[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ZELIA
[Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ZELIA [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS21 PGTW 20110113 10:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 14.0S 149.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 130356Z AMSR-E
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES AN
ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC WHICH HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE-DERIVED SST
RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE 24 HR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 03 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110114 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130951JAN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 150.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 150.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.1S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 36.2S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU
12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
72, BUT MAY INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 130951Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110114 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.2S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.7S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.3S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 35.3S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 152.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 140811Z 37GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE
WITH THICK AND WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS
BY PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL
OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST 12 HRS. SSTS ARE 29-31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15
KNOTS). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BEFORE
BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
(VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110115 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 152.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 152.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.9S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.9S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.3S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.1S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.6S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 152.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 141941Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION WAS INTERPOLATED FROM THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WAS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND ABRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE GOOD MICROWAVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE HIGH (APPROXIMATELY 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC
07P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, LOWER
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TC
ZELIA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOME FULLY
ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110115 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 152.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 152.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.2S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.2S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.4S 162.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 38.2S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER MAINTAINING 55 KNOTS FOR THE
PAST DAY THE CYCLONE HAS NOW BEGUN TO INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND ABRF. A 150753Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR
CUT MICROWAVE EYE AND SHEDS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 12Z
POSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN
FAVORABLE WATERS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF EX TC 05P IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 30S AND COMPLETE TO THE WEST OF NEW
ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
(VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110116 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 156.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 156.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.9S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.1S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.6S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 157.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS STORM HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY, AND THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES. A 160001Z
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINITIVE EYE, WHICH GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z POSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF 26-28C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK, AND THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 30S AND BECOME COMPLETELY
EXTRATROPICAL NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND IN A REGION OF UNFAVORABLE
(23-25C) SSTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110116 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.6S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.1S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.9S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ZELIA CONTINUES
TO RACE DOWN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A MODIFIED HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
AS A MIDGET CYCLONE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED A 5.0 DVORAK EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE EYE HAS MORE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO FILL AND ENLARGE, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHORT TERM
WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTION CYCLES. AFTER TAU 12 SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL NO LONGER SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION AND THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL REST JUST SHY OF 30.0S
AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ZELIA WILL BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.8S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 30.3S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 36.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ZELIA HAS INCREASED IN SPEED AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK DOWN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A MODIFIED HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN AS A MIDGET CYCLONE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A 4.0/4.5 DVORAK EMBEDDED CENTER FIX
FROM PGTW. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 12,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNFAVORABLE, AND ZELIA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN
EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12,
AND ZELIA WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 35.9S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 170.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE ITS LATITUDE AND COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ZELIA MAINTAINS MOST OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD IN THE MOIST WAKE
(VERIFIED BY CIMMS TPW) OF THE FORMER TC 05P. A 06Z CIRA AMSU RADIAL
CROSS SECTION INDICATES A WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ALOFT, CONFIRMING
THE SYSTEM IS STILL TROPICAL. BECAUSE OF WHICH ZELIA DOES NOT MEET
THE JTWC CRITERIA FOR A FINAL WARNING AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEPLETING NEAR THE CENTER, AND AS A RESULT THE
LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW HAS DROPPED TO A 3.0/4.0
OR 45 TO 65 KNOTS. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF
THESE TWO VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION OFFSHORE
OF NEW ZEALAND WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 24 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 33.3S 169.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.3S 169.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 39.6S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 34.9S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED BUT
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY
DECAYING AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE EAST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 07P IS LOCATED
UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TC
07P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER COLD SST (20-22C) AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24
FEET.//
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_zelia.htm | Updated: 18 January 2011 |