Topic: Victoria Bushfires: 23 February to 4 March 2009

[Colin Maitland]

I was just looking at the Stats from latest Weather Observations for Kingfish B in Victoria. The wind is already intensifying peaking at 82 km/has at 8.50pm Monday the 2 of March 2009


Date/time                                                 dir      speed        gusts   knots       
02/09:30pm     -     -     -     -      ENE        63           78        34     42     -     -     -
02/09:20pm    -    -    -    -    -    ENE        65            76      35    41    -    -    -
02/09:10pm    -    -    -    -    -    ENE        65            80      35    43    -    -    -
02/09:00pm    -    -    -    -    -    ENE        65            82      35    44    -    -    -
02/08:50pm    -    -    -    -    -    ENE        67            80      36    43    -    -    

[Colin Maitland]

Just looking at some of the Obs. for Victoria. Some areas are registering 70+km./h. The doppler wind radar, at approx 11.00am, is showing signs of stronger winds to come. 

[Colin Maitland]

looking at the Obs. again at 12.10 pm. Melbourne airport had a gust at 93km/h at 11.49am. Posted is the latest Doppler at 12.10 pm 3/03/09.

Reading through some of the news reports and they have down graded the fire warnings, so lets hope they can keep a lid on it. Still very dangerous conditions with stronger winds are still expected this afternoon. The severe weather front is not moving as far North as once predicted.

[Colin Maitland]

Just some of the latest reports on the severe weather and fire in Victoria at 3.36pm 3/03/09.


Firefighters have been pulled back from a blaze in Gippsland, east of Melbourne, because strong winds are making conditions too dangerous.

Thousands of firefighters remain on alert across Victoria, while residents anxiously await the forecast wind change this evening.

The Weather Bureau says winds are strengthening across Victoria, with gusts of 125 kilometres per hour recorded in the state's west.

Strong winds have brought down a tree on a house at Tecoma, east of Melbourne.

The tree demolished the front of the house in Clair Grove.

The SES has taken more than 80 calls for uprooted trees and minor damage to buildings, particularly in central Victoria.

[Colin Maitland]

Some of the latest reports at 6.05pm 03/03/09  for the VIC severe weather and fire.

All Victorians are being warned by emergency services to watch out for falling trees and debris and to take care on the roads.

Hundreds of people living on rural blocks in Melbourne's outer east have evacuated their homes and congregated on a sports ground in Lilydale.

The massive Murrindindi complex fire is still burning in the Yarra Ranges region and its residents have been dealing with the fire threat for nearly a month, since it broke out during the fatal Saturday hellfire on February 7.

"It's a stressful set of circumstances, people are sleep-deprived and just can't wait to get home," Yarra Ranges Council emergency service officer Simon O'Callaghan said.

Lilydale's showgrounds have taken on the now-familiar sight of a refugee camp, full of people and their pets and farm animals.

Mount Hotham AWS has just registered 106km/h winds. The wind is still expected to gain strength as the evening continues.

[Harley Pearman]

I have been looking at some weather stations across Victoria. Conditions are bad but winds do not seem to be reaching extreme levels at too many locations. Looking at some weather stations across the state, I have found the following:-

Melbourne City:

Maximum temperature of 32C reached at 5.30 pm. Northerly winds of 52 km/h (average gusts) with peak gust to 74 km/h.

11.52 am - wind speeds were 76 km/h with peak gusts to 93 km/h.
12 Noon - wind speeds were 65 km/h with peak gusts to 93 km/h.

Peak gusts were between 70 and 93 km/h.

At 6.30 pm, the cold front was upon Melbourne's western suburbs. eg Avalon, the temperature was 23C after a peak of 33.3C at 4.55 pm following the change.

Conditions are sharply cooler in south west Victoria with temperatures in the mid teens (14 to 17C range) following the passage of the cold front.

Other notable recordings by 6.30 pm 3/3/2009 include:-

Mangalore Airport - Peak wind gust of 74 km/h recorded at 3.02 pm.
Coldstream - Peak wind gust of 67 km/h at 5.30 pm.
Mt Gellibrand - Peak gust of 100 km/h at 2.43 pm.
Eildon Fire Tower - Gusts to 70 km/h with a maximum daytime temperature of 26.4C at 6.30 pm.

