Topic: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010

[Mathew Townsend]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:15pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr, extending to
adjacent inland parts.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
850 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1010 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.
 
The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone tonight and Saturday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 156.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Still staying as category 2 for landfall. Not good enough for the field trip tomorrow @ Giru!??

[Colin Maitland]

Ului is on course to make landfall some time tomorrow, Sunday21/03/10. Currently a cat 2 System, there is a slight chance that it will build back to a cat.3 before crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina. I thought it was going to be slightly further south when I first starting observing the storm. It still will carry a bit of a punch when it hits, so it is important to keep up to date with emergency warnings.


Latest Tech bulletin states

REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection.

Dvorak analysis gave an ambiguous curbed band of 0.9 wrap yielding DT of 3.5.
MET of 4.0 with PAT of 3.5. Hence FT/CI = 3.5.

AMSU estimates suggest higher wind speeds are possible. Surface observations a
large area of storm force winds.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
today and crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina early on Sunday morning,
steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than
normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is based on some development continuing, into weak category 3
near landfall. However models do not suggest further intensification so some
doubt remains on the system's reponse to shear.

[Colin Maitland]

Ului has now re intensified to CAT3, warning signals are now being used in the broadcast. The situation as you can understand is now serious. Latest update.


Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to
Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the
Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54pm EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
280 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
495 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely
in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone
is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this
evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the normal high tide
mark overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the
foreshore.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters
Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to
shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 151.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Saturday 20 March.

[Mathew Townsend]

Yes i know John, i told alot of people about it here at college!! People need to understand and learn how bad it is, they say it like a normal everyday living life!!

Now he is going to be a buster 205km/hr gusts!!

Remarks:

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the highest tide of the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

[Peter J]

From the forecast track, looks like it could hit Prosepine head on...

Take care all up that way, this beast has gotten nastier by the minute!

Big Pete

[Colin Maitland]

As John pointed out, there is a high probability of a large tidal surge, to add to that, currently the wave rider Bouy at Bailey Islet, Mackay have  registered a Hmax height of 7.5 meter waves.

[Colin Maitland]

The Wave rider Buoy at Bailey Islet, Mackay registered a 9.5 meter Hmax during the peak of the storm with a 5.7 meter Hsig. At this stage I have not heard of the damage reports as is still probably pretty dangerous to survey, but over the next couple of hours we should start receiving the reports.

Currently, after crossing the coast Ului is still making her way inland as a Cat 2 cyclone.

Update from BOM this morning.

At 5:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
45 kilometres south southwest of Bowen and
135 kilometres northwest of Mackay and
moving west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

At 6:00 am EST the cyclone is estimated to be
15 kilometres north northwest of Collinsville and
82 kilometres west of Proserpine.

The centre Tropical Cyclone Ului is currently just west of Collinsville, and
continuing to move further inland. The cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken
later this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 155 km/hr are expected to continue affecting the
coastal and island communities between Bowen and Seaforth for the next hour or
so.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Ayr and Sarina and the adjacent
inland for the next few hours, then gradually ease during the afternoon.
    

[Paul D]

It seams Ului dissipated fairly quickly after crossing the coast.
 
Although as of 4:40 am 22-03-2010 BOM still have a Severe Weather Warning in QLD for heavy rainfall and flooding
for the Central Coast, Capricornia district and for the Central Highlands and Central West north of a line from Taroom to Longreach. 

BOM has released data from a trial of the new Emerald Radar earlier than scheduled due to TC Ului
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR723.loop.shtml

Cheers
Paul

Last Ex TC Ului track map from BOM -