 November about
  360 nm northwest of Manila.  It was at that time that the storm reached
  its peak intensity of 60 kts (50-kts 10-min avg per JMA) with an
  estimated minimum CP of 985 hPa.   Even as Maysak reached its peak
  intensity, the JTWC forecast was calling for the trough to the north
  to induce vertical shear over the cyclone, resulting in weakening
  followed by a southward turn.   That is exactly what happened.  Within
  twenty-four hours of reaching its peak intensity, Maysak had weakened
  to a 25-kt tropical depression and JTWC issued their final warning,
  placing the center about 280 nm west-northwest of Manila and tracking
  south-southeastward at 6 kts.  JMA followed the remnants of Maysak for
  four more days as a weak tropical depression.  The south-southeastward
  motion eventually halted and the system turned toward the west-southwest,
  later followed by a generally westerly motion.  The final reference to
  ex-Maysak in JMA's High Seas Forecasts was at 1200 UTC on 14 November
  when the system was downgraded to a low-pressure area about 325 nm
  south-southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam.

     The weakening Maysak re-entered PAGASA's AOR on 9 November and
  advisories were re-initiated on the system as Tropical Storm Quinta.
  PAGASA downgraded Quinta to a tropical depression on the 10th and dropped
  the system the next day.  However, on 12 November the agency began once
  more to issue advisories on the depression, but renamed it Siony.
  However, Tropical Depression Siony began moving westward and moved out
  of PAGASA's AOR later on the 12th.

     The Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council reported that
  over 4800 people were affected by Tropical Storm Maysak/Quinta.  A total
  of 92 homes were either partially or totally destroyed, and 19 people
  reportedly lost their lives with 14 persons injured.  In Vietnam, Maysak
  was responsible for flooding rains which left at least 11 persons dead.
  Floodwaters in Ho Chi Minh City were estimated to be at least a metre
  deep.  This information was obtained from the Wikipedia report, which
  can be accessed at the following URL:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Maysak_(2008)>

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                          TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN
                            (TC-25W / TS 0820)
                             15 - 21 November
                ------------------------------------------

  Haishen: contributed by China, is the god of the sea.  Traditionally,
           sailors and fishermen would offer sacrifices to this god for
           safe voyages before they set sail or when they encountered
           stormy weather.

     An area of convection developed and persisted on 15 November about
  265 nm east-southeast of Iwo To.  Deep convection was developing along
  the eastern periphery of a TUTT cell that was beginning the transition
  to a warm-core system.  QuikScat data showed that a LLCC had developed
  during the previous twelve hours, and JMA began at 15/0000 UTC to
  reference the system as a weak tropical depression.  JMA upped the MSW
  to 30 kts at 1200 UTC, and JTWC issued a TCFA at 1630 UTC.  By this
  time the system had transformed into a fully warm-core circulation.
  JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 25W at 1800 UTC,
  placing the center approximately 475 nm east of Iwo To and moving
  northeastward at 15 kts along the northwestern periphery of a subtropical
  steering ridge to the southeast.  At the same time JMA upgraded the
  depression to a minimal tropical storm and assigned the name Haishen.

     JTWC upgraded Haishen to a 40-kt tropical storm at 16/0000 UTC, which
  was the peak intensity for this short-lived tropical cyclone.  Haishen
  thereafter began to weaken as drier air began to wrap around the western
  portion of the LLCC.  At 16/1200 UTC JTWC issued their final warning
  on the system with the center located about 675 nm east of Chichi Jima
  and moving east-northeastward at 20 kts.  In their opinion the storm
  was rapidly taking on extratropical characteristics as it moved ahead
  of a strong baroclinic boundary.  JMA maintained Haishen as a tropical
  cyclone for another 24 hours before declaring it extratropical.  The
  remnants of Haishen accelerated eastward across the North Pacific,
  crossing the Dateline at 19/0000 UTC.  The system intensified to
  storm intensity for a 24-hour period late on the 19th into the 20th,
  but had weakened to a 35-kt gale near 37N/162W by 0000 UTC 21 November.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Storm Haishen.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)
              


                            TROPICAL STORM NOUL
                        (TC-26W / TS 0821 / TONYO)
                             15 - 18 November
              ----------------------------------------------

