Topic: Coastal trough and storms SE Aust: 25th January 2008

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

There seems to be an upper level feature over central eastern NSW at the moment giving another possibility of storms - some more rainfall as the storms track westward. The instability seems maximumized around the Hunter with more ideal wind flow aloft there. The instability then becomes enhanced in the vicinity of the Sydney region with surface lifted index model values of -4 to -5. CAPE values about the afternoon and evening period again reflects this latter instability near Sydney.

We'll see what happens but based on the moisture profile and winds aloft, heavy rainfall perhaps tiny hail under more intense uprafts are the most likely scenario.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Peter J]

Certainly this trough is creating a few chase possibilities. It has also provided a few severe thunderstorm warnings across eastern Vic as well. There was one flash flood warning issued late last night in East Gippsland and the Alpine region, with a few slow moving storms present out there.
Also the humidity levels here (in Vic) are also climbing too, which may create a better atmosphere for goos storm development later on today.
I hope the same happens in Sydney. Worth investigating.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

Recent storms in the last half hour in Central district and NW & NE Suburbs of Melbourne Vic, have brought some significant downpours in places like:

Mooroolbark 3mm in 15 mins,
Melton 30mm in 35 mins,
Melbourne Airport 15mm in 20mins.

BoM has issued Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central, West Gippsland and East Gippsland districts for possible flash flooding as of 3.45pm today.

This trough continues to throw some surprises.

Wonder how its going in Central Eastern NSW?

Big Pete

[Jimmy Deguara]

Pete,

I saw a localised feature pasing through Victoria and this may have set off the storns you mentioned. Eastern NSW north of Sydney has had some rain and slowly drifts down towards the easrtn parts of Sydney based on the latest radar imagery.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Richary]

Hope there hasn't been too much in it N of Newcastle, was planning on doing some camping in Barrington Tops area over the long weekend. Rain and wet ground makes it less fun in the swag! Looking at the radar it's getting a bit, might make the 4WD trails more fun I suppose.

[Michael Bath]

Some moderate falls occurred on parts of the Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers. Top fall in 24 hours to 9am on 26th Jan from the BoM is 96mm at Evans Head, most of which fell between 730pm and 11pm. The majority of the other significant falls appear to be around the 50 to 70mm mark:

eg: BALLINA AP 55, YAMBA  71, DORRIGO  55,  KEMPSEY   52     

Only 7mm at my place and no storms to report, though there were plenty of large cumulus about.  It has rained everyday here since 27th Dec !