Topic: TC Nicholas WA Coast: from Feb 13 2008

[Peter J]

According to BoM details, as of 0000 UTC, TC Nicholas formed off the WA coast, as a CAT1. It has the capability of reaching Cat3 or Cat4 sometime over the weekend. The Pilbara coast is likely to be this TC's target early next week. At the mo' the cyclone has winds around 100kph and gaining strength, and pressure of 980hPa and dropping. It is also a fast developing and slow moving system, and it is also erratic in its behaviour so  far.

Mike - what's the strongest TC you have ever encountered live?

Big Pete.

[Richary]

Interesting how it has done a loop and is now heading south. For my friends in SA where I lived until 4 months ago, I hope this does cross the coast (not causing too much damage of course) and drifts southwards with some westerly pressure to cause some nice rain there. It's happened in the past, but the last year or two the ones that looked promising never got that far sout to give the place some much needed rain and top up the dams (as well as water the gardens, farms etc). Shame the 1km MTSAT image from Brisbane Stormchasers has been off the air since the 9th, would like to see how it is developing.

[Michael Bath]

Remember you can get the 1km VIS directly from the source:

http://163.251.101.53/cgi-bin/main.pl?aust

and archives are available from Strike one:

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.select&displayitem=2

[David Brodrick]

I just set up a tracking RADAR composite for Nicholas with the JTWC forecast trajectory overlaid.
http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/feature.cgi?feature=nicholas

I'm not sure how well it'll work yet, tomorrow might turn up a few bugs, but in theory it should automatically pop up for any future cyclone that comes within 350km of a RADAR. I'd like to overlay AWS observations and some towns but probably won't get a chance this time 'round.

Cheers all. Time for bed :-)
  Dave

[Michael Bath]

Very clever Dave - is this using the 256km scale images from the BoM site with some adjustment to the colours?  Do you have access to 512km scale images at all ?

MB

[Jimmy Deguara]

Is there any indication on the intensity of this tropical cyclone at this point in time?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[David Brodrick]

Yup it's just based of the 256km RADAR. 512km would be sooooo nice for this.

It's also good that this RADAR is near Port Hedland and Dampier (unless you happen to live there!). When I first wrote most of this code for the previous cyclone it spent most of it's time near part-time RADARs which really detracted from the animation.

It's had a few hiccups over the last hour, I've been working on the code to smoothly guide the centre of the image to the appropriate spot when the forecast trajectory updates, rather than suddenly step. Hopefully it's right now, we'll see at 0300 UTC.

The 2100 UTC JTWC update estimated the max sustained winds at 75kt with 1-min gusts to 90kt. BOM list it as Cat 2, expected to reach Cat 4 before making landfall.

Cheers,
  Dave

[Michael Bath]

TC Nicholas has intensified quite a bit today and is expected to reach category 4 before landfall. The BoM forecast has the TC crossing the coast near Exmouth. JTWC has it tracking just offshore down the West Coast.

Attached satpic is 06 UTC 1km VIS

[Peter J]

Further to MB's post, TC Nicholas has intensified to a severe Cat 3 storm, and has decided to move a little away from the coast, until tuesday or so (by forecasts), then may come back and hit Exmouth and lower areas of mid-west coastal WA.
Not a small storm by any means.

Big Pete