Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => General Weather - all topics not current severe weather. => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 25 April 2009, 11:07:10 AM
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Browsing through 9 MSN I came across this article regarding autumn and the beginning of winter,( posted below from their site), it will be of interset to keep a tab on how accurate their predictions turn out. Brisbane is cooling a little, but we have a hot weekend ahead with 31C for Saturday and Sunday (25 & 26 April 09) then back to 26 - 27C for the rest of the week. It has been a long hot summer. I was expecting a rather cold winter this year so lets see.
The article is titled:
{[Warm autumn, winter on the way
15:37 AEST Fri Apr 24 2009
By Cathy Alexander
Leave the doona in the cupboard - mild weather is on the way for autumn and winter.
The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an Indian summer, with warm nights for almost all the country from May to July.
Balmy weather in the Indian Ocean is responsible for the winter reprieve.
Queenslanders can leave their heaters off - nights are tipped to be much warmer than average.
Only Victoria will miss out on the mild nights. Temperatures are tipped to be average or a little cooler.
When it comes to rain there's good news for struggling farmers in the country's north - the heavens are set to open.
The bureau has forecast wet weather for northern NSW, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Elsewhere the rain gauges are tipped to receive about the normal amount of rain for the time of year.}]
I think the retailers are hoping this is wrong, for the first time in a long time, our clothes stores in Brisbane seem to be full of proper winter clothes, I think they were caught out last year with the cold snap we had. It felt like it was one of the coldest winters that I can recall for some years.
However we do need the rain, parts of South West QLD are still drought affected, and in SEQ we have not reached 60% combined dam levels so we are technically still in a drought. We are somewhere around 59.05 % approx. So close to having the drought offically over.
So it can be good news if you hate the cold, or bad news if you like to rug up and enjoy the cold nights.
Cheers
Col
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So far it looks as if the prediction is a little of the mark, Brisbane is just about to have its first taste of wintry nights, still very nice day time temps. Vic, SA, TAS and parts of NSW have had a wintry day with cold wind, rain and snow in the alpines.(26/04/09).
Below is BOMS forecast for Brisbane
Forecast for Monday
Fine. Moderate W/SW winds.
Precis: Fine.
City: Min 12 Max 27
Bayside: Min 14 Max 27
UV Alert: 9:20 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]
Tuesday Fine, cool early. Min 10 Max 25
Wednesday Fine, cool early. Min 10 Max 25
Thursday Fine. Min 12 Max 26
Friday Fine Min 12 Max 26
Saturday Fine Min 12 Max 25
Sunday Fine Min 13 Max 26
See what else happens.
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Yes, going to be going down to 5 here in western Sydney by midweek. A nice wintry blast! Where's global warming when we need it :-)
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In VIC, it is tipped to be below-average rainfall, but if the recent cold snap in play is anything to go by, then I'm going to be the skeptic in this one - It WILL be colder here. Early cold snaps usually bring bitter winters here - trends noted.
Big Pete
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From latest news reports they are expected an exceptional snow season this year. Reports are saying that there is between 30 & 40 cm of snow cover on some resorts in VIC and NSW, six weeks prior to the official season. More snow is predicted to fall over the next 3 - 4 days in VIC, TAS and NSW.
I think you are in for a cold winter, like you were saying Big Pete. And I still think the same goes for NSW, SA & south east QLD.
Looking at the Brisbane BOM stats for Tuesday 28th of April 09, the Airport had a minumin of 8.2 C at 5.39 am this morning,
West of Brisbane, Amberley had 4.5C at 6.13 am and Oakey 2.5C at 6.21am
and north at Maroochydore, 8.5C at 5.54am.
I think that is the ironic or cruel twist in global warming, according to many experts it causes many parts of the world to freeze, NT is looking good !
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Col wrote:
Browsing through 9 MSN I came across this article regarding autumn and the beginning of winter
It crossed my mind that a warmer winter is on the way. Cold outbreaks during the April period even this late in April is definitely unseasonal. I recall Michael Scollay gave a presentation and I discussed this with him it correlates quite well even as a rule of thumb. What happens in reality is another matter.
