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![]() Tropical Cyclone RAQUEL Southern Hemisphere Summary |
WTPS21 PGTW 20150630 02:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.9S 161.1E TO 5.9S 157.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. ALSO A RECENT (292226Z) METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A SOLID LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 010200Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150630 15:00z AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJUN2015// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 160.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 160.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 6.5S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 7.4S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 8.4S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 8.9S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 10.2S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 12.1S 160.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 13.3S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 159.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP ALONG WITH SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 25P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS VWS INCREASES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE STR, DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. LAND INTERACTION AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOLOMON ISLAND WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300151ZJUN2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300200). JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: CHANGED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 30 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 6.4S 159.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 159.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 7.0S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 7.5S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 7.9S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 8.3S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 9.0S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 10.6S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.1S 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 6.5S 158.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A 302022Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A STR. AS THE STR TRACKS TO THE EAST, TC RAQUEL WILL BEING TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AS THE STR REGENERATES AND FILLS IN TO THE WEST, EXPECT TC 25P TO TRACK TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY. AS TC RAQUEL TRACKS SOUTH OF 10 DEGREES SOUTH, EXPECT VWS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO DECAY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE THIS SYSTEM BEING A CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALY. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST RACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 09:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBORL HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 6.5S 159.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 6.5S 159.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 7.0S 158.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 7.5S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 8.0S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 8.3S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.1S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.4S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.0S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 6.6S 158.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 791 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 010611Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC RAQUEL IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TC 25P. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 7.1S 158.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S 158.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 7.5S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 7.8S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 8.2S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 8.5S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 9.4S 157.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 10.7S 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.4S 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 158.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150701 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 7.2S 158.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 158.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 7.5S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 7.8S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 8.2S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 8.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.6S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 10.9S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.7S 150.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 7.3S 158.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 6.7S 159.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 159.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 6.2S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 6.5S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 7.3S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 7.9S 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.1S 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 6.6S 159.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 6.4S 160.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S 160.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 6.2S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 6.7S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 7.7S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 8.2S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 9.3S 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 160.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EASTNORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150702 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 6.3S 160.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S 160.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 6.9S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 7.4S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 8.0S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 8.8S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 10.3S 154.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 6.4S 160.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823 NM EASRNORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150703 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 6.7S 160.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S 160.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 7.3S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 8.3S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 9.5S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.8S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 160.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1067 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150703 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 8.7S 160.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 160.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 9.8S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 11.1S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.1S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 159.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z. ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20150704 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 011 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 9.0S 159.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S 159.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 10.5S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 159.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (RAQUEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_raquel.htm | Updated: 27 July 2015 |