Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => General Weather - all topics not current severe weather. => Topic started by: David C on 19 October 2007, 07:31:25 AM
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Well, after taking a look at GFS out to 14 days, things are not encouraging for severe storms over eastern Australia for the next week or so. The last week of October, however, hints at a pattern shift and things happening with a succession of upper level waves coming through (of course, let's ignore the uncertainty of the models at this range for now).
At the moment (ie today) I see:
(i) 162 hours: Wed 24th. Quite high instability which indicates some likely 'bombs' going up along the ranges.
(ii) 204 hours (hehe) Fri 26th October: A subtle mid-level wave has the potential to kick things off across the east. This little blip is not convincing at this stage, so we'll see over the next few days how GFS and EC deal with it.
(iii) 276 hours (bwahaha) Monday 29th October: a nice short-wave mid- / upper- level trough progged at 276 hours out which rapidly amplifies over the southern ocean, becomes a closed low down off WA and gradually weakens as it tracks east over the weekend. This destabilises things nicely over eastern NSW during Monday. Said system would bring H5 temps down some 6C during Monday, which is good, and the shear introduced by this system during would certainly appear to favour severe storms including supercells. So, the first issue to contend with is whether this feature will persist in subsequent runs and, let's say by the same time next week, see if the timing of the disturbance is good and also whether sufficiently abundant surface moisture are in place.
(iv) 324 hours October 31 - another wave incoming, enough said really.
So the period from Oct 24 - through Oct 31 has some potential as far as interesting weather.
Any other thoughts?
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I had a bit of a look at the 14 days ahead last night and another glace just now to follow your thoughts David. Day 7 onwards certainly holds some potential with more upper troughs. A problem at the moment is the lack of deep low level moisture. Dewpoint is back to 7 even after a southerly yesterday here (which pushed it up to 14 for a while).
Doesn't take long to hang out for more storms even after the week of action we had in this region ;D
MB
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What more can be said - based on the models, the conditions seem to be ready for setups with cold air aloft. If the lower levels co-operate, we could see more ideal conditions. Of course being positive tilt troughs is not all inspiring.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Doesn't take long to hang out for more storms even after the week of action we had in this region ;D
MB
Your appetite for storms is insatiable Michael :)
Oh, of course the latest run looks very different, as expected, so we can scrap the scenario that I dreamed up above...for now! Will have to visit youtube to get my storm kicks.
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Nothing like a good discussion whilst waiting for action to happen, really wets the appetite!
If this mornings run of GFS is to be believed, there is a nice looking cold pool ejecting across the coast near Adelaide on Tuesday 23 Oct, heading across Bourke on Wed, before losing it's strength around Moree/Tenterfield on Thu 24 Oct. There isn't much low level support in NSW as it moves through, however SE QLD looks like it may do alright with a decent mix of moisture and wind shear in the lower levels available more so on Wednesday. GASP seems to be similar in thinking pushing a short wave through Tue/Wed across NSW. At least this upper low is showing up on the 7 day GFS charts rather than the 14day "Gee I wish" charts.
Speaking of 14 day, GFS still seems to be liking option 4 above David ;)
James
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Yes, models are all still hanging in there for next week James -- looking promsiing! There are some hints of a pattern (ie progged meridional flow with upper level waves) that would support a severe weather outbreak but we'll see how other factors pan out.
We had some nice CJs around today, out over the ranges west of Sydney, and these were quite crisp looking before flattening.
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Just checked a few forcasts and Wed through to Friday is looking good for Queensland hopefully some decent storms. I think N.S.W is predicted to see storms from Tuesday, fingers crossed!! I got some nice pics of the last lot of storms that hit the goldcoast and im hanging out for more storm action!
Karina
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By tomorrow where afternoon thunderstorms may occur around central NSW area and throughout. Possible rainband on Thursday aswell along northern NSW towards coastal areas.
Cheers! :)