Moderate Risk! Severe weather outbreak expected this afternoon!
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, extremely large hail and destructive winds are possible from Illinois and Indiana southwest into Arkansas and northeast Texas this afternoon. Supercells are trying to break through a rather strong cap over central Missouri at this time; instability is high, and precipitation models are on board with discrete storm activity winning out over the next few hours. This could spell big problems for parts of Missouri and Illinois, as the
environment will be favorable for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, shear profiles are less supportive of tornadoes, but
extremely large hail will be a threat for southwest MO and eastern OK into western and northern AR. After dark, a very damaging wind event may transpire over the mid-MS valley region, as initially discrete convection is likely to form into a large MCS/derecho and move across eastern AR, west TN and northern MS. Numerous chasers are streaming live this afternoon, so be sure to check out the
Live page to follow the conditions on the ground. Those in the threat areas are of course urged to monitor local media for watches and warnings, and have a severe weather plan in place in the event of a warning. It's better to be prepared than to become a statistic!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/36-tornadoes/1349-moderate-risk-severe-weather-outbreak-expected-this-afternoon