  Noul: contributed by North Korea (DPR), means 'glows, or 'red sky'

     JTWC's regular STWO issued at 13/0600 UTC mentioned that an area of
  convection had persisted about 165 nm west of Koror.  A broad LLCC was
  present with poorly-organized convective banding along the northern and
  eastern peripheries.  Vertical shear was moderate but a TUTT cell to
  the east was providing an outflow mechanism.   Later that day the
  potential for development was upgraded to 'fair', and as the system was
  approaching Mindanao, PAGASA named the disturbance Tropical Depression
  Tonyo.   Tonyo tracked westward across southern Mindanao, then turned
  more to the west-northwest as it entered the South China Sea.  JMA
  referenced the system as a weak tropical depression at 15/1800 UTC,
  then upgraded it to 30 kts six hours later.  At the same time, JTWC
  issued their first warning on Tropical Depression 26W, located 
  approximately 390 nm east-southeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam, and moving 
  briskly westward at 16 kts, steered by a zonally-oriented subtropical 
  ridge.

     Both JTWC and JMA upgraded the depression to tropical storm status
  at 16/0600 UTC with JMA naming it Noul.  Tropical Storm Noul continued
  on a track slightly north of due west across the southern South China
  Sea, making landfall about 25 nm south of Nha Trang, Vietnam, around
  17/0600 UTC.  The maximum intensity reported by both JTWC and JMA was
  40 kts.  However, Mark Lander reports that a ship, the Colombo Express,
  passed through the cyclone around 17/0000 UTC and reported winds of
  55 kts with a minimum SLP of 996.0 hPa.  Once inland, Noul quickly
  weakened and JTWC issued their final warning on the system at 17/1200
  UTC with the center about 195 km west of Nha Trang.

     According to the Wikipedia summary, some provinces were flooded in
  Vietnam, but no casualties had been reported at the time.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

  Activity for November:  2 cyclonic storms


                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
  cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
  by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
  Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some
  information may be gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks
  and other bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department
  (IMD), which is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional
  Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds (MSW) are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.  In the North Indian Ocean
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system has
  become well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status
  within 48 hours.

                       
              North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
              -------------------------------------------------

     Two tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity formed in the North
  Indian Ocean basin during the month of November, both in the Bay of
  Bengal.  Both of these were classified as cyclonic storms by IMD and
  assigned names.  November is the most active month in this basin.  Over
  the period 1981-2002, an average of 1.45 cyclonic storms formed in the
  NIO (based on JTWC's database) with a storm of hurricane force appearing
  in about three years out of four.  Neither Khai Muk nor Nisha reached
  hurricane intensity, but both made landfall in southeastern India.
  Reports on both of these systems follow.



                          CYCLONIC STORM KHAI MUK
                                  (TC-05B)
                             13 - 16 November
                -------------------------------------------

  Khai Muk: contributed by Thailand

     The origins of Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk (which means 'pearl' in the
  Thai language), can be traced to an area of convection which developed
  in the extreme southeastern Bay of Bengal on 9 November.  At 09/1800
  UTC the area was centered about 80 nm north-northwest of Phuket, Thai-
  land.  QuikScat data revealed an elongated LLCC with enhanced convection.
  The system was just emerging into the Bay and overall environmental
  conditions were fairly favorable for continued development.  Over the
  next few days the disturbance moved westward across the southern Bay of
  Bengal with only a slow increase in organization.  By the 12th deep
  convection, which had previously been confined to the peripheries of the
  circulation, had begun to develop near the center.  The system lay
  near the axis of an upper-level anticyclone in an area of low to moderate
  vertical shear.  Based on the developing central convection, JTWC upped
  the development potential to 'fair' with the LLCC then located about
  430 nm east of Madras, India.

     A TCFA was issued at 1530 UTC on 13 November based on the continued
  consolidation of deep convection and with convective banding wrapping
  into the center.  Earlier, at 1200 UTC, IMD had classified the system
  as a depression.  Development continued and at 0000 UTC 14 November,
  JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Cyclone 05B with 35-kt winds.
  About the same time, IMD raised the classification to deep depression,
  implying 30-kt winds.  Later that day, IMD upgraded the system to
  cyclonic storm status, naming it Khai Muk.   Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk
  reached its peak intensity of 45 kts (per JTWC) at 14/1200 UTC when
  located about 235 nm east-northeast of Madras.  Khai Muk was forecast
  to intensify as it continued west-northwestward toward India's eastern
  coast, but moderate vertical shear prevented any further intensification,
  and the system weakened as it approached India.  IMD reduced Khai Muk
  back to deep depression status at 15/0600 UTC, and JTWC lowered their
  intensity estimate to 35 kts, but raised it back to 40 kts at 15/1200
  UTC as some deep convection had flared back over the LLCC.

