Topic: Tropical Cyclone Freddy WA: 6 - 10 Feb 2009

[Colin Maitland]

Just going through charts and Sat pics. BOM has  predicted this one for possible Thursday

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 10:39am WDT on Monday the 2nd of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

The monsoon trough remains active across the northern Kimberley. A low is
expected to form over the Kimberley on Monday or Tuesday and then move west off
the northwest Kimberley coast. Once over open waters the low is expected to
develop and may reach tropical cyclone intensity later on Wednesday, or more
likely during Thursday.

See how it goes with this one.
 
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Tuesday   : Low
Wednesday : Moderate
Thursday  : High

[Colin Maitland]

Looks like BOM kept their eye on this one,

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:35 am WDT on Tuesday, 3 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Broome.

At 9:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
455 kilometres east northeast of Broome and
200 kilometres south southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving slowly westwards.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning
and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west
away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or
Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 50 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slowly westwards
.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

[Colin Maitland]

Just the latest to keep track of what is happening, at this stage it looks as if it will just keep moving west, but here  is the official report

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 4 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Broome.

At 3:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
375 kilometres northeast of Broome and
280 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

The low has moved off the west Kimberley coast this morning, and may develop
into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the
coast. Gales are not expected on the coast Wednesday, but may develop during
Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 124.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

[Colin Maitland]

For those keeping a track on WA threat, the latest is

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 9:55 am WDT on Wednesday, 4 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu
to Broome has been cancelled.

At 9:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
255 kilometres north of Broome and
650 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
was moving west at 13 kilometres per hour.

The low has moved off the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move westwards, away from the coast.
Gales are not expected to affect coastal areas over the next few days.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 122.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Looking t he models for these systems, both WA and QLD lows seem to be moving away from the coast. Need to wait and see.

[Colin Maitland]

Looks as if it does form into a TC it will not affect the WA coast much at all, the latest update from BOM is

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:49 am WDT on Thursday 5 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 9 am WDT near 15.9S 118.2E, that is 495 km north
of Port Hedland and 560 km north northeast of Karratha and moving west
southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
The low is located well off the northern WA coast, and is unlikely to approach
the coast. It remains weak, but may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday
or Saturday as it continues to move westwards.
Gales are not expected to affect the WA coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 4 pm WDT.

[Colin Maitland]

After a very long wait, we now have TC Freddy. CAt 1. Does not look to pose any threat to WA coast, unless the weather pattern takes a change.


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:19 am WDT on Saturday 7 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Freddy (Category 1) was located at 3 am WDT near 15.6S 113.3E,
that is 680 km north northwest of Karratha and 710 km north of Exmouth and
moving west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is located well off the northern WA coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the WA mainland.
Gales are not expected to affect the WA coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 am WDT.

[Colin Maitland]

Freddy is still moving away but has intensified to cat 2, it should not affect WA coast.

BOM update

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:36 am WDT on Sunday 8 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

Tropical Cyclone Freddy (Category 2) was located at 9 am WDT near 15.9S 110.4E,
that is 870 km northwest of Karratha and 780 km north northwest of Exmouth and
moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy is located well off the northern WA coast and is
expected to continue to move westwards away from the WA mainland.
Gales are not expected to affect the WA coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 4 pm WDT.