Gust of 100 km/h have occurred in some locations and raised dust has been recorded as well.

Looking at the " 3pm Daily Weather Bulletin Victoria 3/3/2009" Mildura recorded the states highest temperature of 38C.
Casterton in western Victoria had 6 mm of rain being the highest total that I could find.

Very light patchy rainfall has occurred in some southern areas but falls are mostly less than 1 mm to 3 pm.

Conditions were more moderate across North East Victoria in areas toward the Murray River region.

The winds are by far the biggest threat and gales have occurred but temperatures were mostly lower than expected due to cloud cover. So far, no new catastrophe but the state is on knife edge. Conditions are expected to ease as the cold front passes through then diminishes.

There are some showers accompanying the front through Melbourne but no significant falls are occurring.

(All figures sourced from Bureau of Meteorology Weather Station network 3/3/2009 at selected sites).


Harley Pearman

[Colin Maitland]

An extract from 9MSN

High winds have battered Victoria, cutting power to thousands of residents and leading to more than 300 calls for help.

Gusts of up to 120km/h have been experienced across much of the state, ahead of a strong westerly change on Tuesday evening.

About 10,000 customers are without power on Tuesday evening in Powercor's region, covering most of the state's west.

The Horsham area has been hit by two wind-related power faults that together have disconnected 3,200 customers in the area between Horsham, Dimboola and Natimuk.

Power outages have also occurred at Colac and Bacchus Marsh.

About 700 customers are without power in the SP Ausnet electricity distribution area, which covers most of eastern Victoria.

Spokeswoman Natasha Whalley said most cases were in the Dandenongs, around Healesville and at Kinglake, where some fire-affected trees are damaging powerlines in the high winds.

[Colin Maitland]

It was a bit of good news for Victoria today and yesterday, the 3 & 4 of March 2009. The strong winds that were expected from the west yesterday were not as ferocious as predicted. There was still reports of wind gusts over the 100km/h mark and there was some reported property damage and power loses. 

With the change came welcoming rain, with between 5 & 10 mms hoped for today. Melbourne has a forecasted high of only 19C, so although they are not over the fire crisis as yet, it is looking better.

I am sure the good news was welcomed by all residents.

Colin

[Harley Pearman]

To follow up on Colton's previous post, some good news at last. The worst appears to be over for the state. Rather unusual but overnight from roughly 9 pm to 9 am 3/3/09 to 4/3/09, the heaviest rainfalls occurred in the fire affected areas exceeding the rainfall model expectations and providing enough moisture to dampen the fires and allow fire fighters to gain the upper hand. The following rainfall observations are provided.

All figures quoted are to 9 am 4/3/2009 from Bureau of Meteorology Rain gauges.

Melbourne - 2.4 mm.
Melbourne Airport (Tullamarine) - 2.4 mm.
Bulla - 3 mm.
Preston - 6.2 mm.

(Some samples around Melbourne)

The further east, rainfall increases:-

Viewbank - 10 mm.
Plenty River at Mernda - 11 mm.
Yan Yean 13 mm.
Wallaby Creek 14 mm.
Yea - 16 mm.
Alexandra - 19 mm.
Taggerty - 17 mm.
Areas around Kinglake affected by fire received around 15 mm of rain.
Maroonda Weir - 26 mm.
Mt St Leonard - 31 mm.
Marysville Golf Course - 31 mm. (A fire devastated area has received one of the better falls).
Noojee - 26 mm.

The fire affected region has received by far the best falls allowing some moisture to damped the fires although, it is not enough to put them out. Regions outside the North East Melbourne region have received poor rains from this system and some localities received nothing.

The article I found in The Age Melbourne "Cool change brings some blessed rain" by Peter Ker 4/3/2009 picks up on some of this as the event unfolds.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/cool-change-brings-some-blessed-rain-20090303-8...

All indications are, the rain is enough to allow fire fighters to gain the upper hand in some of the worst affected areas.

Further showers have fallen again in the affected areas 4/3/09 with falls in the 1 to 4 mm range common. Although the showers are fairly limited in area.

The insurance bill now tops $1 Billion (Insurance Council of Australia) with 8,150 claims made so far.

"The Worst is Over Bushfire Authorities Declare" The Age 4/3/09.

Harley Pearman