[Index]
Tropical Cyclone VANIA
[Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone VANIA [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20110111 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102130Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A
POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING
IT TO A MINIMUM 35-KT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. DUE TO THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
110200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.2S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.6S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.2S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.9S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.9S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.8S 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 168.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NE OF
NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF.
AN 111003Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 60-KT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110151Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.5S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.0S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.7S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.0S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.5S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 169.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NE
OF NOUMEA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY IS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, WITH INTENSITY BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES, PGTW AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO THE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONFLICTING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ERRATICALLY,
IF AT ALL. AFTER TAU 24 THE STR WILL START TO WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY RECURVING AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE IS VARIANCE IN THE ULTIMATE
EAST/WEST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH GFDN BRINGING THE SYSTEM WEST
OF NEW CALEDONIA, GFS AND EGRR BRINGING IT EAST, AND CONSENSUS,
NOGAPS AND WBAR IN THE MIDDLE. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY APPROXIMATES
THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 168.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 168.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.4S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NE
OF NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121717Z 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF TC 05P, WHILE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE OUTFLOW
ENHANCING FEATURES HAVE ENABLED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY
THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TC 05P IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN A GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC VANIA IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
VERY EASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY SPEED UP AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT, TO INCLUDE GFDN, WHICH HAS STEADILY SHIFTED TO THE EAST.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 167.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 167.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.7S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.0S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.7S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.1S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.2S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 167.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 130659Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 05P, WITH
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, PHFO, AND KNES. TC 05P
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS INDICATING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN 27-29
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS BUT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 72 AND TRANSITION TO A HIGH-
GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110113 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.2S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.6S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 167.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131814Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO DUE TO THE
OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
SKIRT THE EASTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
SST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND BECOME A GALE
FORCE LOW BY TAU 72; HOWEVER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ET. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 166.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 166.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.1S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.2S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.9S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.8S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 166.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 140259Z AMSRE 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF SYSTEM CONVECTION IS NOW IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THERE IS SOME SUBSIDENCE ACTING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
ACT AS A STEERING INFLUENCE ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 25 DEGREES
SOUTH LATITUDE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ABRF. TC 05P WILL MOVE INTO SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WATERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL26 TO 28 DEGREEES CELSIUS. THE EFFECTS OF
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE MILD
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM OVER THE SHORT TERM. AFTER TAU 24, THE
EFFECTS OF THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE DE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TURNING THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHEASTW BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES LATITUDE. TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSTANT RATE OF MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AND CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. TC 05P WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET)
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72; HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY ACT TO
DISSIPATE THE STORM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 24.8S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.7S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.8S 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 167.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141354Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS WAS
BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 985MB FROM
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST
OF TC 05P CAUSING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT. TC 05P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ULTIMATELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AROUND TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY ACT TO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ET TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20110115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 26.3S 166.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 166.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 29.7S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 165.9E.
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) O5P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER TROPICAL
AND HAS SUBTROPICAL JET SUPPORT. IT IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE TROPICS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_vania.htm | Updated: 16 January 2011 |