Topic: Tropical Cyclone Paul : from 26 March 2010

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Apparently a Tropical Low East of Darwin Has developed. There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Lets See what it does over the next few days.

Antonio.

[Colin Maitland]

The tropical Low has developed into a cyclone called Paul

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11  
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Sunday 28 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi.

At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 was estimated to be 90
kilometres north of Alyangula and 105 kilometres south southwest of Nhulunbuy,
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The cyclone is expected to intensify slightly before it moves inland between
CAPE SHIELD and ALYANGULA on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between and NHULUNBUY and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE EYLANDT. GALES may extend
west to MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA late Monday if the system takes a more
northerly track.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today and Monday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the
Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts today and Monday.
 
Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

[Harley Pearman]

Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Paul 28/3/2010

I obtained the image below from the Bureau of Meteorology Radar (Via Weatherzone) operating in the area (2.50 am) on 28/3/2010. It shows the tropical cyclone circulating south of Nhulunbuy. Interesting at the time, the eye wall was approximately 14 km across (east to west). The most significant thunderstorm activity within it was located to the north, the east, south east and south. The north west quadrant had the least intense activity. The more intense storms are located close to the eye wall. The eye wall is barely off the coast although the western edge at the time was skirting land.

At times the radar images suggested a galaxy like feature with thunderstorms developing then being snarled into the system. I am aware by 5 pm on 28/3/2010, the system has not moved a great deal.

Please note I had to limit the features on this image to keep it under 300 KB limit.

Harley Pearman

[Antonio (stormboy)]

hes weakening

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29 
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities Nhulunbuy to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.

The Cyclone WARNING from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy has been cancelled. The cyclone
WARNING from Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, has been
downgraded to a cyclone WATCH.

At 3:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be 160 kilometres west
northwest of Alyangula and 215 kilometres west southwest of Nhulunbuy, and was
slow moving.

The cyclone has weakened into a deep tropical low over Arnhem Land and is
expected to remain slow moving tonight and early on Wednesday. There is a
possibility that the low could move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria during
Thursday where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops.

A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall
and large waves in the Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 135.1 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

maybe he will intensify again...