Severe weather possible today - Moderate Risk issued by SPC
A dynamic mid/upper-level storm system will race northeastward over the southern Plains and Mid-South today, bringing the possibility of severe weather to parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Mid-South region. As dewpoints climb into the 60s along I-40 in Oklahoma and Arkansas, a surface low pressure system will deepen in response to the approaching mid/upper-level disturbance, then translate eastward across the MO/AR border by this evening. This surface low will lift an associated warm front into the Ozarks by this evening, progressing northeastward toward the Ohio River Valley overnight. Warm, moist air across the warm sector -- east of the dryline in TX and OK, and south of the warm front -- will result in weak instability, but low-level wind shear will be significant across the Ozarks and mid-South into Thursday night. Although great uncertainty remains as to whether adequate destabilization will result, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area with a Moderate Risk for today. However, the process of a heightened severe weather threat developing later today will hinge on whether early, ongoing precip can give way to wide areas of clearing, and greater instability can materializes, as the threat for discrete supercells and tornadoes will be higher across portions of the Mid-South in this case. Regardless, severe storms appear likely across east Arkansas, and the western portions of Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi later this evening. Heavy rains are also of great concern, as the lower Ohio into mid-Mississippi Valley area could
see 3+" over a relatively short time frame.
We will also be watching a separate storm system which
models suggest will impact the same general areas by Sunday. This second system appears to be the more potent of the two at this time.
Finally, don't forget that the
Minnesota Storm Chasing Convention is this weekend! The event is sold out, but organizer Michael Stanga along with fellow TVN-live streamer Dean Baron will be broadcasting live. Be sure to tune in, as speakers will include Storm Chasers' Tim Samaras and NY
Times Best-selling author and friend of TVN Jenna Blum!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/36-tornadoes/1331-severe-weather-possible-today-moderate-risk-issued-by-spc