From latest news reports they are expected an exceptional snow season this year. Reports are saying that there is between 30 & 40 cm of snow cover on some resorts in VIC and NSW, six weeks prior to the official season. More snow is predicted to fall over the next 3 - 4 days in VIC, TAS and NSW.
I think you are in for a cold winter, like you were saying Big Pete.
Not necessarily so. With early snowfall years, I have always noted from years back that the media jump onto the paddy wagon (possibly supported by the links to the ski field operators). When making this assumption about a bumper season, the media have been wrong almost all the time!
Of course, for the sake of the economy, let's hope I, and the Bureau of Meteorology are wrong this time around. I would hate yet another industry (ski industry) to suffer in this recession!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I reckon the people in Charlotte Pass don't believe it. -13.0 overnight, a new Australian record for April.
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Richary,
I will hold you word on that:) Let's see what transpires. Yes it si a cold April outbreak hence my reasoning that historically, most early cold outbreaks and early massive dumps of snow lead to poor snow seasons.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Melbourne recorded the coldest morning in April since 1957. The temps were just below 3C in the city with areas to the east dropping to -2.7C at Coldstream.
Mt Hotham has a record April low of -8.2 C yesterday morning.
Mt Buller is going to be open to skiers on the weekend, this being the earliest start to a season in its 45 year history.
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Hi Jimmy
The comment on Charlotte Pass was more to do with the thread title about a warm autumn/winter than your comments on the snow season :-) Just unfortunate it followed your post. Should have done a quote to make it clearer.
I haven't really followed snowfall patterns but do seem to recall that these bumper starts that have everybody down there pleased often fizzle out.
That said, I hope we get some snowfalls on weekends either out near Oberon or Barrington Tops that I can go 4WDing and get some pics.
Richard
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So far to date in QLD, we have had relatively cool nights, a little lower than average, the dooner was not put away as suggested by the above posted article Warm Autumn/ Winter tipped. We have had the most beautiful clear sunny days, with the exception of I think, Wednesday as announced as having close to record low maximums for this time of year in some of QLD, Thus far we have not had the real rain as predicted.
But how this for a mixed bag of weather for Brisbane for next week as from BOM
Forecast for Friday
Fine.
Precis: Fine.
City: Min 11 Max 25
Bayside: Min 10 Max 25
Saturday Fine. Min 11 Max 27
Sunday Fine. Min 12 Max 25
Monday Shower or two. Min 14 Max 24
Tuesday Few showers. Min 15 Max 23
Wednesday Cloudy, showers. Min 17 Max 21
This should brew a few good flus up.
Reading through the snow forecast for Vic and NSW Alpine areas and the word from BOM for these areas is for snow over the next few days from a cold front moving in from over Bass Strait. (http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://weather.ski.com.au/data/sat_aus_latest.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ski.com.au/weather/&h=576&w=720&sz=72&tbnid=XIDocjKiu9Y8hM::&tbnh=112&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3DAUS%2Bsat%2BPIC&hl=en&usg=__wK1DFmdyrs0teihX5S8Z1hVQ130=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image&cd=1 (http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://weather.ski.com.au/data/sat_aus_latest.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ski.com.au/weather/&h=576&w=720&sz=72&tbnid=XIDocjKiu9Y8hM::&tbnh=112&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3DAUS%2Bsat%2BPIC&hl=en&usg=__wK1DFmdyrs0teihX5S8Z1hVQ130=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image&cd=1))
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Coltan,
My reference is for a warmer than average winter - yes the autumn is colder than others I have experienced which leads me even more to an expectation of above average temperatures during the winter months and perhaps some good rainfall events.
I guess time will tell.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I was mainly referring to the reversal of Brisbane temps over the next few nights, they are going to warm up from last nights 8.2C at the airport to 17C which is well above average, and as the nights are warming, the days are cooling down from 27C (on Saturday) to 21C, which suggest the possibility of good cloud cover and maybe rain.
