Slight risk for the TX/OK panhandles today! Hurricane Jova to make landfall in Mexico tonight!
Today, there is a slight risk for severe weather for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, and a smaller risk further north from Kansas into Nebraska. The Storm Prediction center has low probabilities for a tornado/hail/wind for the slight risk area shown on the left. The latest RUC analysis (17z) actually shows the greatest potential for diurnal storms into Kansas and Nebraska between 23-0z (6-7 p.m.) where forcing is stronger and the cap is weaker. Forecasted hodographs in west-central Kansas are supportive of supercells with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats--but an isolated tornado around dusk can not be ruled out. Further south into the panhandles, the same is also possible, but storm initiation is still in question due to weaker forcing and mid/high level clouds which could hinder instability potential. Stay tuned, as storm chasers will be providing
live video streams across the area, so be sure to tune in later as things unfold!
Hurricane Jova has weakened some (currently at 100 mph max sustained winds or a Cat 2 hurricane) but is still expected to cause havoc along the pacific coast between Barra de Navidad and Puerto Vallarta late tonight. It could dump as much as 20 inches in some spots in Mexico and could cause significant flooding from the storm surge as well. The map, above, shows the projected path of Hurricane Jova and current warnings for it by the National Hurricane Center.
Stay tuned for more chase reports from last week as October treated a few of us to some great structure and funnels!
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