Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
![]() Tropical Cyclone ADJALI Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20141116 13:30z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 66.2E TO 11.9S 68.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 161008 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171330Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141116 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161321ZNOV2014// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 66.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 66.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 9.7S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 11.1S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.3S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.5S 68.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.8S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.1S 65.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.4S 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 66.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AS INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 161635Z METOP-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND REFLECT THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS MITIGATED BY THE STORMS MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC ADJALI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL A REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR MADAGASCAR, EXTENDS WESTWARD AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LA REUNION AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36-48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONCURRENT WITH THE CHANGE IN STEERING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A WIDE SPREAD BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141117 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 67.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 67.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 10.3S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.4S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.4S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.3S 67.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.6S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.1S 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.7S 59.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 67.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHT, CLOUD FILLED, EYE FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER (170113Z) SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REVEAL A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRENGTHENING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS MITIGATED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AS TC ADJALI SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR MADAGASCAR WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH. WHILE THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM, EXPECT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS LA REUNION DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, STARTING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141117 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 68.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 68.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 10.5S 69.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 11.6S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.0S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.9S 69.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.4S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.5S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 68.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED. A RECENT 171702Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE LLCC WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE RECENT DECREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSIST; HOWEVER, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING THE OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY PROPAGATED FURTHER WEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OUTFLOW CAN BE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE NER DRIVES TC 01S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND EVENTUALLY TRACK THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTLFOW. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. HWRF AND EGRR REMAIN OUTLIERS AS THEY SHOW A MUCH FASTER WEAKENING TREND AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT WEST AFTER TAU 36. CONSIDERING THIS SPREAD, THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS MOVED THE TRACK FURTHER EAST DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION. OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141118 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 69.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 69.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.0S 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.1S 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.4S 70.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.4S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.0S 62.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 70.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING AN 180459Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE DECREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DOMINATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINAL VWS, THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERNS OF THE NER AND STR IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSED TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141118 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 70.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 70.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.5S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.1S 69.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.7S 68.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.7S 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 70.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS WEAKENED. AN 181737Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DECREASE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND ASYMMETRIC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO DECREASE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT DAY, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141119 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 70.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 70.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.5S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.2S 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.7S 68.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.2S 66.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.8S 62.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180439Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND DOMINATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND LIMITED OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERNS OF NER AND STR IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141119 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 70.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 70.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.9S 69.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 69.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS IT BECAME SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE RAPID WEAKENING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INTO STRONGER (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND DEFLECTED THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS REVERSED STORM MOTION IS NOW IN CONTRAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND HAS EXACERBATED THE VWS. IN VIEW OF THIS, TC ADJALI IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.//
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy] | |
Document: tropical_cyclone_adjali.htm | Updated: 21 November 2014 |