Topic: NSW / QLD / VIC / TAS Rain, Storms & Snow (incl Moama tornado): 9-12 August 2010

[Colin Maitland]

Over the last 3-4 days the GFS models have indicated there is a significant chance of good rain totals for next week, 9-12 of August 2010.

The synoptic charts shows a trough and a deep low pressure system that will intensify over the interior in a core of cold air. This in turn, should result in a wet, cold and windy week. Totals over 50+mm could be seen over some areas.

Col

[Harley Pearman]

Weather models are showing a significant rain event for Monday and Tuesday across eastern inland Australia (New South Wales, Queensland and large parts of Victoria) and clearing to the coast by Wednesday.

For New South Wales, GFS is showing falls of 10 to 30 mm across the inland slopes and plains stretching from the South West Slopes to the North West Slopes of the state. The GFS is not suggesting significant rainfall across the far west of the state.

The Bureau of Meteorology Land and Water "Cumulative 4 Day Model" for 8 to 12 August (Produced 8/8/10 and attached below) does suggest good rainfall across Eastern Queensland and far North East New South Wales of 50 to 100 mm as well as general rains of 10 to 25 mm across the slopes and plains of New South Wales. Heavier falls of 25 to 50 mm are suggested across North East New South Wales such as the North West Slopes and New England as well as for a small area in southern New South Wales. The model suggests little rain for far western New South Wales and the east coast of the state.

The model also shows reasonable falls for Central Victoria and North East Victoria from this system. 

Harley Pearman

[Michael Thomas]

Looking like quite an interesting event. Might even see a few storms around on Tuesday. Wind shear will be quite impressive along almost the entire east coast Qld, even up into the tropics. Though it looks like the major feature will be a large rain band moving through eastern Qld. With some clearing/heating maybe we will see a few storms but I think that the poor low/mid level lapse rates and lack of CAPE will really limit things. I might be wrong though.

I will throw this out there too but I think down around the South West Slopes and Plains and Riverina area (and adjacent parts of Victoria) might be worth keeping an eye on if the latest GFS is anyting to go on. This area is close the the centre of the 500 mbar low and on the right exist region of a strong 500 mbar low. In addition it also appears as is a warm front sitting somewhere around or south of the NSW/Vic border. If there is some clearing to allow for some heating with dew points around 10C then CAPE should be ~500 j/kg. Not fantastic but this CAPE is fairly compacted due to steep lapse rates and a low EL.

Michael

[Antonio (stormboy)]

well it looks like late Tuesday night around 9 -12 SE QLD and NE NSW will be having a very very windy night as you can see below.

Antonio.

[Michael Bath]

I've added VIC and TAS to the thread subject as the models have consistently forecast good falls for those states including Melbourne and Hobart. An East Coast Low over eastern TAS forecast during Wednesday is ideal for good falls in those areas.

Also on the cards is snow for parts of the NSW Northern Tablelands. The models have been fairly consistent with this as well with 850 hPa temps below 2C and 850 hPa heights around 1440 metres from early evening Wednesday and well into Thursday. Moisture does look good until mid morning Thursday.


Antonio - those are winds at 850hPa not the surface.

[Harley Pearman]

Thunderstorms have been developing across far north western and inland northern New South Wales throughout the afternoon of 9/8/2010. The affected areas are mainly west of Cobar and Bourke and roughly east of White Cliffs.

The GPATS Lightning tracker from 6 pm to 6 pm 8/8/10 to 9/8/10 shows 1,683 lightning flashes within the sphere of New South Wales with a majority of that across the far west and north west of the state. Peak activity was between 1 pm and 6 pm with the period 2 pm to 3 pm showing the highest number of strikes.

There is cloud, shower and continuing thunderstorm activity north of Griffith at 8 pm 9/8/10 and cloud is spreading south. However the majority of the thunderstorm activity is still across the northern central areas of the state.

Further, the GFS models are showing some good falls of rain across large areas of Victoria at least within the range of 25 to 50 mm throughout the event with heavier falls centred around and near Melbourne and on and near the north east highlands.