     Khai Muk made landfall in Andhra Pradesh approximately 100 nm north
  of Chennai, India, or just north of Kavali (WMO 43243), between 2200 
  and 2300 UTC 15 November.  JTWC issued their final warning at that hour,
  placing the center about 195 km north-northwest of Chennai.  The MSW was
  estimated at 35 kts and forecast to quickly weaken.  As noted above, IMD
  considered the landfalling system to be a 30-kt deep depression.

     According to Wikipedia, damage in India was minor and no deaths were
  confirmed resulting from Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)



                           CYCLONIC STORM NISHA
                                 (TC-06B)
                             25 - 28 November
                 ----------------------------------------

  Nisha: contributed by Bangladesh

     A broad area of convection was located northeast of Columbo, Sri
  Lanka, on 24 November.  Deep convection was observed flanking the
  northern and southern peripheries of the LLCC but was minimal near the
  center.   JTWC upgraded the development potential to 'good' and issued
  a TCFA at 0730 UTC on 25 November as satellite imagery revealed a
  rapidly consolidating LLCC with associated deep convection.  The system
  had been over land in northern Sri Lanka, but was beginning to move
  over water at a position about 200 nm south-southeast of Madras, India.
  About the same time IMD classified the system as a depression, and
  then elevated the status to deep depression at 25/1200 UTC.   JTWC's
  first warning wasn't issued until 1800 UTC, but SAB's satellite fix
  bulletin at 1430 UTC assigned a Dvorak rating of T3.0/3.0, so in the
  companion cyclone tracks file, I estimated the MSW at 35 kts for that
  time.  JTWC's first warning at 1800 UTC estimated the MSW at 40 kts,
  and Tropical Cyclone 06B was estimated to be located about 245 nm east
  of Cochin, India, and tracking north-northwestward at 3 kts.

     TC-06B continued to intensify and reached its peak intensity of 50 kts
  (per JTWC) at 26/0600 UTC.   Also, very early on the 26th IMD upgraded
  the deep depression to Cyclonic Storm Nisha.  The 26/1200 UTC JTWC
  warning stated that Nisha had made landfall, but the 1800 UTC warning
  stated that radar and microwave imagery indicated that the LLCC was
  still over water.   According to an IMD bulletin, Nisha's center crossed
  the coast just north of Karaikal (WMO 43346) around 27/0100 UTC.  The
  final JTWC warning, issued at 27/0600 UTC, still assigned a 50-kt
  intensity, but weakening was forecast.   Nisha continued moving farther
  inland with weakening.  By early on 28 November IMD had reduced the
  system to a well-marked low-pressure area, located over north interior
  Tamilnadu and adjoining south interior Karnataka and Rayalseema.  The
  peak intensity estimated for Nisha by IMD was 45 kts.

     According to Wikipedia, heavy rains from the pre-Nisha disturbance
  were responsible for 15 deaths in Sri Lanka.  Upwards of 90,000 people
  were displaced by the floodwaters.  Jaffna recorded its highest rainfall
  since 1918, with 520.1 mm falling during one week, and what appears to
  be a 24-hour total of 389.8 mm being the highest in 90 years.

     In Orathanadu, India, over 660 mm of rain fell within a 24-hour period
  and broke a 65-year old record for any location in Tamilnadu.  The same
  station registered a two-day total of 990 mm.  In India, 189 people lost
  their lives with the death toll expected to rise (from the time of the
  Wikipedia entry).

