[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DIANNE
[Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DIANNE [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20110215 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 113.8E TO 24.2S 108.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S
113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
A 142135Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES OUTLINE A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-25
KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE OUTER RIM. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING
ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS ID UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.1S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.2S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.2S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.5S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.4S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 111.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 152238Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
APRF, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR TAU 36, A STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW TC 16S TO TRACK
POLEWARD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW INTO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 96, LOWER SST'S AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD, BUT GENERALLY TRACK THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. ECMWF IS THE WESTERLY OUTLIER AND GFS TRACKS THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 150221Z FEB 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150230) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.0S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.2S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.1S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.4S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 111.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TC HAS BEEN NAMED DIANNE BY TCWC
PERTH. DIANNE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WHILE MODESTLY INTENSIFYING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF, WHICH INDICATE A 35
TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS DETERMINED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A 161111Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE TC WILL LIKELY MEANDER OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG STEERING
MECHANISM. BEYOND 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TRANSITING
THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CYCLONE NEAR DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST, THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD. ALL THE WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 72. THEREAFTER
DIANNE WILL WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE WATER
COOLS. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL, AND
INITIALLY SLOW, POLEWARD TRACK. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES NOT
SWING THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE
LATER FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.3S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.1S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 25.1S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.5S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 34.7S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DIANNE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND APRF, WHICH INDICATE A 35 TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
POSITION WAS DETERMINED FROM A 16/2246Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTING SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. DIANNE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
STEERING MECHANISM. BEYOND 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TRANSITING
THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDES. ONCE THIS TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CYCLONE, THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TRACK THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN HIGH UNTIL TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, DIANNE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS
RAPIDLY DROP-OFF BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GENERAL, AND INITIALLY SLOW, POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU
48, MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.9S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.5S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.6S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 171059Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS A 171217Z AMSU IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGES AND HAS, CONSEQUENTLY, TRACKED ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL, TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
WITH THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (UKMO, NOGAPS, ECMWF, GFDN, GFS,
JGSM AND WBAR) IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36-48 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMO, WBAR AND JGSM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
COOLER SST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.3S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.3S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.9S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 28.5S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.4S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 180006Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MICROWAVE
EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. TC 16S IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGES CAUSING
SLOW MOVEMENT POLEWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SLOW
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED , ALLOWING THE
STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. NEAR TAU 120, AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD
AGAIN. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER TAU 48, AS THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 16S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72
AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SSTS. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
(ECMWF, EGRR, NGPS, GFDN, AND GFS) SHIFTING WESTWARD, BUT REMAINS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.7S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.9S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.5S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.3S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.3S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 36.0S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 108.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
181115Z CORIOLIS 37H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES
AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TRACK SPEED IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THIS
RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36 AND
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING
PATTERN, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS
BETWEEN TAU 12-72. MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WITH
INCREASING SPREAD AND SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IMPROVES AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD TRACK FORECAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH. TC 16S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SST AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. BY TAU 72-
96, TC 16S SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL.
DIANNE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED AND WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.2S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.8S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.4S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.3S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.6S 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 32.5S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 107.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182112Z SSMI PASS CONFIRMS
INCREASED ORGANIZING, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTION BANDING AND
A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-
NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
AUSTRALIA. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 16S TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A SECOND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S AND
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 72 ANOTHER MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING POLEWARD RECURVATURE. PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, PASSAGE OVER
SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER AND RESTRICTION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCE BY TAU
72 AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDLATITUDES, AND PASSES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE BY TAU 120. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 108.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 108.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.2S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.8S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.4S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.3S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.6S 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 32.5S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 107.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182112Z SSMI PASS CONFIRMS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTION BANDING
AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED
ON RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
AUSTRALIA. AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH
OF TC 16S TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, A SECOND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TC 16S AND
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 72 ANOTHER MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, INDUCING POLEWARD RECURVATURE. PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW TC 16S TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, PASSAGE OVER
SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER AND RESTRICTION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND
WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCE BY TAU
72 AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDLATITUDES, AND PASSES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE BY TAU 120. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 107.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 107.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.7S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.7S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.0S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.8S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 35.7S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A 20 NM EYE, BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT VANISHED NEAR THE CENTER. LIKELY THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS TOO VIGOROUS. THE TC IS FAST-APPROACHING
COOLER WATERS, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY VERY LOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE TC IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD BACK SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, PROMOTING A MORE WEST OF SOUTH TRACK UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY RELAX. THIS
NEXT TROUGH WILL INCITE POLEWARD ACCELERATION AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72. THIS TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY DUE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
SECOND TROUGH AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND
201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.7S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.4S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.6S 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.4S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 107.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRY
AIR STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS ALREADY TRACKING OVER COOLER SSTS AND LOW OHC WHICH HAS
PROMOTED THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND. THESE FACTORS ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY FROM THE 19/12Z
WARNING. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
36 AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
SSTS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.0S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.0S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.6S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.5S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 105.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DIANNE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
DIANNE'S EYE IS QUICKLY FILLING AND ENLARGING AS SURROUNDING CLOUD
TOPS WARM. IN FACT, VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. NONETHELESS
THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE
IS AT LEAST 65 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ELEVATE ALONG TRACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 104.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 104.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.2S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.4S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.9S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 103.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A
202039Z TRMM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0/4.5 FROM APRF AND 3.5/4.5
FROM PGTW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEARD AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU
36. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 102.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 102.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 28.5S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 102.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211147Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING, ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE LATEST FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW AND ABRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER COOL SST WHILE DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20110222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 28.5S 102.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 102.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 102.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME THREE REPORTING AGENCIES.
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE
CAUSED TC 16S TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT
TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 12 AS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_dianne.htm | Updated: 23 February 2011 |