Topic: Hurricane Jimena heading for Baja California

[australiasevereweather]

Hurricane Jimena heading for Baja





As of this morning, hurricane Jimena remains a powerful category 4 hurricane just south of the Baja Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and a minimum central pressure of 940 mb.  As is typically the case, the convection around the center exploded overnight, but the cloud tops have warmed a little this morning, and the eye has become a little less organized as well.  This is likely due to diurnal cycling of the convection, as well as an eyewall replacement cycle, and thus Jimena will likely continue these slight intensity fluctuations over the next 24-48 hours.  The NHC mentions that water temperatures will cool slightly (but still should be plenty warm for intensification), and the storm will encounter some southwesterly shear after 24 hours, which could cause the hurricane to weaken a little prior to landfall - but still should be a major hurricane (official forecast has 115 knots at landfall up the west coast a ways from Cabo San Lucas). The Baja is a very difficult location to intercept hurricanes because of its extremely small width, so if a hurricane wobbles slightly it could miss land altogether.  We had first-hand experience with that frustration when trying to intercept Hurricane John in the southern Baja during 2006, when the powerful hurricane was heading straight for us up until a few hours before landfall, and then wobbled east causing the eye to make landfall well up the coast from our location.  We tried to scramble at the last second to make it to the eye, but treacherous cliff-side roads and mudslides impeded our path.  Check out the video of Hurricane John below:

Hurricane John video from Baja Peninsula, Mexico

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1021-hurricane-jimena-heading-for-baja
         

[australiasevereweather]

Dangerous Hurricane Jimena intensifies



Hurricane Jimena is on the verge of becoming a category 5 storm! As of the last advisory, the National Hurricane Center says:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR..

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD

OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH

ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST

ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

As such, hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for the entire Baja peninsula; Jimena is currently about 24 from making landfall. Right now it appears as though landfall may occur near Puerto San Carlos, which, given the topography, would be extremely vulnerable to the dangerous storm surge that is expected.






If Jimena moves inland as forecast on the 5-day cone, areas of southern Arizona and the Imperial Valley of California could be greatly impacted as well. The potential for tornadoes would exist with the outter bands (!), but the main threat would likely be flash flooding from heavy rains.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/37-hurricanes/1022-dangerous-hurricane-jimena-intensifies