Harley Pearman

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Antonio - those are winds at 850hPa not the surface.

My apologies, do you have any surface wind maps i can look at?

Also here in Ballina it is very windy at the moment and drizzly for about 30mins now. bring on the rain!

Antonio.

[Kristy Norman]

We copped a ripper storm last night at about 10:30pm.
Only got 6mm in rain but the HAIL!!!
It started off just hailing, no rain, and some of it was the size of a two dollar coin.
The lightning was constant flashing for about half an hour and the thunder shook the windows!
More storms coming now, thunder is getting louder.
Might be a good day down here!

[Colin Maitland]

My apologies, do you have any surface wind maps i can look at?

Also here in Ballina it is very windy at the moment and drizzly for about 30mins now. bring on the rain!

Antonio.

G'day Antonio,

Go to WZ site http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/

Then scroll down to the Surface Temperature Wind charts, you should see these chart (ie  http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/index.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mso=0&mc=sfc&focus=mc)

Cheers
 
Col

[Michael Bath]

Kristy - looks like that storm cell targeted you pretty much:

128km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 10:00 09/08/2010 to 15:00 09/08/2010 UTC



Antonio, you can also plot custom maps including surface winds from the GFS plotter:

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/gfs_plot.html

MB

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Collin & Michael thanks for the information and the links, on the topic now it is very windy and rainy here at the moment i think heavier rain is about to rain down on us within the next hour as it is now near tweed heads i think Ballina/Byron are going to cop it later, this morning it was so heavy that you could not see the houses across the road so that was quiet amazing to see. one bad thing with the wind so far is i dont think my rainfall readings are so accurate due to the rain falling sideways? the readings for me are 19.2mm from 9am to 9am YESTERDAY and today so far 0.3mm right now our backyard looks like a giant mud bath.

if you would like to see minute to minute rainfall data for the Ballina coastal region click below on my banner to see my weather stations obs will be on until midnight tonight!

Antonio

[Antonio (stormboy)]

a quick update:

latest wind gust 61kmh ENE

Rain since 9am 34.2mm

it is just bucketing down and the radar barley shows 2 colors up so i guess its because the clouds are very low also compared to Ballina AP 5- 6ks inland we are copping it.

[Harley Pearman]

Rainfall for 10/8/2010

An isolated thunderstorm cell near Yarrawonga at 1 pm appears to be dropping some heavy showers in the vicinity of the town. The towns weather station has recorded 11 mm of rain from 9 am to 1 pm. Additionally Wangaratta has had 18 mm in the same period. Some moderate to heavy showers with some thunderstorm activity features across south west New South Wales.

Good overnight widespread rainfalls of 5 to 30 mm has occurred across a wide swath of the slopes and plains of New South Wales from the north west to the south west and falls continue. The best falls for the 24 hours to 9 am 10/8/2010 include 39 mm at Mt Kaputar, 28 mm at Mudgee and Orange, 26 mm at Coonamble and an isolated 25 mm fall at Deniliquin.

Northern Victoria roughly east of Swan Hill including Shepparton, Wangaratta region and Echuca received at least 10 to 18 mm for the 24 hours to 9 am 10/8/2010.

Here in Sydney, rainfall is light but prolonged. At Blacktown 3.6 mm fell before 9 am and another 3.5 mm has fallen to 1 pm. Rainfall has not been significant but low cloud and light rain has made August 10 2010 a cold dreary day.

Harley Pearman

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Just another quick update until later on:

Rain has finally become lighter in a way

the wind is terrible some pot plants flipped over as well as the tree in the park next door loosing a branch.

Antonio.

[Kristy Norman]

Some photos of a nice little storm that came through this afternoon, facing north from the house. Nice lightning and small hail.

There have been storms all day in the area and I would imagine some good rainfall totals, especially around around Yarrawonga.
 
Edited to add....Just saw on channel SEVEN news someone has taken a photo of an awesome tornado near Echuca. Wow!!