Topic: Major Hurricane Earl threatening U.S. East Coast

[Guest]

Major Hurricane Earl threatening U.S. East Coast!
         



Hurricane Earl strengthened to category 4 intensity overnight, as convection exploded and became more symmetric about the center.  The NHC currently estimates maximum sustained winds of 115 knots in the eyewall with a minimum central pressure of 939 mb, the latter of which has increased slightly given the new eyewall replacement cycle that initiated earlier this morning.  Eyewall replacement is very common with major hurricanes such as Earl, which occurs as the original eye shrinks in size with rapid intensification of the inner convection, and a second eye wall of wider diameter develops, eventually taking over as the primary eye wall of the hurricane as the inner eye becomes unstable and disappears.  Hurricanes typically weaken slightly during this "hand-off" between concentric eye walls, before intensifying once again as a single, dominant eyewall prevails.  Hurricane Katrina (a little over 5 years ago during another La Nina season) was undergoing a similar eyewall replacement cycle as it was making landfall in southeast Louisiana, and was just about to re-intensify rapidly as it was coming ashore on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, thus believe it or not could have been an even worse case scenario if this cycle had occurred earlier.  Different from Katrina, Hurricane Earl is forecast to recurve to the north and eventually northeast over the next 72+ hours around the western side of a strong North Atlantic subtropical ridge, and east of a midlatitude trough which will traverse the northern U.S. through the weekend.  Still though, recent model guidance has inched the major hurricane closer and closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks (around 66-72 hours), and even New England thereafter.  Since Earl will not encounter detrimental upper-level wind shear until beyond 48 hours, the NHC expects the 'cane to maintain category 4 status for the next few days as the center rides the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The latest GFDL run and NHC forecast track for hurricane Earl are shown below.  As the storm turns to the north near the Outer Banks, however, dry continental air will likely be pulled into the circulation, and a slow transition to extratropical cyclone will begin as the forward speed accelerates toward New England.  The track of Hurricane Earl actually reminds me of the first hurricane I ever intercepted -- Hurricane Floyd near Cape Fear, NC, but I think Earl will pass a little further east, and likely stay off-shore (at least until Nova Scota).  We will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Earl, and if it looks like a landfall is imminent, TVN will deploy in the Dominator.  Stay tuned!



         

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1268-major-hurricane-earl-threatening-us-east-coast
         

[Antonio (stormboy)]

the hurricane can be seen from here http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/australia-vis-satellite-loop.html

it certainly looks huge.

Antonio

[Steven]

Where's the hurricane on that map? It only shows the Australian quadrant.

[Michael Bath]

Yeah, the wrong link has been pasted - start here:
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/satellite/goes/tropical-flash-index.html

then click tropical West Atlantic AVN etc

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Where's the hurricane on that map? It only shows the Australian quadrant.

apologies was meant to paste the one below

Antonio

[Steven]

OK thanks for that. Silly me should have navigated around to it.

[Guest]

Hurricane Earl a powerful category 4 storm!
         

Hurricane Earl looks absolutely textbook on satellite after undergoing an eye wall replacement cycle, with a perfectly circular large eye and 140 mph winds.  The latest dropsonde revealed the minimum central pressure had dropped to 930 mb with sutained winds measured at 137 knots just below 7000 feet!!!  I really thought the anomalously dry air around the hurricane would really cause problems, but clearly this has not been the case..  The convection around tropical cyclones often explodes after dark given the increased relative warmth of the underlying ocean, thus I wouldn't be surprised if the peak intensity of Earl is achieved overnight tonight, before beginning a gradual weakening trend.  A recent wobble to the north has resulted in a slight eastward shift in the forecast track, with the NHC showing the center of Earl just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks by late tomorrow night.  It is still very possible that Earl could wobble slightly to the west, which would bring devastating conditions to the NC Coast.  Stay tuned for updates on this continually evolving situation!
         

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1270-hurricane-earl-a-powerful-category-4-storm
         

[Guest]

Earl at 145 mph!  Now surging north!
         