I was hoping for a cold winter to wipe out the flu's, (if that is not a old wives tale), but I know, as Jimmy has stated and from previous experience myself and that of history, cold autumns, usually results in warmer winters. I used to notice that at the start of the State of Origin series, Brisbane would be 5C and Sydney around 13C for opening game. Used to think, great cold winter, but it never eventuated.
I reckon our weather pattern seems to be out of kilter by about a month or so up here in QLD, we had a late start to spring with September/October still pretty cool, (usually September you throw your jumper away and start swimming again,) and then summer just dragged on until about the last week in April before it started to cool down.
Usually it seems whatever the computers forecast, you go the opposite and you get it right, ( just kidding)
Yes only time will tell, and I am not placing any bets for anyone.
Cheers all
Colin
PS late edit
Just looking for articles about flu's due to having one, and came across this one regarding SEQ weather from the Courier Mail
By Leanne Edmistone
May 15, 2009 07:42am
BRISBANE has woken to its coldest day of the year so far with temperatures about 4 degrees below average including a low of 1.8 degree at Amberley at 6.20am.
At the same time, it was 7.4C at Coolangatta, 8.2C at Brisbane Airport and 10.4C in the city.
More weather details
Applethorpe was down to -2.2C, Warwick -0.9C, Oakey 0.7C, Kingaroy 1.4C and Gatton 4C.
Bureau of Meterology senior forecaster Geoff Doueal said a high pressure system pushing dry air across southern Queensland was responsible for the cool change.
How cold was it at your plcae this morning?
"Dry air and clear skies and light winds are all a recipe for having cool nights,'' Mr Doueal said.
But he said the temperatures were by no means the coolest ever recorded: on May 31, 2006, Brisbane Airport recorded just 3C, the city 5C and Ipswich -3.3C.
Mr Doueal said another cold morning could be expected tomorrow before starting to warm up slightly, as showers developed on Monday and Tuesday.
This year's previous coldest mornings was on April 17, when a complex low system over the Coral and Tasman seas sent the mercury between 2C and 5C below average.
On that Friday, Brisbane recorded a low of 15.6C at 5.55am, Amberley 11.3C at 6.02am and Gatton hit 13C at 6am. Coolangatta had a low of 14.8C at 5.04am.
The lowest temperatures in southeast Queensland were at Applethorpe, in the Granite Belt, with 6.5C at 6am and Warwick with 7.7C at 6am.
Temperatures at 6.05am this morning:
Brisbane 10.4C
Brisbane Airport 8.7C
Amberley 2.8C
Cooloongatta 7.9C
Gatton 4C
Jimna 3.6C
Kingaroy 1.4C
Oakey 0.7C
Redcliffe 10.9C
Warwick -0.9C
Toowoomba 9.1C
Cunnamulla 6.5C
Injune 3.7C
Roma 3.9C
Applethorpe -2.2C
Dalby 2.3C
Goondiwindi 4C
Miles 3C
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As regards the forecast from the bureau in the Article from 9msn I posted late in April, I would like to say that, at almost the half way mark, the prediction of
(When it comes to rain there's good news for struggling farmers in the country's north - the heavens are set to open.
The bureau has forecast wet weather for northern NSW, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Elsewhere the rain gauges are tipped to receive about the normal amount of rain for the time of year.}]
BOM has truly been 100% accurate for NE NSW and QLD with the deluge, flooding and storm damage we have received this week (19/05 - 23/05/09).
Unfortunately, the prediction of warm nights in Brisbane has not lived up to the expectation, we have had just below average Mins. with the exception of a couple of nights, due to the rain and cloud cover, being 15-16C. Next week is set to sit around the 10-11C which is just below average for our area at this time of year.
It seems to be a real mixed bag of weather around Australia right now.
Lets see how the end of May and June pan out. Just a pity a little more rain does not make its way down to Vic.
