Topic: Forecasting storms from computer models

[Michael Bath]

Some of us semi newbies probably don't understand all the GFS terms and so on. Where do we find the info, and how do we interpret it? Any of the gurus want to write a sticky how to for this stuff?

The easiest way to start is to check the model output available on weatherzone ---> computer models ---> charts

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

There are a few different models you can access though what detail you can see depends on whether you have registered with weatherzone, or subscribed to its silver access plan.

The US 7-day model is the Global Forecast System (GFS). Start to look at the variables available from the drop down list. Lifted Index and CAPE show areas of instability. But you can't use those in isolation to pick storms. You need to look at available moisture: Dew Point and relative humidity charts, as well as the upper level winds and temperatures.

It would be a good idea to read through some of this forecasting guide

Please add specific questions to this thread and other members can add to the discussion.

Regards, Michael

[Richary]

Thanks Michael. I had found the wind soundings on BoM, but had no idea what the other things were that were being referred to. I will have a dig through the guide later, and I am sure more questions will surface!

EDIT: The link is broken, it can't find the website!

[Mike]

Indeed.  You'll probably have to do a little reading to get the 'nouse' of it otherwise it may become meaningless.  There's plenty of sites through this forum to get educated through the reports, but as i have found out it's a long process and takes time to grasp it all and with patience and time it will all come together.

Michael is correct when saying to look at the CAPE, LI numbers - but don't use that as an iron-clad view that storms will be produced, you need the right air temps, wind profiles etc, etc - but you'll quickly learn to see what should be there and what should not!

There's plenty of threads that have gone through this and in the general questions area you'll find them -  i think most of them were from me!!!

You may think a question may have been posted re what you want and it may have been, but ask anyway - there's plenty of help available.

Mike

[Richary]

Thanks. Have been having a few storms come over the last couple of hours in Sydney with brief periods of heavy rain, and lots of lightning but all up in the clouds and no decent bolts seen. Still it is nice to hear the rain on the tin roof after 5 years in Adelaide!