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Author Topic: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010  (Read 26188 times)

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Offline Steven

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NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« on: 27 September 2010, 12:00:52 AM »
Hi all,

BoM remains optimistic about the next few days ahead, so please discuss.
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #1 on: 27 September 2010, 06:36:03 AM »
Instability appears to be fairly widespread, mainly across the eastern half of QLD today. Inland N NSW appears it will dry out with just the NE of the state in for a chance. 24/17 here at present with a lot of high cloud and scattered cumulus.

The shear depicted on the Brisbane sounding is quite light and the uppers are a little warm.

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Offline nzstorm

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #2 on: 27 September 2010, 08:36:09 AM »
Todays Brisbane 00Z observed sounding has the mid level lapse rates at 4.5C which is quite a stable number.
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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #3 on: 27 September 2010, 12:54:05 PM »
Storm Warning For Central West QLD again. On BSCH stormcast this morning, Central QLD looked to have the best chance of anywhere for storms to ignite.

Tuesday seems a better chance for storms in the SEQ.

Is any body else having troubles with Sounding analysis on the BSCH site, I have lost all data on the airport observation page and cant change temps or dew points for the mere fact the page is blank?. I have Gold membership from being in ASWA. The service seem to have dropped out about 2 weeks ago. I still have summary of the skewT.

BOMS warning

For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Central West Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:36 pm Sunday, 26 September 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are possible within the warning area and may produce damaging winds and large hailstones over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Longreach, Winton, Barcaldine, Blackall, Evesham Station and Muttaburra.


Col
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #4 on: 28 September 2010, 05:34:31 AM »
What page(s) are you referring to Col ?

Mid and upper levels temps (700 to 300hPa on Bris sounding) have warmed a bit across SE QLD since last night which will inhibit action. Looks quite nice over inland NSW and QLD on the Moree and Charleville soundings so expecting some decent storms out there.



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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #5 on: 28 September 2010, 06:39:57 AM »
Hi Michael,

I need to correct myself here, it is part of the Australian Weather Monitor program that you can download and access as part of the ASWA membership.

 From the main page you click
weather-
        forecast-
                  sounding analysis.

Although I receive a summary of the soundings, the observation page(skew T) is blank, and it was on this page that you can change the temps and dew points to recalibrate the summary page. All was working well up to approx 2 weeks ago. Membership is due Apr so it has not expired. Dont know if it is a technical hitch and if any one else is facing a similar problem, or if it is a problem on my side.

Cheers

Col.
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Offline Michael Thomas

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #6 on: 28 September 2010, 06:42:22 AM »
Classic case of GFS getting it wrong today. If you were to trust the computer model you would not be expecting storms west of the ranges in NSW due to lack of instability. GFS has a CAPE of 0-200 j/kg where in reality it is more like 1000 j/kg. This mainly because of better low-level moisture than forecast. For example, it is currently 24/17 in Moree whereas GFS has it at 24/13. No severe storm warning out yet but I would think that there is a least the possiblity of strong outflow winds due to the dry mid levels and strong mid/upper level winds.

Michael
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #7 on: 28 September 2010, 07:00:43 AM »
Hi Col, have a look at this thread then contact the guys as per this page


Northerly winds have freshened here with some high based cumulus congestus about. A lot of shower/storm activity inland - wonder if anything can dominate.
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Offline Michael Thomas

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #8 on: 28 September 2010, 07:53:30 AM »
96 km/hr wind gust recorded at Coonamble at 1:30 pm. Severe storm warning out now for damaging winds.
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #9 on: 28 September 2010, 07:54:44 AM »
Not much happening here at the moment apart from allot of Convection to out west southwest and a northerly winds and 25.7C 72% humidity.

Looking at the Namoi radar you can see many many cells you can also see something trying close to SE QLD and the northern northern tablelands.

Antonio.
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #10 on: 28 September 2010, 08:57:56 AM »
just had a question this is quiet weird this radar http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml

is showing 2 patches of rain although Michael Baths webcam and my eyes can not see not much more than specky cloud is the radar wrong? i live 20ks away from this blob and its very clear sky in all directions..

Antonio.
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Offline Karina Roberts (slavegirl)

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #11 on: 28 September 2010, 09:59:54 AM »
a severe warning has been issued for qld now, it seems like storms are firing up as the afternoon progresses. Its currently looking very interestiong out beaudesert way as well now
 : Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Maranoa and Warrego Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:51 pm Monday, 27 September 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall,
flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several
hours. Locations which may be affected include Rolleston, Injune and Mantuan
Downs.



Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 6:55 pm.
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #12 on: 28 September 2010, 10:06:53 AM »
Antonio - that large "rain" area was showing up on Stapylton, Marburg and Grafton radars but not sure what it was. It came across from Warwick where the same thing was reported. Maybe a big area of bugs a couple of ks up
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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #13 on: 28 September 2010, 10:38:34 AM »
Thanks very much Michael for the help. Very much appreciated.

As Slavegirl mentioned, STW again for the central inland of QLD.
Its interesting at the begining of a storm season watching the possible trends taking place.

Forecast winds for QLD tomorrow are West to Northwesterly with a top of 28C. BOM is going for possible storms, Unfortunately I am not over excited at the moment, the set up is not quite there for the SE of Qld for severe storms. (In saying that, everything will change and I will have to eat my words  ;D)   

Colin
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: NE NSW / E QLD Storms: 26-29 Sept 2010
« Reply #14 on: 28 September 2010, 11:27:49 AM »
Some nice development in the Kyogle Casino Region at the moment with a easterly movement areas in between Evans head and Byron bay may be in for a thundery rain patch tonight but most likely at most thundery rain.

Antonio.
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