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E

  Activity for November:  1 moderate tropical storm


                           Sources of Information
                           ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
  the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
  Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  for the basin.    However, tropical cyclones in this region are named 
  by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and 
  Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their 
  respective areas of naming responsibility.  The La Reunion centre only 
  advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.  
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
  otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
  40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
  1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
  tracks file.    Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


           Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for November
           -----------------------------------------------------
     The second tropical storm of the 2008-2009 season in the Southwest
  Indian Ocean formed about a month after the first.  The ephemeral
  Bernard was treated as a tropical storm for only one warning cycle by
  MFR, although JTWC did so for about a day.  A brief report on this system
  follows.



                          TROPICAL STORM BERNARD
                             (MFR-03 / TC-03S)
                             19 - 21 November
                ------------------------------------------

     At 1800 UTC 15 November JTWC issued a STWO noting that an area of
  convection had persisted about 430 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia.
  A consolidating LLCC lay equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis in
  an area of moderate easterly vertical shear with favorable poleward
  and westward diffluence aloft.  The development potential was rated
  as 'poor'.   Over the next few days the disturbance moved rather slowly
  in a general eastward direction with little development.  However, on
  the 19th satellite imagery indicated a very small, consolidating system
  with deep convective banding wrapping into the northern quadrant.
  Based on this, JTWC issued a TCFA at 19/0830 UTC and upped the
  development potential to 'good'.  At 0600 UTC on 19 November MFR
  initiated bulletins on Tropical Disturbance 03, locating the center
  about 375 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia.

     JTWC issued their first warning on TC-03S at 19/1800 UTC, locating
  the center approximately 465 nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia and
  tracking eastward at 8 kts.  The initial warning intensity was 35 kts
  (1-min avg).  At the same time MFR upgraded the system to a 30-kt
  tropical depression.  At 0600 UTC 12 November JTWC upped the 1-min avg
  MSW to 40 kts, based on 30-kt unflagged and 40-kt flagged QuikScat
  winds near the center, as well as satellite intensity estimates ranging
  from 35 to 45 kts.   TC-03S at the time was located about 780 nm west
  of the Cocos Islands and moving eastward at 20 kts.  Six hours later,
  MFR upgraded the system to a moderate tropical storm with the Mauritius
  Meteorological Service assigning the name Bernard.

     However, six hours later at 20/1800 UTC MFR downgraded Bernard back
  to tropical depression status, and JTWC issued their final warning at the
  same time.   Increased interaction with a low to mid-level trough to the
  southwest and a near-equatorial ridge extension to the northeast had led
  to a significant increase in track speed.  At 1800 UTC Bernard was flying
  east-southeastward at 27 kts--very unusual for a low-latitude system.
  This had led to decoupling of the convection and the low-level center,
  and along with decreasing SSTs, the system had weakened quickly.  MFR 
  issued the final bulletin on ex-Bernard at 21/0000 UTC, placing a weak 
  20-kt center about 365 nm west-northwest of the Cocos Islands 
  (10.5S/91.5E), which was actually inside the warning AOR of BoM Perth.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical Storm
  Bernard.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)

  *************************************************************************

  NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E

  Activity for November:  1 tropical cyclone

  
                          Sources of Information
                          ----------------------

     The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
  Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are 
  the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
  Centres at Perth, Western Australia, Darwin, Northern Territory,
  and less frequently, by the centre at Jakarta, Indonesia. 
  References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
  unless otherwise stated.

     In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
  annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
  Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
  Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
  dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more.  The JTWC warnings are also the
  source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
  in the tracks file.   Additionally, information describing details of
  satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
  the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.


                 Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
                       Tropical Activity for November
                 ------------------------------------------
     The tropical cyclone season in the Australian Region got off to a
  fairly early start with the formation of Tropical Cyclone Anika in the
  Southeast Indian Ocean.  The first cyclone in this region appears as
  early as November in about one year in three.  Anika was the first
  cyclone to be named from the new, consolidated list of names established
  by BoM beginning with the 2008-2009 season.   Instead of each warning
  centre (Perth, Darwin, Brisbane) having its own list of names, all
  tropical cyclones will be named sequentially from one list, regardless
  of whose AOR the system forms in.  Five alphabetical sets with a total
  of 104 names (four sets of 21 names, one set of 20 names) have been
  approved, and based on the annual average for the past decade or so,
  about 10-11 years will be required to cycle through the entire list once.
  (The 21st name in the final set was omitted in order to maintain the
  alternating male/female scheme.)  A short report on Anika follows.



