Hi,
It seems the models could nto resolve the day. Today the action will extend along the eastern sea board and up to the North West Slopes. Wind fields favour the coastal region with a surface and upper level trough intersectiing near the central coast of NSW.
Storms can develop with several triggers given there is an upper trough, and surface trough. Later, storms themselves if they become widespread may also initiate convection. The potential is highest according to the models is near Nelson Bay and Newcastle extending down to Sydney later. However, the morning already has deep moisture flowing inland from the northeast. The 12Z models seemed to not agree dragging drier air nearer the ranges.
The main threat of severe weather is large hailstones and very heavy rainfall and damaging winds with some severe storms. If storms can persist due to backbuilding then flashflooding is probable. The cap is weaker than would be ideal which means that storms will initiate by the early afternoon period.
Added to the complexity of this scenario is a probable meso low that is anticipated near Sydney by 06 to 09Z.
This should be an interesting scenario for Sydney and the surrounding region.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