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Today, Saturday 6th June, is thew official opening of the Australian ski season. Although at this stage there is little snow cover, forecasters are predicting cold and wet conditions for most of NSW, with snow developing on the alps from late on Saturday afternoon.
BOM duty forecaster Dimitri Danchuk said, they are expecting snow to develop on the peaks from late Saturday and extending down to 1,300 metres on Sunday," As reported on 9NSM.
Hopefully a good season for them, and hopefully some good snow chasing can be had by those who enjoy doing so. I am looking forward once again to tracking some snow for the girls.
As for Brisbane, we are in for cold nights into the single figures with mild days of 19 - 21C. We didn't recieve the warm nights like it was predicted in April by the BOM in the opening post of this thread.
Plenty of rain and over cast days.
Cheers
Col.
(Edit JD: Have to eliminate any non-permanent links)
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Average temperatures across Sydney for June 2009
A warmer than normal winter has been forecast however when comparing data from nine weather stations across Sydney for June 2009, it has been found that average daytime maximum and minimum temperatures could best be described as "Mixed" for the month. The figures quoted are from the following weather stations (Weatherzone).
Campbelltown.
Dee Why.
Liverpool.
Parramatta.
Penrith.
Prospect (The closest official station to Blacktown where I live).
Richmond.
Sutherland.
Sydney.
Campbelltown
Average max 17.6C. Average min 5.6C (Long term average max - 17.8C. Long term average min - 4.2C)
Hence daily maximum temperatures were slightly below average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Dee Why
Average max 17.9C. Average min 10.3 (Long term average max - 16.9C. Long term average min - 9.3C)
Daily maximum and minimum temperatures were a full 1C above average.
Liverpool
Average max 17.5C. Average min 7.2C (Long term average max - 17.8C. Long term average min - 6.6C)
Hence daily maximum temperatures were slightly below average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Parramatta
Average max 17.8C. Average min 8.1C (Long term average max - 17.8C. Long term average min - 7.4C)
Average maximum temperatures were right on average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Penrith
Average max 17.7C. Average min 7.6C (Long term average max - 18.4C. Long term average min - 6.3C)
Daily maximum temperatures were below average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Prospect
Average max 17.3C. Average min 7.7C (Long term average max - 17.3C. Long term average min - 7.4C)
Daily maximum temperatures were average but the nights were marginally warmer than normal.
Richmond
Average max 17.8C. Average min 6.3C (Long term average max - 18.2C. Long term average min - 4.5C)
Average maximum temperatures were marginally below average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Sutherland
Average max 17.5C. Average min 7.2C (Long term average max - 17.8C. Long term average min - 6.6C)
Average daily temperatures were slightly below average but the nights were warmer than normal.
Sydney
Average max 17.9C. Average min 10.3C (Long term average max - 16.9C. Long term average min - 9.3C)
The maximum and minimum temperatures were a full 1C warmer than normal for this weather station being Observatory Hill.
At the Prospect Weather Station, the daily maximum temperatures for June 2009 were down from that experienced in 2008 (Av max June 2008 - 18.01C and average min for June 2008 - 9.58C).
Hence winter for Sydney has started out "mixed" with respect to average maximum daily temperatures. Some localities experienced a slightly cooler than normal June with respect to maximum daily temperatures while other localities experienced a warmer than normal June.
Generally the nights across Sydney have been above the average for the start of winter.
Harley Pearman
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Reports from Thursday the 2nd July 2009, indicate that the warm winter heat has broken records through out the top end of Australia from WA, NT and QLD.
Gladstone, with a max. of 30C, had its warmest day in July in 49 years of records. Rockhampton in 63 years of records had its hottest July day with a top of 30C.
Charters Towers had 32C, making its warmest July day in 16 years of records.
Mingela was 8C above average breaking a July record with a 30C day, four higher than the previous record in the site's 11-year history.
In the NT, a July record was broken at Centre Island, in the Gulf Country, where it got to 32 in gusty southerly winds.
In the WA Kimberley at Kuri Bay reached 37C, a July record.
