Author Topic: The 2006/2007 storm season in review  (Read 7185 times)

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Michael Thomas

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The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« on: 23 March 2007, 03:56:19 PM »
I am interested doing a thread for the storm days of the season which resulted in hail greater than 5cm and/or mesocyclonic tornadoes. To my knowlegde supercells formed on the 8/11/06, 15/11/06, 16/12/06 and 7/02/07 and produced gaint hail. The setup on each of these days were quite varied which is interesting. Maybe over the next couple of months I can get some time and try my best to do a somewhat technical discussion. If anyone has any thoughs I'd be interested to hear them.

Michael

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #1 on: 23 March 2007, 04:37:06 PM »
Hi Michael,

That is indeed an interesting approach to dwell more into these specific events, two of which I can relate to. However, can you outline briefly each of these events. I would also be interested in which of these events had mesocyclonic tornadoes.

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Jimmy Deguara
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Michael Thomas

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #2 on: 24 March 2007, 01:35:53 AM »
To my knowledge none of these events had mesocyclonic torndaoes. The 15/11/06 event certainly recieved some attention due to the strong flow at all levels (30 knots at 850 hPa, 50-60 knots at 500 hPa), however no tornadoes resulted. I find it interesting that the best supercells of that day formed around dawn. With the strong shear and low LCL's would these storms have had the best chance of producing a tornado or would radiative cooling at the surface mean that the storms were not surface based? I will give an overview of each event later on.

Michael

Offline David C

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #3 on: 24 March 2007, 05:10:02 AM »
With the strong shear and low LCL's would these storms have had the best chance of producing a tornado or would radiative cooling at the surface mean that the storms were not surface based? I will give an overview of each event later on.

Michael

Hi Michael, I cant recall the synoptic scale setting for this event (15/11). Given what you have described, however, WAA certainly could mitigate the effects of radiative cooling in this situation. I imagine that would be revealed through surface observation at the nearest station and the low level flow in general. Elevated convection also tends to scurry along very quickly with the 500-700 flow rather than be anchored when you have strongly backed (or veered) low-level flow  so storm motions might also provide some insight there (where is there?).
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Offline Macca

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #4 on: 24 March 2007, 12:20:30 PM »
Hey guys,

Just a quick one from me since its after midnight (here in Canada).  15/11 was in the South East Coast and Wide Bay districts of QLD. 

In the South East Coast area, supercells developed W of Brisbane and passed over the inner northern suburbs with what has been described as well defined mesocyclone (by the BoM).  It caused damage around Ashgrove as the meso passed over that area although the damage was not tornadic, it did indicate winds of up to about 110km/h (an educated guess based on the damage).  Hail of up to 4cm was reported from the inner northern suburbs.

In the Wide Bay area, 3 probable supercells developed at or around 6am near Maryborough in a moist, unstable environment along an E-W aligned boundary (possibly a warm front - will discuss more later if anyone is interested?) and produced some nasty wind damage to a farm and reports of cricket-ball sized hail came in from Mundubbera.  Photographic evidence indicated the hail was in the 8cm+ range.  Again I'd estimate winds of around 110km/h based on the damage at the farm.  Later that day (2pm-ish), a large storm formed on the dryline which was situation near Taroom (about 200km inland from the coast at a guess) and moved ENE.  I intercepted this storm near Munduberra and chased it briefly before it overtook me and I was blocked by flooded roads.  Some fantastic structure was had this day and evening - its just a pity the storms were moving at 70+km/h.  Hail up to the size of golf-balls was reported with this storm.  Reports from one other storm to the N of this one later in the day indicated possible tornadic activity with a narrow, lengthy path of damage (i'll see if I can dig up the details).

Surface temps were around 30C with DP's around 20-21C and 500mb temps were around -14C I think.  In the morning, the lowest 2km of the atmosphere saw 30+knt winds from the NNE, swinging around to 30-40knts at 700mb from the NW and 50-60knts at 500mb from the WNW.  As the day moved on and the dryline pushed eastwards (and moreso further S), the low level winds swung more NW'ly (although maintained their strength), thus shear wasn't as good later in the day.  This possibly prevented (more) tornadic activity this day as all the other parameters were there. 

I'll dig up some more data at some stage over the weekend.  The warm front "thing" was of quite a bit of interest as I think it aided in the early morning storm development and also the supercell/s which developed W of, and moved across Brisbane.

Macca

Edit:  Here is a picture of one of the cells that evening.  Of interest is the inflow band that you can see extending across the full length of the frame JUST above the grass.  This went right into the base of the storm.  You don't see that too often here in Australia!!  http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery/album14/IMG_0023
« Last Edit: 24 March 2007, 12:32:33 PM by Macca »

Offline Macca

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #5 on: 24 March 2007, 12:26:21 PM »
Hi guys,

Just another quick one...I can verify the hail on the 8/11/06.  It was the day I lost my windscreen to 8cm hail (measured by me).  The storm developed NW of Gatton in South East QLD and moved NE and passed over Esk, giving that town a battering of golf-ball and larger hail.  It then smashed my windscreen about 15km NE of Esk and it continued its NE'ward track after I stopped trying to et back onto the N'rn flank.  There has also been reports of a tornado from the same cell about 1 hour later (kicking myself now) as it moved into a more moist airmass closer to the coast.  A house near Woodford (I think) was damaged and a lawn-mower like strip of trees was carved out about 100m wide and I think 8km long in that area. 