                          TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
                                 (TC-02S)
                             19 - 21 November
                ------------------------------------------

     An area of convection developed and persisted on 18 November roughly
  410 nm northeast of the Cocos Islands, near 9.0S/90.8E.  An elongated
  but consolidating LLCC lay equatorward of an upper-level ridge axis
  in an area of favorable poleward and westward diffluence aloft.  As the
  day progressed the disturbance began to develop rapidly.  At 18/0930 UTC
  JTWC issued a TCFA for the system.  According to Wikipedia, the Jakarta,
  Indonesia, TCWC classified the system as a tropical depression on the
  18th.  JTWC issued their first warning on Tropical Cyclone 02S at
  18/1800 UTC with the center located approximately 185 nm north-northwest
  of the Cocos Islands and moving east-southeastward at 12 kts.

     By 0000 UTC on 19 November, the developing LOW had entered Perth's
  AOR and was promptly named Tropical Cyclone Anika with 40-kt winds.
  Anika was located about 140 nm north-northwest of the Cocos Islands and
  was moving slightly south of due east at 16 kts.  The cyclone was being
  guided by a 700-mb equatorial ridge and a trough approaching from the
  west-southwest.  Anika reached its peak intensity of 50 kts at 0000 UTC
  on 20 November while located about 290 nm west-southwest of Christmas
  Island.  The storm maintained its 50-kt intensity through 20/1200 UTC
  per both Perth and JTWC, but shear from the approaching trough began
  to increase quickly and Anika began to rapidly fall apart.  JTWC issued
  their final warning at 20/1800 UTC, and Perth reduced Anika to below
  gale force at 21/0000 UTC with the LOW located about 325 nm south-
  southeast of Christmas Island.

     No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Tropical
  Cyclone Anika.

  (Report written by Gary Padgett)
                   
  *************************************************************************

  NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones

  *************************************************************************

  SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E

  Activity for November:  No tropical cyclones
                       
  *************************************************************************

         SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

     The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
  varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived.  Many readers
  will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
  I wanted to include them. 

  (1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
  ---------------------------------------

     Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
  retrieved from the following FTP site:

     ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>

     Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
  messages may be found at the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>

  Links are also included to websites with further information about the
  U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
  craft Operations Center.

  (2) Archived Advisories
  -----------------------

     All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
  strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
  are archived on TPC's website.  For the current year (using 2004 as an
  example), the archived products can be found at:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>

  Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
  the following URL:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>

  JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterrey website:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.

     I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
  its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
  if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.

  (3) Satellite Imagery
  ---------------------

     Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
  available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
  courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates.  The
  links are:

     http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>

     http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>

  On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left 
  corner of the screen.  For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is 
  located in the lower left portion of the screen.

     Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
  composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
  equator, can be found at:

  (1) For the Eastern North Pacific:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>

  (2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:

     http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>

  (4) Cyclone Tracking Information
  --------------------------------

     There is a U. S. Navy site that tracks tropical cyclones at 6-hourly
  intervals which often includes pre and post-advisory positions.  The
  link to the site is:

  http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/doc_archives/>

     Steve Young has compiled many of these tracks onto a single webpage
  which is very user-friendly:

  http://home.earthlink.net/~shy9/tc1.htm>


     I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
  as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.

  *************************************************************************

                               EXTRA FEATURE

     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
  summary.  I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
  order to help keep them from being too long.  If anyone would like to
  receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
  to send them a copy.

  *************************************************************************

  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.

    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  from the archive sites listed below.  (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
  distribution list for the track files.    If anyone wishes to receive
  these via e-mail, please send me a message.)

    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.

     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, and
  Chris Landsea):

    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>
    ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
    

                    TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE

     JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
  Report (ATCR) for 2007 (2006-2007 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
  ATCRs for earlier years are available also.

     The URL is:  http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php>

     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 2007 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2007 Atlantic
  and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
  track charts and reports on storms from earlier years. 

     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>


     A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
  Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.


  PREPARED BY

  Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  garyp@alaweb.com
  Phone:  334-222-5327

  Kevin Boyle  (Northwest Pacific)
  E-mail:  newchapelobservatory@btinternet.com

  *************************************************************************
  *************************************************************************

Document: summ0811.htm
Updated: 3 February 2009

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