The system that dropped all the rain on the South East of QLD has progressively made its way up north. The areas around Bowen have received more than 250mm of rain in the last few days.
As reported by the news, the Bruce Highway was cut due to the flooding stranding many people.
Its of interest to note that there is a slight chance of a tropical low forming although BOM has shown no interest in it at this stage. At this stage it would be a "very low" chance but still, worth keeping an eye on it. The main worry is, not the forming of a cyclone but with possibility of more rain to come, it would exasperate the problem of flooding throughout the coastal communities of Northern QLD.
JTWC are monitoring it, tech reports read, (remember it is still very poor and the main area of concern is for more rain)
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 147.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A
BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS AND A 190336Z
AMSU IMAGE HINT AT BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH. A 182358Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A WEAK MONSOON
TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG 15S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THIS
AREA DO NOT INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT SHOW
15-20 KNOT CONVERGENT EASTERLIES WITH SLP VALUES 1008 TO 1010 MB AND
SLIGHT 24-HOUR SLP RISES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE REMAINS WEAK AND
ELONGATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
BASED ON THE LACK OF A LLCC AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SLP, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
Col
