Very nice structure here but seems to be moving into unfavorable waters temp wise.. Check out the size of the eye! A bit of info et al...
WDPN31 PGTW 011500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W WARNING NR17//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT 115 KTS, WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS COMPENSATING FOR DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EASTOF JAPAN. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVELTROUGH WHICH WAS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN YESTERDAY HAS PULLED OUT.HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AT 500 MB SHOWS A BREAK REMAINS BETWEEN THE STR EAST OF JAPAN AND A SECOND RIDGE WEST OF OKINAWA.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NMEAST-NORTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KTSIS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.0/6.5 BY PGTW AND 6.0/6.0 BY RJTD.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST REASONING FOR TY 05W HAS NOT CHANGED. B. TY 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS EAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU NEAR TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE COLLECTIVELY SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST TWO WARNING CYCLES, AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE STR WILL NOT BUILD AS FAR WEST AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE STR MAY BE HINDERED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST NEAR TAIWAN BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 IN EASTERNKYUSHU, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36. TY 05W ISFORECAST TO CROSS THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGIN ACCELERATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 40N. THEAVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH EGRR REPRESENTING THE OUTLIER INITIATING THE POLEWARD TURN EARLY AND MOVING THE SYSTEM FAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 48.
Courtesy of the JTWC
Mike
