Hello every body this is my first post, first of all i am really, really glad to be here in amongst some of Australias finest chasers. myself im a bit of an amateur, but i get a little better each storm season. I first started chasing in SE qld, between Brisbane, nth, to Noosa, and Nanango, i my g/f calls it J's triangle, coz i used to loose things when ever I went chasing, mobile phones, cameras, money, car keys, even my self. Then sadly we moved to victoria, where the storms in Western Vic have not been so grand, well not like some of the beauty's i used to chase in 'the triangle'
However today is looking promising, the bom has issued a storm warning the covers a huge expanse of land. I like to chase after lightning, so I'm allways after something severe. I often here ppl say things like 1 strike every 10 - 15 seconds, but i have not seen a cell like that since being in qld. the cells I say throw out a strike every 1 to 2 minutes sometimes longer, I'm always turning up at the wrong place at the wrong time, i usually too early and something takes my attention (like another cell far away) and ill go after that, only too arrive too late. Today a Front is arriving with a prefrontal trough, it extends across a large area, which is prolly the reason for the boms blanket warning. My concern is that in front of the trough the RH is around 25 at 1000mb, and on the aft side of the front / trough the RH is good, all over the place though. Does this even matter? I understand we want dry air up high, but what about here on the ground, and no I haven't finished this guide yet,I'm about half way through, but with having to do my %10 of chart reading, my usual ritual of trying to get other ppls confirmation of my readings, i have no time to read, before heading out for a chase.
I guess given the LFTX of -1 and a little better every where the front will be a good trigger, CAPE is not so high tho how can the bom expect severe weather in the west, Geez Ive got a long way to go understanding Victoria's weather. Up in qld, i barely had to look at the GFS, and when I did, I only looked at LFTX because the weather was so much more text book (for lack of a better word) I mean but down hear it seems very complicated in order get all the variables right before we get some developmeant, however Eastern Vic has always seemed quite a bit better than Western VIC, even though most ppl who live in eastern Vic would argue otherwise.
I feel like racing out to meet this front, as far as i can get before we reached each other, but the fact is might be better staying home as I have a hill near by that will give me a marvelous view of Port Philip Bay, and allot of the path this system will take across Melbourne and geelong. but..... If for some reason, not much is visible or not much lightning in the section of the front / trough that crosses my area, ill be stuck, i will first have to travel 30 k behind the storm and then have to catch up and get ionfront, and ill need to pass through to city's, geelong and Melbourne, (in other words, if I don't leave soon, ill be stuck here.
Oh yes, Ive been using the NOAA NCEP GFS, but I can not figure out which variable is for Wind? theres allot to choose from, so I look at LFTX, CIN, and CAPE, but Ireall want to look at shear at diff levels, anyone? Anyhow, ill be back later today after my chase Good luck to any one else chasing today
