Well, after taking a look at GFS out to 14 days, things are not encouraging for severe storms over eastern Australia for the next week or so. The last week of October, however, hints at a pattern shift and things happening with a succession of upper level waves coming through (of course, let's ignore the uncertainty of the models at this range for now).
At the moment (ie today) I see:
(i) 162 hours: Wed 24th. Quite high instability which indicates some likely 'bombs' going up along the ranges.
(ii) 204 hours (hehe) Fri 26th October: A subtle mid-level wave has the potential to kick things off across the east. This little blip is not convincing at this stage, so we'll see over the next few days how GFS and EC deal with it.
(iii) 276 hours (bwahaha) Monday 29th October: a nice short-wave mid- / upper- level trough progged at 276 hours out which rapidly amplifies over the southern ocean, becomes a closed low down off WA and gradually weakens as it tracks east over the weekend. This destabilises things nicely over eastern NSW during Monday. Said system would bring H5 temps down some 6C during Monday, which is good, and the shear introduced by this system during would certainly appear to favour severe storms including supercells. So, the first issue to contend with is whether this feature will persist in subsequent runs and, let's say by the same time next week, see if the timing of the disturbance is good and also whether sufficiently abundant surface moisture are in place.
(iv) 324 hours October 31 - another wave incoming, enough said really.
So the period from Oct 24 - through Oct 31 has some potential as far as interesting weather.
Any other thoughts?