Macca

Edit:  Here is some of the hail I measured that day.  http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery/album13/IMG_9554 .  I later moved about 800m farther up the road and found the larger stones which were measured at 8cm but for some reason I didn't take a photo with my ruler.  OH WAIT!!  YES I DID!!..hehe.  Sorry...  http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery/album13/IMG_9557
« Last Edit: 24 March 2007, 12:35:48 PM by Macca »

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #6 on: 24 March 2007, 10:43:56 PM »
Hey guys,

Here is a little quote from a post of mine to another forum regarding the happenings on 15/11...

No luck on the morning storms Jimmy. The models (GFS and MesoLaps) and the BoM all picked up on the chance of morning storms and the shear during the morning did not go un-noticed by several chasers. The low levels (850hpa) had a much more signficiant northerly component and were in the 35-40knt vicinity. The storms appeared to form an an east-west aligned boundary (similar to a warm front I guess with increases in DPs north of this boundary of 4-5C and a change in winds from easterly south of the boundary to northerly/north westerly north of the boundary). After the morning storms moved off the coast, this boundary may've moved south during the morning to be located right over Brisbane by early afternoon. Interaction between this boundary and the trough may've created a triple point of sorts on which the Brisbane supercell/s initiated. Gotta love hindsight in realising these things...

Macca

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #7 on: 25 March 2007, 05:00:22 AM »
Yes there were indications of a possible tornado but why is there nothing verified, no damage surveys, photographs, videos - so much technology - very little verification. David, did you by any chance discuss this event in some more detail with one of the locals or something?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
« Last Edit: 25 March 2007, 05:06:01 AM by Jimmy Deguara »
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #8 on: 25 March 2007, 06:15:03 AM »
Some interactive radar loops covering all of the major storms that occurred

8th November 2006 NE NSW / SE QLD

- Grafton 128 / Grafton 256
- Mt Stapylton 128 / Mt Stapylton 256
- Brisbane 128 / Brisbane 256
- Gladstone 128 / Gladstone 256

I included the old Brisbane radar as the Doppler was knocked out later afternoon.


15th November 2006 NE NSW / SE QLD

Morning storms:
- Gympie 128 / Gympie 256

Afternoon storms:
- Gympie 128 / Gympie 256
- Mt Stapylton 128 / Mt Stapylton 256


16th December 2006 SE QLD

- Mt Stapylton 128 / Mt Stapylton 256
- Gympie 128 / Gympie 256
- Gladstone 256


7th February 2007 Central East NSW

- Kurnell 128
- Sydney 128 / Sydney 256
- Newcastle 128 / Newcastle 256 / Newcastle 512
- Canberra 128 / Canberra 256
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Michael Thomas

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #9 on: 26 March 2007, 07:54:35 AM »
Thanks for the interest and comments. I had forgotten about the possible tornado on the 8/11/06, that storm was certainly impressive. As far as I'm aware CAPE was around 2000-3000 j/kg and 500 hPa flow was ~30 knots. Low level shear was not great (850 hPa winds around 10-20 knots from the NE) but given the high CAPE and possible interactions with boundries a tornado certainly doesn't seem impossible.

Later that day another supercell formed further north. This storm formed in an area of much lower CAPE however wind shear appeared to be quite favouable for supercells. Here's a model sounding for Bileola at 09Z-

http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h19/mmcctt/08112006_09_Biloela.png

CAPE may well be underestimated as there was a dp of about 20C at this time in Gladstone, but in anycase CAPE was still much lower then down south. I'm interested in what caused this impressive increase in shear. For the 850 mb winds there is a small area of 30-35kt winds converging west of Gladstone. Then for the 300 mb winds there is a small area of weak winds and divergent flow coming from that area. What is responsible for this? I cannot explain it. This feature was absent at 03Z if thats any help. I would be interested in peoples opinions.

850 mb winds-
http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h19/mmcctt/09Z850winds.png

300 mb winds-
http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h19/mmcctt/09Z300winds.png

On to the 15/11/06, I agree the shear during the morning of that that day was more favourable because of the greater degree of turning in the lower levels. Interesting to hear that a warm front may of been involved. Warm fronts are rare in Australia but so are low level jets like the one present during the morning of that day so that would make sense.

Michael

Offline Michael Bath

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #10 on: 27 March 2007, 04:22:17 AM »
More data - GFS Analysis charts are available for the dates being discussed.


Wednesday 08/11/2006 06z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000

Wednesday 08/11/2006 12z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000



Wednesday 15/11/2006 00z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000

Wednesday 15/11/2006 06z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000



Saturday 16/12/2006 06z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000



Wednesday 07/02/2007 06z

Instability: CAPE / Lifted Index

Relative Humidity: 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 1000

Temperature: 0300 / 0500 / 07000850 / 1000

Winds (knots): 0200 / 0300 / 0500 / 0600 / 0700 / 0850 / 0925 / 1000

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Macca

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #11 on: 28 March 2007, 07:21:50 AM »
Yes there were indications of a possible tornado but why is there nothing verified, no damage surveys, photographs, videos - so much technology - very little verification. David, did you by any chance discuss this event in some more detail with one of the locals or something?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

I'm not sure.  I might make enquiries with the QLD BoM as to whether they actually did anything to verify any of these reports.  It would be quite disappointing if they did not do any damage surveys of these events.  I don't see how they (or us for that matter) will learn anything if they don't do proper assessments.  I can understand the lack of photos/video to an extent given the low population densities in the areas affected on the 8/11 and 15/11, but the lack of surveys (or at least some sort of confirmation from the BoM is a little surprising.

Macca

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Re: The 2006/2007 storm season in review
« Reply #12 on: 28 March 2007, 10:14:46 AM »
Macca,

All reports of tornadoes are checked in the United States and they have far more reports to deal with. My comments in this case merely asks was there some form of verification. Thanks for the offer to check.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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