Topic: el Nino cycle for this season.

[Mike]

What are the thoughts of members for this season given Nino is back.  How have your seasons compared with this cycle in your own region as things are usually forecast for less rainfall etc.  Have you found an enhanced or negated period of storm activity over the period this cycle runs?

[Peter J]

Mike,

If the winter is anything to go by down here, then elNino gives us more rain..

Big Pete

[Shaun Galman]

Does it really affect storm cycles dramatically? The last few years have been pretty consistent storm-wise here. I cant really say we've ever had a bad run of storms or weather but we aren't in the prime supercell zone. Maybe there is an effect on that developmental cycle? Last season was very impressive as far as severe storms on the more Eastern zones- Northern Rivers, SE QLD etc. and we did have a fairly decent run once they got started.
 
Is there a graph somewhere, either yearly or monthly, that I could possibly compare the last few years weather with?   

You can see the cycle when the rain and HP storms come. They definitely only come into play every few years so maybe there's a good correlation to sync with in those terms?

If anyone could fill us in on this it would be John Allen.
Regards,
Shauno

[Mike]

I knew it would not take much to lure you out of the cave, John!  Kudos for the info, you always are a great source of definitive meteorological knowledge when it comes to such things.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Now to me this is weird because is war that last let’s say October the news stated we are in la Nina stage? So is it El Nino?


Storm boy – preparing the camera for the season ahead ;-)