During the next few days, dry southerlies will gradually cool down and bring daytime temperatures closer to average. However, nights will become cooler and drop below the norm.
Source: WZ news
Col
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Sydney weather for 6 July 2009
A cold morning for western Sydney and a cool partly cloudy day ensured thereafter. The day had a cool brisk feel to it and the sun had little energy to provide much warmth.
Overnight temperatures in parts of Western Sydney dropped to below 0 degrees Celsius and the 3 pm temperature for Penrith and Richmond struggled to reach 13 degrees Celsius. The 6/7/2009 so far this winter is one of the colder days for the season and the cold morning made it feel like winter.
Maximum and minimum temperatures for some weather stations around Sydney for 6/7/2009 were:-
Suburb 3 pm Temperature Minimum temperature Av max (C) Av min (C)
Badgereys Creek 16 Celsius 0 Celsius 17.4 4.3
Bankstown 15 Celsius 2 Celsius 17.2 5.1
Liverpool 16 Celsius 0 Celsius 17.2 5.1
Parramatta 14 Celsius 5 Celsius 17.3 6.2
Penrith 13 Celsius 1 Celsius 17.8 5.5
Richmond 13 Celsius Minus 1 Celsius 17.5 3.5
Sydney 16 Celsius 6 Celsius 16.2 8
Terrey Hills 14 Celsius 3 Celsius 16.7 6.4
Source (Bom 3 pm weather station readings for 6/7/2009 and Weatherzone average temperature and climatology readings for July (Long term July averages).
The above shows that average minimum and maximum temperatures for the day were generally below average, some more so than others which gave the day a cool brisk feel to it.
Harley Pearman
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this is the northern rivers area a few days ago maybe 4 it reached a beautiful 29C i loved it.
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A warm winters day in Sydney 22/7/2009
On 22 July 2009, maximum and minimum temperatures exceeded the normal averages by a significant amount. In particular, the following occurred at the weather stations across Sydney.
(All figures are from BOM Weather Stations for 22/7/2009)
Badgerys Creek - 25.4C Max and 5.3C Min.
Bankstown - 24.6C Max and 8.4C Min.
Parramatta - 24.6C Max and 12.9C Min.
Penrith - 26.7C Max and 6.5C Min.
Prospect - 24.8C Max and 11.5C Min.
Sydney - 24.7C Max and 11.2C Min.
Terrey Hills - 23C Max and 14C Min.
This was the warmest day so far this winter for Sydney and the warmest July day for many years. The cool change that arrived late afternoon brought an end to this warm spell including some light shower activity.
Harley Pearman
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July 2009 temperatures for Sydney
The month of July saw maximum and minimum temperatures exceed the long term averages as shown at the selected weather stations with data sourced from BOM and Weatherzone - July 2009. Hence July 2009 can easily be summed up as a warmer than normal mid winter month for Sydney.
Location Max temp Min temp Av Max Av min No of days above 20C for July 09
Bankstown 17.8C 5.1C 17.1C 5C 4 days
Campbelltown 17.6C 3.7C 17.2C 2.9C 4 days
Parramatta 18.1C 6.9C 17.3C 6.2C 4 days
Penrith 18.3C 5.4C 17.7C 5.4C 6 days
Richmond 17.9C 4.1C 17.4C 3.4C 5 days
Sydney 18.3C 9.2C 16.3C 8.0C 4 days
Terrey Hills 18.4C 7.6C 16.7C 6.4C 2 days
Harley Pearman
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Run of warm winter days end for Sydney 7/8/2009
The run of mild sunny and even warm winter days for Sydney has come to an end. Starting on Monday 27 July and finishing on Friday 7 August, maximum daily temperatures have reached between 18 and 24C at Blacktown and indeed across much of the Sydney area (BOM Weather Stations). This has been well above the average for July and August.
Indeed maximum temperatures for Friday 7 August 2009 were well above the average for August reaching between 22C and 25C across Sydney.
The run of mild weather came to an end after 4 pm Friday afternoon following the passage of a cloud band and a cold front. No rain occurred at Auburn where I work. The front brought a cooler gusty South West wind change.
