Topic: NSW SE Q Possible Storms / Rain 16- 20 Nov 2010

[Antonio (stormboy)]

It looks like there could be some afternoon thunderstorms in our view early next week with the cape showing good potential for storms 4pm on Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday

Lets see how it will pan out

Antonio.

[Mathew Townsend]

Ahh great! In time for getting home from Townsville! Ill will be arriving Brisbane on Monday and be in Ballina on Tuesday! Woohoo!

[nmoir]

I had been considering coming up for some action along the border but the last couple of gfs model runs have been ,well vastly differing so i will wait till wednesday methinks

[Antonio (stormboy)]

A large Band of rain is making its way painfully slowly here and hopefully tomorrow with it in the front some thunder action will occur.

Antonio.

[Michael Bath]

Yesterday (16th November) was another downgraded day. Shear was fairly slack as per usual but the main problem appears to have been a relatively warm layer between 600hPa and 450hPa which slowed updrafts once the convection reached about 4500 metres.

However, a cell did manage to form just NW of Lismore after 5pm EDT. I heard two rumbles of thunder.








All photos taken on 16 November 2010

[Antonio (stormboy)]

As Michael stated above an afternoon cell did develop in NW lismore area and i have one quick picture of the cell from my view (Ballina)

you can see the radar here See : 128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 05:00 16/11/2010 to 09:00 16/11/2010 UTC


Antonio..

[Michael Bath]

The heaviest 24 hour rainfall to 9am 17th Nov was 122mm at Dorrigo (Mountain Top) - the only red dot on the attached map.

Persistent rain drenching northeast New South Wales
Josh Fisher, Wednesday November 17, 2010 - 19:54 EDT
Persistent rain has led to the biggest falls in years for parts of northeast New South Wales, and there's plenty more on the way.

A near-stationary trough over northeast New South Wales and central Queensland is being fed by very moist easterly winds.

This has led to heavy rain over the region, with some areas picking up close to 100mm in the last 24 hours. Dorrigo had seen 87mm to 9am today, their wettest November day in 13 years. Nearby more than 120mm was recorded.

Guyra was awash with 85mm to 9am, its heaviest rain in five years and heaviest November rain in 29 years.

This heavy rain will continue for the next 48 hours with widespread falls of 50 to 100mm expected over northeast New South Wales. The Northern Tablelands, Northwest Slopes and Plains and Northern Rivers will see the highest totals with potential for more than 100mm by Friday.

Flooding is highly likely.

The trough will weaken and push offshore on Friday, allowing the rain to ease. Moist easterly winds will only deliver a few brief showers over the weekend, mainly on Saturday.

- Weatherzone

[Antonio (stormboy)]

0.6mm here so far and there seems to be huge amounts 100+mm of rain Northwest and West from here about 1 hour inland will be interesting if it dosent hit us because so far again it looks like its going to slip to much south to hit us.

Antonio.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi guys,

Storm Chase 18th November 2010

Went for a little chase near Campbelltown today. Encountered heavy traffic so made it there after 6pm. Storm was still going strong though there were no options in that area to be in front of it. The base was consolidated and low enough to make things interesting and some lightning though not overly active. Not too bad for a marginal day at best. The storm seemed to traverse the boundary.





Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Paul D]

Not exactly record breaking but Caboolture appears to have copped a bit of downpour this evening with the BOM Caboolture Wtp AL recording 72mm bettween 6 to 7pm.
Convection, rainfall seems to become semi-stationary for a while.
Interesting sequence in the lead up to this, on the BSCH Caboolture SW web cam.

BSCH Caboolture_SW web cam timelapse 2-50pm to 6-40pm 18th Nov

Radar loop for corresponding period:-
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2010-11-18-05/2010-11-18-11

Cheers
PD

[habs]

This took me by surprise, on holidays sitting around at home and saw a couple of showers near wollongong around midday and they died, thought nothing of it until 5.30pm and looked at the radar and was gobsmacked and straight out the door.. that will teach me for not  paying attention! I just wanted to get to Luddenham for good sunset shots and a lightning show if it survived...got the sunset, but not the lightning show! saw a few bolts though.









Matt

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Matt,

Great shots at sunset - I assumer this was the storm slightly further west nearer the mountains that matured at sunset? David C told me about this specific storm. Nice structure.

As to the anticipation, I was observing the early activity and saw the cumulus build up in the region. I attempted to ignore it but kept checking. It took off just before 5pm which is when we took off. With family, you have limited options and we did Thursday night grocery shopping after this specific storm began to weaken. This was the initial intention but instead of Blacktown it ended up being Campbelltown:)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[vrondes]

Wonderful colours from Thursday's sunset storm there Matt and Jimmy, We had just finished dinner when I saw the sky was full of colour, and took shots of the storm near Katoomba  and then swung to the SW to see the Campbelltown updrafts, the 3rd shot as the cells moved across the city and decayed, earlier would have been ideal, but cant complain with what I saw,







Cheers, Con.

[Mathew Townsend]

Nice pics!
Habs: I am confused that on your 2nd picture showing the guster cloud covering the tree up just like 50metres away?

Also i will be arriving back in Ballina next Tuesday however keen to chase!!?