Tropical
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![]() Tropical Cyclone KATE Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTXS21 PGTW 20141223 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231651Z DEC 14// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 231700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 100.3E TO 11.3S 97.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 232030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 100.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 100.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 100.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 231528Z METOP-B 89 GHZ DEPICTS AN AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 231437Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 242100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 159.0W.// ========================================================================= WTXS21 PGTW 20141224 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUE// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232051Z DEC 14// REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241651Z DEC 14// NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 232100). REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 241700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 98.3E TO 13.6S 94.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 97.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 100.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 97.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 241915Z N-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE LLLC. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKLY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252100Z. 4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 158.4W// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141225 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 97.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 97.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 11.8S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 12.0S 95.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 12.5S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.2S 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 14.8S 93.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.9S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.4S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 97.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TS) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 242338Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). TS 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TIMOR SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WITH LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXPECT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK FOR TS KATE IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141225 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 96.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 96.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 12.8S 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.2S 95.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.6S 94.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 14.0S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.7S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.8S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.6S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 96.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 251006Z 37V SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY CAUSING THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT GREATLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN VIEW OF THE BIG SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 94.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 94.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 12.7S 93.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 13.0S 93.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 13.5S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 14.0S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.0S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.7S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 18.9S 85.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 94.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 252229Z N-19 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST. IN SPITE OF THE VWS, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE OVERALL CONVECTION. TC KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYERED HIGH FEATURE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED ABOVE THE INVESTIGATION RIDGE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND STRENGTHEN, TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VWS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT (TYPHOON STRENGTH) INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH INCREASING DISPARITY BEYOND THAT. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 94.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 94.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 12.7S 93.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 13.2S 92.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 13.6S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.1S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.1S 90.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.1S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.4S 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 94.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ON A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 261107Z AMSU-B PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE OVERALL CONVECTION. TC KATE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 24, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141226 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 94.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 94.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 13.2S 93.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.9S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.6S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.3S 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 17.0S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 19.3S 89.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 23.2S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 93.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 45 KNOTS AT 25/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WARNING, ISSUED OFF- CYCLE, REFLECTS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A 5-NM EYE. IN CONTRAST, A 261513Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS A WEAK STR BUILDS TEMPORARILY; HOWEVER, A DEEP, BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A RE-CURVE IN THE LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AND GFDN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE COMPLEX STR / TROUGH EVOLUTION. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO MARGINAL SST NEAR 26C, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, THEREFORE, TC 04S IS STILL FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141227 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 93.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 93.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.7S 93.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.3S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.1S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.0S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 18.4S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 21.2S 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 23.2S 86.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 93.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, A 270710Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CORE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO THIN AS INCREASED SHEAR BEGINS TO PRESS UPON THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EYE FEATURE HAS REMAINED DEFINED. THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 105 KNOTS BASED UPON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES WITH ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ARE OFFSET BY THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC KATE IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTIPLE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH TAU 48 AS A BUILDING DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT VWS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM, TC 04S IS NOT EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS OUTFLOW LESSENS, VWS FURTHER INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL. AFTER TAU 48, WORSENING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, IS FAIRLY SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS TRACKS RANGE FROM DUE SOUTH TO MORE SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141227 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 93.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 93.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 13.8S 92.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.4S 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.4S 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.6S 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 19.1S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 21.6S 87.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 93.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 271826Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE GMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL-T (4.5) AND CURRENT INTENSITY (5.0 TO 5.5) ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AND COAMPS-TC THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE COMPLEX STR / TROUGH EVOLUTION. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SST NEAR 26C, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, THEREFORE, TC 04S IS STILL FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141228 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 92.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 92.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 14.3S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.2S 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.3S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.5S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 20.0S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 92.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PULSATING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280542Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED SEVERAL SMALL TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN EYE FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN SIZE. A 280230Z ASCAT PASS WAS UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELD OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS SATELLITE DATA, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS THE LAST INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS RE-EVALUATED AND INCREASED UP TO 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TC KATE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECEASING OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141228 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 92.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 92.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.3S 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.3S 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.5S 89.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.7S 88.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.8S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 92.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281524Z METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC KATE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG A WEAK WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC KATE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH RE-ORIENTS DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A LOW- LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SSTS (LESS THAN 25C) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE STR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141229 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 91.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 91.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.6S 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.7S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 17.9S 88.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.2S 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 91.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE AN EYE FEATURE IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP. A 290435Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALED A WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE WITH GOOD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EYE FEATURE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS THIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE PASS AND MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED UPON AN EVALUATION OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECREASING ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC KATE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. TC KATE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT DAY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO DECREASE. FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A FASTER WEAKENING PROCESS AFTER TAU 24 WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHT SPREAD AS EGRR AND COAMPS-TC REMAIN THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141229 21:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 91.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 91.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.8S 90.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.1S 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 19.4S 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 20.7S 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 23.3S 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 90.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A 10 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IMPROVED UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141230 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 17.5S 89.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 18.8S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.1S 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.4S 84.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 24.0S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.6S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 90.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1199 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVED SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 5 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S HAS MOVED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN INCREASE OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TC 04S TO INTENSITY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TRENDS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 04S WARNING CYCLE HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO REFLECT A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141230 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 89.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 89.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.2S 87.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.5S 85.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.0S 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 23.4S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 25.8S 80.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 28.0S 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 89.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH= WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A 5-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FIMP, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR LENDING AN OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141231 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 87.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 87.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.2S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.0S 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 24.6S 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 26.5S 82.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 87.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE AND WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION. A 301952Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT REMAINS ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER DECAY THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20141231 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (KATE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 86.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 86.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 22.0S 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 85.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM SOUTH- WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS UNRAVELED AND BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS GREATLY ERODED AND SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND WILL CAUSE TC KATE TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kate.htm | Updated: 19 January 2015 |