Harley Pearman
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Harley
not just for sydney - Melbourne reached a balmy 21deg C yesterday, and plummeted to below 10deg C this afternoon about 1pm from 16 overnight!
Big Pete
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Temperature anomalies for New South Wales for 7 August 2009
I have been reviewing the temperature anomalies for Friday 7 August 2009 and it is noted that across Eastern New South Wales, areas east of the cold change experienced temperature anomalies of between 4C and 6C above the average for August. That includes Sydney. It was a warm day for this time of year.
A stark contrast for areas in southern New South Wales behind the change in which temperature anomalies were between 0C and 2C below the average for August.
The plot generated at the Bureau of Meteorology "Water and the Land" for - Daily Mean Maximum Temperature Anomaly for 7 August 2009 shows the contrast in which one half of the state experienced a colder than normal day while the other half experienced a pleasant warm winters day. It also gives an indication on the nature, strength and impact of the cold front that swept across the state and how it affected the maximum temperatures for the day.
It also shows that Victoria experienced a cold day while it was warmer than normal in Southern Queensland.
Harley Pearman
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Another warm August day for Sydney August 21 2009
August 21 has turned out to be another warm day with maximum peak temperatures being well above the average for the month of August.
Despite the cloud cover at times, maximum temperatures for the city at 3 pm fell between 23 and 27 degrees Celsius across the Sydney metropolitan area. According the the weather stations (BOM daily temperature readings 21/8/09) Terrey Hills was the coolest location on 23C while 25C and 26C was common elsewhere. The highest maximum temperature occurred at Badgereys Creek, Penrith and Richmond where the maximum temperature was close to or in the vicinity of 27C.
Harley Pearman
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Temperatures for August 2009 - Sydney and New South Wales
A summary of maximum and minimum temperatures and temperature anomalies specific to Sydney and New South Wales for August 2009 is provided below. The details below are derived from Weather zone and Bureau of Meteorology data bases for various weather stations and the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water" site.
Sydney
Generally the days were significantly warmer than normal although minimum nightime temperatures varied from being above average near the coastal areas to being closer to average further inland and even below average at Penrith and Richmond. A sample of what happened in Sydney is provided below:-
Location Long term Max Long term Min Av max temp (Aug 09) Av min temp (Aug 09)
Bankstown 18.9C 6C 21.2C 6C
Campbelltown 19C 3.9C 20.9C 4.2C
Parramatta 19C 7.1C 21.7C 7.9C
Penrith 19.7C 6.2C 21.9C 5.5C
Prospect 18.6C 6.8C 21.3C 6.7C
Richmond 19.7C 4.4C 21.3C 4.1C
Sydney 17.8C 8.9C 20.9C 10.4C
Terrey Hills 18.3C 7.1C 19.6C 9.4C
Maximum temperature anomaly - New South Wales
Maximum average temperatures finished up being well above average for many areas of the state. In particular, the following anomalies are observed:-
- Northern inland and North East inland - 4C - 5C above average.
- Sydney and much of the Northern inland - From 2C to 4C above average.
- North Coast - 3C to 4C above average.
- South West - 2C to 3C above average.
- South West slopes and Southern New South Wales - Average to 1C above average. The unusual warmth did not impact this region when compared to other regions.
Minimum temperature anomaly - New South Wales
The minimum temperature anomaly plot shows that average minimum temperatures were closer to average for the state. The exception being the far North West portion where minimum temperatures were 2C to 3C above the average. Many areas experienced minimum temperatures of 0C to 1C above average although a large area being the Hunter Valley, Northern Tablelands, North West Slopes and the Mid North Coast experienced minimum temperatures that were 0C to 1C below average.
Hence it is concluded that while maximum daytime temperatures were generally well above the average for the month across much of the state, night time minimum temperatures were generally closer to the long term average or even slightly below the average.
The relevant plots stated are provided below from the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water" site specific for temperatures.
Harley Pearman