Severe weather returns to the Southern Plains! Hurricane warning for NC
The same trough of low pressure helping to spare most of the East Coast from the brunt of Hurricane Earl, will result in severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains today, and possibly even tornadoes. Still though, Hurricane Earl will likely lash the Outer Banks of North Carolina with hurricane force winds, hence hurricane warnings are currently in effect for this area. Today is a perfect example of the conflict we face as storm chasers almost every fall, when we have to decide between chasing a recurving hurricane or a potential tornado threat associated with the ejecting trough. This case presents a relatively easy situation, as the eye wall of Hurricane Earl should remain offshore, except when it makes landfall in southwest Nova Scotia, but by then the tropical cyclone will be quickly transitioning to extratropical. Still though, any slight westward deviation from the current forecast track (very similar to the yesterday's track posted below) could mean big problems for the Mid-Atlantic Coast and even New England. On the flip-side, the environment in the Central Plains east of the advancing cold front this afternoon will be characterized by marginal low-level wind shear, decent instability,
and a myriad of outflow boundaries from overnight convection that could aid in tornadogenesis with any isolated supercells. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk and 5% tornado probability from southern South Dakota southward into central Kansas. Now for the current update on the hurricane situation.. Earl is currently churning over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream just east of the Bahamas, with a minimum central pressure of 943 mb and maximum sustained winds estimated at around 110 knots. Based on the current satellite loop, it does look like Hurricane Earl is occasionally being negaitvely impacted by dry air intrusions into the circulation, which is likely the same pool of dry air aloft that prevailed over the entire Central U.S. -- which was responsible for the intense microburst we had in Norman last week. The southern feeder band is also not nearly as robust as the northern side, which is often the case with recurving hurricanes as they are "stretched" between the subtropical anticyclone to the east, and the advancing mid-latitude trough to the west. Still though, Earl remains a major hurricane, and is still very capable of causing significant damage particularly along the North Carolina Outer Banks as the storm ejects off to the north toward the Canadian Maritimes. TVN storm chasers will be in the field this afternoon, so be sure to check out
TornadoVideos.net/live, and stay tuned for further updates!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1269-severe-weather-returns-to-the-southern-plains-hurricane-warning-for-nc
