Topic: Severe Weather Forecast western Central Plains 11th to 12th March 2006

[David C]

same storm is now in Illinois - initiated in Kansas.  Has produced multiple large tornadoes and currently

AT 751 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKLIN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

[David C]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 759 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A HALF MILE WIDE
TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOB
NOSTER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.

[David C]

More hooks than my tackle box on the latest scan from Kansas City.

Remember it is dark there and things are happening 'right now'. Hopefully loss of life is minimal. Long track destructive tornadoes occurring while many people are in bed asleep.... not a good thought.

AT 829 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO IN
CHILHOWEE.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHILHOWEE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
WARRENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

[David C]

Apologies for the cut and paste.

This supercell that has just gone through Springfield (IL) is an absolute monster. It will be interesting to see the stats on this one when all is said and done ie number of tornadoes and intensity - hail size, duration and distance covered. It apparently crossed the entire state of Missouri as a supercell and shows no sign of quitting -- > hence MD paste from SPC >>

SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL
   COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS
   03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
   ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY
   OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE
   00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   -- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM
   FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

[David C]

Same storm still going full throttle.

AT 930 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF  CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  WELDON.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...LANE AND DE WITT.

[Matthew Piper]

That supercell is truly amazing  Have a read of the following about it from the SPC. I have never heard of a supercell lasting for so long 

LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK
DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS
PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL
MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER
06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT.

[David C]

83 tornado reports logged on the SPC website for Sunday
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


Based on some of the damage reports it sounds as though there may be some possible F4 or perhaps even F5 damage ....but I guess that is speculation at this stage.

At 11:30 pm CDT

LATEST VWP OUT OF ST LOUIS SHOWS 70+ KT AROUND
   1 KM RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LOW
   LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

Now that's a low level jet!

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

This is certainly one of those unique events and it is a priviledge to have been here seeing it unfold. The tornado reports on the SPC is 104 at this point and rising. In my opinion it deserves the title super outbreak of the modern era. (Of course we have to await the final account once the SPC has revised repeated reports of the same tornadoes).

The main supercell David talks about above traversed 5 states and may become one of the longest lived supercells. Not only did it travel through 5 states from Oklahoma?, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, it travelled over 600 miles (1000km) and lasted 14 hours.

It is unfortunate that most tornadoes occurred at night or in hilly terrain and trees making them difficult to see. It was also unfortunate that the tornadoes travelled at immense speed.

If there are less fatalities, I would think that this would be a great example of the incredible warning system.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

The latest has this mega-supercell having traversed six states! It is now nick named the 6 state mega-storm! It began in Oklahoma near the border with Kansas and then endded up in Michigan!

The first echo was noted near Morrison, OK (Noble County) at 1726z. Last detectable echo was just north of Jackson, MI (Jackson County) at 0904z. That means this supercell tracked 690nm miles over a period of 17 hours and 38 minutes. The average heading was from 245 degrees at 39KT. ..... Robert Prentice

What an incredible event! Final tally of preliminary tornado reports is 113! The map below has changed since the time of this posting at 113)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060312_rpts.html




Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Brad Hannon]

Truly amazing statistics.  No doubt there will be heaps of new info flooding the web for some time about this outbreak and hopefully some great pics of the structure of such a storm throughout its long lifecycle. Thanks Jimmy, David and Matthew for your commentary and links throughout this thread.  What a great read!

[Jeff Brislane]

Awesome stuff. I've been trying to catch up tonight on some of the reports and I must say I found something that left me disgusted! Sorry for the off track comment but this is unbelievable!

I didn?t get out of Omaha until 1900z due to Wal-Mart taking 3 hours to change my tires. They were cheep, $12.00 per tire for mount & balance, but so slow.

$12 for a car tyre fitted and balanced! That makes me sick!

 

[Jeff Brislane]

And here's a nice comment for the animal lovers out there!

I could chase any day this week except Sunday due to work. Oh well, but I did manage to intercept the warned cell in NC IL on my way back home from work. I had to take my wife hostage to chase this thing. She did a good job and she really laughed watching a bunch of deer getting pummeled by the hail. A really good hail producer to say the least.

Remember the horses Jimmy! 

[David C]

http://www.twisterchasers.com/tornadoes_at_night.htm

Another night photo on the Stormteack thread  http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/index.php?showtopic=10581&st=40

These were large tornadoes!

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

An update of the tornado reports for this event has revised upwards to 140 tornadoes.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara