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![]() Tropical Cyclone 201502 Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20141128 05:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270721NOV2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 63.8E TO 16.9S 59.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 63.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 64.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 568 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280000Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND INTO THE DEFINED CENTER. AN OLDER ASCAT PASS 271748Z SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290500Z. ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141128 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 61.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 61.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.1S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.9S 59.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.6S 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.5S 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 22.2S 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 61.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281235Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MODIFIED STR DUE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48, HINDERING THE SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 280451Z NOV 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141129 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.5S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.7S 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.7S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.1S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 28.2S 62.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH BROAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 282348Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONTINUED TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48, HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DUE TO A PREVIOUS OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141129 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 60.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 60.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.8S 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 60.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD OF THE CENTER. A 291121Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 290124Z WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATES ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD WHILE WEAKENING. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET.//
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Document: tropical_cyclone_201502.htm | Updated: 1 December 2014 |