Topic: Tropical Cyclone Charlotte: QLD 11 - 12 Jan 2009

[Mike]

Update from BoM re low in Gulf:

at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 8 January 2009

A TROPICAL LOW 1002 hPa is situated in the southeastern GULF OF CARPENTARIA near
Mornington Island. At 11am it was near latitude 17S, longitude 139E, slow
moving.

The LOW is expected to remain slow moving over water for the next few days, and
may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the weekend. The likelihood of a
tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three days is:

Friday: low,
Saturday: moderate,
Sunday: high.

(Darinka and her hubby and son are here chasing (well trying to get some action) so maybe this might liven them up..)

[Colin Maitland]

They have now issued a warning for the Gulf

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:52pm on Friday the 9th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria with a centre near Mornington Island at approximately 16.9 degrees
South 139.5 degrees East. This is 285 kilometres west southwest of Kowanyama and
95 kilometres north of Burketown. The low is currently slow moving.

The low is expected to remain over the Gulf waters during the next few days
while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone late on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours,
however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated
with a strengthening of the monsoon.

[Peter J]

I'm still not convinced the current low will develop into a cyclone - the formation is very disorganised and a lack of strong wind gusts is not a good sign either (I think the max gust by BoM details is hovering arounf 55kph). If you keep looking at the SatPics the cloud formation doesn't have the customary "twist" in it.

Big Pete
(QLD cyclone skeptic)

[Mike]

Looks like you'll have to eat your words eh Pete?!  Watch issued already for this system.  Track forecasts see it heading over the Cape into the eastern side so things might be a little wetter for those parts which already have received some impressive rainfall.  Plenty severe weather warnings out for Nhulunbuy and associated NT areas lying on the western side of this low. 

[Michael Bath]

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte was named by the BoM a short while ago.
Be interesting to see whether it can cross the Cape and continue into the Coral Sea.

[Colin Maitland]

A good site for sat pics of Charlotte is at

http://www.switchbanks.com.au/wind.html   ( probably everyones already discovered that sight.)

Or http://www.switchbanks.com.au/weatherworld.html   (opens the whole world of weather up.)

She may fizzle out while crossing but regenerate with the monsoonal activity prevalent in the coral sea.

Hopefully that rain will continue down into Brisbane and North New South Walse and fill our dams.

[Peter J]

Mike,

I didn't think as of yesterday that the storms looked like much out over QLD/NT border area, but you were right - I do need to eat my words.
TC Charlotte quickly formed within 12 hrs - one of the quickest formed storms i've seen in some time.
It has got quite a formation on the BoM mornington island radar - including an eye to the eNe of the storrm. Currently is Cat1 - not sure if it will continue into coral sea - but if it does, could well develop to Cat3 or Cat4 status.

Big Pete

[Carlos E]

I'm surprised it developed at all to be honest. It's done so very rapidly, and the BoM were right all along in saying it would form on Sunday. Good work to them.

On the latest advice, they suggest it could reach Category 2 intensity, which makes it very similar to Cyclone Nelson back in 2007. I guess as Pete said, the major question is if it will reach over into the Coral Sea, or if it'll head too far inland to reform itself. Interesting system, nevertheless.

[Peter J]

The BoM track map says charlotte could backtrack itself once inland, but whether it is strong enough to redevelop will be something we'll have to wait see.

Big Pete
(still not the best looking TC i've seen)

[Carlos E]

Haha, yeah, looking at the last track, I guess the question is now, if it will reach back into the Gulf, or head inland just south of it.

Our Cyclones are irritatingly erratic!

[cloudfairy]

I had a look into the models and it seems that it will simply die over the next two days. Moving across the cape and back. There is one model saying, that it will redevelope over the gulf again, but in three days so, that is too long for a TC-forecast. Wait and see

[Mike]

Now that things have gone stagnant I might pop into BoM at last - just as an aside..with what must have been some around yesterday I saw a funnel lowering from weak Cu's across the coastline yesterday, remained lowered for about 7 minutes and was about half way reaching the ocean - something I've never seen over water so was neat to see.

[cloudfairy]

It's gone... R.I.P
But we still should keep an eye on it and where it will go. the models show some kind of circulation further west for the next days.