Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone TASHA [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]

WTPS21 PGTW 20101224 16:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 147.4E TO 18.8S 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 29 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 241530Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 147.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
149.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241021Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM ARLINGTON REEF, JUST WEST OF THE CENTER, AND A 241117Z ASCAT
IMAGE SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30-35 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR
998 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 251600Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20101224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241551ZDEC2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 18.7S 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 20.6S 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 145.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (TASHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS
WELL AS CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY AND A 241533Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ARLINGTON REEF, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE 24/18Z POSITION, AND A 241117Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORT
PEAK SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 37 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP
OF 994 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR AND
TRMM IMAGERY. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL, AS A 35-45 KNOT SYSTEM, SOUTH OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS
THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241551Z DEC
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 241600). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20101225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (TASHA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 144.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 144.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 21.7S 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 143.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (TASHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TASHA CAME ASHORE SOUTH OF CAIRNS
AROUND 24/18Z. THEREAFTER THE TC HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE INTERIOR OF
QUEENSLAND IN EXCESS OF 15 KNOTS. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35
KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//