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Author Topic: another cylcone behind Yasi ?  (Read 8313 times)

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Offline Ursula

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another cylcone behind Yasi ?
« on: 04 February 2011, 05:40:40 AM »


on the sat map there is on the Australian boundary another low potential/cyclone spinning ?
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: another cylcone behind Yasi ?
« Reply #1 on: 06 February 2011, 09:18:49 AM »
Nothing for the week ahead apart from potential off the WA coast. The GFS model keeps trying to spin up cyclones in the Coral Sea and perhaps that will happen in 8-10 days time. It's pretty normal for TCs in the Coral Sea this time of year, though most do not maintain a westerly track like Yasi. Re-curvature towards the S and then SE is more common.

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Offline Simon McCombe

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Re: another cylcone behind Yasi ?
« Reply #2 on: 07 February 2011, 02:36:34 PM »
Hi everyone. There is a new tropical disturbance summary,latest today at 2011 UTC from RSMC Nadi TCC.                                                                                                                               TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/0753 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 23.1S 175.4W AT
060600 UTC. TD 10F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN FLANK. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 061400 UTC
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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: another cylcone behind Yasi ?
« Reply #3 on: 08 February 2011, 11:34:09 AM »
Quote from: Simon McCombe on 07 February 2011, 02:36:34 PM
Hi everyone. There is a new tropical disturbance summary,latest today at 2011 UTC from RSMC Nadi TCC.                                                                                                                               TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/0753 UTC 2011 UTC.


This is TC Zaka and it poses no threat at this stage to Australian waters. Last week GFS model looper had this system moving quickly towards New Zealand and current track maps from JTWC support this. As we know TC are unpredictable, but all the steering influences at present will push this storm system south. There is always the small % or chance for it change course.

As Michael said," Nothing for the week ahead apart from potential off the WA coast."  Once again GFS keeps showing a potential TC to form and work its way down the coast. The other models have not come into line with GFS. Still early days.

Cheers

Colin
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