Topic: Darwin storm events 2009/10 season

[Colin Maitland]

I enjoyed reading those reports and looking at the photo's Mike. Spectacular IC's in those shots too. Looks like you are having a better season than us deprived southerners

Thanks

Col

[Mike]

Storms still rampant up here.  The tropical low did not develop into much as everyone may know but it did bring the monsoon down to us and we had sizable rainfall from it.  Darwin had around 380mm in three days, my area alone copped 180mm - very wet!  Chasing prior to the monsoon has been fairly good.  CAPE values have been in the 3000-3400 inland and coastal but not holding much during the night, so lots of day time stuff.  Most of the storms have come early morning which is kinda okay for me since I work nights.  The monsoon is set reforming in the Arafura Sea and will be with us by next Wednesday...much to the digust of my wife who particularly does not like the constant wet weather!  Another weak low is in the Gulf (1005) by then - same scenario as last month - so we'll see what pans out, but chasing per se will be prior to the monsoon again.

Have included a selection of daytime and nighttime stuff whilst chasing..enjoy!























Structures have been really nice during the day when the daytime heating is around...explosive crowns once the cap breaks during the arvo...the rural area during November/Dec had four days of small hail with discreet storms..something I've never seen happen in such succession.  Thanks to Michael's EWN texts I was in the right location for those storms to be severe warned!!

The bolt below missed apparently what is the world's largest yacht...I was hoping for it to strike one of the three masts..dang it..it missed!









There's hail in this sucker!




Hector over the Tiwi Island...nice to get him on a clear day - truly an awesome sight!

[Mathew Townsend]

Excellent pictures!

[Michael Bath]

Nice set of photographs Mike. I particularly like the 4th one down - something about country roads leading into a storm.  And the last Hector one too is great. Thanks
Michael

[Mike]

I'm a sucker for roads leading into storms...gives you something to follow.  Decent storm this afternoon which was outflow dominant and collided with a convergence zone on the coast...just so much rain it was unreal...there were plenty of bolts but with the rain it was very hard to capture any...not for lack of trying! Will keep everyone up to date with what's happening over the coming days!

[Mike]

Stereotype conditions once again on the cards for this week.  The monsoon trough has decided to reform and is strengthening once again.  Things will be wet and windy by Wednesday arvo.  A weak low is embedded again in the Gulf and may form into something by mid-week also with the invigorated monsoonal flow.  As at 2pm today convection is going ballistic with the trough on the coast and rural areas are experiencing some very heavy rain from cells forming in clusters.  Forecast is for arvo and overnight storms so maybe, just maybe they'll hold on long enough till dark so I can get some photos.  If the cells behind my place gather some decent wedging I'll nab a few pics also.

latest single image from Darwin Airport

single image from Berrimah radar

There's a big difference in reflectivity in comparison...the airport likes N and NE but does not highlight the surrounding cells that much, the Berrimah radar has the opposite effect...no wonder i find it hard to pinpoint a location sometimes...

Was going to post the sounding but it apparently is incomplete with only the DP's traced..darn it, would have been pretty neat given the observations outside.  Quite a lot of building of cells and no shortage of Pileus amongst new growth.  Cloud cover is a little overcast in places, but there's enough blue sky in some areas to pick the best cells moving around.

Convergence GIF is quite interesting, two distinct areas of wind profiles.

[Mike]

It's hard enough chasing pulse storms up here but even harder keeping track of the monsoonal character.  There's a weak 1005 low in the Gulf of Carpentaria and has been sitting there for about three days.  Have checked the wind profiles for the coming days and low and behold by next week the low is right over the top of us...with one exception.  BoM updated their 2pm three day outlook and have upgraded the monsoon.  It was supposed to be weakening but now is reforming in the Arafura and Timor seas and the low has been given a 50% or moderate chance of forming into a cyclone.

Thinks back to Ingrid and Monica which did the same thing re track...NE, then SW, then west.....might be one to watch once again and added to that an 8m tide...storm surge anyone?

profile for Tuesday 6:30pm http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast.html?region=darwin&datem=cst&date=2010011909&gribdate=2010011400&chart=shear_700#stormcast

BoM's view

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Friday: very low,
Saturday: low,
Sunday: moderate.