Hurricane Earl has intensified even further overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (125 knots) and minimum central pressure of 932 mb.  The motion has also increased to 16 knots at a near due-northerly direction as of around 9 am EDT, which is very good news for the residents of the North Carolina Outer Banks and New England.  Hurricane warnings remain in effect for the North Carolina coast, where a storm surge of 3-5 feet is anticipated over the Outer Banks and Chesapeake Bay.  Hurricane watches have been issued for the coasts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts, as the center of Earl is expected to be right over Nantucket Island at around 2 am Saturday while barreling toward the Canadian Maritimes.  Yesterday, I looked at the water vapor imagery and noticed that Earl was enveloped in a massive reservoir of dry air aloft, with multiple dry-air intrusions into the circulation of the hurricane, and I thought this would hinder further intensification.  However, exactly the opposite transpired overnight as Hurricane Earl intensified into a category 4 storm!  The sea surface temperature anomaly map at left likely sheds some light as to how this hurricane overcame the dry air, as warm SST anomalies of 2-4 degrees C reside across the entire length of the already relatively warm Gulf stream just off the east coast of North America.  In fact, the raw SSTs show the warmest oceanic heat content just ahead of Earl off the Mid-Atlantic which will help Hurricane Earl maintain major hurricane status for the next 24 hours or so despite increasing upper-level wind shear.  Last night, the enhanced upper-level divergence between the subtropical anticyclone to the east and the advancing mid-latitude trough to the northwest likely aided in this intensification.  Stay tuned for updates throughout the day today, and also during landfall overnight, and be sure to check out TornadoVideos.net/live for any TVN chasers streaming live video...

         

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1271-earl-at-145-mph-now-surging-north
         

[Guest]

Near 50 foot waves reported by buoy in Hurricane Earl



Incredible data from the eye wall of Hurricane Earl was archived by buoy  #41046 early this morning, located just offshore of the North Carolina  Outer Banks!  A peak wind gust of 101 mph coincident with near 50 foot  waves was measured in the northwest eye wall just after 4 am EDT, with a  sharp drop in wind speed to near 10 knots and a minimum pressure of a  little over 940 mb as the buoy entered the eye.  The plot from this buoy  is shown at left, with additional data available here: [url=http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046]http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046 [/url]


Wave heights such as these are quite typical of Atlantic Basin hurricanes, making their storm surges that much more dangerous with waves atop the general water level rise.  Thus, Hurricane Earl could have been much worse for the North Carolina Outer Banks given a more westward track.  Still though, a peak wind gust of 82 mph was reported at Oregon Inlet, NC, with around a 2-4 foot storm surge.  Relatively mild beach erosion and up to a foot of water on the highways was also reported lst night on the Outer Banks.  As anticipated for days, Hurricane Earl recurved and weakened substantially as dry air was entrained into the circulation during its approach last night, as well as increasing deep layer shear.  Currently, Earl is in the process of transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone, but still maintains category 1 hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots and a minimum central pressure of 961 mb.  The forward speed continues to increase (currently NNE at 18 knots) as the very large hurricane surges toward the southwest Nova Scotia coast.  Given the very large size of this tropical cyclone, with hurricane (tropical storm) force winds extending out 70 miles (205 miles) from the center, thus I wouldn't be surprised if the storm surge is quite severe especially in the inlets of Nova Scotia this weekend.  It looks like the hurricane force winds should remain offshore of Cape Cod, MA overnight, but Environment Canada has issued hurricane watches for parts of Nova Scotia.  The official statement from EC is as follows:


 

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12:00 pm STATEMENT FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA REGARDING EARL:

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Hurricane watches are posted for portions of Nova Scotia from Digby
down to Yarmouth and up to Halifax county and areas inland for the
possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts (120 to 130 km/h).  Gusts
of this speed would cause tree branches and limbs to break and some
trees to come down. That would result in downed utility lines and
related power failures. There would also be some damage to signage
..Roofing materials and building cladding. Wave impacts at the coast
in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and
Damage to infrastructure..Although the tides are running lowe (neap)
and the arrival time may be near low tide.

         

http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1273-near-50-foot-waves-reported-by-buoy-in-hurricane-earl