Topic: Tropical Low WA : from 30 December 2010

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Remarks:

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause gales on Friday but gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.

Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Kuri Bay and Wallal including Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain overnight from Friday into Saturday morning.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley over the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises with local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Name:  Tropical Low

[Colin Maitland]

There is a tropical low presently positioned over northern WA that is expected to form into a Tropical cyclone over the next few days.

The official notice from BoM is:

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.

Stat on the low:

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 126.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

And the track map for the system
 

[Colin Maitland]

latest update from BoM WA has the situation looking a bit edgy for many, it is a matter of watching the 3 systems closely and seeing what eventuates.

BoM update:

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:08pm WST on Friday the 31st of December 2010
Valid until midnight WST Monday   


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for a developing tropical low. See latest
Tropical Cyclone Advice for details. At 11am WST Friday the low was near 16.1S
124.6E, about 325 kilometres northeast of Broome and moving west southwest at 28
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to be close to the west Kimberley coast
on Friday night. On Saturday the low may develop into a tropical cyclone as it
moves offshore towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. By
Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to
move towards the west.               
   
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday    :High
Sunday      :High
Monday      :High

A second low was located near 12.0S 109.2E at 11am WST Friday. It is expected to
drift slowly south and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during
the outlook period.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday  :Low
Sunday    :Low
Monday    :Low

A third low was located near 11.1S 089.9E at 8am WST Friday. It is expected to
move slowly west and remain out of the area.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday  :Very Low
Sunday    :Very Low
Monday    :Very Low